922 resultados para Informative Censoring


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The interaction between sibling species that share a zone of contact is a multifaceted relationship affected by climate change [ 1, 2 ]. Between sibling species, interactions may occur at whole-organism (direct or indirect competition) or genomic (hybridization and introgression) levels [ 3–5 ]. Tracking hybrid zone movements can provide insights about influences of environmental change on species interactions [ 1 ]. Here, we explore the extent and mechanism of movement of the contact zone between black-capped chickadees (Poecile atricapillus) and Carolina chickadees (Poecile carolinensis) at whole-organism and genomic levels. We find strong evidence that winter temperatures limit the northern extent of P. carolinensis by demonstrating a current-day association between the range limit of this species and minimum winter temperatures. We further show that this temperature limitation has been consistent over time because we are able to accurately hindcast the previous northern range limit under earlier climate conditions. Using genomic data, we confirm northward movement of this contact zone over the past decade and highlight temporally consistent differential—but limited—geographic introgression of alleles. Our results provide an informative example of the influence of climate change on a contact zone between sibling species.

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Przewalski's horses (PHs, Equus ferus ssp. przewalskii) were discovered in the Asian steppes in the 1870s and represent the last remaining true wild horses. PHs became extinct in the wild in the 1960s but survived in captivity, thanks to major conservation efforts. The current population is still endangered, with just 2,109 individuals, one-quarter of which are in Chinese and Mongolian reintroduction reserves [1]. These horses descend from a founding population of 12 wild-caught PHs and possibly up to four domesticated individuals [2-4]. With a stocky build, an erect mane, and stripped and short legs, they are phenotypically and behaviorally distinct from domesticated horses (DHs, Equus caballus). Here, we sequenced the complete genomes of 11 PHs, representing all founding lineages, and five historical specimens dated to 1878-1929 CE, including the Holotype. These were compared to the hitherto-most-extensive genome dataset characterized for horses, comprising 21 new genomes. We found that loci showing the most genetic differentiation with DHs were enriched in genes involved in metabolism, cardiac disorders, muscle contraction, reproduction, behavior, and signaling pathways. We also show that DH and PH populations split ∼45,000 years ago and have remained connected by gene-flow thereafter. Finally, we monitor the genomic impact of ∼110 years of captivity, revealing reduced heterozygosity, increased inbreeding, and variable introgression of domestic alleles, ranging from non-detectable to as much as 31.1%. This, together with the identification of ancestry informative markers and corrections to the International Studbook, establishes a framework for evaluating the persistence of genetic variation in future reintroduced populations.

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In contact shots, the muzzle imprint is an informative finding associated with the entrance wound. It typically mirrors the constructional components being in line with the muzzle or just behind. Under special conditions, other patterned skin marks located near a gunshot entrance wound may give the impression to be part of the muzzle imprint. A potential mechanism causing a patterned pressure abrasion in close proximity to the bullet entrance site is demonstrated on the basis of a suicidal shot to the temple. The skin lesion in question appeared as a ring-shaped excoriation with a diameter corresponding to that of the cartridge case. Two hypotheses concerning the causative mechanism were investigated by test shots: - After being ejected, the cartridge case ricocheted inside a confined space (car cabin in the particular case) and secondarily hit the skin near the gunshot entrance wound. - The ejection of the cartridge case failed so that the case became stuck in the ejection port and its mouth contacted the skin when the body collapsed after being hit.

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Climate change, declines in biodiversity, increasing consumption of resources, urbanisation, urban sprawl and demographic change continue to challenge theregions of Europe. In response to these processes of regional and global change, there has been an unmistakeable boom in parks in Europe since the 1990s. Morethan a fifth of the continent is now protected using designations such as regionalnature parks, national parks, UNESCO Biosphere Reserves and World Heritagesites. The responsibilities of these areas are usually diverse and, in addition tonature protection and the conservation of cultural landscapes, increasingly involvethe promotion of sustainable development. In the 22 chapters of this volume, 28 authors from all over Europe analyse and comment on experiences of tackling the challenges of regional and global changein parks. They illustrate discussions with selected case studies and deal with keyissues of current protected area policy: How do parks address the pending challengesand what successes have they had thus far? What pioneering approaches are there in spatial planning and regional development? Which forms of park managementand governance are most promising? This informative and well-illustratedbook also considers which tasks will be assumed by parks in the future and whatroles parks may play in the debate concerning transformations required to promotesustainability in Europe.

