Credit default swap (CDS) prediction model & trading strategy

This project focuses on the study of different explanatory models for the behavior of CDS security, such as Fixed-Effect Model, GLS Random-Effect Model, Pooled OLS and Quantile Regression Model. After determining the best fitness model, trading strategies with long and short positions in CDS have been developed. Due to some specifications of CDS, I conclude that the quantile regression is the most efficient model to estimate the data. The P&L and Sharpe Ratio of the strategy are analyzed using a backtesting analogy, where I conclude that, mainly for non-financial companies, the model allows traders to take advantage of and profit from arbitrages.

Distribution of the human intracellular serpin protease inhibitor 8 in human tissues.

Ovalbumin-like serine protease inhibitors are mainly localized intracellularly and their in vivo functions are largely unknown. To elucidate their physiological role(s), we studied the expression of one of these inhibitors, protease inhibitor 8 (PI-8), in normal human tissues by immunohistochemistry using a PI-8-specific monoclonal antibody. PI-8 was strongly expressed in the nuclei of squamous epithelium of mouth, pharynx, esophagus, and epidermis, and by the epithelial layer of skin appendages, particularly by more differentiated epithelial cells. PI-8 was also expressed by monocytes and by neuroendocrine cells in the pituitary gland, pancreas, and digestive tract. Monocytes showed nuclear and cytoplasmic localization of PI-8, whereas neuroendocrine cells showed only cytoplasmic staining. In vitro nuclear localization of PI-8 was confirmed by confocal analysis using serpin-transfected HeLa cells. Furthermore, mutation of the P(1) residue did not affect the subcellular distribution pattern of PI-8, indicating that its nuclear localization is independent of the interaction with its target protease. We conclude that PI-8 has a unique distribution pattern in human tissues compared to the distribution patterns of other intracellular serpins. Additional studies must be performed to elucidate its physiological role.

Long-Term Trends of HIV Type 1 Drug Resistance Prevalence among Antiretroviral Treatment-Experienced Patients in Switzerland.

Background. Accurate quantification of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) drug resistance in patients who are receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) is difficult, and results from previous studies vary. We attempted to assess the prevalence and dynamics of resistance in a highly representative patient cohort from Switzerland. Methods. On the basis of genotypic resistance test results and clinical data, we grouped patients according to their risk of harboring resistant viruses. Estimates of resistance prevalence were calculated on the basis of either the proportion of individuals with a virologic failure or confirmed drug resistance (lower estimate) or the frequency-weighted average of risk group-specific probabilities for the presence of drug resistance mutations (upper estimate). Results. Lower and upper estimates of drug resistance prevalence in 8064 ART-exposed patients were 50% and 57% in 1999 and 37% and 45% in 2007, respectively. This decrease was driven by 2 mechanisms: loss to follow-up or death of high-risk patients exposed to mono- or dual-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor therapy (lower estimates range from 72% to 75%) and continued enrollment of low-risk patients who were taking combination ART containing boosted protease inhibitors or nonnucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors as first-line therapy (lower estimates range from 7% to 12%). A subset of 4184 participants (52%) had 1 study visit per year during 2002-2007. In this subset, lower and upper estimates increased from 45% to 49% and from 52% to 55%, respectively. Yearly increases in prevalence were becoming smaller in later years. Conclusions. Contrary to earlier predictions, in situations of free access to drugs, close monitoring, and rapid introduction of new potent therapies, the emergence of drug-resistant viruses can be minimized at the population level. Moreover, this study demonstrates the necessity of interpreting time trends in the context of evolving cohort populations.

Physical activity attenuates the influence of FTO variants on obesity risk: a meta-analysis of 218,166 adults and 19,268 children.

BACKGROUND: The FTO gene harbors the strongest known susceptibility locus for obesity. While many individual studies have suggested that physical activity (PA) may attenuate the effect of FTO on obesity risk, other studies have not been able to confirm this interaction. To confirm or refute unambiguously whether PA attenuates the association of FTO with obesity risk, we meta-analyzed data from 45 studies of adults (n = 218,166) and nine studies of children and adolescents (n = 19,268). METHODS AND FINDINGS: All studies identified to have data on the FTO rs9939609 variant (or any proxy [r(2)>0.8]) and PA were invited to participate, regardless of ethnicity or age of the participants. PA was standardized by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable (physically inactive versus active) in each study. Overall, 25% of adults and 13% of children were categorized as inactive. Interaction analyses were performed within each study by including the FTO×PA interaction term in an additive model, adjusting for age and sex. Subsequently, random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the interaction terms. In adults, the minor (A-) allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity by 1.23-fold/allele (95% CI 1.20-1.26), but PA attenuated this effect (p(interaction)  = 0.001). More specifically, the minor allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity less in the physically active group (odds ratio  = 1.22/allele, 95% CI 1.19-1.25) than in the inactive group (odds ratio  = 1.30/allele, 95% CI 1.24-1.36). No such interaction was found in children and adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: The association of the FTO risk allele with the odds of obesity is attenuated by 27% in physically active adults, highlighting the importance of PA in particular in those genetically predisposed to obesity.

