Carbon leakage and the future of Old Industrial Regions

4 p.

Carbon leakage and the future of Old Industrial Regions after Copenhagen

35 p.

Future of earthquake early warning : quantifying uncertainty and making fast automated decisions for applications

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications.

Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake.

To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that can capture the uncertainties in EEW information and the decision process is used. This approach is called the Performance-Based Earthquake Early Warning, which is based on the PEER Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering method. Use of surrogate models is suggested to improve computational efficiency. Also, new models are proposed to add the influence of lead time into the cost-benefit analysis. For example, a value of information model is used to quantify the potential value of delaying the activation of a mitigation action for a possible reduction of the uncertainty of EEW information in the next update. Two practical examples, evacuation alert and elevator control, are studied to illustrate the ePAD framework. Potential advanced EEW applications, such as the case of multiple-action decisions and the synergy of EEW and structural health monitoring systems, are also discussed.

Evaluating Governance and Participatory Processes in Natura 2000: Lessons Learned and Guidance for Future Prospects

23 p.

Advancing EDL technologies for future space missions : from ground testing facilities to ablative heatshields

Motivated by recent MSL results where the ablation rate of the PICA heatshield was over-predicted, and staying true to the objectives outlined in the NASA Space Technology Roadmaps and Priorities report, this work focuses on advancing EDL technologies for future space missions.

Due to the difficulties in performing flight tests in the hypervelocity regime, a new ground testing facility called the vertical expansion tunnel is proposed. The adverse effects from secondary diaphragm rupture in an expansion tunnel may be reduced or eliminated by orienting the tunnel vertically, matching the test gas pressure and the accelerator gas pressure, and initially separating the test gas from the accelerator gas by density stratification. If some sacrifice of the reservoir conditions can be made, the VET can be utilized in hypervelocity ground testing, without the problems associated with secondary diaphragm rupture.

The performance of different constraints for the Rate-Controlled Constrained-Equilibrium (RCCE) method is investigated in the context of modeling reacting flows characteristic to ground testing facilities, and re-entry conditions. The effectiveness of different constraints are isolated, and new constraints previously unmentioned in the literature are introduced. Three main benefits from the RCCE method were determined: 1) the reduction in number of equations that need to be solved to model a reacting flow; 2) the reduction in stiffness of the system of equations needed to be solved; and 3) the ability to tabulate chemical properties as a function of a constraint once, prior to running a simulation, along with the ability to use the same table for multiple simulations.

Finally, published physical properties of PICA are compiled, and the composition of the pyrolysis gases that form at high temperatures internal to a heatshield is investigated. A necessary link between the composition of the solid resin, and the composition of the pyrolysis gases created is provided. This link, combined with a detailed investigation into a reacting pyrolysis gas mixture, allows a much needed consistent, and thorough description of many of the physical phenomena occurring in a PICA heatshield, and their implications, to be presented.

Through the use of computational fluid mechanics and computational chemistry methods, significant contributions have been made to advancing ground testing facilities, computational methods for reacting flows, and ablation modeling.

“Steer-by-wire” software garapena

[EU]Proiektu honek automobilen antzinako direkzio sistemak ordezkatuko dituen steer-by-wire-ren inplementazioa deskribatuko du, software-aren garapena, hain zuzen. Lan hau garatzeko, ezinbestekoa izango da orain arte egindako lanen bilketa eta azterketa egitea, baita nolako zailtasunak, arriskuak egongo diren eta posiblea izango litzatekeen etorkizun batean teknologia hau instalatzea. Programazio, mekanika eta automatika ezagutzaren bidez teknologia berri hau ordenagailu batean simulatuko da eta orain arte erabili izan diren teknologiekin alderatuko dira, ateratako emaitzekin ondorio nabarmenak ezarriz. Programazio eta simulaziorako “Labview” eta “Matlab-Simulink” software-ak erabiliko dira, beharrezkoak diren tresnen ezagutzak aurretik lortuz.

Fluctuations in a tokamak plasma

An experimental investigation of low frequency floating potential fluctuations (f ≤ 200 kHz) in a research tokamak plasma using two spatially separated electrostatic probes has been performed. The spectra, correlation length, and the phase velocity of the fluctuations in both the radial and azimuthal direction have been determined. The propagation velocity in the toroidal direction was also measured and was found to be in the direction of electron current flow. The waves traveled azimuthally in the ion diamagnetic drift direction, even after the usual E x B rotation was taken into account. The electron density fluctuations associated with these oscillations were large, δn/n ≃ 0.35 - 0.50.

