890 resultados para Hierarchical data, Multilevel models, Motor vehicle crashes, Transportation safety, Rural intersections
Resumo:
This paper reports profiling information for speeding offenders and is part of a larger project that assessed the deterrent effects of increased speeding penalties in Queensland, Australia, using a total of 84,456 speeding offences. The speeding offenders were classified into three groups based on the extent and severity of an index offence: once-only low-rang offenders; repeat high-range offenders; and other offenders. The three groups were then compared in terms of personal characteristics, traffic offences, crash history and criminal history. Results revealed a number of significant differences between repeat high-range offenders and those in the other two offender groups. Repeat high-range speeding offenders were more likely to be male, younger, hold a provisional and a motorcycle licence, to have committed a range of previous traffic offences, to have a significantly greater likelihood of crash involvement, and to have been involved in multiple-vehicle crashes than drivers in the other two offender types. Additionally, when a subset of offenders’ criminal histories were examined, results revealed that repeat high-range speeding offenders were also more likely to have committed a previous criminal offence compared to once only low-range and other offenders and that 55.2% of the repeat high-range offenders had a criminal history. They were also significantly more likely to have committed drug offences and offences against order than the once only low-range speeding offenders, and significantly more likely to have committed regulation offences than those in the other offenders group. Overall, the results indicate that speeding offenders are not an homogeneous group and that, therefore, more tailored and innovative sanctions should be considered and evaluated for high-range recidivist speeders because they are a high-risk road user group.
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Suicide has remained a persistent social phenomenon and now accounts for more deaths than motor vehicle accidents. There has been much debate, however, over which religious constructs might best explain the variation in suicide rates. Our empirical analysis reveals that even though theological and social differences between Catholicism and Protestantism have decreased, Catholics are still less likely than Protestants to commit or accept suicide. This difference holds even after we control for such confounding factors as social and religious networks. In addition, although religious networks do mitigate suicides among Protestants, the influence of church attendance is more dominant among Catholics. Our analysis also indicates that alternative concepts such as religious commitment and religiosity strongly reduce suicide acceptance.
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City centres have large volumes of pedestrians and motorised traffic and increases in walking and cycling could potentially lead to more pedestrians and cyclists being injured. In this study, observers recorded cyclist characteristics, number of pedestrians within 1m and 5m radius and type of conflict (none, pedestrian, vehicle) for 1,971 cyclists in 2010 and 2,551 cyclists in 2012 at six locations in the Brisbane Central Business District. Only 1.7% of cyclists were involved in conflicts with a motor vehicle or pedestrian and no collisions were observed. Increased odds of a pedestrian-cyclist conflict was associated with: male riders, riders not wearing correctly fastened helmets, riding on the footpath, higher pedestrian density (within 1m but not within 5m), morning peak and 2-4 pm (compared with 4-6 pm), two-way roads, roads with more lanes, higher speed limits, and yellow marked bicycle symbols on the road.
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In the commercial food industry, demonstration of microbiological safety and thermal process equivalence often involves a mathematical framework that assumes log-linear inactivation kinetics and invokes concepts of decimal reduction time (DT), z values, and accumulated lethality. However, many microbes, particularly spores, exhibit inactivation kinetics that are not log linear. This has led to alternative modeling approaches, such as the biphasic and Weibull models, that relax strong log-linear assumptions. Using a statistical framework, we developed a novel log-quadratic model, which approximates the biphasic and Weibull models and provides additional physiological interpretability. As a statistical linear model, the log-quadratic model is relatively simple to fit and straightforwardly provides confidence intervals for its fitted values. It allows a DT-like value to be derived, even from data that exhibit obvious "tailing." We also showed how existing models of non-log-linear microbial inactivation, such as the Weibull model, can fit into a statistical linear model framework that dramatically simplifies their solution. We applied the log-quadratic model to thermal inactivation data for the spore-forming bacterium Clostridium botulinum and evaluated its merits compared with those of popular previously described approaches. The log-quadratic model was used as the basis of a secondary model that can capture the dependence of microbial inactivation kinetics on temperature. This model, in turn, was linked to models of spore inactivation of Sapru et al. and Rodriguez et al. that posit different physiological states for spores within a population. We believe that the log-quadratic model provides a useful framework in which to test vitalistic and mechanistic hypotheses of inactivation by thermal and other processes. Copyright © 2009, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.
