989 resultados para Geological extrapolation
Resumo:
Many antidepressants have been introduced as racemic drugs, the enantiomers of which may differ in some of their pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic properties. This review argues that each enantiomer of a chiral antidepressant should be evaluated according to its individual characteristics rather than by extrapolation from the racemate, or by assumptions based on the stereoselective characteristics of other enantiomeric drugs. For example, in some cases the enantiomers' pharmacodynamic and therapeutic properties can be complementary, which suggests that the racemate should be used clinically. In other cases where enantiomers show qualitatively similar but quantitatively different properties to the racemate, using a single enantiomer might be more appropriate. In yet further cases, a distomer may induce the metabolism of the eutomer, enantiomers may be metabolised by different enzymes, there may be a different profile of drug-drug interactions, and therapeutic drug monitoring may be simpler. Therefore, this review exemplifies the principle that each enantiomer of a chiral antidepressant should be evaluated according to its individual pharmacological, pharmacokinetic and pharmacogenetic characteristics. These factors are discussed in relation to five chiral antidepressants: trimipramine, mianserin, mirtazapine, fluoxetine and citalopram. It is hoped that an appreciation of the stereoselective differences between enantiomers will facilitate improvements in the benefit:risk ratio of drugs used in the management of depression.
Resumo:
Generation of fluids during metamorphism can significantly influence the fluid overpressure, and thus the fluid flow in metamorphic terrains. There is currently a large focus on developing numerical reactive transport models, and with it follows the need for analytical solutions to ensure correct numerical implementation. In this study, we derive both analytical and numerical solutions to reaction-induced fluid overpressure, coupled to temperature and fluid flow out of the reacting front. All equations are derived from basic principles of conservation of mass, energy and momentum. We focus on contact metamorphism, where devolatilization reactions are particularly important owing to high thermal fluxes allowing large volumes of fluids to be rapidly generated. The analytical solutions reveal three key factors involved in the pressure build-up: (i) The efficiency of the devolatilizing reaction front (pressure build-up) relative to fluid flow (pressure relaxation), (ii) the reaction temperature relative to the available heat in the system and (iii) the feedback of overpressure on the reaction temperature as a function of the Clapeyron slope. Finally, we apply the model to two geological case scenarios. In the first case, we investigate the influence of fluid overpressure on the movement of the reaction front and show that it can slow down significantly and may even be terminated owing to increased effective reaction temperature. In the second case, the model is applied to constrain the conditions for fracturing and inferred breccia pipe formation in organic-rich shales owing to methane generation in the contact aureole.
Resumo:
Uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models is one of the present challenges, which is usually approached with a wide range of geostatistical tools linked with statistical optimisation or/and inference algorithms. Recent advances in machine learning offer a novel approach to model spatial distribution of petrophysical properties in complex reservoirs alternative to geostatistics. The approach is based of semisupervised learning, which handles both ?labelled? observed data and ?unlabelled? data, which have no measured value but describe prior knowledge and other relevant data in forms of manifolds in the input space where the modelled property is continuous. Proposed semi-supervised Support Vector Regression (SVR) model has demonstrated its capability to represent realistic geological features and describe stochastic variability and non-uniqueness of spatial properties. On the other hand, it is able to capture and preserve key spatial dependencies such as connectivity of high permeability geo-bodies, which is often difficult in contemporary petroleum reservoir studies. Semi-supervised SVR as a data driven algorithm is designed to integrate various kind of conditioning information and learn dependences from it. The semi-supervised SVR model is able to balance signal/noise levels and control the prior belief in available data. In this work, stochastic semi-supervised SVR geomodel is integrated into Bayesian framework to quantify uncertainty of reservoir production with multiple models fitted to past dynamic observations (production history). Multiple history matched models are obtained using stochastic sampling and/or MCMC-based inference algorithms, which evaluate posterior probability distribution. Uncertainty of the model is described by posterior probability of the model parameters that represent key geological properties: spatial correlation size, continuity strength, smoothness/variability of spatial property distribution. The developed approach is illustrated with a fluvial reservoir case. The resulting probabilistic production forecasts are described by uncertainty envelopes. The paper compares the performance of the models with different combinations of unknown parameters and discusses sensitivity issues.
