Decision theory to support evacuation in advance of catastrophic disaster including modular influence diagrams and spatial data analysis.

DUE TO INCOMPLETE PAPERWORK, ONLY AVAILABLE FOR CONSULTATION AT ASTON UNIVERSITY LIBRARY AND INFORMATION SERVICES WITH PRIOR ARRANGEMENT

Analysis of Spatial-temporal Dynamics in the System of Economic Security of Different Subjects of Economic Management

The importance to solve the problem of spatial-temporal dynamics analysis in the system of economic security of different subjects of economic management is substantiated. Various methods and approaches for carrying out analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in the system of economic security are considered. The basis of the generalized analysis of spatial-temporal dynamics in economic systems is offered.

A Bayesian Spatial Mixture Model for FMRI Analysis

We develop, implement and study a new Bayesian spatial mixture model (BSMM). The proposed BSMM allows for spatial structure in the binary activation indicators through a latent thresholded Gaussian Markov random field. We develop a Gibbs (MCMC) sampler to perform posterior inference on the model parameters, which then allows us to assess the posterior probabilities of activation for each voxel. One purpose of this article is to compare the HJ model and the BSMM in terms of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves. Also we consider the accuracy of the spatial mixture model and the BSMM for estimation of the size of the activation region in terms of bias, variance and mean squared error. We perform a simulation study to examine the aforementioned characteristics under a variety of configurations of spatial mixture model and BSMM both as the size of the region changes and as the magnitude of activation changes.

A spatial pattern analysis of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposition in the temporal lobe in Alzheimer's disease

To determine the factors influencing the distribution of β-amyloid (Aβ) deposits in Alzheimer's disease (AD), the spatial patterns of the diffuse, primitive, and classic Aβ deposits were studied from the superior temporal gyrus (STG) to sector CA4 of the hippocampus in six sporadic cases of the disease. In cortical gyri and in the CA sectors of the hippocampus, the Aβ deposits were distributed either in clusters 200-6400 μm in diameter that were regularly distributed parallel to the tissue boundary or in larger clusters greater than 6400 μm in diameter. In some regions, smaller clusters of Aβ deposits were aggregated into larger 'superclusters'. In many cortical gyri, the density of Aβ deposits was positively correlated with distance below the gyral crest. In the majority of regions, clusters of the diffuse, primitive, and classic deposits were not spatially correlated with each other. In two cases, double immunolabelled to reveal the Aβ deposits and blood vessels, the classic Aβ deposits were clustered around the larger diameter vessels. These results suggest a complex pattern of Aβ deposition in the temporal lobe in sporadic AD. A regular distribution of Aβ deposit clusters may reflect the degeneration of specific cortico-cortical and cortico-hippocampal pathways and the influence of the cerebral blood vessels. Large-scale clustering may reflect the aggregation of deposits in the depths of the sulci and the coalescence of smaller clusters.

Population structure of spotted sunfish (Lepomis punctatus) in the Florida Everglades as revealed by DNA microsatellite analysis

Genetic diversity can be used to describe patterns of gene flow within and between local and regional populations. The Florida Everglades experiences seasonal fluctuations in water level that can influence local population extinction and recolonization dynamics. In addition, this expansive wetland has been divided into water management regions by canals and levees. These combined factors can affect genetic diversity and population structure of aquatic organisms in the Everglades. We analyzed allelic variation at six DNA microsatellite loci to examine the population structure of spotted sunfish (Lepomis punctatus) from the Everglades. We tested the hypothesis that recurrent local extinction and recent regional divisions have had an effect on patterns of genetic diversity. No marked differences were observed in comparisons of the heterozygosity values of sites within and among water management units. No evidence of isolation by distance was detected in a gene flow and distance correlation between subpopulations. Confidence intervals for the estimated F-statistic values crossed zero, indicating that there was no significant genetic difference between subpopulations within a region or between regions. Notably, the genetic variation among subpopulations in a water conservation area was greater than variation among regions (Fsp>FPT). These data indicate that the spatial scale of recolonization following local extinction appears to be most important within water management units.

