Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

Effects of Adolescent Depressive Symptoms, Pubertal Development, and Interpersonal Relationship Satisfaction on Sexual Risk Behaviors in Adolescent Romantic Couples

This study examined links between adolescent depressive symptoms, actual pubertal development, perceived pubertal timing relative to one’s peers, adolescent-maternal relationship satisfaction, and couple sexual behavior. Assessments of these variables were made on each couple member separately and then these variables were used to predict the sexual activity of the couple. Participants were drawn from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health; Bearman et al., 1997; Udry, 1997) data set (N = 20,088; aged 12-18 years). Dimensions of adolescent romantic experiences using the total sample were described and then a subsample of romantically paired adolescents (n = 1,252) were used to test a risk and protective model for predicting couple sexual behavior using the factors noted above. Relevant measures from the Wave 1 Add Health measures were used. Most of the items used in Add Health to assess romantic relationship experiences, adolescent depressive symptoms, pubertal development (actual and perceived), adolescent-maternal relationship satisfaction, and couple sexual behavior were drawn from other national surveys or from scales with well documented psychometric properties. Results demonstrated that romantic relationships are part of most adolescents’ lives and that adolescents’ experiences with these relationships differ markedly by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Further, each respective couple member’s pubertal development, perceived pubertal timing, and maternal relationship satisfaction were useful in predicting sexual risk-promoting and risk-reducing behaviors in adolescent romantic couples. Findings in this dissertation represent an initial step toward evaluating explanatory models of adolescent couple sexual behavior.

Impact of nutrition education on knowledge and eating patterns in HIV-infected individuals

Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) and impaired or threatened nutritional status seem to be closely related. It is now known that AIDS results in many nutritional disorders including anorexia, vomiting, protein-energy malnutrition (PEM), nutrient deficiencies, and gastrointestinal, renal, and hepatic dysfunction (1-7, 8). Reversibly, nutritional status may also have an impact on the development of AIDS among HIV-infected people. Not all individuals who have tested antibody positive for the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) have developed AIDS or have even shown clinical symptoms (9, 10). A poor nutritional status, especially PEM, has a depressing effect on immunity which may predispose an individual to infection (11). It has been proposed that a qualitatively or quantitatively deficient diet could be among the factors precipitating the transition from HIV-positive to AIDS (12, 13). The interrelationship between nutrition and AIDS reveals the importance of having a multidisciplinary health care team approach to treatment (11), including having a registered dietitian on the medical team. With regards to alimentation, the main responsibility of a dietitian is to inform the public concerning sound nutritional practices and encourage healthy food habits (14). In individuals with inadequate nutritional behavior, a positive, long-term change has been seen when nutrition education tailored to specific physiological and emotional needs was provided along with psychological support through counseling (14). This has been the case for patients with various illnesses and may also be true in AIDS patients as well. Nutritional education specifically tailored for each AIDS patient could benefit the patient by improving the quality of life and preventing or minimizing weight loss and malnutrition (15-17). Also, it may influence the progression of the disease by delaying the onset of the most severe symptoms and increasing the efficacy of medical treatment (18, 19). Several studies have contributed to a dietary rationale for nutritional intervention in HIV-infected and AIDS patients (2, 4, 20-25). Prospective, randomized clinical research in AIDS patients have not yet been published to support this dietary rationale; however, isolated case reports show its suitability (3). Furthermore, only nutrition intervention as applied by a medical team in an institution or hospital has been evaluated. Research is lacking concerning the evaluation of nutritional education of either non-institutionalized or hospitalized groups of persons who are managing their own food choice and intake. This study compares nutrition knowledge and food intakes in HIV-infected individuals prior to and following nutrition education. It was anticipated that education would increase the knowledge of nutritional care of AIDS patients and lead to better implementation of nutrition education programs.

