典型草原物候特征及其对生态系统功能的影响研究

植物物候反映的是植物(包括农作物)和环境(气候、水文、土壤条件)的周期性变化之间的相互关系。在气候变化背景下，植物物候已经发生了显著变化，并且对生态系统产生了重要影响。然而，目前的物候研究大多是针对木本植物，对于草本植物的研究则相对缺乏，而且草本植物的物候节律表现出较木本植物更为复杂的特征，不但受温度影响，亦受到水分因素的影响。 本研究利用内蒙古典型草原区克氏针茅草原建群种羊草和克氏针茅自1985～2003年19年的物候资料和气象数据，分析了物候特征及气候因子的变化趋势，探究了两种植物返青期和枯黄期的主导因子。结果表明，克氏针茅草原近20年来的气候发生了显著的变化，总体表现为温度升高、降水量降少、土壤水分含量减少。与以往物候研究结果不同的是，羊草和克氏针茅返青期在气候变暖的背景下却显著滞后。相关分析显示返青前期土壤水分是导致返青滞后的主要原因。对于枯黄期的相关分析同样显示水分因子是制约两种植物生长季结束的关键因子。在检验现有返青期和枯黄期物候模型对于典型草原适用性的基础上，本研究选择应用广泛、计算简便的CTM(Cumulative Temperature Model)模型作为改进返青期物候模型的基础，在其中加入了水分的影响，使得改进返青期物候模型可以很好的模拟典型草原植物返青期，模拟误差小于7天。同时，构建了考虑水分和温度共同影响的枯黄期模型。改进后的物候模型提高了DCTEM(Dynamic Chinese Terrestrial Ecosystems Model)模型的模拟精度。 基于耦合改进物候模块的DCTEM模型对影响生态系统NPP(Net Primary Productivity)、NEP(Net Ecosystem Productivity)和AET(Annual Evapotranspiration)的因子加以分析。结果显示，降水量是影响克氏针茅草原生态系统功能的主要因子，其对于NPP、NEP、AET以及土壤异养呼吸等均有不同程度的影响。其次，生长季长度变化对于克氏针茅生态系统功能呈现出显著的影响作用，其影响程度仅次于降水量。 为了量化在实际的气象条件下单位生长季长度变化所引起生态系统NPP、NEP和AET的变化幅度，设置了三个引起生长季长度变化的物候模拟情景(动态枯黄情景、动态返青情景、动态起止情景)以及对照情景。研究结果显示，不同情景下植物生长季长度变化对于生态系统功能有着不同程度的影响。动态枯黄情景下由于草原枯黄期使整个生长季每延长一天NEP增加3.11％，NPP为0.34％，对于AET的影响最小为0.06％;动态返青情景下，由于草原返青期波动使得整个生长季延长一天则NEP增加1.54%，NPP为0.15％，对于AET的影响最小为0.01％;在动态起止情景下，生长季延长一天则NEP增加3.37%，NPP为0.39％，对于AET的影响最小为0.06％。总体而言，由于枯黄期引起的生长季变化对生态系统功能影响程度比由于返青期引起的程度高。此外，不同的生态系统功能要素对于物候变化的影响程度也有所不同。在几种模拟情景下，NEP受到生长季变化的影响最大，其次为NPP，AET受物候变化影响最小。

A case study of the disappearance of Arius tenuispinis (marine catfish) in the vicinity of Visakhapatnam due to mechanised fishing

