Derivation and validation of a prognostic model for pulmonary embolism.

RATIONALE: An objective and simple prognostic model for patients with pulmonary embolism could be helpful in guiding initial intensity of treatment. OBJECTIVES: To develop a clinical prediction rule that accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into categories of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. METHODS: We randomly allocated 15,531 inpatient discharges with pulmonary embolism from 186 Pennsylvania hospitals to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. We derived our prediction rule using logistic regression with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome, and patient demographic and clinical data routinely available at presentation as potential predictor variables. We externally validated the rule in 221 inpatients with pulmonary embolism from Switzerland and France. MEASUREMENTS: We compared mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. MAIN RESULTS: The prediction rule is based on 11 simple patient characteristics that were independently associated with mortality and stratifies patients with pulmonary embolism into five severity classes, with 30-day mortality rates of 0-1.6% in class I, 1.7-3.5% in class II, 3.2-7.1% in class III, 4.0-11.4% in class IV, and 10.0-24.5% in class V across the derivation and validation samples. Inpatient death and nonfatal complications were <or= 1.1% among patients in class I and <or= 1.9% among patients in class II. CONCLUSIONS: Our rule accurately classifies patients with pulmonary embolism into classes of increasing risk of mortality and other adverse medical outcomes. Further validation of the rule is important before its implementation as a decision aid to guide the initial management of patients with pulmonary embolism.

Field Testing of Integral Abutments, Interim Report, HR-399, 1998

Integral abutment bridges are constructed without an expansion joint in the superstructure of the bridge; therefore, the bridge girders, deck, abutment diaphragms, and abutments are monolithically constructed. The abutment piles in an integral abutment bridge are vertically orientated, and they are embedded into the pile cap. When this type of a bridge experiences thermal expansion or contraction, horizontal displacements are induced at the top of the abutment piles. The flexibility of the abutment piles eliminates the need to provide an expansion joint at the inside face to the abutments: Integral abutment bridge construction has been used in Iowa and other states for many years. This research is evaluating the performance of integral abutment bridges by investigating thermally induced displacements, strains, and temperatures in two Iowa bridges. Each bridge has a skewed alignment, contains five prestressed concrete girders that support a 30-ft wide roadway for three spans, and involves a water crossing. The bridges will be monitored for about two years. For each bridge, an instrumentation package includes measurement devices and hardware and software support systems. The measurement devices are displacement transducers, strain gages, and thermocouples. The hardware and software systems include a data-logger; multiplexers; directline telephone service and computer terminal modem; direct-line electrical power; lap-top computer; and an assortment of computer programs for monitoring, transmitting, and management of the data. Instrumentation has been installed on a bridge located in Guthrie County, and similar instrumentation is currently being installed on a bridge located in Story County. Preliminary test results for the bridge located in Guthrie County have revealed that temperature changes of the bridge deck and girders induce both longitudinal and transverse displacements of the abutments and significant flexural strains in the abutment piles. For an average temperature range of 73° F for the superstructure concrete in the bridge located in Guthrie County, the change in the bridge length was about 1 118 in. and the maximum, strong-axis, flexural-strain range for one of the abutment piles was about 400 micro-strains, which corresponds to a stress range of about 11,600 psi.

Cancer chronotherapeutics: experimental, theoretical, and clinical aspects.

The circadian timing system controls cell cycle, apoptosis, drug bioactivation, and transport and detoxification mechanisms in healthy tissues. As a consequence, the tolerability of cancer chemotherapy varies up to several folds as a function of circadian timing of drug administration in experimental models. Best antitumor efficacy of single-agent or combination chemotherapy usually corresponds to the delivery of anticancer drugs near their respective times of best tolerability. Mathematical models reveal that such coincidence between chronotolerance and chronoefficacy is best explained by differences in the circadian and cell cycle dynamics of host and cancer cells, especially with regard circadian entrainment and cell cycle variability. In the clinic, a large improvement in tolerability was shown in international randomized trials where cancer patients received the same sinusoidal chronotherapy schedule over 24h as compared to constant-rate infusion or wrongly timed chronotherapy. However, sex, genetic background, and lifestyle were found to influence optimal chronotherapy scheduling. These findings support systems biology approaches to cancer chronotherapeutics. They involve the systematic experimental mapping and modeling of chronopharmacology pathways in synchronized cell cultures and their adjustment to mouse models of both sexes and distinct genetic background, as recently shown for irinotecan. Model-based personalized circadian drug delivery aims at jointly improving tolerability and efficacy of anticancer drugs based on the circadian timing system of individual patients, using dedicated circadian biomarker and drug delivery technologies.