HIV/AIDS: um perfil epidemiológico do vírus e uma análise das práticas seguras, conhecimento e percepção de mulheres

In recent decades, the debate surrounding the consequences of the HIV has passed by great changes. Earlier, prevention campaigns focused risk groups then risk behaviors and ultimately vulnerability. Furthermore, over the years, the dimensions of HIV that emerged in the social environment are these: internalization, heterosexualization, impoverishment and feminization. Based on these contexts, the composition of this study comprises two papers: the former has the overall objective to analyze the epidemiology and incidence of HIV in Brazilian regions in the period from 1980 to 2012; the latter, it aims to find out whether there is the relationship among safe practices, knowledge and perception of women residents in Manaus and Boa Vista cities on the infection by HIV. In paper 1, it was used information from the Health Ministry, as a data source. Besides, it was developed an exploratory and spatial analysis of incidence rates and relative proportion of notified cases. In paper 2, was used as a source of data, the research "Evaluating the process of spatial and epidemic diffusion of HIV in the federal units of Brazil-Northern Region" in 2008. Furthermore, Statistical Techniques of Cluster Analysis, Analysis of Variance, Chi-Square and Logistic Regression were applied. In this paper, it was found that, in Brazilian Regions, the prevalence of reported cases occurred among heterosexuals in men 20-40 year age group and residing in metropolitan areas. It was observed a significant spatial correlation of the incidence rate of reported cases of HIV. It was also noted by the results that have good knowledge and awareness about HIV does not imply, essentially, in a safe sexual intercourse. These results have shown the need public policies geared to the guiding of society, based in educational strategies aiming both information about the virus and its prevention, as well as public awareness for safe sex practices or in stable or not intercourses

Impacto do exercício físico na qualidade de vida e do sono em pessoas vivendo com HIV/AIDS

The increased incidence along to new therapies for the treatment of HIV/AIDS bring way up exercise as a treatment option, as this promotes relevant changes in the general functioning of the body. The objective of this study was to evaluate in different periods the influence of exercise on quality of life and quality of sleep people living with HIV/AIDS, Natal/RN. The sample consisted of 17 people living with HIV/AIDS participating in physical exercise program, along accompanied by 25 months during the period January 2013 to April 2015. We evaluated through specific instruments quality of life, sleep quality and immunological parameters, which were evaluated before starting the exercise program and reassessed during periods of 2-4 months (short), 5-17 months (average period or intermediate) and finally to 19-25 months (long period). The results showed significant differences in five of the nine areas of quality life, pointing positive behaviors, specifically in the areas overall function, life satisfaction, health concerns, concerns about the medication and acceptance to HIV. We conclude that physical exercise promoted benefits both in short and long term, especially for the areas of quality of life of people living with HIV/AIDS and also demonstrated positive behavior changes and to aspects of sleep quality.

The ecocultural context and child behavior problems: A qualitative analysis in rural Nepal.

Commonly used paradigms for studying child psychopathology emphasize individual-level factors and often neglect the role of context in shaping risk and protective factors among children, families, and communities. To address this gap, we evaluated influences of ecocultural contextual factors on definitions, development of, and responses to child behavior problems and examined how contextual knowledge can inform culturally responsive interventions. We drew on Super and Harkness' "developmental niche" framework to evaluate the influences of physical and social settings, childcare customs and practices, and parental ethnotheories on the definitions, development of, and responses to child behavior problems in a community in rural Nepal. Data were collected between February and October 2014 through in-depth interviews with a purposive sampling strategy targeting parents (N = 10), teachers (N = 6), and community leaders (N = 8) familiar with child-rearing. Results were supplemented by focus group discussions with children (N = 9) and teachers (N = 8), pile-sort interviews with mothers (N = 8) of school-aged children, and direct observations in homes, schools, and community spaces. Behavior problems were largely defined in light of parents' socialization goals and role expectations for children. Certain physical settings and times were seen to carry greater risk for problematic behavior when children were unsupervised. Parents and other adults attempted to mitigate behavior problems by supervising them and their social interactions, providing for their physical needs, educating them, and through a shared verbal reminding strategy (samjhaune). The findings of our study illustrate the transactional nature of behavior problem development that involves context-specific goals, roles, and concerns that are likely to affect adults' interpretations and responses to children's behavior. Ultimately, employing a developmental niche framework will elucidate setting-specific risk and protective factors for culturally compelling intervention strategies.

