Stress correlation function evolution in lattice solid elasto-dynamic models of shear and fracture zones and earthquake prediction

It has been argued that power-law time-to-failure fits for cumulative Benioff strain and an evolution in size-frequency statistics in the lead-up to large earthquakes are evidence that the crust behaves as a Critical Point (CP) system. If so, intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible. However, this hypothesis has not been proven. If the crust does behave as a CP system, stress correlation lengths should grow in the lead-up to large events through the action of small to moderate ruptures and drop sharply once a large event occurs. However this evolution in stress correlation lengths cannot be observed directly. Here we show, using the lattice solid model to describe discontinuous elasto-dynamic systems subjected to shear and compression, that it is for possible correlation lengths to exhibit CP-type evolution. In the case of a granular system subjected to shear, this evolution occurs in the lead-up to the largest event and is accompanied by an increasing rate of moderate-sized events and power-law acceleration of Benioff strain release. In the case of an intact sample system subjected to compression, the evolution occurs only after a mature fracture system has developed. The results support the existence of a physical mechanism for intermediate-term earthquake forecasting and suggest this mechanism is fault-system dependent. This offers an explanation of why accelerating Benioff strain release is not observed prior to all large earthquakes. The results prove the existence of an underlying evolution in discontinuous elasto-dynamic, systems which is capable of providing a basis for forecasting catastrophic failure and earthquakes.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Effects of BDF 9198 on left ventricular contractility in advanced spontaneously hypertensive rats with heart failure

In the first part of this study, we characterized 24-month-old Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats and spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs), their heart weights, and the responses of the isolated left ventricles to electrical stimulation. In the main part of the study, we tested whether the positive inotropic effects of BDF 9198, which prevents the closure of the cardiac sodium channel, were present in senescence and heart failure. Thus, we studied the effects of BDF 9198 on the left ventricle strips of 24-month-old WKY rats (senescence) and SHRs using contractility methods. In comparison with WKY rats, the left ventricles of 24-month-old SHRs were hypertrophied and had prolonged times to peak contraction. BDF 9198 (10(-8) to 10(-6) m) was a positive inotrope on the left ventricles of WKY rats, with a maximum augmenting effect of 122% with BDF 9198 at 10(-7) m. The magnitude of the augmenting effects of BDF 9198 were reduced in SHR heart failure, with a maximum augmenting effect of 26% at 10(-7) m. BDF 9198 at 10(-6) m attenuated the responses of the SHR left ventricle to electrical stimulation. In conclusion, the potential of drugs that prevent closure of the sodium channel as positive inotropes in the treatment of heart failure should be further considered.

Effects of dofetilide on cardiovascular tissues from normo- and hypertensive rats

The aim was to test whether dofetilide has some potential for use in the treatment of heart failure. Dofetilide at less than or equal to 3 x 10(-5) m had no effect on the quiescent Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rat aorta, mesenteric and intralobar arteries, or the spontaneous contractions of the WKY rat portal vein. Dofetilide at 10(-6) to 3 x 10(-5) m relaxed the KCl-contracted aorta. Dofetilide at 10(-9)-10(-7) m augmented the force of contraction of left ventricle strips from 12- and 18-month-old WKY rats at 2 Hz. Spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs) at 12 and 17-21 months of age are models of cardiac hypertrophy and failure, respectively. The augmentation of force at 2 Hz with dofetilide was similar on 12- and 18-month-old WKY rats and 12-month-old SHRs but reduced on the 18-month-old SHR left ventricle. At a higher more physiological frequency, 4 Hz, the threshold concentration of dofetilide required to augment the force responses of 21-month-old SHR left ventricles was markedly increased and the maximum augmenting effect was decreased. Dofetilide at 10(-7)-10(-5) m reduced the rate of the 17-month-old WKY rat right atrium, and had a similar effect on age-matched SHR right atrium. In summary, dofetilide is a positive inotrope and negative chronotrope in the rat. However, as the positive inotropic effect is not observed with clinically relevant concentrations at a physiological rate in heart failure, dofetilide is unlikely to be useful as a positive inotrope in the treatment of heart failure.