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Pairwise meta-analysis is an established statistical tool for synthesizing evidence from multiple trials, but it is informative only about the relative efficacy of two specific interventions. The usefulness of pairwise meta-analysis is thus limited in real-life medical practice, where many competing interventions may be available for a certain condition and studies informing some of the pairwise comparisons may be lacking. This commonly encountered scenario has led to the development of network meta-analysis (NMA). In the last decade, several applications, methodological developments, and empirical studies in NMA have been published, and the area is thriving as its relevance to public health is increasingly recognized. This article presents a review of the relevant literature on NMA methodology aiming to pinpoint the developments that have appeared in the field. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Bargaining is the building block of many economic interactions, ranging from bilateral to multilateral encounters and from situations in which the actors are individuals to negotiations between firms or countries. In all these settings, economists have been intrigued for a long time by the fact that some projects, trades or agreements are not realized even though they are mutually beneficial. On the one hand, this has been explained by incomplete information. A firm may not be willing to offer a wage that is acceptable to a qualified worker, because it knows that there are also unqualified workers and cannot distinguish between the two types. This phenomenon is known as adverse selection. On the other hand, it has been argued that even with complete information, the presence of externalities may impede efficient outcomes. To see this, consider the example of climate change. If a subset of countries agrees to curb emissions, non-participant regions benefit from the signatories’ efforts without incurring costs. These free riding opportunities give rise to incentives to strategically improve ones bargaining power that work against the formation of a global agreement. This thesis is concerned with extending our understanding of both factors, adverse selection and externalities. The findings are based on empirical evidence from original laboratory experiments as well as game theoretic modeling. On a very general note, it is demonstrated that the institutions through which agents interact matter to a large extent. Insights are provided about which institutions we should expect to perform better than others, at least in terms of aggregate welfare. Chapters 1 and 2 focus on the problem of adverse selection. Effective operation of markets and other institutions often depends on good information transmission properties. In terms of the example introduced above, a firm is only willing to offer high wages if it receives enough positive signals about the worker’s quality during the application and wage bargaining process. In Chapter 1, it will be shown that repeated interaction coupled with time costs facilitates information transmission. By making the wage bargaining process costly for the worker, the firm is able to obtain more accurate information about the worker’s type. The cost could be pure time cost from delaying agreement or cost of effort arising from a multi-step interviewing process. In Chapter 2, I abstract from time cost and show that communication can play a similar role. The simple fact that a worker states to be of high quality may be informative. In Chapter 3, the focus is on a different source of inefficiency. Agents strive for bargaining power and thus may be motivated by incentives that are at odds with the socially efficient outcome. I have already mentioned the example of climate change. Other examples are coalitions within committees that are formed to secure voting power to block outcomes or groups that commit to different technological standards although a single standard would be optimal (e.g. the format war between HD and BlueRay). It will be shown that such inefficiencies are directly linked to the presence of externalities and a certain degree of irreversibility in actions. I now discuss the three articles in more detail. In Chapter 1, Olivier Bochet and I study a simple bilateral bargaining institution that eliminates trade failures arising from incomplete information. In this setting, a buyer makes offers to a seller in order to acquire a good. Whenever an offer is rejected by the seller, the buyer may submit a further offer. Bargaining is costly, because both parties suffer a (small) time cost after any rejection. The difficulties arise, because the good can be of low or high quality and the quality of the good is only known to the seller. Indeed, without the possibility to make repeated offers, it is too risky for the buyer to offer prices that allow for trade of high quality goods. When allowing for repeated offers, however, at equilibrium both types of goods trade with probability one. We provide an experimental test of these predictions. Buyers gather information about sellers using specific price offers and rates of trade are high, much as the model’s qualitative predictions. We also observe a persistent over-delay before trade occurs, and this mitigates efficiency substantially. Possible channels for over-delay are identified in the form of two behavioral assumptions missing from the standard model, loss aversion (buyers) and haggling (sellers), which reconcile the data with the theoretical predictions. Chapter 2 also studies adverse selection, but interaction between buyers and sellers now takes place within a market rather than isolated pairs. Remarkably, in a market it suffices to let agents communicate in a very simple manner to mitigate trade failures. The key insight is that better informed agents (sellers) are willing to truthfully reveal their private information, because by doing so they are able to reduce search frictions and attract more buyers. Behavior observed in the experimental sessions closely follows the theoretical predictions. As a consequence, costless and non-binding communication (cheap talk) significantly raises rates of trade and welfare. Previous experiments have documented that cheap talk alleviates inefficiencies due to asymmetric information. These findings are explained by pro-social preferences and lie aversion. I use appropriate control treatments to show that such consideration play only a minor role in our market. Instead, the experiment highlights the ability to organize markets as a new channel through which communication can facilitate trade in the presence of private information. In Chapter 3, I theoretically explore coalition formation via multilateral bargaining under complete information. The environment studied is extremely rich in the sense that the model allows for all kinds of externalities. This is achieved by using so-called partition functions, which pin down a coalitional worth for each possible coalition in each possible coalition structure. It is found that although binding agreements can be written, efficiency is not guaranteed, because the negotiation process is inherently non-cooperative. The prospects of cooperation are shown to crucially depend on i) the degree to which players can renegotiate and gradually build up agreements and ii) the absence of a certain type of externalities that can loosely be described as incentives to free ride. Moreover, the willingness to concede bargaining power is identified as a novel reason for gradualism. Another key contribution of the study is that it identifies a strong connection between the Core, one of the most important concepts in cooperative game theory, and the set of environments for which efficiency is attained even without renegotiation.

