Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Food Production and Export

The global food system is undergoing unprecedented change. With population increases, demands for food globally will continue to rise at the same time that agricultural environments are compromised through urban encroachment, climate change and environmental degradation. Australia has long identified itself as an agricultural exporting nation—but what will its capacity be in feeding an increasing global population as it also comes to terms with extreme climatic events such as the floods, fires and droughts, and reduced water availability, experienced in recent decades? This chapter traces the history of Australian agricultural exports and evaluates its food production and export capacity against scientific predictions of climate change impacts. With the federal government forecasting declines in the production of wheat, beef, dairy and sugar, Australia’s key export commodities may well be compromised. Calls to produce more food using new technologies are likely to generate significant environmental problems. Yet, a radical reconfiguration of Australian agriculture which incorporates alternative approaches, such as agro-ecology, is rarely considered by government and industry.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Setting water quality objectives for the health of freshwater fish

An important responsibility of the Environment Protection Authority, Victoria, is to set objectives for levels of environmental contaminants. To support the development of environmental objectives for water quality, a need has been identified to understand the dual impacts of concentration and duration of a contaminant on biota in freshwater streams. For suspended solids contamination, information reported by Newcombe and Jensen [ North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 16(4):693--727, 1996] study of freshwater fish and the daily suspended solids data from the United States Geological Survey stream monitoring network is utilised. The study group was requested to examine both the utility of the Newcombe and Jensen and the USA data, as well as the formulation of a procedure for use by the Environment Protection Authority Victoria that takes concentration and duration of harmful episodes into account when assessing water quality. The extent to which the impact of a toxic event on fish health could be modelled deterministically was also considered. It was found that concentration and exposure duration were the main compounding factors on the severity of effects of suspended solids on freshwater fish. A protocol for assessing the cumulative effect on fish health and a simple deterministic model, based on the biology of gill harm and recovery, was proposed. References D. W. T. Au, C. A. Pollino, R. S. S Wu, P. K. S. Shin, S. T. F. Lau, and J. Y. M. Tang. Chronic effects of suspended solids on gill structure, osmoregulation, growth, and triiodothyronine in juvenile green grouper epinephelus coioides . Marine Ecology Press Series , 266:255--264, 2004. J.C. Bezdek, S.K. Chuah, and D. Leep. Generalized k-nearest neighbor rules. Fuzzy Sets and Systems , 18:237--26, 1986. E. T. Champagne, K. L. Bett-Garber, A. M. McClung, and C. Bergman. {Sensory characteristics of diverse rice cultivars as influenced by genetic and environmental factors}. Cereal Chem. , {81}:{237--243}, {2004}. S. G. Cheung and P. K. S. Shin. Size effects of suspended particles on gill damage in green-lipped mussel perna viridis. Marine Pollution Bulletin , 51(8--12):801--810, 2005. D. H. Evans. The fish gill: site of action and model for toxic effects of environmental pollutants. Environmental Health Perspectives , 71:44--58, 1987. G. C. Grigg. The failure of oxygen transport in a fish at low levels of ambient oxygen. Comp. Biochem. Physiol. , 29:1253--1257, 1969. G. Holmes, A. Donkin, and I.H. Witten. {Weka: A machine learning workbench}. In Proceedings of the Second Australia and New Zealand Conference on Intelligent Information Systems , volume {24}, pages {357--361}, {Brisbane, Australia}, {1994}. {IEEE Computer Society}. D. D. Macdonald and C. P. Newcombe. Utility of the stress index for predicting suspended sediment effects: response to comments. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 13:873--876, 1993. C. P. Newcombe. Suspended sediment in aquatic ecosystems: ill effects as a function of concentration and duration of exposure. Technical report, British Columbia Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks, Habitat Protection branch, Victoria, 1994. C. P. Newcombe and J. O. T. Jensen. Channel suspended sediment and fisheries: A synthesis for quantitative assessment of risk and impact. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 16(4):693--727, 1996. C. P. Newcombe and D. D. Macdonald. Effects of suspended sediments on aquatic ecosystems. North American Journal of Fisheries Management , 11(1):72--82, 1991. K. Schmidt-Nielsen. Scaling. Why is animal size so important? Cambridge University Press, NY, 1984. J. S. Schwartz, A. Simon, and L. Klimetz. Use of fish functional traits to associate in-stream suspended sediment transport metrics with biological impairment. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment , 179(1--4):347--369, 2011. E. Al Shaw and J. S. Richardson. Direct and indirect effects of sediment pulse duration on stream invertebrate assemb ages and rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) growth and survival. Canadian Journal of Fish and Aquatic Science , 58:2213--2221, 2001. P. Tiwari and H. Hasegawa. {Demand for housing in Tokyo: A discrete choice analysis}. Regional Studies , {38}:{27--42}, {2004}. Y. Tramblay, A. Saint-Hilaire, T. B. M. J. Ouarda, F. Moatar, and B Hecht. Estimation of local extreme suspended sediment concentrations in california rivers. Science of the Total Environment , 408:4221--

