Making decisions in the absence of clear facts: a historical perspective

Recently, a claim has been made that executive decisions makers, far from being fact collectors, are actually fact users and integrators. As such, the claim continues, executive decision makers need help in understanding how to interpret facts, as well as guidance in making decisions in the absence of clear facts. This report justifies this claim against the backdrop of the modern history of decision making, from 1956 to the present. The historical excursion serves to amplify and clarify the claim, as well as to develop a theoretical framework for making decisions in the absence of clear facts. Two essential issues are identified that impact upon decision making in the absence of clear facts, as well criteria for decision making effectiveness under such circumstances. Methodological requirements and practical objectives round off the theoretical framework. The historical analysis enables the identification of one particular established methodology as claiming to meet the methodological requirements of the theoretical framework. Since the methodology has yet to be tried on information-poor situations, a further project is proposed that will test its validity.

Developmental class coalitions: historical experiences and prospects

Este artigo discute o conceito de coalizões de classe como uma alternativa parcial à luta de classes na compreensão das sociedades capitalistas; define duas coalizões de classes básicas - a desenvolvimentista e a liberal; apresenta brevemente três coalizões de classe desenvolvimentistas paradigmáticas - a mercantilista, a bismarckiana, e a social-democrata (ou dos anos dourados do capitalismo); e usa esse arcabouço teórico para entender o capitalismo contemporâneo nos anos pós neoliberais - os anos que se seguem a crise financeira global de 2008

The BRICS: some historical experiences, growth challenges and opportunities

The acronym BRICS was a fad among the media and global investors. Now, the acronym sounds passé. However, the group of countries remains important, from both political and economic reasons. They have a large aggregate size, 28% of the global GDP and 42% of the world’s population, high growth potential due to the current significant misallocation of resources and relatively low stock of human capital, structural transformation is in progress and one of them, China, is taking steps to become a global power and a challenger to the US dominance. This paper provides a brief overview of the five economies, Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. We focus on some aspects of their history, the Chinese initiatives in international finance and geopolitical strategic moves, their growth experience and structural transformation over the last 35 years, trade and investment integration into the global economy and among themselves, the growth challenges faced by their economies and the potential gains to the Brazilian economy from a stronger integration with the other BRICS. In association with its efforts to be a global power, China aims to become a major player in global finance and to achieve the status of global currency for the renminbi, which would be the first currency of an emerging economy to attain such position. Despite the similarities, the BRICS encompass very diverse economies. In the recent decades, China and India showed stellar growth rates. On the other hand, Brazil, Russia and South Africa have expanded just in line with global output growth with the Russian economy exhibiting high volatility. China is by far the largest economy, and South Africa the smallest, the only BRICS economy with a GDP lower than US$ 1 trillion. Russia abandoned communism almost 25 years ago, but reversed many of the privatizations of 90’s. China is still ruled by communism, but has a vibrant private sector and recently has officially declared market forces to play a dominant role in its economy. Brazil, Russia and South Africa are global natural resources powerhouses and commodity exporters while China and India are large commodity importers. Brazil is relatively closed to international trade of goods and services, in marked contrast to the other four economies. Brazil, India and South Africa are dependent on external capital flows whereas China and Russia are capital exporters. India and South Africa have younger populations and a large portion living below the poverty line. Despite its extraordinary growth experience that lifted many millions from poverty, China still has 28% of its population classified as poor. Russia and China have much older populations and one of their challenges is to deal with the effects of a declining labor force in the near future. India, China and South Africa face a long way to urbanization, while Brazil and Russia are already urbanized countries. China is an industrial economy but its primary sector still absorbs a large pool of workers. India is not, but the primary sector employs also a large share of the labor force. China’s aggregate demand structure is biased towards investment that has been driving its expansion. Brazil and South Africa have an aggregate demand structure similar to the developed economies, with private consumption accounting for approximately 70%. The same similarity applies to the supply side, as in both economies the share of services nears 70%. The development problem is a productivity problem, so microeconomic reforms are badly needed to foster long-term growth of the BRICS economies since they have lost steam due a variety of factors, but fundamentally due to slower total factor productivity growth. China and India are implementing ambitious reform programs, while Brazil is dealing with macroeconomic disequilibria. Russia and South Africa remain mute about structural reforms. There are some potential benefits to Brazil to be extracted from a greater economic integration with the BRICS, particularly in natural resources intensive industries and services. Necessary conditions to the materialization of those gains are the removal of the several sources of resource misallocation and strong investment in human capital.

HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE and HUMAN CONSEQUENCES of AFRICANIZED BEE STINGS IN THE AMERICAS

In 1956, Africanized bees began to spread in the American continent from southern Brazil, where original African bees mated with European bees. A few years later, in 1990, these Africanized bees reached the United States and were found in Texas. Currently, these hybrid bees are found in several North American states and will probably reach the Canadian border in the future. Although the presence of Africanized bees had produced positive effects on Brazilian economy, including improvement in crop pollination and in honey production, turning Brazil into a major exporter, the negative impacts-such as swarming, aggressive behavior, and the ability to mass attack-resulted in serious and fatal envenomation with humans and animals. Victims of bee attacks usually develop a severe envenomation syndrome characterized by the release of a large amount of cytokines [interleukins (IL) IL-1, IL-6, IL-8], and tumor necrosis factor (TNF). Subsequently, such cytokines produce an acute inflammatory response that triggers adverse effects on skeletal muscles; bone marrow; hepatic and renal functions; and cardiovascular, central nervous, and immune systems. Finally, the aim of the present review is to study historical characteristics and current status of Africanized bees' spread, the composition of their venom, the impact of the bees on the Brazilian economy and ecology, and clinical aspects of their stings including immune response, and to suggest a protocol for bee sting management since there is no safe and effective antivenom available.