Visakhapatnam is on the eastern sea board of India (17 degree 40' N and 83 degree 15' E) having a continental shelf of 45 km width which is provided with a polychaete rich, silty clay sea floor to a distance of 15 km and beyond, from the shore. Repeated trawling by a large number of trawlers over an area of 900 sq.km (30 x 30) resulted in the hardening of the substratum to the extent of making it uninhabitable to the polychaetes and polychaete feeding fish. The shoaling and strictly demersal marine catfish, Arius tenuispinis, which is a prolific polychaete feeder on the fishing grounds off Visakhapatnam, has been on the decline since 1979. The catch rate of fish dropped from 9.7 kg/boat per day in 1979 to 2.6 kg by 1985-86. In the bottomset gillnets, the catch per net dwindled from 4.4 kg in 1973 to 0.04 kg by 1985-86. The species has virtually disappeared from the fishing grounds off Visakhapatnam and further north, as a results of the cumulative effect of overfishing with trawlnets and bottomset gillnets. It is further aggravated by the hardening of the sea floor on these grounds due to repeated trawling over a narrow zone.

Mortality rates of the Poovalan prawn (Metapenaeus dobsoni) along the southwest coast of India with a note on the dynamics of its population

The annual instantaneous total mortality coefficient (Z) for the prawn Metapenaeus dobsoni has been estimated to range from 0.8 to 5.14 by the cumulative catch curve method. Different methods used in the study resulted in wide ranging values of natural mortality (M) (0.6 to 2.303), but the yield per recruit model when superimposed with the absolute yield values revealed the right order to be > 2. The biologically optimum yield of about 18 thousand tons is obtained for an effort of 2,702 trawlers per day for 215 fishing days when the annual exploitation ratio (E) is about 52%.

Comparative studies on growth of fry of GIFT and Existing strain of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus L.)

Comparative study on growth of fry in nursery system of Genetically Improved Farmed Tilapia (GIFT) and Existing strain of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) was performed. The trials were conducted in a series of hapa for two months. The initial mean weight of GIFT and Existing strains of tilapia were 1.03 and 1.12g, respectively and the stocking density for both the strains was maintained at 150/m³. Fishes were fed with supplementary feed 31.29% of protein level. After two months the final cumulative mean weight of GIFT and Existing strain were observed to be 8.38 and 5.51g, respectively. The net gain for weight of GIFT and existing strain were estimated to be 666% and 368% and the mean survival were 95.75% and 81.25%, respectively. The GIFT strain showed significantly (P<0.05) higher net gain in growth in weight and also higher (P<0.01) survival than that of existing strain.

Natural actor and belief critic: Reinforcement algorithm for learning parameters of dialogue systems modelled as POMDPs

This article presents a novel algorithm for learning parameters in statistical dialogue systems which are modeled as Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs). The three main components of a POMDP dialogue manager are a dialogue model representing dialogue state information; a policy that selects the system's responses based on the inferred state; and a reward function that specifies the desired behavior of the system. Ideally both the model parameters and the policy would be designed to maximize the cumulative reward. However, while there are many techniques available for learning the optimal policy, no good ways of learning the optimal model parameters that scale to real-world dialogue systems have been found yet. The presented algorithm, called the Natural Actor and Belief Critic (NABC), is a policy gradient method that offers a solution to this problem. Based on observed rewards, the algorithm estimates the natural gradient of the expected cumulative reward. The resulting gradient is then used to adapt both the prior distribution of the dialogue model parameters and the policy parameters. In addition, the article presents a variant of the NABC algorithm, called the Natural Belief Critic (NBC), which assumes that the policy is fixed and only the model parameters need to be estimated. The algorithms are evaluated on a spoken dialogue system in the tourist information domain. The experiments show that model parameters estimated to maximize the expected cumulative reward result in significantly improved performance compared to the baseline hand-crafted model parameters. The algorithms are also compared to optimization techniques using plain gradients and state-of-the-art random search algorithms. In all cases, the algorithms based on the natural gradient work significantly better. © 2011 ACM.

