Non-zero mean Gaussian process prior wind field models

This report outlines the derivation and application of a non-zero mean, polynomial-exponential covariance function based Gaussian process which forms the prior wind field model used in 'autonomous' disambiguation. It is principally used since the non-zero mean permits the computation of realistic local wind vector prior probabilities which are required when applying the scaled-likelihood trick, as the marginals of the full wind field prior. As the full prior is multi-variate normal, these marginals are very simple to compute.

Adding constrained discontinuities to Gaussian process models of wind fields

Gaussian Processes provide good prior models for spatial data, but can be too smooth. In many physical situations there are discontinuities along bounding surfaces, for example fronts in near-surface wind fields. We describe a modelling method for such a constrained discontinuity and demonstrate how to infer the model parameters in wind fields with MCMC sampling.

Sparse representation for Gaussian process models

We develop an approach for a sparse representation for Gaussian Process (GP) models in order to overcome the limitations of GPs caused by large data sets. The method is based on a combination of a Bayesian online algorithm together with a sequential construction of a relevant subsample of the data which fully specifies the prediction of the model. Experimental results on toy examples and large real-world datasets indicate the efficiency of the approach.

General bounds on Bayes errors for regression with Gaussian processes

Based on a simple convexity lemma, we develop bounds for different types of Bayesian prediction errors for regression with Gaussian processes. The basic bounds are formulated for a fixed training set. Simpler expressions are obtained for sampling from an input distribution which equals the weight function of the covariance kernel, yielding asymptotically tight results. The results are compared with numerical experiments.

Mean field methods for classification with Gaussian processes

We discuss the Application of TAP mean field methods known from Statistical Mechanics of disordered systems to Bayesian classification with Gaussian processes. In contrast to previous applications, no knowledge about the distribution of inputs is needed. Simulation results for the Sonar data set are given.

Gaussian processes for classification: mean field algorithms:mean-field algorithms

We derive a mean field algorithm for binary classification with Gaussian processes which is based on the TAP approach originally proposed in Statistical Physics of disordered systems. The theory also yields an approximate leave-one-out estimator for the generalization error which is computed with no extra computational cost. We show that from the TAP approach, it is possible to derive both a simpler 'naive' mean field theory and support vector machines (SVM) as limiting cases. For both mean field algorithms and support vectors machines, simulation results for three small benchmark data sets are presented. They show 1. that one may get state of the art performance by using the leave-one-out estimator for model selection and 2. the built-in leave-one-out estimators are extremely precise when compared to the exact leave-one-out estimate. The latter result is a taken as a strong support for the internal consistency of the mean field approach.

Gaussian processes and SVM: Mean field results and leave-one-out

In this chapter, we elaborate on the well-known relationship between Gaussian processes (GP) and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Secondly, we present approximate solutions for two computational problems arising in GP and SVM. The first one is the calculation of the posterior mean for GP classifiers using a `naive' mean field approach. The second one is a leave-one-out estimator for the generalization error of SVM based on a linear response method. Simulation results on a benchmark dataset show similar performances for the GP mean field algorithm and the SVM algorithm. The approximate leave-one-out estimator is found to be in very good agreement with the exact leave-one-out error.

Sparse on-line Gaussian processes

We develop an approach for sparse representations of Gaussian Process (GP) models (which are Bayesian types of kernel machines) in order to overcome their limitations for large data sets. The method is based on a combination of a Bayesian online algorithm together with a sequential construction of a relevant subsample of the data which fully specifies the prediction of the GP model. By using an appealing parametrisation and projection techniques that use the RKHS norm, recursions for the effective parameters and a sparse Gaussian approximation of the posterior process are obtained. This allows both for a propagation of predictions as well as of Bayesian error measures. The significance and robustness of our approach is demonstrated on a variety of experiments.

Learning curves for Gaussian processes models: fluctuations and universality

Based on a statistical mechanics approach, we develop a method for approximately computing average case learning curves and their sample fluctuations for Gaussian process regression models. We give examples for the Wiener process and show that universal relations (that are independent of the input distribution) between error measures can be derived.