Short-term Hydropower Planning System

The Thesis gives a decision support framework that has significant impact on the economic performance and viability of a hydropower company. The studyaddresses the short-term hydropower planning problem in the Nordic deregulated electricity market. The basics of the Nordic electricity market, trading mechanisms, hydropower system characteristics and production planning are presented in the Thesis. The related modelling theory and optimization methods are covered aswell. The Thesis provides a mixed integer linear programming model applied in asuccessive linearization method for optimal bidding and scheduling decisions inthe hydropower system operation within short-term horizon. A scenario based deterministic approach is exploited for modelling uncertainty in market price and inflow. The Thesis proposes a calibration framework to examine the physical accuracy and economic optimality of the decisions suggested by the model. A calibration example is provided with data from a real hydropower system using a commercial modelling application with the mixed integer linear programming solver CPLEX.

International bioenergy trade- scenario study on international biomass market in 2020

The markets of biomass for energy are developing rapidly and becoming more international. A remarkable increase in the use of biomass for energy needs parallel and positive development in several areas, and there will be plenty of challenges to overcome. The main objective of the study was to clarify the alternative future scenarios for the international biomass market until the year 2020, and based on the scenario process, to identify underlying steps needed towards the vital working and sustainable biomass market for energy purposes. Two scenario processes were conducted for this study. The first was carried out with a group of Finnish experts and thesecond involved an international group. A heuristic, semi-structured approach, including the use of preliminary questionnaires as well as manual and computerised group support systems (GSS), was applied in the scenario processes.The scenario processes reinforced the picture of the future of international biomass and bioenergy markets as a complex and multi-layer subject. The scenarios estimated that the biomass market will develop and grow rapidly as well as diversify in the future. The results of the scenario process also opened up new discussion and provided new information and collective views of experts for the purposes of policy makers. An overall view resulting from this scenario analysis are the enormous opportunities relating to the utilisation of biomass as a resource for global energy use in the coming decades. The scenario analysis shows the key issues in the field: global economic growth including the growing need for energy, environmental forces in the global evolution, possibilities of technological development to solve global problems, capabilities of the international community to find solutions for global issues and the complex interdependencies of all these driving forces. The results of the scenario processes provide a starting point for further research analysing the technological and commercial aspects related the scenarios and foreseeing the scales and directions of biomass streams.

Supporting knowledge creation and sharing in the early phases of the strategic innovation process

The driving forces of technology and globalization continuously transform the business landscape in a way which undermines the existing strategies and innovations of organizations. The challenge for organizations is to establish such conditions where they are able to create new knowledge for innovative business ideas in interaction between other organizations and individuals. Innovation processes continuously need new external stimulations and seek new ideas, new information and knowledge locating more and more outside traditional organizational boundaries. In several studies, the early phases of the innovation process have been considered as the most critical ones. During these phases, the innovation process can emerge or conclude. External knowledge acquirement and utilization are noticed to be important at this stage of the innovation process giving information about the development of future markets and needs for new innovative businessideas. To make it possible, new methods and approaches to manage proactive knowledge creation and sharing activities are needed. In this study, knowledge creation and sharing in the early phases of the innovation process has been studied, and the understanding of knowledge management in the innovation process in an open and collaborative context advanced. Furthermore, the innovation management methods in this study are combined in a novel way to establish an open innovation process and tested in real-life cases. For these purposes two complementary and sequentially applied group work methods - the heuristic scenario method and the idea generation process - are examined by focusing the research on the support of the open knowledge creation and sharing process. The research objective of this thesis concerns two doctrines: the innovation management including the knowledge management, and the futures research concerning the scenario paradigm. This thesis also applies the group decision support system (GDSS) in the idea generation process to utilize the converged knowledge during the scenario process.

