Positive development and assessment

Purpose – There has been a tendency in sustainability science to be passive. The purpose of this paper is to introduce an alternative positive framework for a more active and direct approach to sustainable design and assessment that de-couples environmental impacts and economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – This paper deconstructs some systemic gaps that are critical to sustainability in built environment management processes and tools, and reframes negative “sustainable” decision making and assessment frameworks into their positive counterparts. In particular, it addresses the omission of ecology, design and ethics in development assessment. Findings – Development can be designed to provide ecological gains and surplus “eco-services,” but assessment tools and processes favor business-as-usual. Despite the tenacity of the dominant paradigm (DP) in sustainable development institutionalized by the Brundtland Report over 25 years ago, these omissions are easily corrected. Research limitations/implications – The limitation is that the author was unable to find exceptions to the omissions cited here in the extensive literature on urban planning and building assessment tools. However, exceptions prove the rule. The implication is that it is not too late for eco-positive retrofitting of cities to increase natural and social capital. The solutions are just as applicable in places like China and India as the USA, as they pay for themselves. Originality/value – Positive development (PD) is a fundamental paradigm shift that reverses the negative models, methods and metrics of the DP of sustainable development. This paper provides an example of how existing “negative” concepts and practices can be converted into positive ones through a PD prism. Through a new form of bio-physical design, development can be a sustainability solution.

Mobile medical applications for melanoma risk assessment: False assurance or valuable tool?

With the smartphone revolution, consumer-focused mobile medical applications (apps) have flooded the market without restriction. We searched the market for commercially available apps on all mobile platforms that could provide automated risk analysis of the most serious skin cancer, melanoma. We tested 5 relevant apps against 15 images of previously excised skin lesions and compared the apps' risk grades to the known histopathologic diagnosis of the lesions. Two of the apps did not identify any of the melanomas. The remaining 3 apps obtained 80% sensitivity for melanoma risk identification; specificities for the 5 apps ranged from 20%-100%. Each app provided its own grading and recommendation scale and included a disclaimer recommending regular dermatologist evaluation regardless of the analysis outcome. The results indicate that autonomous lesion analysis is not yet ready for use as a triage tool. More concerning is the lack of restrictions and regulations for these applications.

Ultrasound attenuation computed tomography assessment of PAGAT gel dose

Ultrasound has been previously investigated as an alternative readout method for irradiated polymer gel dosimeters, with authors reporting varying dose responses. We extend previous work utilizing a new computed tomography ultrasound scanner comprising of two identical 5 MHz, 128-element linear-array ultrasound transducers, co-axially aligned and submerged in water as a coupling agent, with rotational of the gel dosimeter between the transducers facilitated by a robotic arm. We have investigated the dose-dependence of both ultrasound bulk attenuation and broadband ultrasound attenuation (BUA) for the PAGAT gel dosimeter. The ultrasound bulk attenuation dose sensitivity was found to be 1.46  ±  0.04 dB m −1 Gy −1, being in agreement with previously published results for PAG and MAGIC gels. BUA was also found to be dose dependent and was measured to be 0.024  ±  0.003 dB MHz −1 Gy −1; the advantage of BUA being its insensitivity to frequency-independent attenuation mechanisms including reflection and refraction, thereby minimizing image reconstruction artefacts.

Does size matter? An assessment of quota market evolution and performance in the Great Barrier Reef fin-fish fishery

In fisheries managed using individual transferable quotas (ITQs) it is generally assumed that quota markets are well-functioning, allowing quota to flow on either a temporary or permanent basis to those able to make best use of it. However, despite an increasing number of fisheries being managed under ITQs, empirical assessments of the quota markets that have actually evolved in these fisheries remain scarce. The Queensland Coral Reef Fin-Fish Fishery (CRFFF) on the Great Barrier Reef has been managed under a system of ITQs since 2004. Data on individual quota holdings and trades for the period 2004-2012 were used to assess the CRFFF quota market and its evolution through time. Network analysis was applied to assess market structure and the nature of lease-trading relationships. An assessment of market participants’ abilities to balance their quota accounts, i.e., gap analysis, provided insights into market functionality and how this may have changed in the period observed. Trends in ownership and trade were determined, and market participants were identified as belonging to one out of a set of seven generalized types. The emergence of groups such as investors and lease-dependent fishers is clear. In 2011-2012, 41% of coral trout quota was owned by participants that did not fish it, and 64% of total coral trout landings were made by fishers that owned only 10% of the quota. Quota brokers emerged whose influence on the market varied with the bioeconomic conditions of the fishery. Throughout the study period some quota was found to remain inactive, implying potential market inefficiencies. Contribution to this inactivity appeared asymmetrical, with most residing in the hands of smaller quota holders. The importance of transaction costs in the operation of the quota market and the inequalities that may result are discussed in light of these findings