The Abundance and Behavioral Ecology of Cape Cod Gray Seals Under Predation Risk From White Sharks

The ultimate goal of wildlife recovery is abundance growth of a species, though it must also involve the reestablishment of the species’ ecological role within ecosystems frequently modified by humans. Reestablishment and subsequent recovery may depend on the species’ degree of adaptive behavior as well as the duration of their functional absence and the extent of ecosystem alteration. In cases of long extirpations or extensive alteration, successful reestablishment may entail adjusting foraging behavior, targeting new prey species, and encountering unfamiliar predatory or competitive regimes. Recovering species must also increasingly tolerate heightened anthropogenic presence, particularly within densely inhabited coastal zones. In recent decades, gray seals (Halichoerus grypus) recovered from exploitation, depletion, and partial extirpation in the Northwest Atlantic. On Cape Cod, MA, USA, gray seals have reestablished growing breeding colonies and seasonally interact with migratory white sharks (Carcarodon carcharias). Though well-studied in portions of their range due to concerns over piscivorous impacts on valuable groundfish, there are broad knowledge gaps regarding their ecological role to US marine ecosystems. Furthermore, there are few studies that explicitly analyze gray seal behavior under direct risk of documented shark predation.

In this dissertation, I apply a behavioral and movement ecology approach to telemetry data to understand gray seal abundance and activity patterns along the coast of Cape Cod. This coastal focus complements extensive research documenting and describing offshore movement and foraging behavior and allows me to address questions about movement decisions and risk allocation. Using beach counts of seals visible in satellite imagery, I estimate the total regional abundance of gray seals using correction factors from haul out behavior and demonstrate a sizeable prey base of gray seals locally. Analyzing intra-annual space use patterns, I document small, concentrated home ranges utilizing nearshore habitats that rapidly expand with shifting activity budgets to target disperse offshore habitats following seasonal declines in white sharks. During the season of dense shark presence, seals conducted abbreviated nocturnal foraging trips structured temporally around divergent use of crepuscular periods. The timing of coastal behavior with different levels of twilight indicate risk allocation patterns with diel cycles of empirical white shark activity. The emergence of risk allocation to explain unique behavioral and spatial patterns observed in these gray seals points to the importance of the restored predator-prey dynamic in gray seal behavior along Cape Cod.

Text-messaging as a Tool for Medication Adherence and Behavior Change in Disease Management among Patients with Coronary Heart Disease

Background: Evidence-based medication and lifestyle modification are important for secondary prevention of cardiovascular disease but are underutilized. Mobile health strategies could address this gap but existing evidence is mixed. Therefore, we piloted a pre-post study to assess the impact of patient-directed text messages as a means of improving medication adherence and modifying major health risk behaviors among coronary heart disease (CHD) patients in Hainan, China.

Methods: 92 CVD patients were surveyed between June and August 2015 (before the intervention) and then between October and December 2015 (after 12 week intervention) about (a) medication use (b) smoking status,(c) fruit and vegetable consumption, and (d) physical activity uptake. Acceptability of text-messaging intervention was assessed at follow-up. Descriptive statistics, along with paired comparisons between the pre and post outcomes were conducted using both parametric (t-test) and non-parametric (Wilcoxon signed rank test) methods.

Results: The number of respondents at follow-up was 82 (89% retention rate). Significant improvements were observed for medication adherence (P<0.001) and for the number of cigarettes smoked per day (P=.022). However there was no change in the number of smokers who quitted smoking at follow-up. There were insignificant changes for physical activity (P=0.91) and fruit and vegetable consumption.

Understanding Suicidal Behavior Among Latin Adolescent Girls Living in the United States

Suicide in adolescents between the age of 10 and 24 years old is the second cause of death in the United States. This rate differentiates by ethnic and racial groups within the same country; Latino/Hispanic adolescent girls have the highest rate of suicide behavior. Considering that Latino/Hispanic is the fastest growing minority group in the nation, with an expected population of 30% by 2060, this issue should be a public health priority. This paper answers the following question: what are the conditions operating among Latin adolescent girls living in the United States that cause significantly higher suicidal behavior rates in the U.S. and compared with their peers in Latin American countries? And, how adequate are treatments such as Dialectical Behavioral Therapy and prevention programs in tackling the specific risk factors affecting this population? The paper is divided into five chapters; the first four are based on a comprehensive literature review of statistics of suicide, risk and protective factors, treatment, and prevention programs. The last chapter offers an analysis of the sociological phenomenon of suicidal behavior in this population and three brief narratives of attempters and non-attempters. Studies show that subjective distress, familism and immigration issues are the key risk factors of suicidal behavior in Latina adolescent girls. Understanding the risk factors is key in order to design promotion and prevention programs that are culturally relevant and that can have a positive impact in the reduction of this alarming phenomenon.