Energy Transformed : Building Capacity in the Engineering Profession in Australia

Global pressures of burgeoning population growth and consumption are threatening efforts to reduce negative environmental pressures associated with development such as atmospheric, land and water pollution. For example, the world’s population is now growing at over 70 million per year or 1 billion per decade (Brown, 2007), increasing from 3.5 billion in 1970, to 5 billion in 1990, to 7 billion by 2010 (United Nations, 2002). In 1990 only 13 percent of the global population lived in cities, while in 2007 more than half did. More than 60 percent of the global population lives within 100 kilometers of the coastline (World Resources Institute, 2005) and nearly all of the population growth hereon is forecast to happen in developing countries (Postel, 1999). Future levels of stress on the global environment are therefore likely to increase if current trends are used for forecasting, which is particularly challenging as scientists are already observing significant signs of degradation and failure in environmental systems. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007) provided an nequivocal link between climate change and current human activities, in particular: the burning of fossil fuels; deforestation and land clearing; the use of synthetic greenhouse gases; and decomposition of wastes from landfill. The UK Stern Review concluded that within our lifetime there is between a 77 to 99 percent chance (depending on the climate model used) of the global average temperature rising by more than 2 degrees Celsius (Stern, 2006), with a likely greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere of 550 parts per million (ppm) or more by around 2100.

Improving the accuracy of mine site water balances through improved estimation of runoff volumes

A mine site water balance is important for communicating information to interested stakeholders, for reporting on water performance, and for anticipating and mitigating water-related risks through water use/demand forecasting. Gaining accuracy over the water balance is therefore crucial for sites to achieve best practice water management and to maintain their social license to operate. For sites that are located in high rainfall environments the water received to storage dams through runoff can represent a large proportion of the overall inputs to site; inaccuracies in these flows can therefore lead to inaccuracies in the overall site water balance. Hydrological models that estimate runoff flows are often incorporated into simulation models used for water use/demand forecasting. The Australian Water Balance Model (AWBM) is one example that has been widely applied in the Australian context. However, the calibration of AWBM in a mining context can be challenging. Through a detailed case study, we outline an approach that was used to calibrate and validate AWBM at a mine site. Commencing with a dataset of monitored dam levels, a mass balance approach was used to generate an observed runoff sequence. By incorporating a portion of this observed dataset into the calibration routine, we achieved a closer fit between the observed vs. simulated dataset compared with the base case. We conclude by highlighting opportunities for future research to improve the calibration fit through improving the quality of the input dataset. This will ultimately lead to better models for runoff prediction and thereby improve the accuracy of mine site water balances.

Predicting movie ratings from audience behaviors

We propose a method of representing audience behavior through facial and body motions from a single video stream, and use these features to predict the rating for feature-length movies. This is a very challenging problem as: i) the movie viewing environment is dark and contains views of people at different scales and viewpoints; ii) the duration of feature-length movies is long (80-120 mins) so tracking people uninterrupted for this length of time is still an unsolved problem, and; iii) expressions and motions of audience members are subtle, short and sparse making labeling of activities unreliable. To circumvent these issues, we use an infrared illuminated test-bed to obtain a visually uniform input. We then utilize motion-history features which capture the subtle movements of a person within a pre-defined volume, and then form a group representation of the audience by a histogram of pair-wise correlations over a small-window of time. Using this group representation, we learn our movie rating classifier from crowd-sourced ratings collected by rottentomatoes.com and show our prediction capability on audiences from 30 movies across 250 subjects (> 50 hrs).

Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold

This paper employs a VAR-GARCH model to investigate the return links and volatility transmission between the S&P 500 and commodity price indices for energy, food, gold and beverages over the turbulent period from 2000 to 2011. Understanding the price behavior of commodity prices and the volatility transmission mechanism between these markets and the stock exchanges are crucial for each participant, including governments, traders, portfolio managers, consumers, and producers. For return and volatility spillover, the results show significant transmission among the S&P 500 and commodity markets. The past shocks and volatility of the S&P 500 strongly influenced the oil and gold markets. This study finds that the highest conditional correlations are between the S&P 500 and gold index and the S&P 500 and WTI index. We also analyze the optimal weights and hedge ratios for commodities/S&P 500 portfolio holdings using the estimates for each index. Overall, our findings illustrate several important implications for portfolio hedgers for making optimal portfolio allocations, engaging in risk management and forecasting future volatility in equity and commodity markets. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

A hard slog, not a leap frog : globalization and sustainability transitions in developing Asia