The spectra were found to have regularly spaced peaks which seemed to be related to specific azimuthal modes (m =1,2,3,...,etc. ) A parametric study was made to determine what effect plasma parameters had on these peaks. During periods of high electron density in the first 2 msec of the plasma lifetime, strong sawtooth type oscillations were observed. These oscillations typically had frequencies of approximately 10 kHz and were also present when large amounts of neutral gas were added during the discharge by a process called "gas puffing."

The results are compared with experimental observations made on other plasma devices with electric and magnetic probes and with microwave and CO₂ laser scattering techniques. (The scattering measurements are complimentary to the probe measurements since, in the former case, the wavelength is fixed by the scattering angle, but the oscillations could not be spatially localized.) The oscillations in the Caltech torus were probably related to a drift-tearing type instability which is thought to play a major role in the anomalous particle and energy flux observed in tokamaks. Comparisons are made between current theory and the experimental results. However, the theory for the observed oscillations is still in a rudimentary stage of development, and it is hoped that the present investigation will stimulate future analytical work.

Monitoring fish populations in Lower Lough Erne, Northern Ireland: applicability of current methods and implications for future monitoring under the EC Water Framework Directive

The proposed EC Water Framework Directive (WFD) will require member states to monitor both biotic and abiotic components of lake environments. With adoption of the WFD some measurement of fish populations will also be required. This paper describes work carried out since 1971, and particularly since 1991, on the status of fish populations in Lower Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, with an emphasis on defining change over time due to human impacts on the lake. This offers a reasonable starting point from which to develop a monitoring programme suitable for the needs of the WFD in this lake. The implications for as yet unmonitored fish populations in lakes are also determined.

Design of antenna-coupled lumped-element titanium nitride KIDs for long-wavelength multi-band continuum imaging

Many applications in cosmology and astrophysics at millimeter wavelengths including CMB polarization, studies of galaxy clusters using the Sunyaev-Zeldovich effect (SZE), and studies of star formation at high redshift and in our local universe and our galaxy, require large-format arrays of millimeter-wave detectors. Feedhorn and phased-array antenna architectures for receiving mm-wave light present numerous advantages for control of systematics, for simultaneous coverage of both polarizations and/or multiple spectral bands, and for preserving the coherent nature of the incoming light. This enables the application of many traditional "RF" structures such as hybrids, switches, and lumped-element or microstrip band-defining filters.

Simultaneously, kinetic inductance detectors (KIDs) using high-resistivity materials like titanium nitride are an attractive sensor option for large-format arrays because they are highly multiplexable and because they can have sensitivities reaching the condition of background-limited detection. A KID is a LC resonator. Its inductance includes the geometric inductance and kinetic inductance of the inductor in the superconducting phase. A photon absorbed by the superconductor breaks a Cooper pair into normal-state electrons and perturbs its kinetic inductance, rendering it a detector of light. The responsivity of KID is given by the fractional frequency shift of the LC resonator per unit optical power.

However, coupling these types of optical reception elements to KIDs is a challenge because of the impedance mismatch between the microstrip transmission line exiting these architectures and the high resistivity of titanium nitride. Mitigating direct absorption of light through free space coupling to the inductor of KID is another challenge. We present a detailed titanium nitride KID design that addresses these challenges. The KID inductor is capacitively coupled to the microstrip in such a way as to form a lossy termination without creating an impedance mismatch. A parallel plate capacitor design mitigates direct absorption, uses hydrogenated amorphous silicon, and yields acceptable noise. We show that the optimized design can yield expected sensitivities very close to the fundamental limit for a long wavelength imager (LWCam) that covers six spectral bands from 90 to 400 GHz for SZE studies.

Excess phase (frequency) noise has been observed in KID and is very likely caused by two-level systems (TLS) in dielectric materials. The TLS hypothesis is supported by the measured dependence of the noise on resonator internal power and temperature. However, there is still a lack of a unified microscopic theory which can quantitatively model the properties of the TLS noise. In this thesis we derive the noise power spectral density due to the coupling of TLS with phonon bath based on an existing model and compare the theoretical predictions about power and temperature dependences with experimental data. We discuss the limitation of such a model and propose the direction for future study.

Dynamics of the East Asian Summer Monsoon in Present and Future Climates

This thesis aims at enhancing our fundamental understanding of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM), and mechanisms implicated in its climatology in present-day and warmer climates. We focus on the most prominent feature of the EASM, i.e., the so-called Meiyu-Baiu (MB), which is characterized by a well-defined, southwest to northeast elongated quasi-stationary rainfall band, spanning from eastern China to Japan and into the northwestern Pacific Ocean in June and July.