Shared monocyte subset phenotypes in HIV-1 infection and in uninfected subjects with acute coronary syndrome.

The mechanisms responsible for increased cardiovascular risk associated with HIV-1 infection are incompletely defined. Using flow cytometry, in the present study, we examined activation phenotypes of monocyte subpopulations in patients with HIV-1 infection or acute coronary syndrome to find common cellular profiles. Nonclassic (CD14(+)CD16(++)) and intermediate (CD14(++)CD16(+)) monocytes are proportionally increased and express high levels of tissue factor and CD62P in HIV-1 infection. These proportions are related to viremia, T-cell activation, and plasma levels of IL-6. In vitro exposure of whole blood samples from uninfected control donors to lipopolysaccharide increased surface tissue factor expression on all monocyte subsets, but exposure to HIV-1 resulted in activation only of nonclassic monocytes. Remarkably, the profile of monocyte activation in uncontrolled HIV-1 disease mirrors that of acute coronary syndrome in uninfected persons. Therefore, drivers of immune activation and inflammation in HIV-1 disease may alter monocyte subpopulations and activation phenotype, contributing to a pro-atherothrombotic state that may drive cardiovascular risk in HIV-1 infection.

Cervical cancer precursors and hormonal contraceptive use in HIV-positive women: application of a causal model and semi-parametric estimation methods.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the application of causal inference methods to observational data in the obstetrics and gynecology field, particularly causal modeling and semi-parametric estimation. BACKGROUND: Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive women are at increased risk for cervical cancer and its treatable precursors. Determining whether potential risk factors such as hormonal contraception are true causes is critical for informing public health strategies as longevity increases among HIV-positive women in developing countries. METHODS: We developed a causal model of the factors related to combined oral contraceptive (COC) use and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2 or greater (CIN2+) and modified the model to fit the observed data, drawn from women in a cervical cancer screening program at HIV clinics in Kenya. Assumptions required for substantiation of a causal relationship were assessed. We estimated the population-level association using semi-parametric methods: g-computation, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation. RESULTS: We identified 2 plausible causal paths from COC use to CIN2+: via HPV infection and via increased disease progression. Study data enabled estimation of the latter only with strong assumptions of no unmeasured confounding. Of 2,519 women under 50 screened per protocol, 219 (8.7%) were diagnosed with CIN2+. Marginal modeling suggested a 2.9% (95% confidence interval 0.1%, 6.9%) increase in prevalence of CIN2+ if all women under 50 were exposed to COC; the significance of this association was sensitive to method of estimation and exposure misclassification. CONCLUSION: Use of causal modeling enabled clear representation of the causal relationship of interest and the assumptions required to estimate that relationship from the observed data. Semi-parametric estimation methods provided flexibility and reduced reliance on correct model form. Although selected results suggest an increased prevalence of CIN2+ associated with COC, evidence is insufficient to conclude causality. Priority areas for future studies to better satisfy causal criteria are identified.

Obesity, Cardiovascular Risk Factors, and Weight Loss in a Population of Adult Mexican Americans

