935 resultados para Forecast combination
Resumo:
An engineering modification of blade element/momentum theory is applied to describe the vertical autorotation of helicopter rotors. A full non‐linear aerodynamic model is considered for the airfoils, taking into account the dependence of lift and drag coefficients on both the angle of attack and the Reynolds number. The proposed model, which has been validated in previous work, has allowed the identification of different autorotation modes, which depend on the descent velocity and the twist of the rotor blades. These modes present different radial distributions of driven and driving blade regions, as well as different radial upwash/downwash patterns. The number of blade sections with zero tangential force, the existence of a downwash region in the rotor disk, the stability of the autorotation state, and the overall rotor autorotation efficiency, are all analyzed in terms of the flight velocity and the characteristics of the rotor. It is shown that, in vertical autorotation, larger blade twist leads to smaller values of descent velocity for a given thrust generated by the rotor in the autorotational state.
Resumo:
En el futuro, la gestión del tráfico aéreo (ATM, del inglés air traffic management) requerirá un cambio de paradigma, de la gestión principalmente táctica de hoy, a las denominadas operaciones basadas en trayectoria. Un incremento en el nivel de automatización liberará al personal de ATM —controladores, tripulación, etc.— de muchas de las tareas que realizan hoy. Las personas seguirán siendo el elemento central en la gestión del tráfico aéreo del futuro, pero lo serán mediante la gestión y toma de decisiones. Se espera que estas dos mejoras traigan un incremento en la eficiencia de la gestión del tráfico aéreo que permita hacer frente al incremento previsto en la demanda de transporte aéreo. Para aplicar el concepto de operaciones basadas en trayectoria, el usuario del espacio aéreo (la aerolínea, piloto, u operador) y el proveedor del servicio de navegación aérea deben negociar las trayectorias mediante un proceso de toma de decisiones colaborativo. En esta negociación, es necesaria una forma adecuada de compartir dichas trayectorias. Compartir la trayectoria completa requeriría un gran ancho de banda, y la trayectoria compartida podría invalidarse si cambiase la predicción meteorológica. En su lugar, podría compartirse una descripción de la trayectoria independiente de las condiciones meteorológicas, de manera que la trayectoria real se pudiese calcular a partir de dicha descripción. Esta descripción de la trayectoria debería ser fácil de procesar usando un programa de ordenador —ya que parte del proceso de toma de decisiones estará automatizado—, pero también fácil de entender para un operador humano —que será el que supervise el proceso y tome las decisiones oportunas—. Esta tesis presenta una serie de lenguajes formales que pueden usarse para este propósito. Estos lenguajes proporcionan los medios para describir trayectorias de aviones durante todas las fases de vuelo, desde la maniobra de push-back (remolcado hasta la calle de rodaje), hasta la llegada a la terminal del aeropuerto de destino. También permiten describir trayectorias tanto de aeronaves tripuladas como no tripuladas, incluyendo aviones de ala fija y cuadricópteros. Algunos de estos lenguajes están estrechamente relacionados entre sí, y organizados en una jerarquía. Uno de los lenguajes fundamentales de esta jerarquía, llamado aircraft intent description language (AIDL), ya había sido desarrollado con anterioridad a esta tesis. Este lenguaje fue derivado de las ecuaciones del movimiento de los aviones de ala fija, y puede utilizarse para describir sin ambigüedad trayectorias de este tipo de aeronaves. Una variante de este lenguaje, denominada quadrotor AIDL (QR-AIDL), ha sido desarrollada en esta tesis para permitir describir trayectorias de cuadricópteros con el mismo nivel de detalle. Seguidamente, otro lenguaje, denominado intent composite description language (ICDL), se apoya en los dos lenguajes anteriores, ofreciendo más flexibilidad para describir algunas partes de la trayectoria y dejar otras sin especificar. El ICDL se usa para proporcionar descripciones genéricas de maniobras comunes, que después se particularizan y combinan para formar descripciones complejas de un vuelo. Otro lenguaje puede construirse a partir del ICDL, denominado flight intent description language (FIDL). El FIDL especifica requisitos de alto nivel sobre las trayectorias —incluyendo restricciones y objetivos—, pero puede utilizar características del ICDL para proporcionar niveles de detalle arbitrarios en las distintas partes de un vuelo. Tanto el ICDL como el FIDL han sido desarrollados en colaboración con Boeing Research & Technology Europe (BR&TE). También se ha desarrollado un lenguaje para definir misiones en las que interactúan varias aeronaves, el mission intent description language (MIDL). Este lenguaje se basa en el FIDL y mantiene todo su poder expresivo, a la vez que proporciona nuevas semánticas para describir tareas, restricciones y objetivos relacionados con la misión. En ATM, los movimientos de un avión en la superficie de aeropuerto también tienen que ser monitorizados y gestionados. Otro lenguaje formal ha sido diseñado con