Assessing the potential of yield improvements, through process scrap reduction, for energy and CO2 abatement in the steel and aluminium sectors

Targets to cut 2050 CO2 emissions in the steel and aluminium sectors by 50%, whilst demand is expected to double, cannot be met by energy efficiency measures alone, so options that reduce total demand for liquid metal production must also be considered. Such reductions could occur through reduced demand for final goods (for instance by life extension), reduced demand for material use in each product (for instance by lightweight design) or reduced demand for material to make existing products. The last option, improving the yield of manufacturing processes from liquid metal to final product, is attractive in being invisible to the final customer, but has had little attention to date. Accordingly this paper aims to provide an estimate of the potential to make existing products with less liquid metal production. Yield ratios have been measured for five case study products, through a series of detailed factory visits, along each supply chain. The results of these studies, presented on graphs of cumulative energy against yield, demonstrate how the embodied energy in final products may be up to 15 times greater than the energy required to make liquid metal, due to yield losses. A top-down evaluation of the global flows of steel and aluminium showed that 26% of liquid steel and 41% of liquid aluminium produced does not make it into final products, but is diverted as process scrap and recycled. Reducing scrap substitutes production by recycling and could reduce total energy use by 17% and 6% and total CO 2 emissions by 16% and 7% for the steel and aluminium industries respectively, using forming and fabrication energy values from the case studies. The abatement potential of process scrap elimination is similar in magnitude to worldwide implementation of best available standards of energy efficiency and demonstrates how decreasing the recycled content may sometimes result in emission reductions. Evidence from the case studies suggests that whilst most companies are aware of their own yield ratios, few, if any, are fully aware of cumulative losses along their whole supply chain. Addressing yield losses requires this awareness to motivate collaborative approaches to improvement. © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Marketing of small indigenous species of fish (SIS) in three selected fish markets of Mymensingh

A socio-economic survey was conducted round the year in three fish markets at Mymensingh, Bangladesh. The selected markets were categorized as rural market (Sutiakhali market), a peri-urban market (Kamal Ranjeet market, BAU) and an urban market (Notun Bazar market, Mymensingh town). It was learnt from the survey that the availability of Small Indigenous Fish Species (SIS) declined to a great extent over the last few years and at presently many of such fish species are either threatened or at the edge of extinction. The supply of SIS was highest in KR market (37% of total) and more or less similar in Notun Bazar and Sutiakhali fish market (25 and 27% respectively). The total supply of SIS fluctuated from 25% to 35% throughout the year in these markets. About 48 SIS were found in the sampled markets over the survey period. The highest number of species (45) was found in KR market followed by Notun Bazar (42) and Sutiakhali (37) fish markets. During the survey, three critically endangered species namely, schilbid catfish, garua catfish and rita were found in these markets. Beside these, other 11 and 10 species were listed to be endangered and vulnerable respectively. The biodiversity of 21 SIS found in three markets were no threat at all. Three species (guntea loach, Indian glass barb and flying barb) were 'data deficient' as reported by the IUCN Red Book (IUCN-Bangladesh 2000). From the supply point of view small prawn, spotted snakehead, stinging catfish, pool barb, striped dwarf catfish, Gangetic mystus, walking catfish and tank goby were the prominent fish. The least available species found in this survey were lesser spiny eel, barred spiny eel, Gangetic ailia, freshwater garfish, zig-zag eel, flying barb, Ganges river sprat, freshwater river shad and dwarf gourami. The weight of SIS available in Notun bazar was highest and nearly double than other two markets. There was no significant difference recorded in the supply of SIS in Sutiakhali and KR markets. The average monthly SIS supply was 185, 192 and 467 kg in KR, Sutiakhali and Notun Bazar, respectively; therefore, the cumulative average supply was 844 kg per month in three markets. The price of SIS ranged widely from taka 50-450/kg depending on species, location of market, time of purchase and the condition of fish. In general small prawn, ticto barb, dwarf gourami, Gangetic leaffish, and Annandale loach were sold at a lower price (ranged taka 50-100/kg) and these species could be considered at the bottom of the market-price list. Other SIS like walking catfish, climbing parch, butter catfish, cotio and schilbid catfish valued as highest price (ranged taka 150-450/kg). There was no specific marketing chain for SIS in Mymensingh region. The components of marketing channels and their expansion varied with seasons and locations. The general pattern, however, was as this - after buying fish from fish farmer/fishermen, middlemen (locally known as Foria) used to buy fish to wholesale market and sell to the wholesalers. The retailers used to buy fish from wholesaler through auction to the highest bidders. The retailers then send the fish to particular market where the fish reached the consumers. The livelihood strategy of SIS retailers in three fish markets showed that socio-economic constraints such as low income, poor educational background, low economic status and lack of capital are the main constrains [sic]. Most of the retailers proposed that government should control the fish price throughout the year, so that the producers can get reasonable and stable price. Construction of cold storage and preservation facilities at market sites, improvement of road and communication, improvement of physical market facilities and reduction of market chain is essential. Credit facilities, improvement of their standard of living, health and sanitary condition, housing condition, children education and access to drinking water facilities were identified as additional aspects to improve socio-economic condition of SIS retailers.