We begin with an observational study of the energetics of the MB front in present-day climate. Analyses of the moist static energy (MSE) budget of the MB front indicate that horizontal advection of moist enthalpy, primarily of dry enthalpy, sustains the front in a region of otherwise negative net energy input into the atmospheric column. A decomposition of the horizontal dry enthalpy advection into mean, transient, and stationary eddy fluxes identifies the longitudinal thermal gradient due to zonal asymmetries and the meridional stationary eddy velocity as the most influential factors determining the pattern of horizontal moist enthalpy advection. Numerical simulations in which the Tibetan Plateau (TP) is either retained or removed show that the TP influences the stationary enthalpy flux, and hence the MB front, primarily by changing the meridional stationary eddy velocity, with reinforced southerly wind on the northwestern flank of the north Pacific subtropical high (NPSH) over the MB region and northerly wind to its north. Changes in the longitudinal thermal gradient are mainly confined to the near downstream of the TP, with the resulting changes in zonal warm air advection having a lesser impact on the rainfall in the extended MB region.

Similar mechanisms are shown to be implicated in present climate simulations in the Couple Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. We find that the spatial distribution of the EASM precipitation simulated by different models is highly correlated with the meridional stationary eddy velocity. The correlation becomes more robust when energy fluxes into the atmospheric column are considered, consistent with the observational analyses. The spread in the area-averaged rainfall amount can be partially explained by the spread in the simulated globally-averaged precipitation, with the rest primarily due to the lower-level meridional wind convergence. Clear relationships between precipitation and zonal and meridional eddy velocities are observed.

Finally, the response of the EASM to greenhouse gas forcing is investigated at different time scales in CMIP5 model simulations. The reduction of radiative cooling and the increase in continental surface temperature occur much more rapidly than changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Without changes in SSTs, the rainfall in the monsoon region decreases (increases) over ocean (land) in most models. On longer time scales, as SSTs increase, rainfall changes are opposite. The total response to atmospheric CO^2 forcing and subsequent SST warming is a large (modest) increase in rainfall over ocean (land) in the EASM region. Dynamic changes, in spite of significant contributions from the thermodynamic component, play an important role in setting up the spatial pattern of precipitation changes. Rainfall anomalies over East China are a direct consequence of local land-sea contrast, while changes in the larger-scale oceanic rainfall band are closely associated with the displacement of the larger-scale NPSH. Numerical simulations show that topography and SST patterns play an important role in rainfall changes in the EASM region.

Disseminação de dados estatísticos georeferenciados através de WEB services e software livre.

Diferentes organizações públicas e privadas coletam e disponibilizam uma massa de dados sobre a realidade sócio-econômica das diferentes nações. Há hoje, da parte do governo brasileiro, um interesse manifesto de divulgar uma gama diferenciada de informações para os mais diversos perfis de usuários. Persiste, contudo, uma série de limitações para uma divulgação mais massiva e democrática, entre elas, a heterogeneidade das fontes de dados, sua dispersão e formato de apresentação pouco amigável. Devido à complexidade inerente à informação geográfica envolvida, que produz incompatibilidade em vários níveis, o intercâmbio de dados em sistemas de informação geográfica não é problema trivial. Para aplicações desenvolvidas para a Web, uma solução são os Web Services que permitem que novas aplicações possam interagir com aquelas que já existem e que sistemas desenvolvidos em plataformas diferentes sejam compatíveis. Neste sentido, o objetivo do trabalho é mostrar as possibilidades de construção de portais usando software livre, a tecnologia dos Web Services e os padrões do Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) para a disseminação de dados espaciais. Visando avaliar e testar as tecnologias selecionadas e comprovar sua efetividade foi desenvolvido um exemplo de portal de dados sócio-econômicos, compreendendo informações de um servidor local e de servidores remotos. As contribuições do trabalho são a disponibilização de mapas dinâmicos, a geração de mapas através da composição de mapas disponibilizados em servidores remotos e local e o uso do padrão OGC WMC. Analisando o protótipo de portal construído, verifica-se, contudo, que a localização e requisição de Web Services não são tarefas fáceis para um usuário típico da Internet. Nesta direção, os trabalhos futuros no domínio dos portais de informação geográfica poderiam adotar a tecnologia Representational State Transfer (REST).