Debt ceiling and fiscal sustainability in Brazil: a quantile autoregression approach

In this paper we investigate fiscal sustainability by using a quantile autoregression (QAR) model. We propose a novel methodology to separate periods of nonstationarity from stationary ones, which allows us to identify various trajectories of public debt that are compatible with fiscal sustainability. We use such trajectories to construct a debt ceiling, that is, the largest value of public debt that does not jeopardize long-run fiscal sustainability. We make out-of-sample forecast of such a ceiling and show how it could be used by Policy makers interested in keeping the public debt on a sustainable path. We illustrate the applicability of our results using Brazilian data.

Electoral rules, political competition and fiscal spending: regression discontinuity evidence from brazilian municipalities

We exploit a discontinuity in Brazilian municipal election rules to investigate whether political competition has a causal impact on policy choices. In municipalities with less than 200,000 voters mayors are elected with a plurality of the vote. In municipalities with more than 200,000 voters a run-off election takes place among the top two candidates if neither achieves a majority of the votes. At a first stage, we show that the possibility of runoff increases political competition. At a second stage, we use the discontinuity as a source of exogenous variation to infer causality from political competition to fiscal policy. Our second stage results suggest that political competition induces more investment and less current spending, particularly personnel expenses. Furthermore, the impact of political competition is larger when incumbents can run for reelection, suggesting incentives matter insofar as incumbents can themselves remain in office.

Elections and fiscal policy at the municipal level in Brazil

Esta tese contribui para a literatura sobre ciclos políticos de negócios ao estudar as relações entre eleições, limites à reeleição, partidos e política fiscal em 3.393 municípios brasileiros entre 2001 e 2008. Os resultados mostram que prefeitos de primeiro mandato aumentam receitas totais e mantém níveis razoáveis de gastos durante as eleições, preservando ou até aumentando o balanço orçamentário. Eles também alteram sua alocação orçamentária reduzindo despesas correntes (e.g. pessoal) e aumentando despesas de capital (e.g. investimentos) à medida que as eleições se aproximam. Em realidade, apenas prefeitos de primeiro mandato parecem se beneficiar de aumentos oportunistas nas variáveis fiscais, especialmente em despesas correntes e de pessoal. No entanto, prefeitos de primeiro mandato não são necessariamente menos responsáveis fiscalmente do que prefeitos de segundo mandato ao longo da gestão (anos não eleitorais) ou durante as eleições. Nesse sentido, eleições com prefeitos de primeiro e segundo mandatos parecem promover condições competitivas que potencialmente aumentam a responsabilização eleitoral e fiscal. Essa tese também aponta para uma significativa associação entre ciclos fiscais oportunistas e partidários no nível local no Brasil. Durante as eleições, partidos de direita aumentam o balanço orçamentário, enquanto partidos de esquerda aumentam despesas de capital e reduzem despesas correntes, mas nesse último caso não tanto quanto os demais partidos. Ao fazerem isso, esses partidos atendem parcialmente às preferências dos eleitores. Durante o mandato (anos não eleitorais), entretanto, partidos de direita apresentam um balanço orçamentário levemente mais baixo, enquanto partidos de esquerda investem menos do que os demais partidos, e essas políticas não são favorecidas pelos eleitores. De forma geral, esse estudo mostra que os eleitores no Brasil reconhecem uma administração fiscalmente responsável, e têm uma preferência por mais receitas e gastos públicos, especialmente premiando maiores despesas de capital e investimentos ao longo do mandato político e aumentos em receitas e despesas correntes no ano eleitoral. De qualquer modo, as preferências fiscais dos eleitores são independentes das preferências ideológicas.

Immigration as a strategic vector for the socio-economic and institutional development of Brazil

Brazil has demonstrated resilience in relation to the recent economic crises and has an auspicious development potential projected for the coming decades, which, linked to the globalization process, provides important opportunities for our people. Gradually we have established ourselves as one of the leading nations in the world and we have become a reference in questions linked to economic equilibrium, development, energy, agriculture and the environment. This international recognition favors the exchange of experiences with other cultures, governments and organizations, bringing with it the possibility of stimulating a dynamic process of development and innovation.