Elicitation of subjective crop yield PDF

En este trabajo se investiga la coherencia y confiabilidad de estimaciones de funciones de densidad de probabilidad (FDP) subjetivas de rendimientos de cultivos realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. Se utilizaron tres técnicas de elicitación diferentes: el método de estimación de FDP en dos pasos, la distribución Triangular y la distribución Beta. Los sujetos entrevistados ofrecieron estimaciones para los valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos (medio, máximo posible, más frecuente y mínimo posible) y para las FDP basadas en la estimación de intervalos. Para evaluar la persistencia, se utilizaron los conceptos de persistencia temporal y persistencia metodológica. Los resultados son interesantes para juzgar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas a los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Short communication. Persistence of point crop yield subjective estimates

En este trabajo se investiga la persistencia de las estimaciones puntuales subjetivas de rendimientos en cultivos anua- les realizadas por un amplio grupo de agricultores. La persistencia en el tiempo es una condición necesaria para la co- herencia y la confiabilidad de las estimaciones subjetivas de variables aleatorias. Los sujetos entrevistados estimaron valores puntuales de rendimientos de cultivos anuales (rendimientos medio, mayor, mínimo y más frecuente). Se han encontrado diferencias relativas poco importantes en todas las variables, excepto en los rendimientos mínimos, donde existe una alta dispersión. Los resultados son interesantes para estimar la adecuación de las técnicas de estimación de probabilidades subjetivas para ser utilizadas en los sistemas de ayuda en la toma de decisiones en agricultura.

Design,implementation and use of an Internet kiosk as an an information system for CNC machinists

Tätä diplomityötä sponsoroi suuri Isobritannialainen lentokoneteollisuudessa toimiva yritys, joka huomasi että globaalin tuotantostrategian ollessa painopisteenä ja tietoteknisten järjestelmien kuten CAD/CAM ollessa merkittävänä osana tuotantoa, on löydettävä ymmärrys siitä, mitkä ovat tuotannon tietojärjestelmien tarpeet ja onko niiden kehittämisestä hyötyä yritykselle.Diplomityössä selitetään Internet teknologiaan perustuvan kioskin kehittämisestä tietotukijärjestelmäksi tuotanto-osastolle, jossa valmistetaan moottorin osia CNC-koneilla. Kioskeissa on piirteitä, jotka voisivat osoittautua hyödyllisiksi myös tuotantoympäristöissä ja siksi tässä työssä tutkitaan kioskiin perustuvaa lähestymistapaa tuotantoympäristöön sovellettuna.Diplomityö kuvaa informaatiokioskin kehittämistä alkaen alkuvaatimusten keruusta tietojärjestelmää varten, tietojärjestelmän suunnittelu- ja kehitysvaiheen sekä lopuksi analysoi kioskin onnistuneisuutta tuotantoympäristössä käytettävyystutkimuksen avulla, joka suoritettiin sen jälkeen kun kioski oli implementoitu tehtaassa.Johtopäätökset osoittavat, että kioski on hyvin implementoitavissa tuotantoympäristöön ja todistaa, että tuotantoinformaation jakelu sähköisessä muodossa on huomattavasti tehokkaampaa kuin paperilla. Käyttäjien kommentit osoittavat että kioski on sopiva heidän tietotarpeisiinsa ja siitä on hyötyä heidän työlleen. Kioski tarjoaa hyötyjä tuotantotason lisäksi myös johtotasolle.

Emission Trading and Tradable Green Certificates Impacts on the Business Activity of Vattenfall Oy

Ihmisen toiminnan vaikutus ilmakehään johtaa todennäköisesti ilmastonmuutoksiin. Eräs näistä muutoksista on maapallon keskilämpötilan nousu, joka aiheutuu kasvihuonekaasujen lisääntyneestä pitoisuudesta ilmakehässä. Vaikutusten vähentämiseksi on hiilidioksidipäästöjä vähennettävä. Kioton pöytäkirja asettaa allekirjoittaneille maille päästövelvoitteet. Euroopan unionin tulee vähentää kasvihuonekaasupäästöjään 8%:lla. Eräs vähennysmekanismeista on päästökauppa. Päästökauppa on sekä keino suojella ympäristöä että ympäristöpoliittinen instrumentti kasvihuonekaasupäästövähennysten kustannusten keventämiseksi. Päästökauppa ei suoranaisesti vähennä kasvihuonekaasupäästöjä, vaan tasaa niitä maiden ja laitosten välillä. Uusiutuvan energian käytön edistäminen sekä kansainvälisesti että kansallisesti johtaa suoriin kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen vähenemiseen. Euroopan unionin jäsenvaltiot ovat asettaneet kansalliset viitearvot uusituvan sähkön kulutukselle. Saavuttaakseen nämä viitearvot maiden tulee tukea uusiutuvia energialähteitä eri menetelmin kuten vihreillä sertifikaateilla. Päästökauppa ja kaupattavat vihreät sertifikaatit tulevat vaikuttamaan energiantuottajien liiketoimintaan. Työssä on tutkittu päästökaupan ja vihreiden sertifikaattien vaikutuksia Vattenfall Kaukolämpö Oy:n, Vattenfall Sähköntuotanto Oy:n ja Vamy Oy:n liiketoimintaan.