Gaussian processes:iterative sparse approximations

In recent years there has been an increased interest in applying non-parametric methods to real-world problems. Significant research has been devoted to Gaussian processes (GPs) due to their increased flexibility when compared with parametric models. These methods use Bayesian learning, which generally leads to analytically intractable posteriors. This thesis proposes a two-step solution to construct a probabilistic approximation to the posterior. In the first step we adapt the Bayesian online learning to GPs: the final approximation to the posterior is the result of propagating the first and second moments of intermediate posteriors obtained by combining a new example with the previous approximation. The propagation of em functional forms is solved by showing the existence of a parametrisation to posterior moments that uses combinations of the kernel function at the training points, transforming the Bayesian online learning of functions into a parametric formulation. The drawback is the prohibitive quadratic scaling of the number of parameters with the size of the data, making the method inapplicable to large datasets. The second step solves the problem of the exploding parameter size and makes GPs applicable to arbitrarily large datasets. The approximation is based on a measure of distance between two GPs, the KL-divergence between GPs. This second approximation is with a constrained GP in which only a small subset of the whole training dataset is used to represent the GP. This subset is called the em Basis Vector, or BV set and the resulting GP is a sparse approximation to the true posterior. As this sparsity is based on the KL-minimisation, it is probabilistic and independent of the way the posterior approximation from the first step is obtained. We combine the sparse approximation with an extension to the Bayesian online algorithm that allows multiple iterations for each input and thus approximating a batch solution. The resulting sparse learning algorithm is a generic one: for different problems we only change the likelihood. The algorithm is applied to a variety of problems and we examine its performance both on more classical regression and classification tasks and to the data-assimilation and a simple density estimation problems.

Magnetization enumerator for real-valued symmetric channels in Gallager error-correcting codes

Using the magnetization enumerator method, we evaluate the practical and theoretical limitations of symmetric channels with real outputs. Results are presented for several regular Gallager code constructions.

A new entropy measure based on the Renyi entropy rate using Gaussian kernels

The concept of entropy rate is well defined in dynamical systems theory but is impossible to apply it directly to finite real world data sets. With this in mind, Pincus developed Approximate Entropy (ApEn), which uses ideas from Eckmann and Ruelle to create a regularity measure based on entropy rate that can be used to determine the influence of chaotic behaviour in a real world signal. However, this measure was found not to be robust and so an improved formulation known as the Sample Entropy (SampEn) was created by Richman and Moorman to address these issues. We have developed a new, related, regularity measure which is not based on the theory provided by Eckmann and Ruelle and proves a more well-behaved measure of complexity than the previous measures whilst still retaining a low computational cost.

Derivations of variational gaussian process approximation framework

Recently, within the VISDEM project (EPSRC funded EP/C005848/1), a novel variational approximation framework has been developed for inference in partially observed, continuous space-time, diffusion processes. In this technical report all the derivations of the variational framework, from the initial work, are provided in detail to help the reader better understand the framework and its assumptions.

Statistical mechanics of broadcast channels using low-density parity-check codes

We investigate the use of Gallager's low-density parity-check (LDPC) codes in a degraded broadcast channel, one of the fundamental models in network information theory. Combining linear codes is a standard technique in practical network communication schemes and is known to provide better performance than simple time sharing methods when algebraic codes are used. The statistical physics based analysis shows that the practical performance of the suggested method, achieved by employing the belief propagation algorithm, is superior to that of LDPC based time sharing codes while the best performance, when received transmissions are optimally decoded, is bounded by the time sharing limit.

When electronic management tools work - and don't work - in social-based distribution channels:a study of IT manufacturers and resellers

Electronic information tools have become increasingly popular with channel manufacturers in their efforts to manage resellers. Although these tools have been found to increase the efficiency of communications, researchers and practitioners alike have questioned their effectiveness. To investigate how top-down electronic information affects social channel relationships we consider the use of such tools in information technology distribution channels. Using electronic communications theory and channel governance theory we hypothesize that the usefulness of the tools is a function of the type of information inherent in each tool (demand creation information or supply fulfillment information) and the particular communications characteristics of this information.