Current research: Neurocognitive risk assessment

The current research began from the starting point that what we are grappling with when we are dealing with violent extremists by and large is essentially ‘normal people’. What follows in this third major section of this research paper is the theoretical and conceptual search for making researchable the following question: ‘How do you assess someone who is normal?’

Development and validation of the Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score and 2h accelerated diagnostic protocol

Objective Risk scores and accelerated diagnostic protocols can identify chest pain patients with low risk of major adverse cardiac event who could be discharged early from the ED, saving time and costs. We aimed to derive and validate a chest pain score and accelerated diagnostic protocol (ADP) that could safely increase the proportion of patients suitable for early discharge. Methods Logistic regression identified statistical predictors for major adverse cardiac events in a derivation cohort. Statistical coefficients were converted to whole numbers to create a score. Clinician feedback was used to improve the clinical plausibility and the usability of the final score (Emergency Department Assessment of Chest pain Score [EDACS]). EDACS was combined with electrocardiogram results and troponin results at 0 and 2 h to develop an ADP (EDACS-ADP). The score and EDACS-ADP were validated and tested for reproducibility in separate cohorts of patients. Results In the derivation (n = 1974) and validation (n = 608) cohorts, the EDACS-ADP classified 42.2% (sensitivity 99.0%, specificity 49.9%) and 51.3% (sensitivity 100.0%, specificity 59.0%) as low risk of major adverse cardiac events, respectively. The intra-class correlation coefficient for categorisation of patients as low risk was 0.87. Conclusion The EDACS-ADP identified approximately half of the patients presenting to the ED with possible cardiac chest pain as having low risk of short-term major adverse cardiac events, with high sensitivity. This is a significant improvement on similar, previously reported protocols. The EDACS-ADP is reproducible and has the potential to make considerable cost reductions to health systems.

Performance assessment in a heat exchanger tube fitted with double counter twisted tape inserts

The present study explored the effects of the double counter twisted tapes on heat transfer and fluid friction characteristics in a heat exchanger tube. The double counter twisted tapes were used as counter-swirl flow generators in the test section. The experiments were performed with double counter twisted tapes of four different twist ratios (y = 1.95, 3.85, 5.92 and 7.75) using air as the testing fluid in a circular tube turbulent flow regime where the Reynolds number was varied from 6950 to 50,050. The experimental results demonstrated that the Nusselt number, friction factor and thermal enhancement efficiency were increased with decreasing twist ratio. The results also revealed that the heat transfer rate in the tube fitted with double counter twisted tape was significantly increased with corresponding increase in pressure drop. In the range of the present work, heat transfer rate and friction factor were obtained to be around 60 to 240% and 91 to 286% higher than those of the plain tube values, respectively. The maximum thermal enhancement efficiency of 1.34 was achieved by the use of double counter twisted tapes at constant blower power. In addition, the empirical correlations for the Nusselt number, friction factor and thermal enhancement efficiency were also developed, based on the experimental data.

Probabilistic assessment of herbicide runoff from Japanese rice paddies: The effects of local meteorological conditions and site-specific water management

Uncertainty assessments of herbicide losses from rice paddies in Japan associated with local meteorological conditions and water management practices were performed using a pesticide fate and transport model, PCPF-1, under the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation scheme. First, MC simulations were conducted for five different cities with a prescribed water management scenario and a 10-year meteorological dataset of each city. The effectiveness of water management was observed regarding the reduction of pesticide runoff. However, a greater potential of pesticide runoff remained in Western Japan. Secondly, an extended analysis was attempted to evaluate the effects of local water management and meteorological conditions between the Chikugo River basin and the Sakura River basin using uncertainty inputs processed from observed water management data. The results showed that because of more severe rainfall events, significant pesticide runoff occurred in the Chikugo River basin even when appropriate irrigation practices were implemented. © Pesticide Science Society of Japan.