Present and future pharacotherapy for heart failure

The pharmacotherapy currently recommended by the American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association for heart failure (HF) is a diuretic, an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI), a β-adrenoceptor antagonist and (usually) digitalis. This current treatment of HF may be improved by optimising the dose of ACEI used, as increasing the dose of lisinopril increases its benefits in HF. Selective angiotensin receptor-1 (AT1) antagonists are effective alternatives for those who cannot tolerate ACEIs. AT1 antagonists may also be used in combination with ACEIs, as some studies have shown cumulative benefits for the combination. In addition to being used in Stage IV HF patients, in whom it has a marked benefit, spironolactone should be studied in less severe HF and in the presence of β-blockers. The use of carvedilol, extended-release metoprolol and bisoprolol should be extended to severe HF patients as these agents have been shown to decrease mortality in this group. The ancillary properties of carvedilol, particularly antagonism at prejunctional β-adrenoceptors, may give it additional benefits to selective β1-adrenoceptor antagonists. Celiprolol and bucindolol are not the β-blockers of choice in HF, as they do not decrease mortality. Although digitalis does not reduce mortality, it remains the only option for a long-term positive inotropic effect, as the long-term use of the phosphodiesterase inhibitors is associated with increased mortality. The calcium sensitising drug levosimendan may be useful in the hospital treatment of decompensated HF to increase cardiac output and improve dyspnoea and fatigue. The antiarrhythmic drug amiodarone should probably be used in patients at high risk of arrhythmic or sudden death, although this treatment may soon be superseded by the more expensive implanted cardioverter defibrillators, which are probably more effective and have fewer side effects. The natriuretic peptide nesiritide has recently been introduced for the hospital treatment of decompensated HF. Novel drugs that may be beneficial in the treatment of HF include the vasopeptidase inhibitors and the selective endothelin-A receptor antagonists but these require much more investigation. However, disappointing results have been obtained in a large clinical trial of the tumour necrosis factor α antagonist etanercept, where no likelihood of a difference between placebo and etanercept was observed. Small clinical trials with recombinant growth hormone to thicken ventricles in dilated cardiomyopathy have given variable results.

Surgical programme at Royal Alexandra Hospital, Sydney, for Papua New Guinea children with congenital heart disease, 1978-1994

Objective : To report the history of the Royal Alexandra Hospital for Children (RAHC) Papua New Guinea (PNG) cardiac surgical programme and describe the selection, preoperative clinical features and postoperative outcome of children with congenital heart disease managed by the programme. Methods : Details for each of the PNG cardiac patients admitted to RAHC following selection by visiting cardiologists between 1978 and 1994 were entered into a database, and analysed and interpreted. Results : A congenital heart defect was confirmed in 165 of the 170 children selected. The male to female ratio was 1:1 and the mean age on admission to RAHC was 5.5 years. Almost all of the children for whom data were available (98%) had a weight for age and 41% had a height for age less than the 3rd centile. One-sixth had delayed milestones. A large number were tachypnoeic, in heart failure, or had pulmonary hypertension on admission. Ventricular septal defect and tetralogy of Fallot were the commonest defects, and lesions such as aortic stenosis, coarctation of the aorta and transposition of the great arteries were absent or rare. Thirty-one (19%) of the children selected initially did not receive surgery because of pulmonary hypertension, or because the lesions did not fall within the programme guidelines for operation. One hundred and twenty-nine children had corrective and four had palliative procedures. Half of the operated children had postoperative complications. Eight children died, all following open-heart procedures, giving a case fatality rate of 6%. Preoperative tachypnoea, hepatomegaly, cardiac failure and pulmonary hypertension were strongly associated with poor outcome. Conclusions : The programme was an arduous exercise for all organizations concerned, but achieved comparatively good short-term outcomes. The experience gained should assist in planning for similar programmes.