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OBJECTIVES To assess the presence of within-group comparisons with baseline in a subset of leading dental journals and to explore possible associations with a range of study characteristics including journal and study design. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Thirty consecutive issues of five leading dental journals were electronically searched. The conduct and reporting of statistical analysis in respect of comparisons against baseline or otherwise along with the manner of interpretation of the results were assessed. Descriptive statistics were obtained, and chi-square test and Fisher's exact were undertaken to test the association between trial characteristics and overall study interpretation. RESULTS A total of 184 studies were included with the highest proportion published in Journal of Endodontics (n = 84, 46%) and most involving a single center (n = 157, 85%). Overall, 43 studies (23%) presented interpretation of their outcomes based solely on comparisons against baseline. Inappropriate use of baseline testing was found to be less likely in interventional studies (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION Use of comparisons with baseline appears to be common among both observational and interventional research studies in dentistry. Enhanced conduct and reporting of statistical tests are required to ensure that inferences from research studies are appropriate and informative.

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Cet article se propose d’étudier les relations entre les figures et les registres discursifs définis comme des matrices d’écriture qui conditionnent la tonalité des discours. Nous verrons d’abord comment, par leur saillance et leur densité informative, les figures donnent une portée accrue à la mise en texte des registres. Nous nous interrogerons par ailleurs sur les motivations qui incitent les figures à s’intégrer dans les registres. Si certaines d’entre elles offrent une forte affinité avec ces derniers (comme l’hyperbole avec le registre épidictique), d’autres figures – telle la métaphore – ne doivent leur présence dans les registres qu’à des facteurs contextuels. Nous examinerons ensuite comment les figures participent à la construction ou à la déconstruction d’effets-registres dans le déroulement des textes, avant d’analyser l’influence des genres dans l’interaction entre figures et registres. Au bout du compte, cet article confirme la nature pragmatique des figures, dans la mesure où leur fonctionnalité provient en partie des rapports qu’elles entretiennent avec leur cadre tonal et illocutoire constitué par les registres.

