Determinants of death following burn injury

Background: Burn care has changed considerably. Early surgery, nutritional support, improved resuscitation and novel skin replacement techniques are now well established. The aim of the study was to establish whether changes in management have improved survival following burn injury and to determine the contributory factors leading to non-survival. Methods: This was a retrospective outcome analysis of data collected from a consecutive series of 4094 patients with burns admitted to a tertiary referral, metropolitan teaching hospital between 1972 and 1996, Results: The overall mortality rate was 3.6 per cent. This decreased from 5.3 per cent (1972-1980) to 3.4 per cent (1993-1996) (P = 0.076). The risk of death was increased with increasing burn size (relative risk (RR) 95.90 (95 per cent confidence interval 12.60-729.47) if more than 35 per cent of the total body surface area was burned; P < 0.001) increasing age (RR 7.32 (3.08-17.42) if aged more than 48 years; P < 0.001), inhalation injury (RR 3.61 (2.39-5.47); P < 0.001) and female sex (RR 1.82 (1.23-2.69); P = 0.003). Operative intervention (RR 0.11 (0.06-0.21); P < 0.001) and the presence of an upper limb burn (RR 0.53 (0.35-0.79); P = 0.002) decreased the risk. Conclusion: Modern burn care has decreased the mortality rate. Increasing burn size, increasing age, inhalation injury and female sex increased, while operative intervention and an upper limb burn decreased, the risk of death.

The influence of diet and exercise on muscle and plasma glutamine concentrations

Purpose: This study examined the relationship between muscle glutamine, muscle glycogen, and plasma glutamine concentrations over 3 d of high-intensity exercise during which dietary carbohydrate (CHO) intake varied. Methods: Five endurance-trained men completed two exercise trials in randomized order, over a 14-d period. Each trial required subjects to perform 50 min of high-intensity continuous and interval exercise on three consecutive days while consuming a diet that provided 45% of the energy as CHO or a diet in which CHO provided 70% of the total energy. Four days of inactivity and consumption of a 55% CHO diet separated the two randomized trials. Menus and food were provided for the subjects and all food and drink consumed were weighed and recorded for later analysis. Before exercise on the first day of each trial, at the start of exercise on day 3 and on completion of exercise on day 3, muscle was biopsied from the vastus lateralis for the analysis of glutamine and glycogen concentrations. Venous blood was sampled before and twice after exercise on each day for the analysis of plasma glutamine and cortisol concentrations. Results: Mean plasma glutamine concentration was significantly higher during the 70% CHO exercise trial when compared with the 45% CHO trial (P < 0.05). Glycogen decreased by the same magnitude during both trials and there was no relationship between changes in plasma glutamine and changes in muscle glycogen concentration. Muscle glutamine concentration did not change in either trial. Conclusions: These data suggest that the influence of carbohydrate intake upon the concentration of plasma glutamine is not mediated through the concentration of intramuscular glycogen.

Fitting a mixture model to three-mode three-way data with missing information

When the data consist of certain attributes measured on the same set of items in different situations, they would be described as a three-mode three-way array. A mixture likelihood approach can be implemented to cluster the items (i.e., one of the modes) on the basis of both of the other modes simultaneously (i.e,, the attributes measured in different situations). In this paper, it is shown that this approach can be extended to handle three-mode three-way arrays where some of the data values are missing at random in the sense of Little and Rubin (1987). The methodology is illustrated by clustering the genotypes in a three-way soybean data set where various attributes were measured on genotypes grown in several environments.

An extended interval dosing method for gentamicin in neonates

Traditional gentamicin dosing every 8–24 h depending on age and weight in neonates does not provide the ideal concentration–time profile to both optimize the concentration-dependent killing by aminoglycosides and minimize toxicity. Fifty-three neonates were audited prospectively while receiving gentamicin 2.5 mg/kg every 8–24 h, aiming for peak concentrations (Cmax) of 6–10 mg/L and trough concentrations (Cmin) 10 mg/L after the first dose. The mean area under the concentration versus time curve AUC0–24 was 93 mg•h/L (target = 100 mg•h/L). The extended interval dosing achieved higher Cmax values while ensuring that overall exposure per 24 h was acceptable. Prospective testing of the method demonstrated good predictive ability.

Exploratory spatial data analysis techniques for examining urban crime

Regional planners, policy makers and policing agencies all recognize the importance of better understanding the dynamics of crime. Theoretical and application-oriented approaches which provide insights into why and where crimes take place are much sought after. Geographic information systems and spatial analysis techniques, in particular, are proving to be essential or studying criminal activity. However, the capabilities of these quantitative methods continue to evolve. This paper explores the use of geographic information systems and spatial analysis approaches for examining crime occurrence in Brisbane, Australia. The analysis highlights novel capabilities for the analysis of crime in urban regions.