Exchange rate sensitivity of Australian international equity funds

This paper analyses the exchange rate exposure displayed by a sample of Australian international equity trusts (IET). Exchange rate exposure is also examined in the context of differing economic climates with particular emphasis on the Asian crisis in mid-1997. It is found that there is evidence of exchange rate exposure particularly in the context of a multiple exchange rate model. Exposure varies substantially between three alternative time periods with different exposure apparent subsequent to the Asian crisis than prior to this event.

The effect of heat transfer mode on heart rate responses and hysteresis during heating and cooling in the estuarine crocodile Crocodylus porosus

The effect of heating and cooling on heart rate in the estuarine crocodile Crocodylus porosus was studied in response to different heat transfer mechanisms and heat loads. Three heating treatments were investigated. C. porosus were: (1) exposed to a radiant heat source under dry conditions; (2) heated via radiant energy while half-submerged in flowing water at 23degreesC and (3) heated via convective transfer by increasing water temperature from 23degreesC to 35degreesC. Cooling was achieved in all treatments by removing the heat source and with C. porosus half-submerged in flowing water at 23degreesC. In all treatments, the heart rate of C. porosus increased markedly in response to heating and decreased rapidly with the removal of the heat source. Heart rate during heating was significantly faster than during cooling at any given body temperature, i.e. there was a significant heart rate hysteresis. There were two identifiable responses to heating and cooling. During the initial stages of applying or removing the heat source, there was a dramatic increase or decrease in heart rate ('rapid response'), respectively, indicating a possible cardiac reflex. This rapid change in heart rate with only a small change or no change in body temperature (

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

The role of gender in reactions to service failure and recovery

Male and female consumers place different emphasis on elements of the service recovery process. Perceptions were influenced by gender of the service provider and by a match of customer and service provider gender. The study, an experimental design with 712 respondents, found that when service providers, irrespective of gender, display concern and give customers voice and a sizable compensation, both men and women reported more positive attitudes compared with when this was not so. Combinations of high voice with high outcome and high voice with high concern were especially important in positively influencing perceptions of effort, regardless of gender. However, the authors also found that there were significant differences between male and female respondents regarding their perceptions of how service recovery should be handled. Women want their views heard during service recovery attempts and to be allowed to provide input. Men, in contrast, do not view voice as important.

In vivo and in vitro models demonstrate a role for caveolin-1 in the pathogenesis of ischaemic acute renal failure

Caveolae and their proteins, the caveolins, transport macromolecules; compartmentalize signalling molecules; and are involved in various repair processes. There is little information regarding their role in the pathogenesis of significant renal syndromes such as acute renal failure (ARF). In this study, an in vivo rat model of 30 min bilateral renal ischaemia followed by reperfusion times from 4 h to 1 week was used to map the temporal and spatial association between caveolin-1 and tubular epithelial damage (desquamation, apoptosis, necrosis). An in vitro model of ischaemic ARF was also studied, where cultured renal tubular epithelial cells or arterial endothelial cells were subjected to injury initiators modelled on ischaemia-reperfusion (hypoxia, serum deprivation, free radical damage or hypoxia-hyperoxia). Expression of caveolin proteins was investigated using immunohistochemistry, immunoelectron microscopy, and immunoblots of whole cell, membrane or cytosol protein extracts. In vivo, healthy kidney had abundant caveolin-1 in vascular endothelial cells and also some expression in membrane surfaces of distal tubular epithelium. In the kidneys of ARF animals, punctate cytoplasmic localization of caveolin-1 was identified, with high intensity expression in injured proximal tubules that were losing basement membrane adhesion or were apoptotic, 24 h to 4 days after ischaemia-reperfusion. Western immunoblots indicated a marked increase in caveolin-1 expression in the cortex where some proximal tubular injury was located. In vitro, the main treatment-induced change in both cell types was translocation of caveolin-1 from the original plasma membrane site into membrane-associated sites in the cytoplasm. Overall, expression levels did not alter for whole cell extracts and the protein remained membrane-bound, as indicated by cell fractionation analyses. Caveolin-1 was also found to localize intensely within apoptotic cells. The results are indicative of a role for caveolin-1 in ARF-induced renal injury. Whether it functions for cell repair or death remains to be elucidated. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.