Turing Test: Mindless Game?

The Turing Test, originally configured for a human to distinguish between an unseen man and unseen woman through a text-based conversational measure of gender, is the ultimate test for thinking. So conceived Alan Turing when he replaced the woman with a machine. His assertion, that once a machine deceived a human judge into believing that they were the human, then that machine should be attributed with intelligence. But is the Turing Test nothing more than a mindless game? We present results from recent Loebner Prizes, a platform for the Turing Test, and find that machines in the contest appear conversationally worse rather than better, from 2004 to 2006, showing a downward trend in highest scores awarded to them by human judges. Thus the machines are not thinking in the same way as a human intelligent entity would.

Radiometric dating of the Siloam Tunnel, Jerusalem

The historical credibility of texts from the Bible is often debated when compared with Iron Age archaeological finds (refs. 1, 2 and references therein). Modern scientific methods may, in principle, be used to independently date structures that seem to be mentioned in the biblical text, to evaluate its historical authenticity. In reality, however, this approach is extremely difficult because of poor archaeological preservation, uncertainty in identification, scarcity of datable materials, and restricted scientific access into well-identified worship sites. Because of these problems, no well-identified Biblical structure has been radiometrically dated until now. Here we report radiocarbon and U-Th dating of the Siloam Tunnel(3-10), proving its Iron Age II date; we conclude that the Biblical text presents an accurate historic record of the Siloam Tunnel's construction. Being one of the longest ancient water tunnels lacking intermediate shafts(11,12), dating the Siloam Tunnel is a key to determining where and when this technological breakthrough took place. Siloam Tunnel dating also refutes a claim(13) that the tunnel was constructed in the second century BC.

Greening the United Nations' Human Development Index?

The Human Development Index (HDI) introduced by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in 1990 has helped facilitate widespread debate amongst development researchers, practitioners and policy makers. The HDI is an aggregate index, calculated on an annual basis by the UNDP and published in its Human Development Reports, comprising measures of three components deemed by them to be central to development: W income (the gross domestic product per capita), (ii) education (adult literacy rate) and (iii) health (life expectancy at birth). The results of calculating the HDI are typically presented as country/regional league tables, and provide a quick means for policy makers and others to judge performance. Perhaps partly because of the relative simplicity of the index, the HDI has managed to achieve a level of acceptance and use amongst politicians and policy makers that has yet to emerge with any indicator of sustainability. Indeed, despite its existence for 11 years, including nine years after the Rio Earth Summit, the HDI has not even been modified to take on board wider issues of sustainability. This paper will critically examine the potential for 'greening' the HDI so as to include environmental and resource-consumption dimensions. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

HESS Opinions ``Ensembles, uncertainty and flood prediction''

Ensemble predictions are being used more frequently to model the propagation of uncertainty through complex, coupled meteorological, hydrological and coastal models, with the goal of better characterising flood risk. In this paper, we consider the issues that we judge to be important when designing and evaluating ensemble predictions, and make recommendations for the guidance of future research.

Some factors affecting variation in milk yield in crossbred dairy cows on smallholder farms in north-east Tanzania

A 2-year longitudinal survey was carried out to investigate factors affecting milk yield in crossbred cows on smallholder farms in and around an urban centre. Sixty farms were visited at approximately 2-week intervals and details of milk yield, body condition score (BCS) and heart girth measurements were collected. Fifteen farms were within the town (U), 23 farms were approximately 5 km from town (SU), and 22 farms approximately 10 km from town (PU). Sources of variation in milk yield were investigated using a general linear model by a stepwise forward selection and backward elimination approach to judge important independent variables. Factors considered for the first step of formulation of the model included location (PU, SU and U), calving season, BCS at calving, at 3 months postpartum and at 6 months postpartum, calving year, herd size category, source of labour (hired and family labour), calf rearing method (bucket and partial suckling) and parity number of the cow. Daily milk yield (including milk sucked by calves) was determined by calving year (p < 0.0001), calf rearing method (p = 0.044) and BCS at calving (p < 0.0001). Only BCS at calving contributed to variation in volume of milk sucked by the calf, lactation length and lactation milk yield. BCS at 3 months after calving was improved on farms where labour was hired (p = 0.041) and BCS change from calving to 6 months was more than twice as likely to be negative on U than SU and PU farms. It was concluded that milk production was predominantly associated with BCS at calving, lactation milk yield increasing quadratically from score 1 to 3. BCS at calving may provide a simple, single indicator of the nutritional status of a cow population.