este propósito, llamado surface movement description language (SMDL). Este lenguaje no pertenece a la jerarquía de lenguajes descrita en el párrafo anterior, y se basa en las clearances (autorizaciones del controlador) utilizadas durante las operaciones en superficie de aeropuerto. También proporciona medios para expresar incertidumbre y posibilidad de cambios en las distintas partes de la trayectoria. Finalmente, esta tesis explora las aplicaciones de estos lenguajes a la predicción de trayectorias y a la planificación de misiones. El concepto de trajectory language processing engine (TLPE) se usa en ambas aplicaciones. Un TLPE es una función de ATM cuya principal entrada y salida se expresan en cualquiera de los lenguajes incluidos en la jerarquía descrita en esta tesis. El proceso de predicción de trayectorias puede definirse como una combinación de TLPEs, cada uno de los cuales realiza una pequeña sub-tarea. Se le ha dado especial importancia a uno de estos TLPEs, que se encarga de generar el perfil horizontal, vertical y de configuración de la trayectoria. En particular, esta tesis presenta un método novedoso para la generación del perfil vertical. El proceso de planificar una misión también se puede ver como un TLPE donde la entrada se expresa en MIDL y la salida consiste en cierto número de trayectorias —una por cada aeronave disponible— descritas utilizando FIDL. Se ha formulado este problema utilizando programación entera mixta. Además, dado que encontrar caminos óptimos entre distintos puntos es un problema fundamental en la planificación de misiones, también se propone un algoritmo de búsqueda de caminos. Este algoritmo permite calcular rápidamente caminos cuasi-óptimos que esquivan todos los obstáculos en un entorno urbano. Los diferentes lenguajes formales definidos en esta tesis pueden utilizarse como una especificación estándar para la difusión de información entre distintos actores de la gestión del tráfico aéreo. En conjunto, estos lenguajes permiten describir trayectorias con el nivel de detalle necesario en cada aplicación, y se pueden utilizar para aumentar el nivel de automatización explotando esta información utilizando sistemas de soporte a la toma de decisiones. La aplicación de estos lenguajes a algunas funciones básicas de estos sistemas, como la predicción de trayectorias, han sido analizadas. ABSTRACT Future air traffic management (ATM) will require a paradigm shift from today’s mainly tactical ATM to trajectory-based operations (TBOs). An increase in the level of automation will also relieve humans —air traffic control officers (ATCOs), flight crew, etc.— from many of the tasks they perform today. Humans will still be central in this future ATM, as decision-makers and managers. These two improvements (TBOs and increased automation) are expected to provide the increase in ATM performance that will allow coping with the expected increase in air transport demand. Under TBOs, trajectories are negotiated between the airspace user (an airline, pilot, or operator) and the air navigation service provider (ANSP) using a collaborative decision making (CDM) process. A suitable method for sharing aircraft trajectories is necessary for this negotiation. Sharing a whole trajectory would require a high amount of bandwidth, and the shared trajectory might become invalid if the weather forecast changed. Instead, a description of the trajectory, decoupled from the weather conditions, could be shared, so that the actual trajectory could be computed from this trajectory description. This trajectory description should be easy to process using a computing program —as some of the CDM processes will be automated— but also easy to understand for a human operator —who will be supervising the process and making decisions. This thesis presents a series of formal languages that can be used for this purpose. These languages provide the means to describe aircraft trajectories during all phases of flight, from push back to arrival at the gate. They can also describe trajectories of both manned and unmanned aircraft, including fixedwing and some rotary-wing aircraft (quadrotors). Some of these languages are tightly interrelated and organized in a language hierarchy. One of the key languages in this hierarchy, the aircraft intent description language (AIDL), had already been developed prior to this thesis. This language was derived from the equations of motion of fixed-wing aircraft, and can provide an unambiguous description of fixed-wing aircraft trajectories. A variant of this language, the quadrotor AIDL (QR-AIDL), is developed in this thesis to allow describing a quadrotor aircraft trajectory with the same level of detail. Then, the intent composite description language (ICDL) is built on top of these two languages, providing more flexibility to describe some parts of the trajectory while leaving others unspecified. The ICDL is used to provide generic descriptions of common aircraft manoeuvres, which can be particularized and combined to form complex descriptions of flight. Another language is built on top of the ICDL, the flight intent description language (FIDL). The FIDL specifies high-level requirements on trajectories —including constraints and objectives—, but can use features of the ICDL to provide arbitrary levels of detail in different parts