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Objective: This study investigated the influence of injury cause, contact-sport participation, and prior knowledge of mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) on injury beliefs and chronic symptom expectations of mTBI. Method: A total of 185 non-contact-sport players (non-CSPs) and 59 contact-sport players (CSPs) with no history of mTBI were randomly allocated to one of two conditions in which they read either a vignette depicting a sport-related mTBI (mTBIsport) or a motor-vehicle-accident-related mTBI (mTBIMVA). The vignettes were otherwise standardized to convey the same injury parameters (e.g., duration of loss of consciousness). After reading a vignette, participants reported their injury beliefs (i.e., perceptions of injury undesirability, chronicity, and consequences) and their expectations of chronic postconcussion syndrome (PCS) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms. Results: Non-CSPs held significantly more negative beliefs and expected greater PTSD symptomatology and greater PCS affective symptomatology from an mTBIMVA vignette thann mTBIsport vignette, but this difference was not found for CSPs. Unlike CSPs, non-CSPs who personally knew someone who had sustained an mTBI expected significantly less PCS symptomatology than those who did not. Despite these different results for non-CSPs and CSPs, overall, contact-sport participation did not significantly affect injury beliefs and symptom expectations from an mTBIsport. Conclusions: Expectations of persistent problems after an mTBI are influenced by factors such as injury cause even when injury parameters are held constant. Personal knowledge of mTBI, but not contact sport participation, may account for some variability in mTBI beliefs and expectations. These factors require consideration when assessing mTBI outcome.
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In 2013 the newly elected conservative Liberal National Party government instigated amendments to the Youth Justice Act 1992 (Qld). Boot camps replaced court ordered youth justice conferencing. In 2014 there were more drastic changes, including opening the Children’s Court proceedings to the public, permitting publication of identifying information of repeat offenders, removing the principle of ‘detention as a last resort’, facilitating prompt transferral of 17 year olds to adult prisons and instigating new bail offences and mandatory boot camp orders for recidivist motor vehicle offenders in Townsville. This article compares these amendments to the legislative frameworks in other jurisdictions and current social research. It argues that these amendments are out of step with national and international best practice benchmarks for youth justice. Early indications are that Indigenous children are now experiencing increased rates of unsentenced remand. The article argues that the government’s policy initiatives are resulting in negative outcomes and that early and extensive evaluations of these changes are essential.
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This project was a comprehensive study of drink driving in two Chinese cities. It examined general motor vehicle drivers' and drunk driving offenders' knowledge on and practices of drinking and driving, and their interaction with alcohol misuse problems. In addition, traffic police officers' perceptions of drink driving and their legal enforcement practices were studied. The differences between the two cities (Guangzhou and Yinchuan) were discussed and the approaches by China and Australia to drink driving legislation, legal enforcement and policy were also compared.
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Unlicensed driving is a serious problem in many countries, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. The term "unlicensed driver" is generally used to refer to people who drive or ride a motor vehicle without a valid driver's licence, including those who: • Have let their licence expire, • Have been disqualified or suspended from driving, • Hold an inappropriate licence for the class of vehicle they drive, • Drive outside the restrictions of a special licence, • Don’t currently hold a licence, or • Have never held a licence (Watson, 2003, 2004a)...
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Unlicensed driving is a serious problem in many countries, despite ongoing improvements in traffic law enforcement practices and technology. The term ‘unlicensed driver' is generally used to refer to people who operate a motor vehicle or motorcycle without a valid driver's licence, including those who: • have let their licence expire; • have been disqualified or suspended from driving; • hold an inappropriate class of licence for the vehicle they drive; • drive outside the restrictions of a special licence; • don’t currently hold a licence; or • have never held a licence.
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Overhead high-voltage power lines are known sources of corona ions. These ions rapidly attach to aerosols to form charged particles in the environment. Although the effect of ions and charged particles on human health is largely unknown, much attention has focused on the increasing exposure as a result of the expanding power network in urban residential areas. However, it is not widely known that a large number of charged particles in urban environments originate from motor vehicle emissions. In this study, for the first time, we compare the concentrations of charged nanoparticles near busy roads and overhead power lines. We show that large concentrations of both positive and negative charged nanoparticles are present near busy roadways and that these concentrations commonly exceed those under high-voltage power lines. We estimate that the concentration of charged nanoparticles found near two freeways carrying around 120 vehicles per minute exceeded the corresponding maximum concentrations under two corona-emitting overhead power lines by as much as a factor of 5. The difference was most pronounced when a significant fraction of traffic consisted of heavy-duty diesel vehicles which typically have high particle and charge emission rates.
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Exposure to atmospheric ultrafine particles (UFPs, D<100 nm) has been an increasingly concern because of their potential impact one health. Motor vehicle emissions are considered as one of the major source of UFPin urban airshed, as the combustion of both petrol and diesel engine leads to emission of particles which are predominantly in this size range (Ban-Weiss et al, 2010; Morawska et al, 2008). New particle formations (NPFs) and major facilities such as airport or seaport has also been identified as major sources of UFPs in urban airshed (Cheung et al, 2010; González et al, 2011; Mazaheri et al, 2013). However, contribution of those urban sources to ambient UFP concentrations has not been comprehensively characterized.