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Purpose In recent years, selective retina laser treatment (SRT), a sub-threshold therapy method, avoids widespread damage to all retinal layers by targeting only a few. While these methods facilitate faster healing, their lack of visual feedback during treatment represents a considerable shortcoming as induced lesions remain invisible with conventional imaging and make clinical use challenging. To overcome this, we present a new strategy to provide location-specific and contact-free automatic feedback of SRT laser applications. Methods We leverage time-resolved optical coherence tomography (OCT) to provide informative feedback to clinicians on outcomes of location-specific treatment. By coupling an OCT system to SRT treatment laser, we visualize structural changes in the retinal layers as they occur via time-resolved depth images. We then propose a novel strategy for automatic assessment of such time-resolved OCT images. To achieve this, we introduce novel image features for this task that when combined with standard machine learning classifiers yield excellent treatment outcome classification capabilities. Results Our approach was evaluated on both ex vivo porcine eyes and human patients in a clinical setting, yielding performances above 95 % accuracy for predicting patient treatment outcomes. In addition, we show that accurate outcomes for human patients can be estimated even when our method is trained using only ex vivo porcine data. Conclusion The proposed technique presents a much needed strategy toward noninvasive, safe, reliable, and repeatable SRT applications. These results are encouraging for the broader use of new treatment options for neovascularization-based retinal pathologies.

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Up to 10% of all breast and ovarian cancers are attributable to mutations in cancer susceptibility genes. Clinical genetic testing for deleterious gene mutations that predispose to hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC) syndrome is available. Mutation carriers may benefit from following high-risk guidelines for cancer prevention and early detection; however, few studies have reported the uptake of clinical genetic testing for HBOC. This study identified predictors of HBOC genetic testing uptake among a case series of 268 women who underwent genetic counseling at The University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center from October, 1996, through July, 2000. Women completed a baseline questionnaire that measured psychosocial and demographic variables. Additional medical characteristics were obtained from the medical charts. Logistic regression modeling identified predictors of participation in HBOC genetic testing. Psychological variables were hypothesized to be the strongest predictors of testing uptake—in particular, one's readiness (intention) to have testing. Testing uptake among all women in this study was 37% (n = 99). Contrary to the hypotheses, one's actual risk of carrying a BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene mutation was the strongest predictor of testing participation (OR = 15.37, CI = 5.15, 45.86). Other predictors included religious background, greater readiness to have testing, knowledge about HBOC and genetic testing, not having female children, and adherence to breast self-exam. Among the subgroup of women who were at ≥10% risk of carrying a mutation, 51% (n = 90) had genetic testing. Consistent with the hypotheses, predictors of testing participation in the high-risk subgroup included greater readiness to have testing, knowledge, and greater self-efficacy regarding one's ability to cope with test results. Women with CES-D scores ≥16, indicating the presence of depressive symptoms, were less likely to have genetic testing. Results indicate that among women with a wide range of risk for HBOC, actual risk of carrying an HBOC-predisposing mutation may be the strongest predictor of their decision to have genetic testing. Psychological variables (e.g., distress and self-efficacy) may influence testing participation only among women at highest risk of carrying a mutation, for whom genetic testing is most likely to be informative. ^