Molecular systematic and historical biogeography of the armored Neotropical catfishes Hypoptopomatinae and Neoplecostominae (Siluriformes: Loricariidae)

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Bouchardia rosea, a vanishing brachiopod species of the Brazilian platform: taphonomy, historical ecology and conservation paleobiology

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Historical aspects of Belly Dance and its practice in Brazil

Dance is regarded as one of the oldest art forms, which is based on evidence from prehistoric paintings found in caves; man expressed himself through body language prior to the development of spoken and written forms of communication. Dance was then used during important events, common to their era and culture, and often in religious rituals, to ensure good harvests - their economic activity. Belly-dance appeared approximately eight thousand years B. C. E. as a sacred dance firstly practiced by priestesses, and after that, it was popularized amongst women from Mesopotamia. Virtually considered an ancient form of physical exercise, it is still practiced by Bedouin women as a preparation for spontaneous delivery. In Brazil, belly-dance is widely practiced and our corporal culture enables its learning and improvement, resulting in professional dancers.

Historical biogeography and conservation of the golden-striped salamander (Chioglossa lusitanica) in northwestern Iberia: integrating ecological, phenotypic and phylogeographic data

The golden-striped salamander (Chioglossa lusitanica) is an endemic species inhabiting stream-side habitats in mountainous areas in the northwestern Iberian Peninsula. This salamandrid is listed in the IUCN Red Data Book as a threatened species. The combination of bioclimatic modeling of the species distribution and multivariate analysis of genetic and phenotypic data strengthens previous hypotheses concerning the historical biogeography of C. lusitanica: the Pleistocene subdivision of the species' range and a process of postglacial recolonization. Discrepancies between bioclimatic modeling predictions and the present-day distribution suggest that the species may still be expanding its range northwards. We propose the identification of two distinct units for the conservation of the species and suggest that this information should be taken into account in defining key areas for conservation in the Iberian Peninsula.

Functional and historical determinants of shape in the scapula of Xenarthran mammals: Evolution of a complex morphological structure

The mammalian scapula is a complex morphological structure, composed of two ossification plates that fuse into a single structure. Most studies on morphological differentiation in the scapula have considered it to be a simple, spatially integrated structure, primarily influenced by the important locomotor function presented by this element. We used recently developed geometric morphometric techniques to test and quantify functional and phylogenetic influences on scapular shape variation in fossil and extant xenarthran mammals. The order Xenarthra is well represented in the fossil record and presents a stable phylogenetic hypothesis for its genealogical history. In addition, its species present a large variety of locomotor habits. Our results show that approximately half of the shape variation in the scapula is due to phylogenetic heritage. This is contrary to the view that the scapula is influenced only by functional demands. There are large-scale shape transformations that provide biomechanical adaptation for the several habits (arboreality, terrestriality, and digging), and small scale-shape transformations (mostly related to the coracoid process) that are not influenced by function. A nonlinear relationship between morphometric and phylogenetic distances indicates the presence of a complex mixture of evolutionary processes acting on shape differentiation of the scapula. J. Morphol. 241,251-263, 1999. (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Cypsela or achene? Refining terminology by considering anatomical and historical factors

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Historical land-cover/use in different slope and riparian buffer zones in watersheds of the state of São Paulo, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

HBT interferometry: historical perspective

I review the history of HBT interferometry, since its discovery in the mid 1950's, up to the recent developments and results from BNL/RHIC experiments. I focus the discussion on the contributions to the subject given by members of our Brazilian group.

Camponeses Brazil's Peasant Movement in Historical Perspective (1946-2004)

Comparison of the histories of three leading peasant organizations in the Pontal do Paranapanema region of Brazil-the Partido Comunista do Brasil (PCB) from 1945 to 1964, the Confederacao Nacional de Trabalhadores na Agricultura (CONTAG) from 1964 to 1984, and the Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem-Terra (MST) from 1984 to 2004-suggests that continuity is as important as change in understanding Brazilian peasant movements. The MST has been considered a "new social movement" in that it has eschewed partisan politics, incorporated families as members rather than just male heads of household, had a national scope and a participatory decision-making structure, and been attuned to the international struggle over globalization. Placing it in historical perspective makes it clear, however, that this is not the first time that militants have organized around the concept of peasants as a political identity; that while the representation of peasants in the leadership of contemporary rural labor organizations may be greater than in the past, earlier peasant leaders also struggled on behalf of their class; that earlier peasant organizations had, if not a national presence, a substantial presence in the agricultural states of the time; and that attempts at international organization to unite peasant struggles around the globe are not entirely new. This is not to deny the innovative features of contemporary movements but to suggest that the investigation of past achievements will contribute to a fuller appreciation of these movements' conditions and prospects.