Deforestation and the spatio-temporal distribution of savannah and forest members of the Simulium damnosum complex in southern Ghana and south-western Togo

Spatio-temporal data on cytotaxonomic identifications of larvae of different members of the Simulium damnosum complex collected from rivers in southern Ghana and south-western Togo from 1975 until 1997 were analysed. When the data were combined, the percentages of savannah blackflies (S. damnosum sensu stricto and S. sirbanum) in the samples were shown to have been progressively increasing since 1975. The increases were statistically significant (P < 0·001), but the rates of increase were not linear. Further analyses were conducted according to the collection seasons and locations of the samples, to account for possible biases such as savannah flies occurring further south in the dry season or a preponderance of later samples from northern rivers having more savannah flies. These analyses showed that the increasing trend was statistically significant (P< 0·0001) only during the periods April to June and October to December. The presence of adult savannah flies carrying infective larvae (L3) indistinguishable from those of Onchocerca volvulus in the study zone was confirmed by examinations of captured flies. The percentages of savannah flies amongst the human-biting populations and the percentages with L3s in the head were higher during dry seasons than wet seasons and the savannah species were found furthest south (5 °25′N) in the dry season. Comparisons of satellite images taken in 1973 and 1990 over a study area in south-western Ghana encompassing stretches of the Tano and Bia rivers demonstrated that there have been substantial increases in urban and savannah areas, at the expense of forest. This was so not only for the whole images but also for subsamples of the images taken at 1, 2, 4, 8 and 16 km distant from sites alongside the River Tano. At every distance from the river, the percentages of pixels classified as urban or savannah have increased in 1990 compared with 1973, while those classified as degraded or dense forest have decreased. The possibility that the proportionate increases in savannah forms of the vectors of onchocerciasis, and hence in the likelihood of the transmission of savannah strains of the disease in formerly forested areas, were related to the decreases in forest cover is discussed.

Towards the sustainable use of Europe’s forests: a centre for European forest science! – Some missing catalytic elements?

The Symposium, “Towards the sustainable use of Europe’s forests”, with sub-title “Forest ecosystem and landscape research: scientific challenges and opportunities” lists three fundamental substantive areas of research that are involved: Forest management and practices, Ecosystem processes and functional ecology, and Environmental economics and sociology. This paper argues that there are essential catalytic elements missing! Without these elements there is great danger that the aimed-for world leadership in the forest sciences will not materialize. What are the missing elements? All the sciences, and in particular biology, environmental sciences, sociology, economics, and forestry have evolved so that they include good scientific methodology. Good methodology is imperative in both the design and analysis of research studies, the management of research data, and in the interpretation of research finding. The methodological disciplines of Statistics, Modelling and Informatics (“SMI”) are crucial elements in a proposed Centre of European Forest Science, and the full involvement of professionals in these methodological disciplines is needed if the research of the Centre is to be world-class. Distributed Virtual Institute (DVI) for Statistics, Modelling and Informatics in Forestry and the Environment (SMIFE) is a consortium with the aim of providing world-class methodological support and collaboration to European research in the areas of Forestry and the Environment. It is suggested that DVI: SMIFE should be a formal partner in the proposed Centre for European Forest Science.

A new parameterization of Johnson's SB distribution with application to fitting forest tree diameter data

The SB distributional model of Johnson's 1949 paper was introduced by a transformation to normality, that is, z ~ N(0, 1), consisting of a linear scaling to the range (0, 1), a logit transformation, and an affine transformation, z = γ + δu. The model, in its original parameterization, has often been used in forest diameter distribution modelling. In this paper, we define the SB distribution in terms of the inverse transformation from normality, including an initial linear scaling transformation, u = γ′ + δ′z (δ′ = 1/δ and γ′ = �γ/δ). The SB model in terms of the new parameterization is derived, and maximum likelihood estimation schema are presented for both model parameterizations. The statistical properties of the two alternative parameterizations are compared empirically on 20 data sets of diameter distributions of Changbai larch (Larix olgensis Henry). The new parameterization is shown to be statistically better than Johnson's original parameterization for the data sets considered here.

Semi-Parametric Analysis of Extreme Forest Fires

Forest fires can cause extensive damage to natural resources and properties. They can also destroy wildlife habitat, affect the forest ecosystem and threaten human lives. In this paper incidences of extreme wildland fires are modelled by a point process model which incorporates time-trend. A model based on a generalised Pareto distribution is used to model data on acres of wildland burnt by extreme fire in the US since 1825. A semi-parametric smoothing approach, which is very useful in exploratory analysis of changes in extremes, is illustrated with the maximum likelihood method to estimate model parameters.

Occupational health regulations and health workers: protection or vulnerability?

Several trade agreements include occupational health and safety regulations but there are many barriers to implementation. Mechanisms for sanctions are often weak but the lack of political will is the biggest barrier.

Use of Continuous Plankton Recorder information in support of marine management: applications in fisheries, environmental protection, and in the study of ecosystem response to environmental change

The Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) survey was conceived from the outset as a programme of applied research designed to assist the fishing industry. Its survival and continuing vigour after 70 years is a testament to its utility, which has been achieved in spite of great changes in our understanding of the marine environment and in our concerns over how to manage it. The CPR has been superseded in several respects by other technologies, such as acoustics and remote sensing, but it continues to provide unrivalled seasonal and geographic information about a wide range of zooplankton and phytoplankton taxa. The value of this coverage increases with time and provides the basis for placing recent observations into the context of long-term, large-scale variability and thus suggesting what the causes are likely to be. Information from the CPR is used extensively in judging environmental impacts and producing quality status reports (QSR); it has shown the distributions of fish stocks, which had not previously been exploited; it has pointed to the extent of ungrazed phytoplankton production in the North Atlantic, which was a vital element in establishing the importance of carbon sequestration by phytoplankton. The CPR continues to be the principal source of large-scale, long-term information about the plankton ecosystem of the North Atlantic. It has recently provided extensive information about the biodiversity of the plankton and about the distribution of introduced species. It serves as a valuable example for the design of future monitoring of the marine environment and it has been essential to the design and implementation of most North Atlantic plankton research.

Characterisation of European Marine Sites: Mersey Estuary Special Protection Area. Occasional Publication of the Marine Biological Association 18

This report provides an overview of water and sediment quality within the Mersey Estuary European Marine Site (EMS) and examines evidence for their influence on bioloigcal condition. It has not been possible to determine adequately whether prevailing conditions in the Mersey impact on the interest features of the site as studies which address this issue have not been carried out. It is only possible to review the current level of knowledge regarding the biological and chemical status for the estuary, and extrapolate risks to the bird population. Often information relates to sites outside the EMS; where this is the case the authors have tried to appraise the general status of the estuary, based on best available knowledge.