The relation of body mass index and abdominal adiposity with dyslipidemia in 27 general populations of the WHO MONICA Project.

The association between adiposity measures and dyslipidemia has seldom been assessed in a multipopulational setting. 27 populations from Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Canada (WHO MONICA project) using health surveys conducted between 1990 and 1997 in adults aged 35-64 years (n = 40,480). Dyslipidemia was defined as the total/HDL cholesterol ratio >6 (men) and >5 (women). Overall prevalence of dyslipidemia was 25% in men and 23% in women. Logistic regression showed that dyslipidemia was strongly associated with body mass index (BMI) in men and with waist circumference (WC) in women, after adjusting for region, age and smoking. Among normal-weight men and women (BMI<25 kg/m(2)), an increase in the odds for being dyslipidemic was observed between lowest and highest WC quartiles (OR = 3.6, p < 0.001). Among obese men (BMI ≥ 30), the corresponding increase was smaller (OR = 1.2, p = 0.036). A similar weakening was observed among women. Classification tree analysis was performed to assign subjects into classes of risk for dyslipidemia. BMI thresholds (25.4 and 29.2 kg/m(2)) in men and WC thresholds (81.7 and 92.6 cm) in women came out at first stages. High WC (>84.8 cm) in normal-weight men, menopause in women and regular smoking further defined subgroups at increased risk. standard categories of BMI and WC, or their combinations, do not lead to optimal risk stratification for dyslipidemia in middle-age adults. Sex-specific adaptations are necessary, in particular by taking into account abdominal obesity in normal-weight men, post-menopausal age in women and regular smoking in both sexes.

Structural organization of alpha-subunit from purified and microsomal toad kidney (Na+ + K+)-ATPase as assessed by controlled trypsinolysis

The membrane organization of the alpha-subunit of purified (Na+ + K+)-ATPase ((Na+ + K+)-dependent adenosine triphosphate phosphorylase, EC 3.6.1.3) and of the microsomal enzyme of the kidney of the toad Bufo marinus was compared by using controlled trypsinolysis. With both enzyme preparations, digestions performed in the presence of Na+ yielded a 73 kDa fragment and in the presence of K+ a 56 kDa, a 40 kDa and small amounts of a 83 kDa fragment from the 96 kDa alpha-subunit. In contrast to mammalian preparations (Jørgensen, P.L. (1975) Biochim. Biophys. Acta 401, 399-415), trypsinolysis of the purified amphibian enzyme led to a biphasic loss of (Na+ + K+)-ATPase activity in the presence of both Na+ and K+. These data could be correlated with an early rapid cleavage of 3 kDa from the alpha-subunit in both ionic conditions and a slower degradation of the remaining 93 kDa polypeptide. On the other hand, in the microsomal enzyme, a 3 kDa shift of the alpha-subunit could only be produced in the presence of Na+. Our data indicate that (1) purification of the amphibian enzyme with detergent does not influence the overall topology of the alpha-subunit but produces a distinct structural alteration of its N-terminus and (2) the amphibian kidney enzyme responds to cations with similar conformational transitions as the mammalian kidney enzyme. In addition, anti alpha-serum used on digested enzyme samples revealed on immunoblots that the 40 kDa fragment was better recognized than the 56 kDa fragment. It is concluded that the NH2-terminal of the alpha-subunit contains more antigenic sites than the COOH-terminal domain in agreement with the results of Farley et al. (Farley, R.A., Ochoa, G.T. and Kudrow, A. (1986) Am. J. Physiol. 250, C896-C906).

Extraintestinal Manifestations of Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

Extraintestinal manifestations (EIM) in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) are frequent and may occur before or after IBD diagnosis. EIM may impact the quality of life for patients with IBD significantly requiring specific treatment depending on the affected organ(s). They most frequently affect joints, skin, or eyes, but can also less frequently involve other organs such as liver, lungs, or pancreas. Certain EIM, such as peripheral arthritis, oral aphthous ulcers, episcleritis, or erythema nodosum, are frequently associated with active intestinal inflammation and usually improve by treatment of the intestinal activity. Other EIM, such as uveitis or ankylosing spondylitis, usually occur independent of intestinal inflammatory activity. For other not so rare EIM, such as pyoderma gangrenosum and primary sclerosing cholangitis, the association with the activity of the underlying IBD is unclear. Successful therapy of EIM is essential for improving quality of life of patients with IBD. Besides other options, tumor necrosis factor antibody therapy is an important therapy for EIM in patients with IBD.