The study of obesity has evolved into one of the most important public health issues in the United States (U.S.), particularly in Hispanic populations. Mexican Americans, the largest Hispanic ethnic subgroup in the U.S., have been significantly impacted by obesity and related cardiovascular diseases. Mexican Americans living in the Lower Rio Grande Valley (the Valley) in the Texas-Mexico border are one of the most disadvantaged and hard-to-reach minority groups. Demographic factors, socioeconomic status, acculturation, and physical activity behavior have been found to be important predictors of health, although research findings are mixed when establishing predictors of obesity in this population. Furthermore, while obesity has long been linked to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors such as hypertension, type 2 diabetes, and dyslipidemia; information on the relationships between obesity and these CVD risk factors have been mostly from non-minority population groups. Overall, research has been mixed in establishing the association between obesity and related CVD risk factors in this population calling attention to the need for further research. Nevertheless, identifying predictors of success for weight loss in this population will be important if health disparities are to be addressed. The overall objective of the findings presented in this dissertation was to attain a more informed profile of obesity and CVD risk factors in this population. In particular, we examined predictors of obesity, measures of obesity and association with cardiovascular disease risk factors in a sample of 975 Mexican Americans participating in a health promotion program in the Valley region. Findings suggest acculturation factors to be one of the most important predictors of obesity in this population. Results also point to the need of identifying other possible risk factors for predicting CVD risk. Finally, initial body mass index is an important predictor of weight loss in this population group. Thus, indicating that this population is not only amenable to change, but that improvements in weight loss are feasible. This finding strengthens the relevance of prevention programs such as Beyond Sabor for Mexican populations at risk, in particular, food bank recipients.

Parents’ Perception of Medication Treatments for Preschool Children with or at – risk for ADHD

Introduction: ADHD is a chronic medical condition that affects 3-7% of school-aged children. Over the last few years, there has been increased attention with children in the preschool age range. The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) recommends that treatment for ADHD in the preschool age range should take the form of behavior modification first, with medication only considered after behavior modification is not effective alone in treating the symptoms (AAP, 2011). However, little research has been done to examine parent perceptions of evidence-based treatment approaches for children in the preschool age range. Objective: This study sought to examine parent perceptions of psychotropic medication use for preschool age (4-6 years) children with or at-risk of ADHD. Method: Data was collected from 176 families who presented for treatment at a clinic in southeast Florida. Parents completed questionnaires about their family background, their child’s behavior, behavioral functioning, and their perceptions of medication treatment. Results: Preliminary results indicate that 50% of parents were not open to the possibility of medication, 44.6% of parents were open to the possibility of medication, and 5.4% of parents chose against medication when a physician recommended it. Results examining the extent to which severity of child behavior problems impacts parent perceptions of medication will also be presented. Conclusion: These findings demonstrate that parents of preschool children are hesitant to consider medication as a treatment option for their young children. The findings of this study are important as more and more young children are being diagnosed with ADHD each year

Risk Preferences and the Role of Emotions

There is a large volume of research showing that emotions have relevant effects on decision-making. We contribute to this literature by experimentally investigating the impact of four specific emotional states - joviality, sadness, fear, and anger - on risk attitudes. In order to do so, we fit two models of behavior under risk: the Expected Utility model (EU) and the Rank Dependent Expected Utility model (RDEU), assuming several functional forms of the weighting function. Our results indicate that all emotional states mitigate risk aversion. Furthermore, we show that there are some differences across gender and participants' experience in laboratory experiments.

Respiratory virus-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and viral clustering in Malawian children in a setting with a high prevalence of HIV, malaria and malnutrition

BACKGROUND:  We used four years of paediatric severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) sentinel surveillance in Blantyre, Malawi to identify factors associated with clinical severity and co-viral clustering.

METHODS:  From January 2011 to December 2014, 2363 children aged 3 months to 14 years presenting to hospital with SARI were enrolled. Nasopharyngeal aspirates were tested for influenza and other respiratory viruses. We assessed risk factors for clinical severity and conducted clustering analysis to identify viral clusters in children with co-viral detection.

RESULTS:  Hospital-attended influenza-positive SARI incidence was 2.0 cases per 10,000 children annually; it was highest children aged under 1 year (6.3 cases per 10,000), and HIV-infected children aged 5 to 9 years (6.0 cases per 10,000). 605 (26.8%) SARI cases had warning signs, which were positively associated with HIV infection (adjusted risk ratio [aRR]: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.4, 3.9), RSV infection (aRR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.3, 3.0) and rainy season (aRR: 2.4, 95% CI: 1.6, 3.8). We identified six co-viral clusters; one cluster was associated with SARI with warning signs.

CONCLUSIONS:  Influenza vaccination may benefit young children and HIV infected children in this setting. Viral clustering may be associated with SARI severity; its assessment should be included in routine SARI surveillance.