Towards a model for exploring the relationship between managerial decision problems and decision support opportunities

The organisational decision making environment is complex, and decision makers must deal with uncertainty and ambiguity on a continuous basis. Managing and handling decision problems and implementing a solution, requires an understanding of the complexity of the decision domain to the point where the problem and its complexity, as well as the requirements for supporting decision makers, can be described. Research in the Decision Support Systems domain has been extensive over the last thirty years with an emphasis on the development of further technology and better applications on the one hand, and on the other hand, a social approach focusing on understanding what decision making is about and how developers and users should interact. This research project considers a combined approach that endeavours to understand the thinking behind managers’ decision making, as well as their informational and decisional guidance and decision support requirements. This research utilises a cognitive framework, developed in 1985 by Humphreys and Berkeley that juxtaposes the mental processes and ideas of decision problem definition and problem solution that are developed in tandem through cognitive refinement of the problem, based on the analysis and judgement of the decision maker. The framework facilitates the separation of what is essentially a continuous process, into five distinct levels of abstraction of manager’s thinking, and suggests a structure for the underlying cognitive activities. Alter (2004) argues that decision support provides a richer basis than decision support systems, in both practice and research. The constituent literature on decision support, especially in regard to modern high profile systems, including Business Intelligence and Business analytics, can give the impression that all ‘smart’ organisations utilise decision support and data analytics capabilities for all of their key decision making activities. However this empirical investigation indicates a very different reality.

James Fitzpiers Fitzgerald, Captain Thomas Lee, and the problem of ‘secret traitors’: conflicted loyalties during the Nine Years’ War, 1594-1603

Existing evidence pertaining to Ireland’s Nine Years’ War (1594–1603) strongly lends itself to the impression that the majority of Old English Palesmen, at least those of higher social status, chose to support the English crown during this conflict rather than their co-religionist Gaelic Irish countrymen. Loyalties, however, were anything but straightforward and could depend on any number of cultural values, social concerns, and economic incentives. Nevertheless, James Fitzpiers Fitzgerald, a ‘Bastard Geraldine’ who served as sheriff of Kildare, seemed to have been driven by a genuine sense of duty to the English crown and establishment. With the outbreak of hostilities in the 1590s, Fitzpiers proved to be a devout crown servitor, risking life and limb to confront the English queen’s Irish enemies. But, in late 1598 he suddenly, and somewhat inexplicably, threw his lot in with the Irish confederacy, defying the government he had once championed. During the ensuing investigation, the Dublin administration accumulated much damning evidence against Fitzpiers, including a patriotic plea from rebel leader Hugh O’Neill which urged Fitzpiers to defend his Irish homeland from the oppressions of English Protestant rule. Yet, at the very same time, a counter case was made by Fitzpiers’s controversial English friend, Captain Thomas Lee, which argued that Fitzpiers’s actions were more loyal than anyone could have imagined. Through an examination of Fitzpiers’s perplexing case, this paper will explore the complicated nature of allegiances in 1590s Ireland and how loyalties were not always what they seemed.

Responsiveness and clinical utility of the geriatric self-efficacy index for urinary incontinence

OBJECTIVES: To report on the responsiveness testing and clinical utility of the 12-item Geriatric Self-Efficacy Index for Urinary Incontinence (GSE-UI). DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Six urinary incontinence (UI) outpatient clinics in Quebec, Canada. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling incontinent adults aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: The abridged 12-item GSE-UI, measuring older adults' level of confidence for preventing urine loss, was administered to all new consecutive incontinent patients 1 week before their initial clinic visit, at baseline, and 3 months posttreatment. At follow-up, a positive rating of improvement in UI was ascertained from patients and their physicians using the Patient's and Clinician's Global Impression of Improvement scales, respectively. Responsiveness of the GSE-UI was calculated using Guyatt's change index. Its clinical utility was determined using receiver operating curves. RESULTS: Eighty-nine of 228 eligible patients (39.0%) participated (mean age 72.6+5.8, range 65–90). At 3-month follow-up, 22.5% of patients were very much better, and 41.6% were a little or much better. Guyatt's change index was 2.6 for patients who changed by a clinically meaningful amount and 1.5 for patients having experienced any level of improvement. An improvement of 14 points on the 12-item GSE-UI had a sensitivity of 75.1% and a specificity of 78.2% for detecting clinically meaningful changes in UI status. Mean GSE-UI scores varied according to improvement status (P<.001) and correlated with changes in quality-of-life scores (r=0.7, P<.001) and reductions in UI episodes (r=0.4, P=.004). CONCLUSION: The GSE-UI is responsive and clinically useful.