of the flight. The ICDL and FIDL have been developed in collaboration with Boeing Research & Technology Europe (BR&TE). Also, the mission intent description language (MIDL) has been developed to allow describing missions involving multiple aircraft. This language is based on the FIDL and keeps all its expressive power, while it also provides new semantics for describing mission tasks, mission objectives, and constraints involving several aircraft. In ATM, the movement of aircraft while on the airport surface also has to be monitored and managed. Another formal language has been designed for this purpose, denoted surface movement description language (SMDL). This language does not belong to the language hierarchy described above, and it is based on the clearances used in airport surface operations. Means to express uncertainty and mutability of different parts of the trajectory are also provided. Finally, the applications of these languages to trajectory prediction and mission planning are explored in this thesis. The concept of trajectory language processing engine (TLPE) is used in these two applications. A TLPE is an ATM function whose main input and output are expressed in any of the languages in the hierarchy described in this thesis. A modular trajectory predictor is defined as a combination of multiple TLPEs, each of them performing a small subtask. Special attention is given to the TLPE that builds the horizontal, vertical, and configuration profiles of the trajectory. In particular, a novel method for the generation of the vertical profile is presented. The process of planning a mission can also be seen as a TLPE, where the main input is expressed in the MIDL and the output consists of a number of trajectory descriptions —one for each aircraft available in the mission— expressed in the FIDL. A mixed integer linear programming (MILP) formulation for the problem of assigning mission tasks to the available aircraft is provided. In addition, since finding optimal paths between locations is a key problem to mission planning, a novel path finding algorithm is presented. This algorithm can compute near-shortest paths avoiding all obstacles in an urban environment in very short times. The several formal languages described in this thesis can serve as a standard specification to share trajectory information among different actors in ATM. In combination, these languages can describe trajectories with the necessary level of detail for any application, and can be used to increase automation by exploiting this information using decision support tools (DSTs). Their applications to some basic functions of DSTs, such as trajectory prediction, have been analized.
Resumo:
We present an approach for evaluating the efficacy of combination antitumor agent schedules that accounts for order and timing of drug administration. Our model-based approach compares in vivo tumor volume data over a time course and offers a quantitative definition for additivity of drug effects, relative to which synergism and antagonism are interpreted. We begin by fitting data from individual mice receiving at most one drug to a differential equation tumor growth/drug effect model and combine individual parameter estimates to obtain population statistics. Using two null hypotheses: (i) combination therapy is consistent with additivity or (ii) combination therapy is equivalent to treating with the more effective single agent alone, we compute predicted tumor growth trajectories and their distribution for combination treated animals. We illustrate this approach by comparing entire observed and expected tumor volume trajectories for a data set in which HER-2/neu-overexpressing MCF-7 human breast cancer xenografts are treated with a humanized, anti-HER-2 monoclonal antibody (rhuMAb HER-2), doxorubicin, or one of five proposed combination therapy schedules.
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Exposure to 3TC of HIV-1 mutant strains containing non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI)-specific mutations in their reverse transcriptase (RT) easily selected for double-mutant viruses that had acquired the characteristic 184-Ile mutation in their RT in addition to the NNRTI-specific mutations. Conversely, exposure of 3TC-resistant 184-Val mutant HIV-1 strains to nine different NNRTIs resulted in the rapid emergence of NNRTI-resistant virus strains at a time that was not more delayed than when wild-type HIV-1(IIIB) was exposed to the same compounds. The RTs of these resistant virus strains had acquired the NNRTI-characteristic mutations in addition to the preexisting 184-Val mutation. Surprisingly, when the 184-Ile mutant HIV-1 was exposed to a variety of NNRTIs, the 188-His mutation invariably occurred concomitantly with the 184-Ile mutation in the HIV-1 RT. Breakthrough of this double-mutant virus was markedly accelerated as compared with the mutant virus selected from the wild-type or 184-Val mutant HIV-1 strain. The double (184-Ile + 188-His) mutant virus showed a much more profound resistance profile against the NNRTIs than the 188-His HIV-1 mutant. In contrast with the sequential chemotherapy, concomitant combination treatment of HIV-1-infected cells with 3TC and a variety of NNRTIs resulted in a dramatic delay of virus breakthrough and resistance development.