Wasted: understanding the economic and social impact of food waste

Over one-third of global food production goes to waste while over 850million people are fighting chronic hunger. The United States is the world’s largest food waster. One third of America’s food with an economic value of US$161 billion is wasted and less than 7% is recycled. American food waste ends up in landfills creating powerful methane gas emissions. South Korea, on the other hand, has implemented the world’s strictest food waste laws, and today diverts 93% of wasted food away from landfills turning such waste into powerful economic opportunities. This Master Thesis investigates the reasons behind global food waste by comparing South Korea and the US. It explores what these two nations are doing to address their respective food waste problems, South Korea successfully, the US not. The paper looks at the two countries’ respective policies and national characteristics, which impact decision-making and recycling processes. The effort concludes that South Korea has embarked on a necessary paradigm shift turning food waste into powerful economic drivers leading to a sharp decline in food waste. In the US, food waste continues to be a major problem without a national strategy to remedy waste. Any effort in the US, while laudable, is sporadic and local, and hence the US misses out on possibly important economic growth opportunities.

Analysis of the economic and financial relations between Latin American and the Caribbean and the BRICS group

This document has been prepared in compliance with Activity III.1.2 of the Work Programme of SELA for the year 2015, entitled “Analysis of the economic and financial relations between Latin America and the Caribbean and the BRICS countries”. The document comprises an introduction, four chapters and a final section with the conclusions and recommendations stemming from the study. Chapter I describes the economic performance of the BRICS countries, their economic relations with Latin America and the Caribbean and the functioning of the development banks of the member countries. Chapter II assesses the financial architecture of Latin America and the Caribbean and explores the needs for financing in the region. Chapter III deals with the regulatory frameworks governing public and private investments in Latin America and the Caribbean and the Bilateral Investment Treaties with the BRICS countries. Finally, Chapter IV describes the main features of the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Contingent Reserve Agreement of the BRICS

The spenders-hoarders theory of capital accumulations, wealth distribution and fiscal policy

This paper proposes a simple OLG model which is consistent with the essential facts about consumer behavior, capital accumulation and wealth distribution, and yields some new and surprising conclusions about fiscal policy. By considering a society in which individuais are distinguished according to two characteristics, altruism and wealth preference, we show that those who in the long run hold the bulk of private capital are not so rnuch motivated by dynastic altruism as by preference for wealth. Two types of social segmentation can result with different wcalth distribution. To a large extcnt our results seem to fit reality better than those obtained with standard optimal growth models in which dynastic altruism ( or r ate o f impatience) is the only source of heterogeneity: overaccumulation can appear, public debt and unfunded pensions are not neutra!, estate taxation can improve the welfare of the top wealthy.

Selection strategies for dairy buffaloes: economic and genetic consequences

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Relationship between global structural parameters and Enzyme Commission hierarchy: Implications for function prediction

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Economic and technical feasibility study of a combined-cycle cogeneration system associated with cellulose plants

In this paper, is presented an economical and technical feasibility study of a combined cycle cogeneration system proposed to be used in a pulp plant located in Brazil, where around 95% of country's pulp production is done by the use of Kraft Process. This process allows the use of black liquor and other by-products as fuel. This study is based upon actual data from a pulp plant with a daily production of 1000 tons., that generates part of the energy demanded by the process in a conventional cogeneration system with condensing steam turbine and two extractions. The addition of a gas turbine was studied to compare electricity production level and its related costs between original system and the new one, considering that the former can use industrial by-products and firewood as fuel, when required. Several parameters related to electric generation systems operation and production costs were studied. The use of natural gas in the combined cycle, in comparison with the use of firewood in the conventional system was studied. The advantages of natural gas fuel are highlighted. The surplus availability and the electricity generation costs are presented as a function of pulp and black liquor production.

Estudio Económico y social de América Latina 1961 = Economic and Social Survey of Latin America 1961

Incluye Bibliografía

Estudio económico de América Latina 1962 = Economic and social survey of Latin America 1962

Incluye Bibliografía

Tendências econômicas e sociais na América Latina e no Caribe em gráficos = Economic and social trends in Latin America and the Caribbean in graphs = Tendencias económicas y sociales en América Latina y el Caribe en gráficos

Incluye Bibliografía