Some factors affecting reproductive success in crossbred dairy cows on smallholder farms in coastal north-east Tanzania

A 2-year longitudinal survey was carried out to investigate factors affecting reproduction in crossbred cows on smallholder farms in and around an urban centre. Sixty farms were visited at approximately 2-week intervals and details of reproductive traits and body condition score (BCS) were collected. Fifteen farms were within the town (U), 23 farms were approximately 5 km from town (SU), and 22 farms approximately 10 km from town (PU). Sources of variation in reproductive traits were investigated using a general linear model (GLM) by a stepwise forward selection and backward elimination approach to judge important independent variables. Factors considered for the first step of formulation of the model included location (PU, SU and U), type of insemination, calving season, BCS at calving, at 3 months postpartum and at 6 months postpartum, calving year, herd size category, source of labour (hired and family labour), calf rearing method (bucket and partial suckling) and parity number of the cow. The effects of the independent variables identified were then investigated using a non-parametric survival technique. The number of days to first oestrus was increased on the U site (p = 0.045) and when family labour was used (p = 0.02). The non-parametric test confirmed the effect of site (p = 0.059), but effect of labour was not significant. The number of days from calving to conception was reduced by hiring labour (p = 0.003) and using natural service (p = 0.028). The non-parametric test confirmed the effects of type of insemination (p = 0.0001) while also identifying extended calving intervals on U and SU sites (p = 0.014). Labour source was again non-significant. Calving interval was prolonged on U and SU sites (p = 0.021), by the use of AI (p = 0.031) and by the use of family labour (p = 0.001). The non-parametric test confirmed the effect of site (p = 0.008) and insemination type (p > 0.0001) but not of labour source. It was concluded that under favourable conditions (PU site, hired labour and natural service) calving intervals of around 440 days could be achieved.

Assessing the PhD: a constructive view of criteria

Research and informed debate reveals that institutional practices in relation to research degree examining vary considerably across the sector. Within a context of accountability and quality assurance/total quality management, the range and specificity of criteria that are used to judge doctoral work is of particular relevance. First, a review of the literature indicates that, although interest in and concern about the process is burgeoning, there is little empirical research published from which practitioners can draw guidance. The second part of the paper reviews that available research, drawing conclusions about issues that seem to pertain at a general level across disciplines and institutions. Lest the variation is an artefact of discipline difference, the third part of the paper focuses on a within discipline study. Criteria expected/predicted by supervisors are compared and contrasted with those anticipated and experienced by candidates and with those implemented and considered important by examiners. The results are disturbing.

The Nutritional Significance of Lipid Rafts

The structure, size, stability, and functionality of lipid rafts are still in debate, but recent techniques allowing direct visualization have characterized them in a wide range of cell types. Lipid rafts are potentially modifiable by diet, particularly (but not exclusively) by dietary fatty acids. However, it is not clear whether dietary polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are incorporated into raft lipids or whether their low affinity to cholesterol disallows this and causes phase separation from rafts and displacement of raft proteins. This review examines the potential for dietary modification of raft structure and function in the immune system, brain and retinal tissue, the gut, and in cancer cells. Although there is increasing evidence to suggest that membrane microdomains, and their modulation, have an impact in health and disease, it is too early to judge whether modulation of lipid rafts is responsible for the immunomodulatory effects of n-3 PUFA. In addition to dietary fatty acids, gangliosides and cholesterol may also modulate microdomains in a number of tissues, and recent work has highlighted sphingolipids in membrane microdomains as potential targets for inhibition of tumor growth by n-3 PUFA. The roles of fatty acids and gangliosides in cognitive development, age-related cognitive decline, psychiatric disorders, and Alzheimer's disease are poorly understood and require clarification, particularly with respect to the contribution of lipid rafts. The roles of lipid rafts in cancer, in microbial pathogenesis, and in insulin resistance are only just emerging, but compelling evidence indicates the growing importance of membrane microdomains in health and disease.