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The urokinase plasminogen activator system is involved in angiogenesis and tumor growth of malignant gliomas, which are highly neovascularized and so may be amenable to antiangiogenic therapy. In this paper, we describe the activity of Å6, an octamer capped peptide derived from the non-receptor-binding region of urokinase plasminogen activator. Å6 inhibited human microvascular endothelial cell migration but had no effect on the proliferation of human microvascular endothelial cells or U87MG glioma cells in vitro. In contrast, Å6 or cisplatin (CDDP) alone suppressed subcutaneous tumor growth in vivo by 48% and 53%, respectively, and, more strikingly, the combination of Å6 plus CDDP inhibited tumor growth by 92%. Such combination treatment also greatly reduced the volume of intracranial tumor xenografts and increased survival of tumor-bearing animals when compared with CDDP or Å6 alone. Tumors from the combination treatment group had significantly reduced neovascularization, suggesting a mechanism involving Å6-mediated inhibition of endothelial cell motility, thereby eliciting vascular sensitivity to CDDP-mediated toxicity. These data suggest that the combination of an angiogenesis inhibitor that targets endothelial cells with a cytotoxic agent may be a useful therapeutic approach.
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Caenorhabditis elegans is an ideal organism for the study of the molecular basis of fundamental biological processes such as germ-line development, especially because of availability of the whole genome sequence and applicability of the RNA interference (RNAi) technique. To identify genes involved in germ-line development, we produced subtracted cDNA pools either enriched for or deprived of the cDNAs from germ-line tissues. We then performed differential hybridization on the high-density cDNA grid, on which about 7,600 nonoverlapping expressed sequence tag (EST) clones were spotted, to identify a set of genes specifically expressed in the germ line. One hundred and sixty-eight clones were then tested with the RNAi technique. Of these, 15 clones showed sterility with a variety of defects in germ-line development. Seven of them led to the production of unfertilized eggs, because of defects in spermatogenesis (4 clones), or defects in the oocytes (3 clones). The other 8 clones led to failure of oogenesis. These failures were caused by germ-line proliferation defect (Glp phenotype), meiotic arrest, and defects in sperm–oocyte switch (Mog phenotype) among others. These results demonstrate the efficacy of the screening strategy using the EST library combined with the RNAi technique in C. elegans.
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DNA vaccines expressing herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) full-length glycoprotein D (gD), or a truncated form of HSV-2 glycoprotein B (gB) were evaluated for protective efficacy in two experimental models of HSV-2 infection. Intramuscular (i.m.) injection of mice showed that each construction induced neutralizing serum antibodies and protected the mice from lethal HSV-2 infection. Dose-titration studies showed that low doses (< or = 1 microgram) of either DNA construction induced protective immunity, and that a single immunization with the gD construction was effective. The two DNAs were then tested in a low-dosage combination in guinea pigs. Immune sera from DNA-injected animals had antibodies to both gD and gB, and virus neutralizing activity. When challenged by vaginal infection with HSV-2, the DNA-immunized animals were significantly protected from primary genital disease.
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Five structurally related thiophene and furane analogues of the oxathiin carboxanilide derivative NSC 615985 (UC84) (designated UC10, UC68, UC81, UC42, and UC16) were identified as potent inhibitors of HIV-1 replication in cell culture and HIV-1 reverse transcriptase activity. These compounds were markedly active against a series of mutant HIV-1 strains, containing the Leu-100-->Ile, Val-106-->Ala, Glu-138-->Lys, or Tyr-181-->Cys mutations in their reverse transcriptase. However, the thiocarboxanilide derivatives selected for mutations at amino acid positions 100 (Leu-->Ile), 101 (Lys-->Ile/Glu), 103 (Lys-->Thr/Asp) and 141 (Gly-->Glu) in the HIV-1 reverse transcriptase. The compounds completely suppressed HIV-1 replication and prevented the emergence of resistant virus strains when used at 1.3-6.6 microM--that is, 10- to 25-fold lower than the concentration required for nevirapine and bis(heteroaryl)piperazine (BHAP) U90152 to do so. If UC42 was combined with the [2',5'-bis-O-(tert-butyldimethylsilyl)-3'-spiro-5"-(4"-amino-1",2"- oxathiole-2",2"-dioxide)]-beta-D-pentofuranosyl (TSAO) derivative of N3-methylthymine (TSAO-m3T), virus breakthrough could be prevented for a much longer time, and at much lower concentrations, than if the compounds were used individually. Virus breakthrough could be suppressed for even longer, and at lower drug concentrations, if BHAP was added to the combination of UC42 with TSAO-m3T, which points to the feasibility of two- or three-drug combinations in preventing virus breakthrough and resistance development.