Leviticus cum glossa ordinaria.

F. 1 Prologue, incomplet du début : « ... Esicius. Prae omnibus necesse est... » (P. L., CXIII, 297).

Legendarius per circulum anni, pars.

Légendier disposé dans l'ordre du calendrier liturgique du 20 juillet au 25 novembre et contenant les saints suivants: ss. Margarita, Maria Magdelene, Jacobus major ap., Stephanus, Laurentius, Hippolytus, assumptio b. Mariae, Bartholomaeus, Augustinus, Johannes Baptista, Aegidius, nativitas b. Mariae, Gorgonius, Protus et Hyacinthus, exaltatio s. Crucis, Euphemia, Matthaeus, Mauritius, Cosmas et Damianus, Michael archangelus, Hieronymus, Leodegarius, Dionysius, Lucas, Simon et Judas, Martinus, Caecilia, Clemens, Catharina. F. 1-130. Legendarius. F. 1-3v. "... passio sancte Margarete virginis"; cf. B.H.L. n° 5306. F. 3v-6v. "... vita sancte Marie Magdalene" [ODO Cluniacensis abbas, sermo 2, excerptum] (P.L. 133, 714B-719C); cf. B.H.L. n° 5440. F. 6v-8v. "... passio sancti Jacobi [majoris] apostoli" incomplet des lignes finales par lacune matérielle, à partir de "decollandi erant dixit [Jacobus...]" [Virtutes apostolorum, de s. Jacobo majore] (Mombritius, 2a ed., II, 37-40 lig. 15); cf. B.H.L. n° 4057; C.A.N.T. n° 272. F. 9-12. "Inventio sancti Stephani prothomartyris" [LUCIANUS presbyter, interprete AVITO presbytero Bracarensi ]. "Domino venerabili Nimpsio [sic] episcopo... [Julianus exponctué et corrigé en] Lucianus... Revelationem que mihi ostensa est...-... aperire dignatus est..." recensio mixta suivie d'un court épilogue: "Bovem appellatum... declarata sunt"; cf. C.P.L. n° 575; B.H.L. Suppl. n° 7851n (E. Vanderlinden, Rev. des études byzantines, IV, 1946, 190-216, version A'; ne fait pas partie des mss. recensés pour l'édition). F. 12-16. "... passio sancti [Sixti et sancti] Laurentii". "In illo tempore Decius Caesar et Valerianus prefectus jusserunt...-... participati sunt omnes"; cf. B.H.L. Suppl. n° 7801 avec var. incipit et n° 4754. F. 16-18. "... passio sancti Ypoliti et sociorum ejus". "Egressus itaque Ypolitus post tercium diem...-... vivere male et regnare cum Christo "; cf. B.H.L. n° 3961 avec var. incipit et explicit. F. 18-31. "... [sermo] beati Ieronimi in assumptione sancte Virginis" [PASCHASIUS RADBERTUS, De Adsumptione b. Mariae] (C.C.C.M., LVI C 109-162; édité aussi parmi les apocryphes de saint Jérôme, P.L., XXX, 126-147); cf. C.P.L. n° 633, ep. 9 (18-29). F. 29-31. Addition contemporaine : "In vigilia assumptionis beate Marie legatur: Secundum Lucam (Lc 11, 27). [M]agne devocionis et fidei...-... ubera que suxisti" [BEDA, In Lc, l. IV, excerptum] divisé en trois paragraphes, correspondant sans doute à trois leçons (P.L., XCII, 479 C-480 B; C.C.S.L., CXX, 236-237 lig. 213-244) (29). — "Sermo iste legatur in nativitate beate Marie virginis"; cf. infra f. 56v. "[A]pprobate consuetudinis est apud christianos...-... pacta cessare" [FULBERTUS CARNOTENSIS, sermo 4] incomplet de la fin qui a été laissée en blanc (P.L. CXLI, 320-324 A; J.M. Canal, dans Rech. théol. anc. méd., XXX (1963), 56-61 lig. 168); ne fait pas partie des mss. répertoriés par J.M. Canal, ibid., XXIX (1962), 36-37; division marginale en neuf, puis en trois fois trois leçons; en marge du titre, une note difficilement lisible identifie l'auteur: "sermo Fulberti ep. Carnotensis" (29v-31). F. 32-35. "... vita [sic pro passio] sancti Bartholomei apostoli" [Virtutes apostolorum, de s. Bartholomaeo]; cf. B.H.L. Suppl. n° 1002a; C.A.N.T. n° 259. F. 35-49v. "[Vita s.] Augustini episcopi", sans prologue [POSSIDIUS]. "Ex provincia affricana civitate...