How does globalization influence transitions toward more sustainable socio-technical regimes in the developing world? This paper argues that transformations of regimes, the networks and institutions governing technological and environmental practices in an industry, can be positively influenced by globalization but it depends on how global forces interact with local socio-political landscapes-the political-economic institutions, values, and regulations broadly guiding an economy and its relationship to the environment. We evaluate these relationships through a comparison of two kinds of socio-political landscapes-the neo-liberal export-led development model commonly found in the developing world and the uniquely Asian capitalist developmental state. We first show how the neo-liberal model overemphasizes the power of market forces to facilitate upgrading and more sustainable industrialization. We then argue that capitalist developmental states in East and Southeast Asia have been better able to harness global economic forces for technological and sustainability transitions through an openness to trade and investment and effective public-private institutions able to link cleaner technologies and environmental standards to production activities in firms. We buttress this argument with firm-level evidence showing the evolution of socio-technical regimes in two industries-cement and electronics. The case studies demonstrate how interactions with OECD firms can contribute to environmental technique effects provided the socio-political landscape is amenable to changes in an industry's regime. Ultimately, we find the process of transition to be complex and contingent; a hard slog not a leap frog toward a potentially more sustainable future. We close by considering the limitations on the capitalist developmental state model and with comments about what else needs to be learned about globalization's role in sustainability transitions.

A model predictive approach for community battery energy storage system optimization

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for optimizing the operation of battery storage in a low voltage distribution network with a high penetration of PV generation. A predictive control solution is presented that uses wavelet neural networks to predict the load and PV generation at hourly intervals for twelve hours into the future. The load and generation forecast, and the previous twelve hours of load and generation history, is used to assemble load profile. A diurnal charging profile can be compactly represented by a vector of Fourier coefficients allowing a direct search optimization algorithm to be applied. The optimal profile is updated hourly allowing the state of charge profile to respond to changing forecasts in load.

Male and female cyclist and driver perceptions of crash risk

Many drivers and non-cyclists perceive cycling as an extremely risky activity with women in particular being concerned about the risk of injury. The low rates of cycling participation by women pose a threat to the achievement of government targets for cycling participation and restrict the potential transport, health and environmental benefits that increased levels of cycling could provide. This study seeks to extend earlier research in gender and cycling by comparing the risks perceived by female and male cyclists and drivers in specific on-road situations while accounting for other potentially gender-related factors such as travel patterns and experience, perceived skill, and risk taking behaviors. In an online survey, 444 regular cyclists and 151 (non-cyclist) car drivers rated the level of risk in six situations: Failing to yield; Going through a red light; Not signaling when turning; Swerving; Tailgating; and Not checking traffic. The study found that the higher levels of risk perceived by women are not completely accounted for by differences in cycling patterns or perceptions of skill. Compared to their male counterparts, female cyclists and car drivers had similarly elevated perceptions of risk suggesting that these gender differences are not specific to cycling, but reflect wider differences in risk perception. Not all of the gender differences were consistent across cyclists and drivers. Higher levels of perceived skill were evident for male cyclists but not for male car drivers. Further research is needed to explore the robustness and interpretation of this finding.

Using internet search queries for infectious disease surveillance: screening diseases for suitability

Background Internet-based surveillance systems provide a novel approach to monitoring infectious diseases. Surveillance systems built on internet data are economically, logistically and epidemiologically appealing and have shown significant promise. The potential for these systems has increased with increased internet availability and shifts in health-related information seeking behaviour. This approach to monitoring infectious diseases has, however, only been applied to single or small groups of select diseases. This study aims to systematically investigate the potential for developing surveillance and early warning systems using internet search data, for a wide range of infectious diseases. Methods Official notifications for 64 infectious diseases in Australia were downloaded and correlated with frequencies for 164 internet search terms for the period 2009–13 using Spearman’s rank correlations. Time series cross correlations were performed to assess the potential for search terms to be used in construction of early warning systems. Results Notifications for 17 infectious diseases (26.6%) were found to be significantly correlated with a selected search term. The use of internet metrics as a means of surveillance has not previously been described for 12 (70.6%) of these diseases. The majority of diseases identified were vaccine-preventable, vector-borne or sexually transmissible; cross correlations, however, indicated that vector-borne and vaccine preventable diseases are best suited for development of early warning systems. Conclusions The findings of this study suggest that internet-based surveillance systems have broader applicability to monitoring infectious diseases than has previously been recognised. Furthermore, internet-based surveillance systems have a potential role in forecasting emerging infectious disease events, especially for vaccine-preventable and vector-borne diseases

Global environmental emissions estimate: Application of multiple imputation

A new database called the World Resource Table is constructed in this study. Missing values are known to produce complications when constructing global databases. This study provides a solution for applying multiple imputation techniques and estimates the global environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for CO2, SO2, PM10, and BOD. Policy implications for each type of emission are derived based on the results of the EKC using WRI. Finally, we predicted the future emissions trend and regional share of CO2 emissions. We found that East Asia and South Asia will be increasing their emissions share while other major CO2 emitters will still produce large shares of the total global emissions.