Sähköinen liiketoiminta Kymenlaakson pk-yrityksissä 2003

Tämän työn tavoitteena oli kartoittaa Kymenlaakson pk-yritysten sähköisen liiketoiminnan nykyinen tilanne. Työssä selvitettiin myös merkittävimmät hyödyt ja esteet, jotka liittyvät sähköisen liiketoiminnan kehittymiseen maakunnassa. Lisäksi hahmotettiin sähköisen liiketoiminnan kehitysprosessin etenemistä pk-yrityksissä.Työ voidaan jakaa teoreettiseen ja empiiriseen osaan. Työn teoriaosuudessa tarkastellaan sähköisen liiketoiminnan sisältöä ja esitellään joitain tutkijoiden aiemmin esittämiä kehitysmalleja. Empiirinen osuus sisältää tutkimuksen, jonka avulla Kymenlaakson pk-yritysten nykyistä tilaa ja tulevaisuuden näkymiä kartoitettiin. Tehty tutkimus on myös perustana alkavalle eLiiketoiminta yrityksille -hankkeelle.Tutkimuksen tulosten mukaan Kymenlaakson pk-yritykset ovat kehittäneet kykyään hyödyntää tietotekniikkaa ja tietoverkkoja viimeisten vuosien aikana. Pk-yrityksillä on myös paljon haluja ja tarpeita kehitykseen, mutta esteiksi nousevat usein tiedon, resurssien ja ajanpuute. Yritysten tarpeisiin voidaan tehokkaasti vastata tarjoamalla lisää tietoa, koulutusta ja parempia tukijärjestelmiä.

External assessment of the Early Mortality Risk Score in patients with adenocarcinoma undergoing pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: Pancreaticoduodenectomies (PD) still have a substantial mortality rate. Recently, different scores have been published to predict the mortality risk pre-operatively after PD. This retrospective study was designed to perform an external assessment of an Early Mortality Risk Score (EMRS). METHODS: From 2000 to 2012, all PD cases performed at our institution were documented. Only patients treated for pancreatic head adenocarcinomas were included. Survival time and EMRS (based on age, tumour size, tumour differentiation and comorbidities) were calculated for every patient. Relative risks (RR) of early death 9 and 12 months after PD were then calculated. RESULTS: Of 270 PD for various aetiologies, 120 PD for adenocarcinomas were included. The median follow-up was 37 months, and the overall median survival was 19 months. EMRS of 4 showed a mortality RR of 5.1 at 9 months (P = 0.048) and of 4.5 at 12 months (P = 0.020). CONCLUSIONS: EMRS of 4 is a predictor of tumour-related mortality at 9 and 12 months after PD for adenocarcinoma. The EMRS was externally assessed in our patient cohort and can be implemented in clinical practice. Clinical implications of this score still need to be studied.

Communication du risque en médecine des voyages [Risk communication in travel medicine].

Les recommandations en termes de prévention contre la malaria pour les pays à risques modéré à faible diffèrent entre les pays, malgré le fait que les personnes soient exposées à un risque identique dans les pays qu'ils visitent. Pour inclure les voyageurs dans la réflexion, des outils de partage de la décision ont été développés et testés dans cette population. Leur utilisation a montré que la majorité des personnes choisissent de ne pas prendre de chimioprophylaxie en avançant des raisons valides. Le développement d'aides décisionnelles répondant à des critères reconnus est prévu et permettra d'améliorer la pertinence des recommandations. Les aides décisionnelles permettront aussi aux voyageurs de faire un choix de prévention avec les soignants au plus près de leurs valeurs et préférences, tout en respectant les règles de l'éthique médicale. Recommendations for malaria prevention for travelers planning a trip in medium to low risk countries differ between countries, despite the fact that people are exposed to the same risk in the travelled country. Decision aids have been developed and tested in a population of travelers planning a trip in such countries n order to present travelers the various prevention options and involve them in the decision. The use of the decision aid showed that he majority of people choose not to take chemoprophylaxis and that they could motivate their choice with valid reasons. The development of decision aids based on recognized quality criteria is foreseen; these will allow to improving the relevance of the recommendations and enable travelers to choose a prevention option that will be the closest to their values and preferences while following to the principles of medical ethics.