Resumo:
Major climatic and geological events but also population history (secondary contacts) have generated cycles of population isolation and connection of long and short periods. Recent empirical and theoretical studies suggest that fast evolutionary processes might be triggered by such events, as commonly illustrated in ecology by the adaptive radiation of cichlid fishes (isolation and reconnection of lakes and watersheds) and in epidemiology by the fast adaptation of the influenza virus (isolation and reconnection in hosts). We test whether cyclic population isolation and connection provide the raw material (standing genetic variation) for species evolution and diversification. Our analytical results demonstrate that population isolation and connection can provide, to populations, a high excess of genetic diversity compared with what is expected at equilibrium. This excess is either cyclic (high allele turnover) or cumulates with time depending on the duration of the isolation and the connection periods and the mutation rate. We show that diversification rates of animal clades are associated with specific periods of climatic cycles in the Quaternary. We finally discuss the importance of our results for macroevolutionary patterns and for the inference of population history from genomic data.
Resumo:
The history of the opening seaway from the westernmost Tethys to the Central Atlantic is traced by the analysis of the sedimentary facies development in the external Rif basin of Northern Morocco and the geological and seismic data from the Moroccan Atlantic continental margin. In the Rif basin, after the early Sinemurian, sedimentary facies dated by ammonites, foraminifers and brachiopods, indicate a progression of rapid subsidence resulting from extensional tectonic (tilted blocks, escarpment fault breccias, neptunian dykes etc.) from the N and NE to the S and SW. From the Toarcian to the Bajocian, deltas progress from the W and SW into the `'Rides sud-rifaines'' realm. From the late Bathonian to the Oxfordian, deep-sea fans develop in the external Rif. During the same period, deltaic sediments fill in the Middle Atlas basin of Eastern Morocco and progress into the external Rif. The top of the Jurassic is characterised by carbonate deposits. At the northwestern corner of Africa, the subsidence of the sedimentary basins by rifting is initiated in the late Triassic; however, at the Mazagan transect of the Atlantic continental margin, the tectonic pattern characteristic of a passive continental margin appears clearly only in the early Jurassic. At the foot of the Mazagan escarpment, the sedimentary record shows a foundering of the first bloc during early to middle Lias. A thermal uplift phase is indicated by emersion of the African margin shoulder in late Liassic, and thermal relaxation starts in the middle Jurassic. The morphology of this transect, compared with the conjugate side of the American continent is most easily explained by the uniform sense simple shear model.
Resumo:
Recent detailed studies on the Batain nappes (northeast coast of Oman), which represent a special part of the so-called `Oman Exotics', have led to a better understanding of the Neotethyan geodynamic evolution. The Batain Exotics bear witness to volcanic activity, sea-level changes, tectonic instability, rifting and oceanization along the Eastern Oman margin during Late Palaeozoic and Mesozoic times. They allow definition of the Batain basin as an aborted Permian branch of Neotethys. This marine basin was created in Early Permian times extending southward to the East African/Madagascar region and was linked to the Karoo rift system. The presented revised classification of the Batain nappes considers the Batain basin to be no longer a part of the Hawasina basin and the Neotethyan mat-gin proper. We attribute the Batain basin to a Mozambique-Sornali-Masirah rift system (Somoma). This system started in Early Permian, times, creating a marine basin between Arabia and India/Madagascar; rifting in the Late Triassic and oceanization during Late Jurassic times led to the separation of East Gondwana.