The effect of moderate aerobic exercise and relaxation on secretory immunoglobulin A

A deficiency in secretory immunoglobulin A (sIgA) is associated with recurrent upper respiratory tract infections both in the general community and in elite athletes. The aim of this paper was to investigate the effect of aerobic exercise and relaxation on various indices of sIgA in 12 male and 8 female adults who varied in levels of recreational activity. Salivary samples were obtained before, immediately after and 30 minutes after an incremental cycle ergometer test to fatigue. after 30 minutes of cycling at 30% or 60 % of maximum heart rate, and after 30 minutes of relaxation with guided imagery. Each session was run on a separate day. When expressed in relation to changes in salivary flow rate, sIgA did not change after exercise. However, both the absolute concentration and secretion rate of sIgA increased during relaxation (167 +/- 179 mug ml(-1), p < 0.001: and 37 +/- 71 g(.)min(-1), p < 0.05 respectively). Nonspecific protein increased more than sIgA during incremental exercise to fatigue (decrease in the sIgA/protein ratio 92 +/- 181 g(.)mg protein(-1), p(0.05), but sIgA relative to protein did not change during relaxation. Our findings suggest that sIgA secretion rate is a more appropriate measure of sIgA than sIgA relative to protein, both for exercise and relaxation. These data suggest the possibility of using relaxation to counteract the negative effects of intense exercise on sIgA levels.

Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Associations involving delays (particularly long delays) between certain weather parameters and geomagnetic activity

Four sunspot-minimum periods (1963-1966, 1971-1977, 1983-1987 and 1992-1997) have been examined for the results which are presented. Using several different weather parameters, tropospheric gravity waves, enhanced cold fronts and two rainfall data sets in Eastern Australia, associations at reasonably high levels of significance have been found with enhanced geomagnetic activity (EGA). Statistically this EGA involved either short delays of several days or long delays of about 20 days. The geomagnetic parameters used were (a) the AE index (b) the hourly H component for a number of stations and (c) the daily K-P-sum value. The K-P-sum analyses have shown that the EGA associated with the delays form part of four or five cycles of recurrent geomagnetic activity for 27-day periodicities. Furthermore statistically two recurrent cycles are found to exist concurrently, one apparently related to the short delays and the other to the long delays. Periodicities of 13.5 days are created because the two sets are displaced from each other by approximately this interval. A brief reference is made to the 13.5 periodicity known to exist for geomagnetic activity and the evidence in the literature for active regions on the sun to be displaced by 180 degrees of solar longitude.

Exploring through cover - the integrated interpretation of high resolution aeromagnetic, airborne electromagnetic and ground gravity data from the Grant's Patch area, Eastern Goldfields Province, Archaean Yigarn Craton Part B; Gravity inversion as a

The cost and risk associated with mineral exploration in Australia increases significantly as companies move into deeper regolith-covered terrain. The ability to map the bedrock and the depth of weathering within an area has the potential to decrease this risk and increase the effectiveness of exploration programs. This paper is the second in a trilogy concerning the Grant's Patch area of the Eastern Goldfields. The recent development of the VPmg potential field inversion program in conjunction with the acquisition of high-resolution gravity data over an area with extensive drilling provided an opportunity to evaluate three-dimensional gravity inversion as a bedrock and regolith mapping tool. An apparent density model of the study area was constructed, with the ground represented as adjoining 200 m by 200 m vertical rectangular prisms. During inversion VPmg incrementally adjusted the density of each prism until the free-air gravity response of the model replicated the observed data. For the Grant's Patch study area, this image of the apparent density values proved easier to interpret than the Bouguer gravity image. A regolith layer was introduced into the model and realistic fresh-rock densities assigned to each basement prism according to its interpreted lithology. With the basement and regolith densities fixed, the VPmg inversion algorithm adjusted the depth to fresh basement until the misfit between the calculated and observed gravity response was minimised. The resulting geometry of the bedrock/regolith contact largely replicated the base of weathering indicated by drilling with predicted depth of weathering values from gravity inversion typically within 15% of those logged during RAB and RC drilling.

'Neighbourhood' size, dispersal and density estimates in the prickly forest skink (Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae) using individual genetic and demographic methods

Dispersal, or the amount of dispersion between an individual's birthplace and that of its offspring, is of great importance in population biology, behavioural ecology and conservation, however, obtaining direct estimates from field data on natural populations can be problematic. The prickly forest skink, Gnypetoscincus queenslandiae, is a rainforest endemic skink from the wet tropics of Australia. Because of its log-dwelling habits and lack of definite nesting sites, a demographic estimate of dispersal distance is difficult to obtain. Neighbourhood size, defined as 4 piD sigma (2) (where D is the population density and sigma (2) the mean axial squared parent-offspring dispersal rate), dispersal and density were estimated directly and indirectly for this species using mark-recapture and microsatellite data, respectively, on lizards captured at a local geographical scale of 3 ha. Mark-recapture data gave a dispersal rate of 843 m(2)/generation (assuming a generation time of 6.5 years), a time-scaled density of 13 635 individuals * generation/km(2) and, hence, a neighbourhood size of 144 individuals. A genetic method based on the multilocus (10 loci) microsatellite genotypes of individuals and their geographical location indicated that there is a significant isolation by distance pattern, and gave a neighbourhood size of 69 individuals, with a 95% confidence interval between 48 and 184. This translates into a dispersal rate of 404 m(2)/generation when using the mark-recapture density estimation, or an estimate of time-scaled population density of 6520 individuals * generation/km(2) when using the mark-recapture dispersal rate estimate. The relationship between the two categories of neighbourhood size, dispersal and density estimates and reasons for any disparities are discussed.