-... perfruar"; cf. B.H.L. n° 785; C.P.L. n° 358 (35-49a lig. 7); suivi de la liste des livres de s. Augustin dans l'ordre des Retractations : "Libros vero quod edidit hic breviter enumerare vel annotare non omissi. Et hoc indicium librorum omnium sancti Augustini. Contra paganos achademicos [sic] libri III. De beata vita liber I. De ordine sacro libri II. De soliloquiis...-... et gratia liber. Requievit autem... V. kal. septembris..." (C.C.S.L., LVII (1984), 1-4, var.); texte proche du ms. lat. 5276, ff. 136v-137, répertorié par A. Wilmart, Miscellanea Agostiniana, Roma, 1931, 157 (Testi e studi, 2) (49a lig. 7-49v). F. 49v-52v. "Inventio capitis sancti Johannis Baptiste"; cf. B.H.L. n° 4296 (49v-51). — "De translatione ejusdem [Angeriacum]"; cf. B.H.L. n° 4297 (51-52v). F. 52v-56v. "... vita sancti Egidii"; cf. B.H.L. n° 93. F. 56v-59v. "De nativitate sancte Marie". "Petis a me petitiunculam opere...-... prefationem habuisse"; cf. B.H.L. Suppl. n° 5345 (56v a-b lig. 27) ; suivi de: "Petitis a me...-... scribi potuerunt. Igitur beata et gloriosissima semper virgo Maria..-... docuerunt Dominum..." (éd. parmi les apocryphes de s. Jérôme, P.L., XXX, 2a ed., 307-317); cf. B.H.L. n° 5344-5343; C.P.L., n° 633, ep. 50 (56v b lig. 27-59v). L'attribution à Paschase Radbert des deux lettres regroupées en une seule faite par C. Lambot, dans Rev. bénéd., XLVI (1934), 271-282, est réfutée par R. Beyers, dans Rev. Théol. et Philos., CXXII (1990), 171-188. Voir sa nouv. éd. dans CC Apocrypha, 10. F. 59v-61v. "Passio sancti Gorgonii [et Dorothei]; cf. B.H.L. n° 3617. F. 61v-62. "[Passio ss.] Prothi et Jacincti"; cf. B.H.L. n° 6977. F. 62-63v. "De exaltatione sancte Crucis". "Tempore illo postquam Constantino Augusto contra Maxentium..."; cf. B.H.L. n° 4178, avec var. incipit. F. 64-68v. "[Passio s.] Eufemie virginis". "Quinto persecutionis anno Diocletiani...-... Completum est autem martyrium... Prisco proconsule Europe..."; cf. B.H.L. n° 2709, avec var. explicit. F. 68v-72v. "[Passio] sancti Mathei apostoli" [Virtutes apostolorum, de s. Jacobo majore]; cf. C.A.N.T. n° 270; B.H.L. n° 5690, avec var. explicit de l'épilogue: "Zaroes autem...-... passio eorum ostendit". F. 72v-76. "[Passio s.] [Marcii corrigé en] Mauricii con [sic] sociis suis" [s. EUCHERIUS LUGDUNENSIS] sans le prologue; cf. B.H.L. n° 5738; C.P.L. n° 490. F. 76-79v. "[Passio ss.] Cosme et Damiani"; cf. B.H.L. Suppl. n° 1975. F. 79v-80. "[In festivitate s.] Michaelis archangeli". "Angelorum quippe et hominum naturam...-... medicina Dei." [GREGORIUS MAGNUS, Hom. in Ev., 34, excerptum]; C.P.L. n° 1711 (P.L., LXXVI, 1249 C-1251 A, §§ 6, fin-9 début) divisé en 8 paragraphes; une interpolation a été ajoutée dans la marge inférieure du f. 79v par une main contemporaine qui a également numéroté les paragraphes en IX leçons, le texte ajouté formant la lectio IIa : "[N]ovem esse angelorum ordines ad Dei judicia...-... principantur."; il s'agit d'un court extrait du sermon Legimus in ecclesiasticis historiis édité par J. E. Cross, dans Traditio, 33 (1977), 108-109 lig. 41-47 (Beda, Homilia subditia 71, P.L., XCIV, 453 C); cf. C.P.P.M., I, 4046. F. 80-82v. "[Vita s.] Jeronimi presbiteri". "Hieronimus noster [corrigé en: presbiter] in oppido Stridonis...