Passive verb morphology: the effect of phonotactics on passive comprehension in typically developing and grammatical-SLI children

In this study we explore the impact of a morphological deficit on syntactic comprehension. A self-paced listening task was designed to investigate passive sentence processing in typically developing (TD) children and children with Grammatical-Specific Language Impairment (G-SLI). Participants had to judge whether the sentence they heard matched a picture they were shown. Working within the framework of the Computational Grammatical Complexity Hypothesis, which stresses how different components of the grammar interact, we tested whether children were able to use phonotactic cues to parse reversible passive sentences of the form the X was verbed by Y We predicted that TD children would be able to use phonotactics to parse a form like touched or hugged as a participle, and hence interpret passive sentences correctly. This cue is predicted not be used by G-SLI children, because they have difficulty building complex morphological representations. We demonstrate that indeed TD, but not G-SLI, children are able to use phonotactics cues in parsing passive sentences. (C) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From base-rate to cumulative respect

The tendency to neglect base-rates in judgment under uncertainty may be "notorious," as Barbey & Sloman (B&S) suggest, but it is neither inevitable (as they document; see also Koehler 1996) nor unique. Here we would like to point out another line of evidence connecting ecological rationality to dual processes, the failure of individuals to appropriately judge cumulative probability.

Rich and famous: recognition-based judgment in the Sunday Times rich list

Recognition as a cue to judgment in a novel, multi-option domain (the Sunday Times Rich List) is explored. As in previous studies, participants were found to make use of name recognition as a cue to the presumed wealth of individuals. Names that were recognized were judged to be the richest name from amongst the set presented at above chance levels. This effect persisted across situations in which more than one name was recognized; recognition was used as an inclusion criterion for the sub-set of names to be considered the richest of the set presented. However, when the question was reversed, and a “poorest” judgment was required, use of recognition as an exclusion criterion was observed only when a single name was recognized. Reaction times when making these judgments also show a distinction between “richest” and “poorest” questions with recognition of none of the options taking the longest time to judge in the “richest” question condition and full recognition of all the names presented taking longest to judge in the “poorest” question condition. Implications for decision-making using simple heuristics are discussed.

An assessment of eye-gaze potential within immersive virtual environments

In collaborative situations, eye gaze is a critical element of behavior which supports and fulfills many activities and roles. In current computer-supported collaboration systems, eye gaze is poorly supported. Even in a state-of-the-art video conferencing system such as the access grid, although one can see the face of the user, much of the communicative power of eye gaze is lost. This article gives an overview of some preliminary work that looks towards integrating eye gaze into an immersive collaborative virtual environment and assessing the impact that this would have on interaction between the users of such a system. Three experiments were conducted to assess the efficacy of eye gaze within immersive virtual environments. In each experiment, subjects observed on a large screen the eye-gaze behavior of an avatar. The eye-gaze behavior of that avatar had previously been recorded from a user with the use of a head-mounted eye tracker. The first experiment was conducted to assess the difference between users' abilities to judge what objects an avatar is looking at with only head gaze being viewed and also with eye- and head-gaze data being displayed. The results from the experiment show that eye gaze is of vital importance to the subjects, correctly identifying what a person is looking at in an immersive virtual environment. The second experiment examined whether a monocular or binocular eye-tracker would be required. This was examined by testing subjects' ability to identify where an avatar was looking from their eye direction alone, or by eye direction combined with convergence. This experiment showed that convergence had a significant impact on the subjects' ability to identify where the avatar was looking. The final experiment looked at the effects of stereo and mono-viewing of the scene, with the subjects being asked to identify where the avatar was looking. This experiment showed that there was no difference in the subjects' ability to detect where the avatar was gazing. This is followed by a description of how the eye-tracking system has been integrated into an immersive collaborative virtual environment and some preliminary results from the use of such a system.

Eye gaze in virtual environments: evaluating the need and initial work on implementation

For efficient collaboration between participants, eye gaze is seen as being critical for interaction. Video conferencing either does not attempt to support eye gaze (e.g. AcessGrid) or only approximates it in round table conditions (e.g. life size telepresence). Immersive collaborative virtual environments represent remote participants through avatars that follow their tracked movements. By additionally tracking people's eyes and representing their movement on their avatars, the line of gaze can be faithfully reproduced, as opposed to approximated. This paper presents the results of initial work that tested if the focus of gaze could be more accurately gauged if tracked eye movement was added to that of the head of an avatar observed in an immersive VE. An experiment was conducted to assess the difference between user's abilities to judge what objects an avatar is looking at with only head movements being displayed, while the eyes remained static, and with eye gaze and head movement information being displayed. The results from the experiment show that eye gaze is of vital importance to the subjects correctly identifying what a person is looking at in an immersive virtual environment. This is followed by a description of the work that is now being undertaken following the positive results from the experiment. We discuss the integration of an eye tracker more suitable for immersive mobile use and the software and techniques that were developed to integrate the user's real-world eye movements into calibrated eye gaze in an immersive virtual world. This is to be used in the creation of an immersive collaborative virtual environment supporting eye gaze and its ongoing experiments. Copyright (C) 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.