Jour de fête!

Travail créatif / Creative Work

Seawater carbonate chemistry, and Lithophyllum sp. and Feldmannia spp. coverage and dry weight during experiments, 2009

Climate-driven change represents the cumulative effect of global through local-scale conditions, and understanding their manifestation at local scales can empower local management. Change in the dominance of habitats is often the product of local nutrient pollution that occurs at relatively local scales (i.e. catchment scale), a critical scale of management at which global impacts will manifest. We tested whether forecasted global-scale change [elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and subsequent ocean acidification] and local stressors (elevated nutrients) can combine to accelerate the expansion of filamentous turfs at the expense of calcifying algae (kelp understorey). Our results not only support this model of future change, but also highlight the synergistic effects of future CO2 and nutrient concentrations on the abundance of turfs. These results suggest that global and local stressors need to be assessed in meaningful combinations so that the anticipated effects of climate change do not create the false impression that, however complex, climate change will produce smaller effects than reality. These findings empower local managers because they show that policies of reducing local stressors (e.g. nutrient pollution) can reduce the effects of global stressors not under their governance (e.g. ocean acidification). The connection between research and government policy provides an example whereby knowledge (and decision making) across local through global scales provides solutions to some of the most vexing challenges for attaining social goals of sustainability, biological conservation and economic development.

Carbon14 ages of surface sediment samples from ther Persian Gulf

A simplified classification of the Holocene sediments based on textures and grain type results in fourteen major units, twelve of which are essentially carbonate in composition. A brief description and photographic illustration of these units, together with the sedimentary and diagenetic processes which have contributed to their formation, is designed to give the reader a broad but valid impression of Persian Gulf sediments. The distribution of the fourteen sediment units throughout the Arabian parts of the basin, although complicated by numerous local bathymetric highs and depressions, is relatively simple. Because the Arabian sea floor slopes progressively from a windward shoreline to the basin center there is increasing protection from wave action towards the center of the basin. As a result sediments grade from skeletal, oolitic and pelletoidal sands (and muds in coastal lagoons) and fringing reefs, through an irregular zone of compound grain sands,into widespread skeletal muddy sands, and finally into basin center muds. These simple relationships vary laterally around the Arabian side of the gulf. Lateral variation is dependant upon orientation of the regional slope with respect to the prevailing NW wind-driven waves, angle of slope, and presence or absence of regional, structurally based barriers.