Exposure risk assessment and evaluation of the best management practice for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. Part 2: Model simulation for the herbicide pretilachlor

BACKGROUND: Monitoring studies revealed high concentrations of pesticides in the drainage canal of paddy fields. It is important to have a way to predict these concentrations in different management scenarios as an assessment tool. A simulation model for predicting the pesticide concentration in a paddy block (PCPF-B) was evaluated and then used to assess the effect of water management practices for controlling pesticide runoff from paddy fields. RESULTS: The PCPF-B model achieved an acceptable performance. The model was applied to a constrained probabilistic approach using the Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the best management practices for reducing runoff of pretilachlor into the canal. The probabilistic model predictions using actual data of pesticide use and hydrological data in the canal showed that the water holding period (WHP) and the excess water storage depth (EWSD) effectively reduced the loss and concentration of pretilachlor from paddy fields to the drainage canal. The WHP also reduced the timespan of pesticide exposure in the drainage canal. CONCLUSIONS: It is recommended that: (1) the WHP be applied for as long as possible, but for at least 7 days, depending on the pesticide and field conditions; (2) an EWSD greater than 2 cm be maintained to store substantial rainfall in order to prevent paddy runoff, especially during the WHP.

Pesticide exposure assessment in rice paddy areas: A Japanese perspective

This chapter provides an overview of the Japanese regulatory issues regarding pesticide use in rice paddies and an introduction of the new pesticide registration program. In addition, the experience of the environmental monitoring of pesticides and the modeling approaches used for the calculation of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) in surface water and ground water systems adjacent to rice paddies in Japan are also discussed. Japan has been one of the major pesticide users in the world. Although having a long history in rice cultivation, the pesticide exposure assessment for paddy rice production received less attention compared with EU and US. Applications of up-to-date techniques and the development of realistic assessment procedures under specific climatic conditions as well as mitigation management practices for controlling pesticide contamination are important for an environmental-friendly rice production. Through the international cooperation and research exchanges, advances in pesticide risk assessment for rice paddies in Asian region and other rice-growing areas in the world would contribute to sustainable rice production. Transplanting of rice seedlings grows almost all rice paddies in Japan. The land preparation starts around April and June, and the harvest season lasts from August to October depending on the region and the rice varieties. Most of the rice paddies are treated with herbicides and other crop protection products, such as fungicides and insecticides that are applied during the crop season accordingly. Newly developed insecticides and fungicides are also applied during seedbed preparation.

Modeling approaches for pesticide exposure assessment in rice paddies

Pesticide use in paddy rice production may contribute to adverse ecological effects in surface waters. Risk assessments conducted for regulatory purposes depend on the use of simulation models to determine predicted environment concentrations (PEC) of pesticides. Often tiered approaches are used, in which assessments at lower tiers are based on relatively simple models with conservative scenarios, while those at higher tiers have more realistic representations of physical and biochemical processes. This chapter reviews models commonly used for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides in rice paddies. Theoretical considerations, unique features, and applications are discussed. This review is expected to provide information to guide model selection for pesticide registration, regulation, and mitigation in rice production areas.

Environmental health risk assessment of dioxin in foods at the two most severe dioxin hot spots in Vietnam