FIRST PASSAGE APPROXIMATION FOR NORMAL STATIONARY RANDOM PROCESSES.

A new approximate solution for the first passage probability of a stationary Gaussian random process is presented which is based on the estimation of the mean clump size. A simple expression for the mean clump size is derived in terms of the cumulative normal distribution function, which avoids the lengthy numerical integrations which are required by similar existing techniques. The method is applied to a linear oscillator and an ideal bandpass process and good agreement with published results is obtained. By making a slight modification to an existing analysis it is shown that a widely used empirical result for the asymptotic form of the first passage probability can be deduced theoretically.

Reinforcement learning for parameter estimation in statistical spoken dialogue systems

Reinforcement techniques have been successfully used to maximise the expected cumulative reward of statistical dialogue systems. Typically, reinforcement learning is used to estimate the parameters of a dialogue policy which selects the system's responses based on the inferred dialogue state. However, the inference of the dialogue state itself depends on a dialogue model which describes the expected behaviour of a user when interacting with the system. Ideally the parameters of this dialogue model should be also optimised to maximise the expected cumulative reward. This article presents two novel reinforcement algorithms for learning the parameters of a dialogue model. First, the Natural Belief Critic algorithm is designed to optimise the model parameters while the policy is kept fixed. This algorithm is suitable, for example, in systems using a handcrafted policy, perhaps prescribed by other design considerations. Second, the Natural Actor and Belief Critic algorithm jointly optimises both the model and the policy parameters. The algorithms are evaluated on a statistical dialogue system modelled as a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process in a tourist information domain. The evaluation is performed with a user simulator and with real users. The experiments indicate that model parameters estimated to maximise the expected reward function provide improved performance compared to the baseline handcrafted parameters. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural and thermodynamic properties of different phases of supercooled liquid water.

Computer simulation results are reported for a realistic polarizable potential model of water in the supercooled region. Three states, corresponding to the low density amorphous ice, high density amorphous ice, and very high density amorphous ice phases are chosen for the analyses. These states are located close to the liquid-liquid coexistence lines already shown to exist for the considered model. Thermodynamic and structural quantities are calculated, in order to characterize the properties of the three phases. The results point out the increasing relevance of the interstitial neighbors, which clearly appear in going from the low to the very high density amorphous phases. The interstitial neighbors are found to be, at the same time, also distant neighbors along the hydrogen bonded network of the molecules. The role of these interstitial neighbors has been discussed in connection with the interpretation of recent neutron scattering measurements. The structural properties of the systems are characterized by looking at the angular distribution of neighboring molecules, volume and face area distribution of the Voronoi polyhedra, and order parameters. The cumulative analysis of all the corresponding results confirms the assumption that a close similarity between the structural arrangement of molecules in the three explored amorphous phases and that of the ice polymorphs I(h), III, and VI exists.

Independence is elusive: set size effects on encoding precision in visual search.