Resumo:
In this study we evaluate the dynamics of the biophile element phosphorus (P) in the catchment and proglacial areas of the Rhone and Oberaar glaciers (central Switzerland). We analysed erosion and dissolution rates of P-containing minerals in the subglacial environment by sampling water and suspended sediment in glacier outlets during three ablation and two accumulation seasons. We also quantified biogeochemical weathering rates of detrital P in proglacial sedimentary deposits using two chronosequences of samples of fresh, suspended, material obtained from the Oberaar and Rhone water outlets, Little-Ice-Age (LIA) moraines and Younger Dryas (YD) tills in each catchment. Subglacial P weathering is mainly a physical process and detrital P represents more than 99%, of the precipitation-corrected total P denudation flux (234 and 540 kg km(-2) yr(-1) for the Rhone and Oberaar catchments, respectively). The calculated detrital P flux rates are three to almost five times higher than the world average flux. The precipitation-corrected soluble reactive P (SRP) flux corresponds to 1.88-1.99 kg km(-2) yr(-1) (Rhone) and 2.12-2.44 kg km(-2) yr(-1) (Oberaar), respectively. These fluxes are comparable to those of tropical rivers draining transport-limited, tectonically inactive weathering areas. In order to evaluate the efficiency of detrital P weathering in the Rhone and Oberaar proglacial areas, we systematically graded apatite grains extracted from the chronosequence in each catchment relative to weathering-induced changes in their surface morphologies (grades 1-4). Fresh apatite grains are heavily indented and dissolution rounded (grade 1). LIA grains from two 0-10 cm deep moraine samples show extensive dissolution etching, similar to surface grains from the YD profile (mean grades 2.7, 3.5 and 3.5, respectively). In these proglacial deposits, the weathering front deepens progressively as a function of time due to biocorrosion in the evolving acidic pedosphere, with mechanical indentations on grains acting as sites of preferential dissolution. We also measured iron-bound, organic and detrital P concentrations in the chronosequence and show that organic and iron-bound P has almost completely replaced detrital P in the top layers of the YD profiles. Detrital P weathering rates are calculated as 3 10 and 280 kg km(-2) yr(-1) for LIA moraines and 10 kg km(-2) yr(-1) for YD tills. During the first 300 years of glacial sediment exposure P dissolution rates are shown to be approximately 70 times higher than the mean global dissolved P flux from ice-free continents. After 11.6 kyr the flux is 2.5 times the global mean. These data strengthen the argument for substantial changes in the global dissolved P flux on glacial-interglacial timescales. A crude extrapolation from the data described here suggests that the global dissolved P flux may increase by 40-45% during the first few hundred years of a deglaciation phase
Resumo:
The Mirdita Ophiolite Zone in Albania is associated with widespread melanges containing components of up to nappe-size. We dated matrix and components of the melange by radiolarians, conodonts, and other taxa. The components consist of radiolarites, pelagic limestones and shallow-water limestones, all of Triassic age, as well as ophiolites. Triassic radiolarite as a primary cover of ophiolite material proves Middle Triassic onset of Mirdita ocean-floor formation. The melange contains a turbiditic radiolarite-rich matrix (''radiolaritic flysch''), dated as Late Bajocian to Early Oxfordian. It formed as a synorogenic sediment during west-directed thrusting of ophiolite and sediment-cover nappes representing ocean floor and underplated fragments of the western continental margin. The tectonic structures formed during these orogenic events (''Younger Kimmeridian or Eohellenic Orogeny'') are sealed by Late Jurassic platform carbonates. The geological history conforms with that of the Inner Dinarides and adjoining areas; we therefore correlate the Mirdita-Pindos Ophiolite Zone with the Vardar Zone and explain its present position by far-distance west-directed thrusting.
Resumo:
A metasomatic diopside rock occurs at the top of the dolomitic Connemara Marble Formation of western Ireland and contains titanite and K-feldspar in addition to around 90% diopside (X(Mg) = 0.90-0.97). U-Pb isotopic measurements on this mineral assemblage show that the titanite is both unusually uranium-rich and isotopically concordant, with the result that a precise U-Pb age of 478 +/- 2.5 Ma can be determined. The age is identical within error to a less precise Rb-Sr age of diopside-K-feldspar of 483 +/- 6 Ma. Petrological evidence indicates that the assemblage crystallized at c. 620-degrees-C close to or below the closure temperature of titanite. The age thus provides a precise estimate of the time of metamorphism; this age is 11 +/- 3 Ma younger than the 490 Ma age for nearby gabbroic plutons which has previously been used to constrain the peak metamorphic age. This difference accords well with geological evidence that the gabbros were emplaced prior to the metamorphic peak. Analysis of minerals with high closure temperature from assemblages whose crystallization is unambiguously associated with a specific episode of fluid infiltration at the peak of metamorphism provides the basis for a new approach to dating metamorphism. The success of this approach is demonstrated by the results from Connemara.