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With hundreds of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a candidate gene and millions of SNPs across the genome, selecting an informative subset of SNPs to maximize the ability to detect genotype-phenotype association is of great interest and importance. In addition, with a large number of SNPs, analytic methods are needed that allow investigators to control the false positive rate resulting from large numbers of SNP genotype-phenotype analyses. This dissertation uses simulated data to explore methods for selecting SNPs for genotype-phenotype association studies. I examined the pattern of linkage disequilibrium (LD) across a candidate gene region and used this pattern to aid in localizing a disease-influencing mutation. The results indicate that the r2 measure of linkage disequilibrium is preferred over the common D′ measure for use in genotype-phenotype association studies. Using step-wise linear regression, the best predictor of the quantitative trait was not usually the single functional mutation. Rather it was a SNP that was in high linkage disequilibrium with the functional mutation. Next, I compared three strategies for selecting SNPs for application to phenotype association studies: based on measures of linkage disequilibrium, based on a measure of haplotype diversity, and random selection. The results demonstrate that SNPs selected based on maximum haplotype diversity are more informative and yield higher power than randomly selected SNPs or SNPs selected based on low pair-wise LD. The data also indicate that for genes with small contribution to the phenotype, it is more prudent for investigators to increase their sample size than to continuously increase the number of SNPs in order to improve statistical power. When typing large numbers of SNPs, researchers are faced with the challenge of utilizing an appropriate statistical method that controls the type I error rate while maintaining adequate power. We show that an empirical genotype based multi-locus global test that uses permutation testing to investigate the null distribution of the maximum test statistic maintains a desired overall type I error rate while not overly sacrificing statistical power. The results also show that when the penetrance model is simple the multi-locus global test does as well or better than the haplotype analysis. However, for more complex models, haplotype analyses offer advantages. The results of this dissertation will be of utility to human geneticists designing large-scale multi-locus genotype-phenotype association studies. ^

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Economists and other social scientists often face situations where they have access to two datasets that they can use but one set of data suffers from censoring or truncation. If the censored sample is much bigger than the uncensored sample, it is common for researchers to use the censored sample alone and attempt to deal with the problem of partial observation in some manner. Alternatively, they simply use only the uncensored sample and ignore the censored one so as to avoid biases. It is rarely the case that researchers use both datasets together, mainly because they lack guidance about how to combine them. In this paper, we develop a tractable semiparametric framework for combining the censored and uncensored datasets so that the resulting estimators are consistent, asymptotically normal, and use all information optimally. When the censored sample, which we refer to as the master sample, is much bigger than the uncensored sample (which we call the refreshment sample), the latter can be thought of as providing identification where it is otherwise absent. In contrast, when the refreshment sample is large and could typically be used alone, our methodology can be interpreted as using information from the censored sample to increase effciency. To illustrate our results in an empirical setting, we show how to estimate the effect of changes in compulsory schooling laws on age at first marriage, a variable that is censored for younger individuals. We also demonstrate how refreshment samples for this application can be created by matching cohort information across census datasets.

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Many studies have shown relationships between air pollution and the rate of hospital admissions for asthma. A few studies have controlled for age-specific effects by adding separate smoothing functions for each age group. However, it has not yet been reported whether air pollution effects are significantly different for different age groups. This lack of information is the motivation for this study, which tests the hypothesis that air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admissions are significantly different by age groups. Each air pollutant's effect on asthmatic hospital admissions by age groups was estimated separately. In this study, daily time-series data for hospital admission rates from seven cities in Korea from June 1999 through 2003 were analyzed. The outcome variable, daily hospital admission rates for asthma, was related to five air pollutants which were used as the independent variables, namely particulate matter <10 micrometers (μm) in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2). Meteorological variables were considered as confounders. Admission data were divided into three age groups: children (<15 years of age), adults (ages 15-64), and elderly (≥ 65 years of age). The adult age group was considered to be the reference group for each city. In order to estimate age-specific air pollution effects, the analysis was separated into two stages. In the first stage, Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) with cubic spline for smoothing were applied to estimate the age-city-specific air pollution effects on asthmatic hospital admission rates by city and age group. In the second stage, the Bayesian Hierarchical Model with non-informative prior which has large variance was used to combine city-specific effects by age groups. The hypothesis test showed that the effects of PM10, CO and NO2 were significantly different by age groups. Assuming that the air pollution effect for adults is zero as a reference, age-specific air pollution effects were: -0.00154 (95% confidence interval(CI)= (-0.0030,-0.0001)) for children and 0.00126 (95% CI = (0.0006, 0.0019)) for the elderly for PM 10; -0.0195 (95% CI = (-0.0386,-0.0004)) for children for CO; and 0.00494 (95% CI = (0.0028, 0.0071)) for the elderly for NO2. Relative rates (RRs) were 1.008 (95% CI = (1.000-1.017)) in adults and 1.021 (95% CI = (1.012-1.030)) in the elderly for every 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10 , 1.019 (95% CI = (1.005-1.033)) in adults and 1.022 (95% CI = (1.012-1.033)) in the elderly for every 0.1 part per million (ppm) increase of CO; 1.006 (95%CI = (1.002-1.009)) and 1.019 (95%CI = (1.007-1.032)) in the elderly for every 1 part per billion (ppb) increase of NO2 and SO2, respectively. Asthma hospital admissions were significantly increased for PM10 and CO in adults, and for PM10, CO, NO2 and SO2 in the elderly.^