A spatial-temporal analysis of section 404 wetland permitting in Texas and Florida: Thirteen years of impact along the coast

Over the past 200 years, an estimated 53% (about 47 million ha) of the original wetlands in the conterminous United States have been lost, mainly as a result of various human activities. Despite the importance of wetlands (particularly along the coast), and a longstanding federal policy framework meant to protect their integrity, the cumulative impact on these natural systems over large areas is poorly understood. We address this lack of research by mapping and conducting descriptive spatial analyses of federal wetland alteration permits (pursuant to section 404 of the Clean Water Act) across 85 watersheds in Florida and coastal Texas from 1991 to 2003. Results show that more than half of the permits issued in both states (60%) fell under the Nationwide permitting category. Permits issued in Texas were typically located outside of urban areas (78%) and outside 100-year floodplains (61%). More than half of permits issued in Florida were within urban areas (57%) and outside of 100-year floodplains (51%). The most affected wetlands types were estuarine in Texas (47%) and palustrine in Florida (55%). We expect that an additional outcome of this work will be an increased awareness of the cumulative depletion of wetlands and loss of ecological services in these urbanized areas, perhaps leading to increased conservation efforts.

A preliminary analysis of the correlation of food-web characteristics with hydrology and nutrient gradients in the southern Everglades

We estimated trophic position and carbon source for three consumers (Florida gar, Lepisosteus platyrhincus; eastern mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki; and riverine grass shrimp, Palaemonetes paludosus) from 20 sites representing gradients of productivity and hydrological disturbance in the southern Florida Everglades, U.S.A. We characterized gross primary productivity at each site using light/dark bottle incubation and stem density of emergent vascular plants. We also documented nutrient availability as total phosphorus (TP) in floc and periphyton, and the density of small fishes. Hydrological disturbance was characterized as the time since a site was last dried and the average number of days per year the sites were inundated for the previous 10 years. Food-web attributes were estimated in both the wet and dry seasons by analysis of δ15N (trophic position) and δ13C (food-web carbon source) from 702 samples of aquatic consumers. An index of carbon source was derived from a two-member mixing model with Seminole ramshorn snails (Planorbella duryi) as a basal grazing consumer and scuds (amphipods Hyallela azteca) as a basal detritivore. Snails yielded carbon isotopic values similar to green algae and diatoms, while carbon values of scuds were similar to bulk periphyton and floc; carbon isotopic values of cyanobacteria were enriched in C13compared to all consumers examined. A carbon source similar to scuds dominated at all but one study site, and though the relative contribution of scud-like and snail-like carbon sources was variable, there was no evidence that these contributions were a function of abiotic factors or season. Gar consistently displayed the highest estimated trophic position of the consumers studied, with mosquitofish feeding at a slightly lower level, and grass shrimp feeding at the lowest level. Trophic position was not correlated with any nutrient or productivity parameter, but did increase for grass shrimp and mosquitofish as the time following droughts increased. Trophic position of Florida gar was positively correlated with emergent plant stem density.

Coral reef habitat maps derived from a high-spatial-resolution multi-spectral satellite image using object based image analysis

Coral reef maps at various spatial scales and extents are needed for mapping, monitoring, modelling, and management of these environments. High spatial resolution satellite imagery, pixel <10 m, integrated with field survey data and processed with various mapping approaches, can provide these maps. These approaches have been accurately applied to single reefs (10-100 km**2), covering one high spatial resolution scene from which a single thematic layer (e.g. benthic community) is mapped. This article demonstrates how a hierarchical mapping approach can be applied to coral reefs from individual reef to reef-system scales (10-1000 km**2) using object-based image classification of high spatial resolution images guided by ecological and geomorphological principles. The approach is demonstrated for three individual reefs (10-35 km**2) in Australia, Fiji, and Palau; and for three complex reef systems (300-600 km**2) one in the Solomon Islands and two in Fiji. Archived high spatial resolution images were pre-processed and mosaics were created for the reef systems. Georeferenced benthic photo transect surveys were used to acquire cover information. Field and image data were integrated using an object-based image analysis approach that resulted in a hierarchically structured classification. Objects were assigned class labels based on the dominant benthic cover type, or location-relevant ecological and geomorphological principles, or a combination thereof. This generated a hierarchical sequence of reef maps with an increasing complexity in benthic thematic information that included: 'reef', 'reef type', 'geomorphic zone', and 'benthic community'. The overall accuracy of the 'geomorphic zone' classification for each of the six study sites was 76-82% using 6-10 mapping categories. For 'benthic community' classification, the overall accuracy was 52-75% with individual reefs having 14-17 categories and reef systems 20-30 categories. We show that an object-based classification of high spatial resolution imagery, guided by field data and ecological and geomorphological principles, can produce consistent, accurate benthic maps at four hierarchical spatial scales for coral reefs of various sizes and complexities.