Background Bien Hoa and Da Nang airbases were bulk storages for Agent Orange during the Vietnam War and currently are the two most severe dioxin hot spots. Objectives This study assesses the health risk of exposure to dioxin through foods for local residents living in seven wards surrounding these airbases. Methods This study follows the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework to assess the health risk of exposure to dioxin in foods. Forty-six pooled samples of commonly consumed local foods were collected and analyzed for dioxin/furans. A food frequency and Knowledge–Attitude–Practice survey was also undertaken at 1000 local households, various stakeholders were involved and related publications were reviewed. Results Total dioxin/furan concentrations in samples of local “high-risk” foods (e.g. free range chicken meat and eggs, ducks, freshwater fish, snail and beef) ranged from 3.8 pg TEQ/g to 95 pg TEQ/g, while in “low-risk” foods (e.g. caged chicken meat and eggs, seafoods, pork, leafy vegetables, fruits, and rice) concentrations ranged from 0.03 pg TEQ/g to 6.1 pg TEQ/g. Estimated daily intake of dioxin if people who did not consume local high risk foods ranged from 3.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 6.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Bien Hoa) and from 1.2 pg TEQ/kg bw/day to 4.3 pg TEQ/kg bw/day (Da Nang). Consumption of local high risk foods resulted in extremely high dioxin daily intakes (60.4–102.8 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Bien Hoa; 27.0–148.0 pg TEQ/kg bw/day in Da Nang). Conclusions Consumption of local “high-risk” foods increases dioxin daily intakes far above the WHO recommended TDI (1–4 pg TEQ/kg bw/day). Practicing appropriate preventive measures is necessary to significantly reduce exposure and health risk.

Assessment of body composition in Sri Lankan children: Validation of a bioelectrical impedance prediction equation

Objective: To develop bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations to predict total body water (TBW) and fat-free mass (FFM) of Sri Lankan children. Subjects/Methods: Data were collected from 5- to 15-year-old healthy children. They were randomly assigned to validation (M/F: 105/83) and cross-validation (M/F: 53/41) groups. Height, weight and BIA were measured. TBW was assessed using isotope dilution method (D2 O). Multiple regression analysis was used to develop preliminary equations and cross-validated on an independent group. Final prediction equation was constructed combining the two groups and validated by PRESS (prediction of sum of squares) statistics. Impedance index (height2/impedance; cm2/Ω), weight and sex code (male = 1; female = 0) were used as variables. Results: Independent variables of the final prediction equation for TBW were able to predict 86.3% of variance with root means-squared error (RMSE) of 2.1l. PRESS statistics was 2.1l with press residuals of 1.2l. Independent variables were able to predict 86.9% of variance of FFM with RMSE of 2.7 kg. PRESS statistics was 2.8 kg with press residuals of 1.4 kg. Bland Altman technique showed that the majority of the residuals were within mean bias±1.96 s.d. Conclusions: Results of this study provide BIA equation for the prediction of TBW and FFM in Sri Lankan children. To the best of our knowledge there are no published BIA prediction equations validated on South Asian populations. Results of this study need to be affirmed by more studies on other closely related populations by using multi-component body composition assessment.

Impact of ethnicity upon body composition assessment in Sri Lankan Australian children

Objectives: Obesity is a disease with excess body fat where health is adversely affected. Therefore it is prudent to make the diagnosis of obesity based on the measure of percentage body fat. Body composition of a group of Australian children of Sri Lankan origin were studied to evaluate the applicability of some bedside techniques in the measurement of percentage body fat. Methods: Height (H) and weight (W) was measured and BMI (W/H2) calculated. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) was measured using tetra polar technique with an 800 μA current of 50 Hz frequency. Total body water was used as a reference method and was determined by deuterium dilution and fat free mass and hence fat mass (FM) derived using age and gender specific constants. Percentage FM was estimated using four predictive equations, which used BIA and anthropometric measurements. Results: Twenty-seven boys and 15 girls were studied with mean ages being 9.1 years and 9.6 years, respectively. Girls had a significantly higher FM compared to boys. The mean percentage FM of boys (22.9 ± 8.7%) was higher than the limit for obesity and for girls (29.0 ± 6.0%) it was just below the cut-off. BMI was comparatively low. All but BIA equation in boys under estimated the percentage FM. The impedance index and weight showed a strong association with total body water (r 2 = 0.96, P < 0.001). Except for BIA in boys all other techniques under diagnosed obesity. Conclusions: Sri Lankan Australian children appear to have a high percentage of fat with a low BMI and some of the available indirect techniques are not helpful in the assessment of body composition. Therefore ethnic and/or population specific predictive equations have to be developed for the assessment of body composition, especially in a multicultural society using indirect methods such as BIA or anthropometry.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.