Ice observations in the Southern Ocean between 1878 and 1928

During the period in question, large ice drifts transported incalculable numbers of icebergs, ice fields and ice floes from the Antarctica into the South Atlantic, confronting long-journeying sailing ships on the Cape Horn route with considerable danger. As is still the case today, the ice drifts generally tended in a northeasterly direction. Thus it can be assumed that the ice masses occuring near Cape Horn and in the South Atlantic originated in Graham Land and the South Shetland Islands, while those found in the Pacific will have come from Victoria Land. The masses drifting to Cape Horn, Isla de los Estados, the Falkland Islands and occasionally as far as the Tristan da Cunha Group are transported by the West Wind Drift and Falkland Current, diverted by the Brazil Current. The Bouvet and Agulhas Currents have little influence here. The great ice masses repeatedly reached points beyond the "outermost drift ice boundery" calculated in the course of the years, to continue on in the direction of the equator. The number of sailing ships which fell victim to the ice drifts while rounding Cape Horn can only be surmised; they simply disappeared without a trace in the expanses of the South Atlantic. Until the end of the 1900s the dangers presented by ice were less serious for westward-bound ships than for the "homeward-bounders" travelling from West to East. Following the turn of the century, however, the risk for "onwardbounders" increased significantly. Whether the ice drifts actually grew in might or whether the more frequent and more detailed reports led to this impression, could never be ascertained by the German Hydrographie Office. In the forty-one years between 1868 and 1908, ten light, ten medium and nine heavy ice years were counted, and only twelve years in which no reports of ice were submitted to the German Hydrographie Office. "One of the most terrible dangers threatening ships on their return from the Pacific Ocean," the pilot book for the Atlantic Ocean warns, "is the encounter with ice, to be expected south of the 50th parallel (approx.) in the Pacific and south of the 40th parallel (approx.) in the South Atlantic." Following the ice drift of 1854-55, thought to be the first ever recorded, the increasing numbers of sailing ships rounding Cape Horn were frequently confronted with drifts of varying sizes or with single icebergs. Then from 1892-94, a colossal ice drift crossed the path of the sailships in three stages. Several sailing ships collided with the icebergs and could be counted lucky if they survived with heavy damage to the bow and the fo regear. The reports on those which vanished for ever in the ice masses are hardly of investigative value. The English suffered particularly badly in the ice-plagued waters; their captains apparently sailed courses that led more freqently through drifts than did the sailing instructions of the German Hydrographic Office. Thus, among others, Capt. Jarvis' DUNTRUNE, also the STANMORE, ARTHURSTONE and LORD RANOCH as well as the French GALATHEE and CASHMERE all collided with icebergs. The crew of the AETHELBERTH panicked after a collision and took to their lifeboats. It was only after the ship detached itself from the iceberg it had rammed that the men returned to it and continued their journey. The TEMPLEMORE, on the other hand, had to be abandoned for good. Of the German sailing ships, the FLOTOW is to be mentioned here, and in the third phase of the drift the American SAN JOAQUIN lost a large proportion of its rigging. In the 20th century ice drifts continued to cross the courses of the Cape Horn ships. 1906 and 1908 were recorded as particularly heavy ice years. In 1908-09 both the FALKLANDBANK and the TOXTETH fell prey to ice, or so it was assumed during the subsequent Maritime Board proceedings. For the most part the German sailing ships were spared greater damages by sea. Their captains sent detailed ice reports to the German Hydrographic Office, which gratefully welcomed the information and partially incorporated it in the third and final edition of the "Pilot Book for the Atlantic Ocean." From the end of 1926 until the beginning of 1928, the last of the large sailing ships were once again confronted with "tremendous masses of icebergs and ice drifts." Reports of this period originated above all on the P-Liners PADUA, PAMIR, PASSAT, PEKING, PINNAS, PRIWALL and the ships of Gustav Erikson's fleet. The fate of the training sailship ADMIRAL KARPFANGER in connection with the ice in early 1938 was never clearly determined by the Maritime Board proceedings. Collision with an iceberg, however, is thought to be the most likely cause of accident. Today freight sailing ships no longer cross the oceans. The Cape Horn route is relatively insignificant for engine-powered ships and icebergs can be spotted in plenty of time by modern navigation technology ... The large ice drifts are no longer a menace, but only a marginal note in the final chapter of the history of transoceanic sailing.

Film as an archive for colonial photographs: activating the past in the present

This practice-led research looks at the ways in which the colonial archive, and the colonial photographic archive in particular, can be reconstructed to produce new critical histories. The research argues for the potential of the moving image as a tool for re-staging colonial archives, as a means of generating responsible ways of looking at, and of engaging with our troubled collective pasts. In my practice I mix the photographic archive of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company(which became BP) with my family’s photographs from Iran, and with the documentation and narrativization of my encounter with both of these sets of materials, within the moving image. Through this process I address questions about the nature of the photographic archive and the search for historical meaning within it; the question of the researcher’s position within the archive and within the history she produces; and I investigate the affective power of colonial photographs within film and the experience of untimeliness which they produce. While addressing problems associated with the failure of photographic archives to offer access to any stable, transparent meaning, I show how engaging with slippages of meaning can produce other kinds of historical knowledge. But I also argue that attending to the impression of the ‘real’ produced by the colonial photograph as it appears within film, makes the past felt in the present tense, in ways that draw attention to the responsibility of being an onlooker in a situation of injustice. In addition I show how registering the place and time of the researcher within the new filmic archive in motion produces an effective means of imaginative time travel and a lively experience of history.

