Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Estimation of R(0) from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

The magnitude of the basic reproduction ratio R(0) of an epidemic can be estimated in several ways, namely, from the final size of the epidemic, from the average age at first infection, or from the initial growth phase of the outbreak. In this paper, we discuss this last method for estimating R(0) for vector-borne infections. Implicit in these models is the assumption that there is an exponential phase of the outbreaks, which implies that in all cases R(0) > 1. We demonstrate that an outbreak is possible, even in cases where R(0) is less than one, provided that the vector-to-human component of R(0) is greater than one and that a certain number of infected vectors are introduced into the affected population. This theory is applied to two real epidemiological dengue situations in the southeastern part of Brazil, one where R(0) is less than one, and other one where R(0) is greater than one. In both cases, the model mirrors the real situations with reasonable accuracy.

Recreational fishing: Its expansion, its economic value and aquaculture's role in sustaining it

Economic growth usually leads to a substantial increase in the demand for recreational fishing, and China is likely to follow this trend. Factors influencing this expansion in demand are identified. Recreational fishing is of major economic importance in higher income countries and indicators of its economic significance are given. Growing demand for recreational fishing results in intensified involvement of recreational fishers in conflicts about resource use. With increasing demand for recreational fishing, recreational fishers face growing competition with one another for limited fish stocks and with commercial fishers. Their concerns for environmental threats to fish stocks also intensify. Furthermore, some strategies of recreational fishers are increasingly criticised by conservationists. Governments, therefore, are put under pressure to adopt policies to address these conflicts. Some of the policy measures adopted to help sustain the fisheries and reduce conflict are outlined. These include limits on the catch and exclusive zones for recreational fishing. However, wild stocks of fish are likely to remain under mounting harvesting and other pressures. Therefore, we need to consider the role that aquaculture can play in overcoming these problems. The possible ways in which aquaculture can do this are outlined and discussed.

EFFECT OF METAL PRIMERS ON MICROTENSILE BOND STRENGTH BETWEEN ZIRCONIA AND RESIN CEMENTS

Statement of problem. There are no established clinical procedures for bonding zirconia to tooth structure using resin cements. Purpose. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of metal primers, resin cements, and aging on bonding to zirconia. Material and methods. Zirconia was treated with commercial primers developed for bonding to metal alloys (Metaltite, Metal Primer II, Alloy Primer or Totalbond). Non-primed specimens were considered as controls. One-hundred disk-shaped specimens (19 x 4 mm) were cemented to composite resin substrates using Panavia or RelyX Unicem (n=5). Microtensile bond strength specimens were tested after 48 hours and 5 months (150 days), and failure modes were classified as type 1 (between ceramic/cement), 2 (between composite resin/cement) or 3 (mixed). Data were analyzed by 3-way ANOVA and Multiple Comparison Tukey test (alpha=.05). Results. The interactions primer/luting system (P=.016) and luting system/storage time (P=.004) were statistically significant. The use of Alloy Primer significantly improved the bond strength of RelyX Unicem (P<.001), while for Panavia, none of the primers increased the bond strength compared to the control group. At 48 hours, Panavia had statistically higher bond strength (P=.004) than Unicem (13.9 +/- 4.4MPa and 10.2 +/- 6.6MPa, respectively). However, both luting systems presented decreasing, statistically similar; values after aging (Panavia: 3.6 +/- 2.2MPa; Unicem: 6.1 +/- 5.3MPa). At 48 hours, Alloy Primer/Unicem had the lowest incidence of type 1 failure (8%). After aging, all the groups showed a predominance of type 1 failures. Conclusions. The use of Alloy Primer improved bond strength between RelyX Unicem and zirconia. Though the initial values obtained with Panavia were significantly higher than RelyX Unicem, after aging, both luting agents presented statistically similar performances. (J Prosthet Dent 2011;105:296-303)

The history and value of the elephant in Sri Lankan society

Reviews the literature to provide an overview of the historical significance of the elephant in Sri Lankan society, an association which dates back more than 4,000 years. The present status of this relationship assessed on the basis of the findings of a recent study undertaken on the total economic value of elephants in Sri Lanka. This paper, first briefly outlines the history, evolution, nature and their distribution of the Asian elephant while providing some insights on the status of the elephant (Elephas maxima maxima) in Sri Lanka. Next, it reviews the literature in order to assess the historical affiliation that the elephant has maintained with the Sri Lankan society, its culture, history, mythology and religion. The empirical evidence on the economic value of conservation of the remaining elephant population in Sri Lanka is reviewed and the Sri Lankan people’s attitudes towards conserving this species of wildlife. Literature reviewed and analysis undertaken indicates that the elephant in Sri Lanka, still, as in the past has a special place in Sri Lankan society, particularly, in its culture, religion and value system. Thus, there is a strong case for ensuring the survival of wild elephant population in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, it also suggests that the community as a whole will experience a net benefit from ensuring the survival of wild elephants in Sri Lanka.

The mu-way intersection problem for m-cycle systems

An m-cycle system of order upsilon is a partition of the edge-set of a complete graph of order upsilon into m-cycles. The mu -way intersection problem for m-cycle systems involves taking mu systems, based on the same vertex set, and determining the possible number of cycles which can be common to all mu systems. General results for arbitrary m are obtained, and detailed intersection values for (mu, m) = (3, 4), (4, 5),(4, 6), (4, 7), (8, 8), (8, 9). (For the case (mu, m)= (2, m), see Billington (J. Combin. Des. 1 (1993) 435); for the case (Cc,m)=(3,3), see Milici and Quattrochi (Ars Combin. A 24 (1987) 175. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.