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The induction of arthritis in DBA/1 mice usually requires immunization with the antigen type II collagen emulsified with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in oil. Here we describe that interleukin 12 (IL-12) can replace mycobacteria and cause severe arthritis of DBA/1 mice when administered in combination with type II collagen. Immunization of DBA/1 mice with type II collagen emulsified in oil alone resulted in a weak immune response, and only a few animals (10-30%) developed arthritis. Administration of IL-12 for 5 days simultaneously with each immunization strongly enhanced the anti-type II collagen immune response. Collagen-specific interferon gamma (IFN-gamma) synthesis by ex vivo activated spleen cells was enhanced 3- to 10-fold. IFN-gamma was almost completely produced by CD4+ T cells. Furthermore, the production of collagen-specific IgG2a and IgG2b antibodies was upregulated 10- to 100-fold. As a consequence, the incidence of arthritis in the group of mice immunized with collagen plus IL-12 was very high (80-100%). The developing arthritis was severe, involving approximately 50% of all limbs with strongly increased footpad thickness in most cases. Furthermore, histological examination revealed massive, mainly polymorphonuclear cell infiltration, synovial hyperplasia, cartilage and bone destruction, as well as new bone formation. In many cases, this resulted in the complete loss of joint structure. Neutralization of IFN-gamma in vivo prevented the development of arthritis in collagen-immunized and IL-12-treated mice. In conclusion, our data show that in vivo administered IL-12 can profoundly upregulate a T helper I-type autoimmune response, resulting in severe joint disease in DBA/1 mice.
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The efficacy of combination therapy with a "suicide gene" and a cytokine gene to treat metastatic colon carcinoma in the liver was investigated. Tumor in the liver was generated by intrahepatic injection of a colon carcinoma cell line (MCA-26) in syngeneic BALB/c mice. Recombinant adenoviral vectors containing various control and therapeutic genes were injected directly into the solid tumors, followed by treatment with ganciclovir. While the tumors continued to grow in all animals treated with a control vector or a mouse interleukin 2 vector, those treated with a herpes simplex virus thymidine kinase vector, with or without the coadministration of the mouse interleukin 2 vector, exhibited dramatic necrosis and regression. However, only animals treated with both vectors developed an effective systemic antitumoral immunity against challenges of tumorigenic doses of parental tumor cells inoculated at distant sites. The antitumoral immunity was associated with the presence of MCA-26 tumor-specific cytolytic CD8+ T lymphocytes. The results suggest that combination suicide and cytokine gene therapy in vivo can be a powerful approach for treatment of metastatic colon carcinoma in the liver.
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We examine the predictive ability and consistency properties of exchange rate expectations for the dollar/euro using a survey conducted in Spain by PwC among a panel of experts and entrepreneurs. Our results suggest that the PwC panel have some forecasting ability for time horizons from 3 to 9 months, although only for the 3-month ahead expectations we obtain marginal evidence of unbiasedness and efficiency in the forecasts. As for the consistency properties of the exchange rate expectations formation process, we find that survey participants form stabilising expectations in the short-run and destabilising expectations in the long- run and that the expectation formation process is closer to fundamentalists than chartists.
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Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (high-top') and models that do not (low-top'). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (December-March) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) and how they relate to predictive skill on intraseasonal to seasonal time-scales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.
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In this work, batch and dynamic adsorption tests are coupled for an accurate evaluation of CO2 adsorption performance for three different activated carbons obtained from olives stones by chemical activation followed by physical activation with CO2 at varying times, i.e. 20, 40 and 60 h. Kinetic and thermodynamic CO2 adsorption tests from simulated flue-gas at different temperature and CO2 pressure are carried out both in batch (a manometric equipment operating with pure CO2) and dynamic (a lab-scale fixed-bed column operating with CO2/N2 mixture) conditions. The textural characterization of the activated carbon samples shows a direct dependence of both micropore and ultramicropore volume on the activation time, hence AC60 has the higher contribution. The adsorption tests conducted at 273 and 293 K showed that, when CO2 pressure is lower than 0.3 bar, the lower the activation time the higher CO2 adsorption capacity and a ranking ωeq(AC20)>ωeq(AC40)>ωeq(AC60) can be exactly defined when T= 293 K. This result can be likely ascribed to a narrower pore size distribution of the AC20 sample, whose smaller pores are more effective for CO2 capture at higher temperature and lower CO2 pressure, the latter representing operating conditions of major interest for decarbonation of a flue-gas effluent. Moreover, the experimental results obtained from dynamic tests confirm the results derived from the batch tests in terms of CO2 adsorption capacity. It is important to highlight that the adsorption of N2 on the synthesized AC samples can be considered negligible. Finally, the importance of a proper analysis of characterization data and adsorption experimental results is highlighted for a correct assessment of CO2 removal performances of activated carbons at different CO2 pressure and operating temperature.