Speed and Accuracy of People's Trustworthiness Judgment across Cultures

Previous research on person perception has shown that people form first impressions with remarkable speed and accuracy, but relatively little is known about the speed and accuracy of trustworthiness judgments across cultures. The present research examined these by asking Chinese and Canadians to infer trustworthiness from faces of criminals and non-criminals from different cultural backgrounds across two domains (i.e., financial crime in Study 1 and violent crime in Study 2). Across both studies, we found that when participants were given time and opportunity, Chinese tended to take a longer time than Canadians to make trustworthiness judgments (although this difference did not reach statistical significance in Study 2). In Study 1, we found that perceivers from both cultures were accurate at judging European North Americans (ENA) corporate criminals as less trustworthy than ENA non-criminal executives, although they did not differentiate Asian corporate criminals from Asian non-criminal executives. In Study 2, we found that perceivers from both cultures were accurate at judging both Asian and ENA violent criminals as less trustworthy than Asian and ENA non-criminals. Chinese were also accurate at rating Middle Eastern violent criminals as less trustworthy than Middle Eastern non-criminals, but Canadians did not differentiate them in terms of their trustworthiness ratings. In terms of their crime likelihood ratings, however, both Chinese and Canadians accurately rated all the criminals as more likely to commit violent crimes than the non-criminals, regardless of the targets’ ethnicities. Finally, we discussed some of the practical implications of our findings on detection of deception, as well as how providing a context for trustworthiness judgments might have played an important role in people’s judgmental accuracy.

Graded Exercise Therapy Guided Self-Help Trial for Patients with Chronic Fatigue Syndrome (GETSET): Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial and Interview Study

Background: Chronic fatigue syndrome, also known as myalgic encephalomyelitis (CFS/ME), is characterized by chronic disabling fatigue and other symptoms, which are not explained by an alternative diagnosis. Previous trials have suggested that graded exercise therapy (GET) is an effective and safe treatment. GET itself is therapist-intensive with limited availability. Objective: While guided self-help based on cognitive behavior therapy appears helpful to patients, Guided graded Exercise Self-help (GES) is yet to be tested. Methods: This pragmatic randomized controlled trial is set within 2 specialist CFS/ME services in the South of England. Adults attending secondary care clinics with National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE)-defined CFS/ME (N=218) will be randomly allocated to specialist medical care (SMC) or SMC plus GES while on a waiting list for therapist-delivered rehabilitation. GES will consist of a structured booklet describing a 6-step graded exercise program, supported by up to 4 face-to-face/telephone/Skype™ consultations with a GES-trained physiotherapist (no more than 90 minutes in total) over 8 weeks. The primary outcomes at 12-weeks after randomization will be physical function (SF-36 physical functioning subscale) and fatigue (Chalder Fatigue Questionnaire). Secondary outcomes will include healthcare costs, adverse outcomes, and self-rated global impression change scores. We will follow up all participants until 1 year after randomization. We will also undertake qualitative interviews of a sample of participants who received GES, looking at perceptions and experiences of those who improved and worsened. Results: The project was funded in 2011 and enrolment was completed in December 2014, with follow-up completed in March 2016. Data analysis is currently underway and the first results are expected to be submitted soon. Conclusions: This study will indicate whether adding GES to SMC will benefit patients who often spend many months waiting for rehabilitative therapy with little or no improvement being made during that time. The study will indicate whether this type of guided self-management is cost-effective and safe. If this trial shows GES to be acceptable, safe, and comparatively effective, the GES booklet could be made available on the Internet as a practitioner and therapist resource for clinics to recommend, with the caveat that patients also be supported with guidance from a trained physiotherapist. The pragmatic approach in this trial means that GES findings will be generalizable to usual National Health Service (NHS) practice.

A randomised controlled trial of calcium channel blockade (CCB) with Amlodipine For the treatment oF subcortical ischaEmic vasCular demenTia (AFFECT): study protocol

BACKGROUND: Vascular dementia is the second most common cause of dementia affecting over seven million people worldwide, yet there are no licensed treatments. There is an urgent need for a clinical trial in this patient group. Subcortical ischaemic vascular dementia is the most common variant of vascular dementia. This randomised trial will investigate whether use of calcium channel blockade with amlodipine, a commonly used agent, can provide the first evidence-based pharmacological treatment for subcortical ischaemic vascular dementia.