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Research provides evidence of the positive health effects associated with regular physical activity participation in all populations. Activity may prove to be especially beneficial in those with chronic conditions such as cancer. However, the majority of cancer patients and survivors do not participate in the recommended amount of physical activity. The purpose of this dissertation was to identify factors associated with physical activity participation, describe how these factors change as result of a diet and exercise intervention, and to evaluate correlates of long term physical activity maintenance. ^ For this dissertation, I analyzed data from the FRESH START trial, a randomized, single-blind, phase II clinical trial focused on improving diet and physical activity among recently diagnosed breast and prostate cancer survivors. Analyses included both parametric and non-parametric statistical tests. Three separate studies were conducted, with sample sizes ranging from 400 to 486. ^ Common barriers to exercise, such as “no willpower,” “too busy,” and “I have pain,” were reported among breast and prostate cancer survivors; however, these barriers were not significantly associated with minutes of physical activity. Breast cancer survivors reported a greater number of total barriers to exercise as well as higher proportions reporting individual barriers, compared to prostate cancer survivors. Just less than half of participants reduced their total number of barriers to exercise from baseline to 1-year follow-up, and those who did reduce barriers reported greater increases in minutes of physical activity compared to those who reported no change in barriers to exercise. Participants in both the tailored and standardized intervention groups reported greater minutes of physical activity at 2-year follow-up compared to baseline. Overall, twelve percent of participants reached recommended levels of physical activity at both 1- and 2-year follow-up. Self-efficacy was positively associated with physical activity maintenance, and the number of total barriers to exercise was inversely associated with physical activity maintenance. ^ Results from this dissertation are novel and informative, and will help to guide future physical activity interventions among cancer survivors. Thoughtfully designed interventions may encourage greater participation in physical activity and ultimately improve overall quality of life in this population. ^

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Among Mexican Americans, the second largest minority group in the United States, the prevalence of gallbladder disease is markedly elevated. Previous data from both genetic admixture and family studies indicate that there is a genetic component to the occurrence of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans. However, prior to this thesis no formal genetic analysis of gallbladder disease had been carried out nor had any contributing genes been identified.^ The results of complex segregation analysis in a sample of 232 Mexican American pedigrees documented the existence of a major gene having two alleles with age- and gender-specific effects influencing the occurrence of gallbladder disease. The estimated frequency of the allele increasing susceptibility was 0.39. The lifetime probabilities that an individual will be affected by gallbladder disease were 1.0, 0.54, and 0.00 for females of genotypes "AA", "Aa", and "aa", respectively, and 0.68, 0.30, and 0.00 for males, respectively. This analysis provided the first conclusive evidence for the existence of a common single gene having a large effect on the occurrence of gallbladder disease.^ Human cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase is the rate-limiting enzyme in bile acid synthesis. The results of an association study in both a random sample and a matched case/control sample showed that there is a significant association between cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene variation and the occurrence of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans males but not in females. These data have implicated a specific gene, 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase, in the etiology of gallbladder disease in this population.^ Finally, I asked whether the inferred major gene from complex segregation analysis is genetically linked to the cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene. Three pedigrees predicted to be informative for linkage analysis by virtue of supporting the major gene hypothesis and having parents with informative genotypes and multiple offspring were selected for this linkage analysis. In each of these pedigrees, the recombination fractions maximized at 0 with a positive, albeit low, LOD score. The results of this linkage analysis provide preliminary and suggestive evidence that the cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene and the inferred gallbladder disease susceptibility gene are genetically linked. ^