Georeferenced standardized apparent wave power along the coastline of Cabrera National Park for analysis of essential habitats of littoral species

Wind- induced exposure is one of the major forces shaping the geomorphology and biota in coastal areas. The effect of wave exposure on littoral biota is well known in marine environments (Ekebon et al., 2003; Burrows et al., 2008). In the Cabrera Archipelago National Park wave exposure has demostrated to have an effect on the spatial distribution of different stages of E.marginatus (Alvarez et al., 2010). Standarized average wave exposures during 2008 along the Cabrera Archipelago National park coast line were calculated to be applied in studies of littoral species distribution within the archipelago. Average wave exposure (or apparent wave power) was calculated for points located 50 m equidistant on the coastline following the EXA methodology (EXposure estimates for fragmented Archipelagos) (Ekebon et al., 2003). The average wave exposures were standardized from 1 to 100 (minimum and maximum in the area), showing coastal areas with different levels of mea wave exposure during the year. Input wind data (direction and intensity) from 2008 was registered at the Cabrera mooring located north of Cabrera Archipelago. Data were provided by IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB, TMMOS http://www.imedea.uib-csic.es/tmoos/boyas/). This cartography has been developed under the framework of the project EPIMHAR, funded by the National Park's Network (Spanish Ministry of Environment, Maritime and Rural Affairs, reference: 012/2007 ). Part of this work has been developed under the research programs funded by "Fons de Garantia Agrària i Pesquera de les Illes Balears (FOGAIBA)".

Dynamics of spatial heterogeneity in a landfill with interacting phase densities:a stochastic analysis

A landfill represents a complex and dynamically evolving structure that can be stochastically perturbed by exogenous factors. Both thermodynamic (equilibrium) and time varying (non-steady state) properties of a landfill are affected by spatially heterogenous and nonlinear subprocesses that combine with constraining initial and boundary conditions arising from the associated surroundings. While multiple approaches have been made to model landfill statistics by incorporating spatially dependent parameters on the one hand (data based approach) and continuum dynamical mass-balance equations on the other (equation based modelling), practically no attempt has been made to amalgamate these two approaches while also incorporating inherent stochastically induced fluctuations affecting the process overall. In this article, we will implement a minimalist scheme of modelling the time evolution of a realistic three dimensional landfill through a reaction-diffusion based approach, focusing on the coupled interactions of four key variables - solid mass density, hydrolysed mass density, acetogenic mass density and methanogenic mass density, that themselves are stochastically affected by fluctuations, coupled with diffusive relaxation of the individual densities, in ambient surroundings. Our results indicate that close to the linearly stable limit, the large time steady state properties, arising out of a series of complex coupled interactions between the stochastically driven variables, are scarcely affected by the biochemical growth-decay statistics. Our results clearly show that an equilibrium landfill structure is primarily determined by the solid and hydrolysed mass densities only rendering the other variables as statistically "irrelevant" in this (large time) asymptotic limit. The other major implication of incorporation of stochasticity in the landfill evolution dynamics is in the hugely reduced production times of the plants that are now approximately 20-30 years instead of the previous deterministic model predictions of 50 years and above. The predictions from this stochastic model are in conformity with available experimental observations.

Evaluating the spatial transferability and temporal repeatability of remote-sensing-based lake water quality retrieval algorithms at the European scale: a meta-analysis approach

Many studies have shown the considerable potential for the application of remote-sensing-based methods for deriving estimates of lake water quality. However, the reliable application of these methods across time and space is complicated by the diversity of lake types, sensor configuration, and the multitude of different algorithms proposed. This study tested one operational and 46 empirical algorithms sourced from the peer-reviewed literature that have individually shown potential for estimating lake water quality properties in the form of chlorophyll-a (algal biomass) and Secchi disc depth (SDD) (water transparency) in independent studies. Nearly half (19) of the algorithms were unsuitable for use with the remote-sensing data available for this study. The remaining 28 were assessed using the Terra/Aqua satellite archive to identify the best performing algorithms in terms of accuracy and transferability within the period 2001–2004 in four test lakes, namely Vänern, Vättern, Geneva, and Balaton. These lakes represent the broad continuum of large European lake types, varying in terms of eco-region (latitude/longitude and altitude), morphology, mixing regime, and trophic status. All algorithms were tested for each lake separately and combined to assess the degree of their applicability in ecologically different sites. None of the algorithms assessed in this study exhibited promise when all four lakes were combined into a single data set and most algorithms performed poorly even for specific lake types. A chlorophyll-a retrieval algorithm originally developed for eutrophic lakes showed the most promising results (R2 = 0.59) in oligotrophic lakes. Two SDD retrieval algorithms, one originally developed for turbid lakes and the other for lakes with various characteristics, exhibited promising results in relatively less turbid lakes (R2 = 0.62 and 0.76, respectively). The results presented here highlight the complexity associated with remotely sensed lake water quality estimates and the high degree of uncertainty due to various limitations, including the lake water optical properties and the choice of methods.