METHODS/DESIGN: This is a randomised controlled trial of calcium channel blockade with Amlodipine For the treatment oF subcortical ischaEmic vasCular demenTia (AFFECT) to test the hypothesis that treatment with amlodipine can improve outcomes for these patients in a phase IIb, multi-centre, double-blind, placebo-controlled randomised trial. The primary outcome is the change from baseline to 12 months in the Vascular Dementia Assessment Scale cognitive subscale (VADAS-cog). Secondary outcomes include cognitive function, executive function, clinical global impression of change, change in blood pressure, quantitative evaluation of lesion accrual based on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), health-related quality of life, activities of daily living, non-cognitive dementia symptoms, care-giver burden and care-giver health-related quality of life, cost-effectiveness and institutionalisation. A total of 588 patients will be randomised in a 1:1 ratio to either amlodipine or placebo, recruited from sites across the UK and enrolled in the trial for 104 weeks.

DISCUSSION: There are no treatments licensed for vascular dementia. The most common subtype is subcortical ischaemic vascular dementia (SIVD). This study is designed to investigate whether amlodipine can produce benefits compared to placebo in established SIVD. It is estimated that the numbers of people with VaD and SIVD will increase globally in the future and the results of this study should inform important treatment decisions.

Gerenciamento de impressões e qualidade dos serviços em hotéis da Paraíba

The present study has got as its aim to show how the impressions management is being used by the hotels in Paraiba State. For that, the dramma or role play perspective has been adopted as a model for service management. From the theater metaphor, the physical environment and its components can be seen as a scenery of the service show. We conduct the reader to notice the importance of the consummer about the service quality demand and its influence on his satisfaction. A methodology with exploring and qualifying nature has been adopted by using the analyses of content technique in interviews applied to hotel managers lebeled as having 4 and 5 stars in the State, trying to check how impression management takes place, identifying impression management tools used in relation to the physical evidences and to contacting people, as well as checking managers views in the survey about the use of impression management for client satisfaction make. The information revealed that managers, maybe for being unaware about impression management theory, haven t considered neither the physical evidences yet, nor contacting people as marketing tools. About the physical evidences, we could see that hotels take actions in a pulverized way referring to environment decoration and colors, however there isn t a global usage of physical evidences to highlight the service. Contacting people by their turn, receive better importance and attention. It was possible to make sure that managers are aware about the influence of the employee over the attendance quality. This way, we may come into a conclusion that impression management at Paraiba hotels has been under used, as long as managers seem to be, most times, turned to actions related to contacting people, not having realized the planning importance and national-wide use of service scenery in a genaral way yet

Publication Bias

According to the Declaration of Helsinki, as well as the Statement on Public Disclosure of Clinical Trial Results of the World Health Organization, every researcher has the ethical obligation to publish research results on all trials with human participants in a complete and accurate way within 12 months after the end of the trial.1,2 Nevertheless, for several reasons, not all research results are published in an accurate way in case they are released at all. This phenomenon of publication bias may not only create a false impression on the reliability of clinical research business, but it may also affect the evidence of clinical conclusions about the best treatments, which are mostly based on published data and results.

The (Im)possibility of the Intellectual Worker Inside the Neoliberal University

The provocation and point of this paper is that universities of the North during the era of neoliberalism of have been sucked of their human life-giving capacities. What remains are closed doors and bare walls. Lest we give the impression of a hopelessly romantic view of the university (and embark upon a lament for some paradise lost), let us be clear from the outset: there is no such place – and there never has been. As will be outlined below, a consideration of the history of the university reveals it was born and has persistently drawn its life breath from oxygen formed in the tension ridden mix of an impulse to human freedom and accommodation to powers of church, state and capital. But, we contend, history is now the witness to the almost complete dissolution of that tension: to the exhaustion of emancipatory impulses in the service of indoctrination, regulation and accumulation. In the church-state-capital triad, it is the latter that has emerged hegemonic. Importantly, we argue, its dominance has emerged with the rise of what Paul Baran and Paul Sweezy describe as monopoly capital: the move from competitive (small entrepreneurial business) forms to monopolistic (large corporate business) regimes of accumulation (Baran & Sweezy 1966). A central feature of monopoly capitalism is its need for significant financial support of national states and the harnessing of public resources such as universities to feed accumulation. It is no surprise that neoliberalism, despite its neoclassical economic pronouncements, is a ‘big state’ advocate (Harvey 2005). Our argument is that neoliberalism, as the political workhorse of monopoly capitalism, has overseen a makeover of universities so they might behave like a monopoly capitalist corporation. Our time is the time of the near global domination of capital. The university has succumbed. In its colonisation – its capitalisation – the university has not only reinvented itself as a willing ally of capital but has also set about remaking itself in its image.