-... etatis sue anno in Domino requievit cui..." extraits de la Vie apocryphe de Gennadius (P.L., XXII, 175-184, passim, avec var.); cf. C.P.L. n° 623; B.H.L. n° 3869; Lambert, B.H.M., IIIA, 630 (80-81b lig. 26); suivi du miracle du lion extrait de la Vie du Ps. Sebastianus Casinensis: "Contigit autem hujusmodi miraculum in monasterio... Quadam namque die ingens leo... - asserendo narrantur" (P.L., XXII, 210 lig. 11-213 lig. 11); cf. C.P.L. n° 622; B.H.L. n° 3872 avec var. incipit; Lambert, B.H.M., IIIA, 630 (81b lig. 26-82v). F. 82v-88v. "[Vita s.] Leodegarii". "Igitur sanctus Leodegarius ex progenie...-... postmodum cecum. ... adnecteret opera ibidem" [URSINUS LOGOGIACENSIS] sans le prologue et incomplet de la fin (C.C.S.L., CXVII, 589-632 lig. 14, avec var.); cf. C.P.L. n° 1079a; B.H.L. n° 4851; suivi d'un court extrait omis à sa place plus haut dans le texte: "Deinde vero ire ceperunt... Dei opera ibidem" (ed. cit., 631 § 31 lig. 3-7). F. 88v-98. "[Passio] sancti Dyonisii martyris", texte incomplet par suite de la perte de 2 ff. entre les ff. 96 et 97, le texte s'arrête à "...fideliter adhe[-rebat]" et reprend à "[Domitia-]no per tres Cesares..." (P.L., CVI, 23-40 C et 48 A-50); cf. B.H.L. n° 2175. F. 98-100v. "[Laudatio s.] Luce evvangeliste". "Gloriosus igitur evvangelista Jhesu Christi Lucas natione Syrus...-... ubique confluunt qui ..." [PAULUS DIACONUS, hom. 59] incomplet du prologue (P.L., XCV, 1530-1535, avec var.); cf. B.H.L. n° 4974, d'après ce ms. F. 100v-106. "[Passio ss.] Symonis et Jude apostolorum" avec l'épilogue [ABDIAS, Virtutes Simonis et Judae Thaddaei]; cf. B.H.L. n° 7750-7751; C.A.N.T. n° 284. F. 106-107v. "[Laudatio] sancti Martini archiepiscopi" [ALCUINUS, De vita s. Martini, pars I]; cf. B.H.L. n° 5625. — GREGORIUS TURONENSIS, De virtutibus s. Martini; cf. B.H.L. n° 5618; seule l'adresse du prologue, introduite par une initiale filigranée, a été copiée au bas du f. 107v, col. b: "Domnis sanctis et in Christi amore dulcissimis fratribus... Gregorius peccator", le texte lui-même manque, soit en raison de la perte du cahier suivant, soit qu'il n'ait pas été copié. F. 108-115v. "[Passio s.] Cecilie virginis et martyris"; cf. B.H.L. Suppl. n° 1495a. F. 115v-118v. "[Passio s.] Clementis pape". [Prologus] "Postquam igitur beatus Petrus apostolus in Antiochia cathedram... -... passio secuta est"; cf. B.H.L. Suppl. n° 1849, d'après ce ms. (115v-116a, lig. 11); — "Tunc sanctus Clemens romane ecclesie episcopus disciplinam...-... Cersone Licie provincie"; C.P.L. n° 2177; B.H.L. n° 1848 (Mombritius, 2a ed., I, 341-344, var. à l'incipit et à l'explicit); suivi de: "Oremus fratres ut Dominus... participes. Per..." (116a, lig. 11-118v). F.118v-130. "[Passio] sancte Katerine virginis et martyris"; cf. B.H.L. n° 1663, sans le prologue. F. 130-130v. Additions. Table des saints contenus dans le volume, XIVe s. (130). — Prière latine en 10 strophes de deux vers, XVe s.: "Jhesu tue matris prece ab Orci me serva nece...-... ab inferi atris" (130v).

La Lutte : revue d'art et de sociologie catholique / directeur : Georges Ramaekers

1897/06 (A3,N3).

La Lutte : revue d'art et de sociologie catholique / directeur : Georges Ramaekers

1898/12/15 (A4,N9).

La Lutte : revue d'art et de sociologie catholique / directeur : Georges Ramaekers

1898/07 (A4,N4).

La Lutte : revue d'art et de sociologie catholique / directeur : Georges Ramaekers

1896/05 (A2,N2).