RELIBILITY ANALYSIS OF SIMPLE SLOPES AND SOIL-STRUCTURES WITH LINEAR LIMIT STATES

The first objective of this research was to develop closed-form and numerical probabilistic methods of analysis that can be applied to otherwise conventional methods of unreinforced and geosynthetic reinforced slopes and walls. These probabilistic methods explicitly include random variability of soil and reinforcement, spatial variability of the soil, and cross-correlation between soil input parameters on probability of failure. The quantitative impact of simultaneously considering the influence of random and/or spatial variability in soil properties in combination with cross-correlation in soil properties is investigated for the first time in the research literature. Depending on the magnitude of these statistical descriptors, margins of safety based on conventional notions of safety may be very different from margins of safety expressed in terms of probability of failure (or reliability index). The thesis work also shows that intuitive notions of margin of safety using conventional factor of safety and probability of failure can be brought into alignment when cross-correlation between soil properties is considered in a rigorous manner. The second objective of this thesis work was to develop a general closed-form solution to compute the true probability of failure (or reliability index) of a simple linear limit state function with one load term and one resistance term expressed first in general probabilistic terms and then migrated to a LRFD format for the purpose of LRFD calibration. The formulation considers contributions to probability of failure due to model type, uncertainty in bias values, bias dependencies, uncertainty in estimates of nominal values for correlated and uncorrelated load and resistance terms, and average margin of safety expressed as the operational factor of safety (OFS). Bias is defined as the ratio of measured to predicted value. Parametric analyses were carried out to show that ignoring possible correlations between random variables can lead to conservative (safe) values of resistance factor in some cases and in other cases to non-conservative (unsafe) values. Example LRFD calibrations were carried out using different load and resistance models for the pullout internal stability limit state of steel strip and geosynthetic reinforced soil walls together with matching bias data reported in the literature.

Statistical Analysis of Wind Power Generation in Europe

Studies have shown that large geographical spreading can reduce the wind power variability and smooth production. It is frequently assumed that storage and interconnection can manage wind power variability and are totally flexible. However, constraints do exist. In the future more and more electricity will be provided by renewable energy sources and more electricity interconnectors will be built between European Union (EU) countries, as outlines in many of the Projects of Common Interests. It is essential to understand the correlation of wind generation throughout Europe considering power system constraints. In this study the spatial and temporal correlation of wind power production across several countries is examined in order to understand how “the wind ‘travels’ across Europe”. Three years of historical hourly wind power generation from ten EU countries is analysed to investigate the geographic diversity and time scales influence on correlation of wind power variations. Results are then compared with two other studies and show similar general characteristics of correlation between EU country pairs to identify opportunities for storage optimisation, power system operations, and trading.

Energy efficiency in the Chinese provinces: a fixed effects stochastic frontier spatial Durbin error panel analysis

Energy efficiency improvement has been a key objective of China’s long-term energy policy. In this paper, we derive single-factor technical energy efficiency (abbreviated as energy efficiency) in China from multi-factor efficiency estimated by means of a translog production function and a stochastic frontier model on the basis of panel data on 29 Chinese provinces over the period 2003–2011. We find that average energy efficiency has been increasing over the research period and that the provinces with the highest energy efficiency are at the east coast and the ones with the lowest in the west, with an intermediate corridor in between. In the analysis of the determinants of energy efficiency by means of a spatial Durbin error model both factors in the own province and in first-order neighboring provinces are considered. Per capita income in the own province has a positive effect. Furthermore, foreign direct investment and population density in the own province and in neighboring provinces have positive effects, whereas the share of state-owned enterprises in Gross Provincial Product in the own province and in neighboring provinces has negative effects. From the analysis it follows that inflow of foreign direct investment and reform of state-owned enterprises are important policy handles.