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Introduction & Aims Optimising fracture treatments requires a sound understanding of relationships between stability, callus development and healing outcomes. This has been the goal of computational modelling, but discrepancies remain between simulations and experimental results. We compared healing patterns vs fixation stiffness between a novel computational callus growth model and corresponding experimental data. Hypothesis We hypothesised that callus growth is stimulated by diffusible signals, whose production is in turn regulated by mechanical conditions at the fracture site. We proposed that introducing this scheme into computational models would better replicate the observed tissue patterns and the inverse relationship between callus size and fixation stiffness. Method Finite element models of bone healing under stiff and flexible fixation were constructed, based on the parameters of a parallel rat femoral osteotomy study. An iterative procedure was implemented, to simulate the development of callus and its mechanical regulation. Tissue changes were regulated according to published mechano-biological criteria. Predictions of healing patterns were compared between standard models, with a pre-defined domain for callus development, and a novel approach, in which periosteal callus growth is driven by a diffusible signal. Production of this signal was driven by local mechanical conditions. Finally, each model’s predictions were compared to the corresponding histological data. Results Models in which healing progressed within a prescribed callus domain predicted that greater interfragmentary movements would displace early periosteal bone formation further from the fracture. This results from artificially large distortional strains predicted near the fracture edge. While experiments showed increased hard callus size under flexible fixation, this was not reflected in the standard models. Allowing the callus to grow from a thin soft tissue layer, in response to a mechanically stimulated diffusible signal, results in a callus shape and tissue distribution closer to those observed histologically. Importantly, the callus volume increased with increasing interfragmentary movement. Conclusions A novel method to incorporate callus growth into computational models of fracture healing allowed us to successfully capture the relationship between callus size and fixation stability observed in our rat experiments. This approach expands our toolkit for understanding the influence of different fixation strategies on healing outcomes.
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This project developed three mathematical models for scheduling ambulances and ambulance crews and proceeded to solve each model for test scenarios based on real data. Results from these models can serve as decision aids for dispatching or relocating ambulances; and for strategic decisions on the ambulance crews needed each shift. This thesis used Flexible Flow Shop Scheduling techniques to formulate strategic, dynamic and real time models. Metaheuristic solutions techniques were applied for a case study with realistic data. These models are suitable for ambulance planners and dispatchers.
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Introduction Canadian C spine rule and NEXUS criteria have identified risk factors for cervical spine injury in adults but not for children. PECARN has developed an 8 variable model for cervical spine injury in children. We sought to identify the mechanism, prevalence of PECARN risk factors, injury patterns, and management of severe Paediatric cervical spine injuries presenting to the major children’s hospitals in Brisbane, Australia. Methods This a retrospective study of the children with cervical spine injuries who presented directly or were referred to the major children’s hospitals in Brisbane over 5 years. Results There were 38 patients with 18 male and 20 female.The mean age was 8.6 years. They were divided into two groups according to their age, (Group 1 < =8 years had 18 (47%) patients, while group 2 (9-15 years) had 20 (53%) patients. Motor vehicle related injuries were the most common (61%) in Group 1 while it was sporting injuries (50%) in group 2. All patients in group 1 had upper cervical injury (C0-C2) while subaxial injuries were most common in group 2 (66.6%). 82% of the patients had 2 or more PECARN risk factors. 18 children (47%) had normal neurological assessment at presentation, 6 (16%) had radicular symptoms, 11 (29%) could not be assessed as they had already been intubated due to the severity of the injury, 3 (8%) had incomplete cord injury. 29 (69%) patients had normal neurological assessment at final follow up and 2 children died from their injuries. Conclusion Our study confirms that younger children sustain upper cervical injuries most commonly secondary to motor vehicle accidents, while the older sustain subaxial injuries from sporting activities. The significant prevalence of the PECARN risk factors among this cohort of patients have led to them being incorporated into a protocol at these hospitals used to assess patients with suspected cervical spinal injury.
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Cities are the most dramatic manifestations of human activities on the surface of the earth. These human-dominated organisms—i.e., cities—degrade natural habitats, simplify species composition, disrupt hydrological systems, and modify energy flow and nutrient cycling. Today, these consequential impacts of human activities, originated from population increase, rapid urbanization, high private motor vehicle dependency, deregulated industrialization and mass livestock production, are increasing exponentially and causing great deal of environmental, social, and economic challenges both at global and local scales. In such a situation, establishment of sustainable cities, through sustainable urban development practices, is seen as a potential panacea to combat these challenges responsibly, effectively, and efficiently. This paper offers a critical review of the key literature on the issues relating to planning, development and management of sustainable cities, introduces the contributions from the Special Issue, and speculates on the prospective research directions to place necessary mechanisms to secure a sustainable urban future for all.