Resumo:
Hydrogeological research usually includes some statistical studies devised to elucidate mean background state, characterise relationships among different hydrochemical parameters, and show the influence of human activities. These goals are achieved either by means of a statistical approach or by mixing modelsbetween end-members. Compositional data analysis has proved to be effective with the first approach, but there is no commonly accepted solution to the end-member problem in a compositional framework.We present here a possible solution based on factor analysis of compositions illustrated with a case study.We find two factors on the compositional bi-plot fitting two non-centered orthogonal axes to the most representative variables. Each one of these axes defines a subcomposition, grouping those variables thatlay nearest to it. With each subcomposition a log-contrast is computed and rewritten as an equilibrium equation. These two factors can be interpreted as the isometric log-ratio coordinates (ilr) of three hiddencomponents, that can be plotted in a ternary diagram. These hidden components might be interpreted as end-members.We have analysed 14 molarities in 31 sampling stations all along the Llobregat River and its tributaries, with a monthly measure during two years. We have obtained a bi-plot with a 57% of explained totalvariance, from which we have extracted two factors: factor G, reflecting geological background enhanced by potash mining; and factor A, essentially controlled by urban and/or farming wastewater. Graphicalrepresentation of these two factors allows us to identify three extreme samples, corresponding to pristine waters, potash mining influence and urban sewage influence. To confirm this, we have available analysisof diffused and widespread point sources identified in the area: springs, potash mining lixiviates, sewage, and fertilisers. Each one of these sources shows a clear link with one of the extreme samples, exceptfertilisers due to the heterogeneity of their composition.This approach is a useful tool to distinguish end-members, and characterise them, an issue generally difficult to solve. It is worth note that the end-member composition cannot be fully estimated but only characterised through log-ratio relationships among components. Moreover, the influence of each endmember in a given sample must be evaluated in relative terms of the other samples. These limitations areintrinsic to the relative nature of compositional data
Resumo:
In this second article of a series of three, we will discuss using the Metaplan technique on controversial issues of health outcomes in economic evaluation of health care interventions. The four-discussion areas focus on: choice of health outcomes measures, where any outcome measure is superior to another; extrapolation and transferability of health outcomes measures, which should not be assumed the results of an EEIS of one country to another without making certain adjustments; appropriate instruments to measure quality of life in Spain, where the EQ-5D was indicated as convenient due to its widespread international use; and, indirect comparisons, where the combination of both comparisons, direct and indirect, it would be advisable if the test for indirect estimates is consistent and has been validated. Finally, research lines to try to overcome the identified discrepancies were identified in each of these areas, some of those are: doing studies of correlation between scores of specific and generic instruments measuring quality of life; update or create a database of economic evaluations in Spain; estimating utilities for the Spanish population by existing generic and specific instruments; or, establish a common way to show the results of a meta-analysis network.
Resumo:
There is almost not a case in exploration geology, where the studied data doesn’tincludes below detection limits and/or zero values, and since most of the geological dataresponds to lognormal distributions, these “zero data” represent a mathematicalchallenge for the interpretation.We need to start by recognizing that there are zero values in geology. For example theamount of quartz in a foyaite (nepheline syenite) is zero, since quartz cannot co-existswith nepheline. Another common essential zero is a North azimuth, however we canalways change that zero for the value of 360°. These are known as “Essential zeros”, butwhat can we do with “Rounded zeros” that are the result of below the detection limit ofthe equipment?Amalgamation, e.g. adding Na2O and K2O, as total alkalis is a solution, but sometimeswe need to differentiate between a sodic and a potassic alteration. Pre-classification intogroups requires a good knowledge of the distribution of the data and the geochemicalcharacteristics of the groups which is not always available. Considering the zero valuesequal to the limit of detection of the used equipment will generate spuriousdistributions, especially in ternary diagrams. Same situation will occur if we replace thezero values by a small amount using non-parametric or parametric techniques(imputation).The method that we are proposing takes into consideration the well known relationshipsbetween some elements. For example, in copper porphyry deposits, there is always agood direct correlation between the copper values and the molybdenum ones, but whilecopper will always be above the limit of detection, many of the molybdenum values willbe “rounded zeros”. So, we will take the lower quartile of the real molybdenum valuesand establish a regression equation with copper, and then we will estimate the“rounded” zero values of molybdenum by their corresponding copper values.The method could be applied to any type of data, provided we establish first theircorrelation dependency.One of the main advantages of this method is that we do not obtain a fixed value for the“rounded zeros”, but one that depends on the value of the other variable.Key words: compositional data analysis, treatment of zeros, essential zeros, roundedzeros, correlation dependency