Looking for a target in a visual scene becomes more difficult as the number of stimuli increases. In a signal detection theory view, this is due to the cumulative effect of noise in the encoding of the distractors, and potentially on top of that, to an increase of the noise (i.e., a decrease of precision) per stimulus with set size, reflecting divided attention. It has long been argued that human visual search behavior can be accounted for by the first factor alone. While such an account seems to be adequate for search tasks in which all distractors have the same, known feature value (i.e., are maximally predictable), we recently found a clear effect of set size on encoding precision when distractors are drawn from a uniform distribution (i.e., when they are maximally unpredictable). Here we interpolate between these two extreme cases to examine which of both conclusions holds more generally as distractor statistics are varied. In one experiment, we vary the level of distractor heterogeneity; in another we dissociate distractor homogeneity from predictability. In all conditions in both experiments, we found a strong decrease of precision with increasing set size, suggesting that precision being independent of set size is the exception rather than the rule.

Creep and oxygen diffusion in magnetite

The creep rate of polycrystalline Fe3O4 has been measured as a fonction of stress and oxygen partial pressure in the temperature range 480-1100°C. A regime of power law creep is found at high stress, with a stress exponent of ≈- 3.1 and an activation energy of 264 kJ/mol. A regime of diffusional flow is found at lower stresses and is interpreted as Nabarro-Herring creep. The data for the two regimes are combined to deduce an oxygen diffusion coefficient of ≈-10-5 exp(-264 kJ/mol/RT) m2s-1, with oxygen vacancies suggested as the mobile species. © 1990.

Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal.

Each stage in the life cycle of coal-extraction, transport, processing, and combustion-generates a waste stream and carries multiple hazards for health and the environment. These costs are external to the coal industry and are thus often considered "externalities." We estimate that the life cycle effects of coal and the waste stream generated are costing the U.S. public a third to over one-half of a trillion dollars annually. Many of these so-called externalities are, moreover, cumulative. Accounting for the damages conservatively doubles to triples the price of electricity from coal per kWh generated, making wind, solar, and other forms of nonfossil fuel power generation, along with investments in efficiency and electricity conservation methods, economically competitive. We focus on Appalachia, though coal is mined in other regions of the United States and is burned throughout the world.

On the application of differential geometry to MDO

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO) is a methodology for optimizing large coupled systems. Over the years, a number of different MDO decomposition strategies, known as architectures, have been developed, and various pieces of analytical work have been done on MDO and its architectures. However, MDO lacks an overarching paradigm which would unify the field and promote cumulative research. In this paper, we propose a differential geometry framework as such a paradigm: Differential geometry comes with its own set of analysis tools and a long history of use in theoretical physics. We begin by outlining some of the mathematics behind differential geometry and then translate MDO into that framework. This initial work gives new tools and techniques for studying MDO and its architectures while producing a naturally arising measure of design coupling. The framework also suggests several new areas for exploration into and analysis of MDO systems. At this point, analogies with particle dynamics and systems of differential equations look particularly promising for both the wealth of extant background theory that they have and the potential predictive and evaluative power that they hold. © 2012 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of incubation temperatures on embryonic development in the Asian yellow pond turtle

The Asian yellow pond turtle, Mauremys mutica (Cantor), is a potential aquaculture target in China owing to the higher values for food and remedy than other species of turtle. In this study, color and morphological changes of fertilized eggs were observed during embryogenesis, and the effects of incubation temperature on embryonic development were analyzed. Both calcium layer and membrane layer are thicker in the middle portion of egg-shell than that in the terminal portion, and become thinner after embryo hatching than before embryonic development. Significant change in the white spot and subsequent white ring on the eggshell occurs during embryonic development. Of five different incubation temperatures used to investigate the effects of incubation temperatures on embryonic development, 29.0 +/- 0.5 degrees C was optimal for embryo survival and development. Moreover, the incubation temperature of 33.0 +/- 0.5 degrees C was harmful effect to embryonic development. The data provide important and useful information for husbandry and management of the Asian yellow pond turtle. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.