Resumo:
Background: Excessive exposure to solar Ultra-Violet (UV) light is the main cause of most skin cancers in humans. Factors such as the increase of solar irradiation at ground level (anthropic pollution), the rise in standard of living (vacation in sunny areas), and (mostly) the development of outdoor activities have contributed to increase exposure. Thus, unsurprisingly, incidence of skin cancers has increased over the last decades more than that of any other cancer. Melanoma is the most lethal cutaneous cancer, while cutaneous carcinomas are the most common cancer type worldwide. UV exposure depends on environmental as well as individual factors related to activity. The influence of individual factors on exposure among building workers was investigated in a previous study. Posture and orientation were found to account for at least 38% of the total variance of relative individual exposure. A high variance of short-term exposure was observed between different body locations, indicating the occurrence of intense, subacute exposures. It was also found that effective short-term exposure ranged between 0 and 200% of ambient irradiation, suggesting that ambient irradiation is a poor predictor of effective exposure. Various dosimetric techniques enable to assess individual effective exposure, but dosimetric measurements remain tedious and tend to be situation-specific. As a matter of facts, individual factors (exposure time, body posture and orientation in the sun) often limit the extrapolation of exposure results to similar activities conducted in other conditions. Objective: The research presented in this paper aims at developing and validating a predictive tool of effective individual exposure to solar UV. Methods: Existing computer graphic techniques (3D rendering) were adapted to reflect solar exposure conditions and calculate short-term anatomical doses. A numerical model, represented as a 3D triangular mesh, is used to represent the exposed body. The amount of solar energy received by each "triangle is calculated, taking into account irradiation intensity, incidence angle and possible shadowing from other body parts. The model take into account the three components of the solar irradiation (direct, diffuse and albedo) as well as the orientation and posture of the body. Field measurements were carried out using a forensic mannequin at the Payerne MeteoSwiss station. Short-term dosimetric measurements were performed in 7 anatomical locations for 5 body postures. Field results were compared to the model prediction obtained from the numerical model. Results: The best match between prediction and measurements was obtained for upper body parts such as shoulders (Ratio Modelled/Measured; Mean = 1.21, SD = 0.34) and neck (Mean = 0.81, SD = 0.32). Small curved body parts such as forehead (Mean = 6.48, SD = 9.61) exhibited a lower matching. The prediction is less accurate for complex postures such as kneeling (Mean = 4.13, SD = 8.38) compared to standing up (Mean = 0.85, SD = 0.48). The values obtained from the dosimeters and the ones computed from the model are globally consistent. Conclusion: Although further development and validation are required, these results suggest that effective exposure could be predicted for a given activity (work or leisure) in various ambient irradiation conditions. Using a generic modelling approach is of high interest in terms of implementation costs as well as predictive and retrospective capabilities.
Resumo:
Sackung is a widespread post-glacial morphological feature affecting Alpine mountains and creating characteristic geomorphological expression that can be detected from topography. Over long time evolution, internal deformation can lead to the formation of rapidly moving phenomena such as a rock-slide or rock avalanche. In this study, a detailed description of the Sierre rock-avalanche (SW Switzerland) is presented. This convex-shaped postglacial instability is one of the larger rock-avalanche in the Alps, involving more than 1.5 billion m3 with a run-out distance of about 14 km and extremely low Fahrböschung angle. This study presents comprehensive analyses of the structural and geological characteristics leading to the development of the Sierre rock-avalanche. In particular, by combining field observations, digital elevation model analyses and numerical modelling, the strong influence of both ductile and brittle tectonic structures on the failure mechanism and on the failure surface geometry is highlighted. The detection of pre-failure deformation indicates that the development of the rock avalanche corresponds to the last evolutionary stage of a pre-existing deep seated gravitational slope instability. These analyses accompanied by the dating and the characterization of rock avalanche deposits, allow the proposal of a destabilization model that clarifies the different phases leading to the development of the Sierre rock avalanche.
Resumo:
An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.