Effect of patient accrual patterns on power and size of log-rank test for time-to-event outcome in clinical trials

The determination of size as well as power of a test is a vital part of a Clinical Trial Design. This research focuses on the simulation of clinical trial data with time-to-event as the primary outcome. It investigates the impact of different recruitment patterns, and time dependent hazard structures on size and power of the log-rank test. A non-homogeneous Poisson process is used to simulate entry times according to the different accrual patterns. A Weibull distribution is employed to simulate survival times according to the different hazard structures. The current study utilizes simulation methods to evaluate the effect of different recruitment patterns on size and power estimates of the log-rank test. The size of the log-rank test is estimated by simulating survival times with identical hazard rates between the treatment and the control arm of the study resulting in a hazard ratio of one. Powers of the log-rank test at specific values of hazard ratio (≠1) are estimated by simulating survival times with different, but proportional hazard rates for the two arms of the study. Different shapes (constant, decreasing, or increasing) of the hazard function of the Weibull distribution are also considered to assess the effect of hazard structure on the size and power of the log-rank test. ^

Paleomagnetic of the Cobb Mountin event sections

Detailed paleomagnetic investigations are reported for 283 specimens, sampled from three closely spaced Ocean Drilling Program Leg 135 cores from the Lau Basin. These specimens cover three rather similar records of the reversed Cobb Mountain short polarity event, having an age of about 1.12 m.y. On the basis of a very detailed subsampling every 0.6 cm, we found that the transition times for the Cobb Mountain geomagnetic polarity event, as seen in the three Lau Basin sediment records, appear to have been as short as 0.6-1.0 k.y., although the duration of the normal-polarity event itself lasted only about 17 ± 4 k.y. The older (R to N) transition as well as the younger (N to R) transition show virtual geomagnetic paths roughly along the Americas, but shifted some 30° ± 10° to the east. These paths conflict with Cobb Mountain transition paths recorded in sediments from the Labrador Sea and the North Atlantic, but they are in fair accordance with sediment records from the Celebes and Sulu seas when corrected for differences in site longitude, suggesting that the transitional fields are dominated by nonaxial, high-order spherical harmonics.

The Cenomanian/Turronian Boundary Event at ODP Hole 103-641A

Drilling at ODP Site 641 (on the western margin of Galicia Bank, off northwestern Spain) revealed a thin, but pronounced, interval of black shale and gray-green claystone. Our high-resolution study combines the sedimentology, micropaleontology (palynomorphs and others), organic and inorganic geochemistry, and isotopic values of this layer to demonstrate the distinct nature of the sediment and prove that the sequence represents the local sedimentary expression of the global Cenomanian/Turonian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE) of Schlanger and Jenkyns (1976), Arthur and Schlanger (1979), and Jenkyns (1980), also called the Cenomanian/Turonian Boundary Event (CTBE). The most striking evidence is that the strong positive d13C excursion characterizing the CTBE sequences in shallow areas can be traced into a pronounced deep-sea expression, thus providing a good stratigraphic marker for the CTBE in various paleosettings. The isotopic excursion at Site 641 coincides with an extremely enriched trace metal content, with values that were previously unknown for the Cretaceous Atlantic. Similar to other CTBE occurrences, the organic carbon content is high (up to 11%) and the organic matter is of dominantly marine origin (kerogen type II). The bulk mineralogy of the CTBE sediments does not differ significantly from the general trend of Cretaceous North Atlantic sediments (dominance of smectite and zeolite with minor amounts of illite and scattered palygorskite, kaolinite, and chlorite); thus, no evidence for either increased volcanic activity nor a drastic climatic change in the borderlands was found. Results from Site 641 are compared with the CTBE section found at Site 398, DSDP Leg 47B (Vigo Seamount at the southern end of the Galicia Bank).

Tab. 1 Mole % CO2 and 13C values of CO2 at baseline and at the final monitoring event for the eight observation wells

During CO2 storage operations in mature oilfields or saline aquifers it is desirable to trace the movement of injected CO2 for verification and safety purposes. We demonstrate the successful use of carbon isotope abundance ratios for tracing the movement of CO2 injected at the Cardium CO2 Storage Monitoring project in Alberta between 2005 and 2007. Injected CO2 had a d13C value of -4.6±1.1 per mil that was more than 10 per mil higher than the carbon isotope ratios of casing gas CO2 prior to CO2 injection with average d13C values ranging from -15.9 to -23.5 per mil. After commencement of CO2 injection, d13C values of casing gas CO2 increased in all observation wells towards those of the injected CO2 consistent with a two-source end-member mixing model. At four wells located in a NE-SW trend with respect to the injection wells, breakthrough of injected CO2 was registered chemically (>50 mol % CO2) and isotopically 1-6 months after commencement of CO2 injection resulting in cumulative CO2 fluxes exceeding 100000 m**3 during the observation period. At four other wells, casing gas CO2 contents remained below 5 mol % resulting in low cumulative CO2 fluxes (<2000 m**3) throughout the entire observation period, but carbon isotope ratios indicated contributions between <30 and 80% of injected CO2. Therefore, we conclude that monitoring the movement of CO2 in the injection reservoir with geochemical and isotopic techniques is an effective approach to determine plume expansion and to identify potential preferential flow paths provided that the isotopic composition of injected CO2 is constant and distinct from that of baseline CO2.

Paleomegnetic and geochemistry of sediments from the early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event

The early Aptian Oceanic Anoxic Event (OAE1a, 120 Ma) represents a geologically brief time interval in the mid-Cretaceous greenhouse world that is characterized by increased organic carbon accumulation in marine sediments, sudden biotic changes, and abrupt carbon-isotope excursions indicative of significant perturbations to global carbon cycling. The brevity of these drastic environmental changes (< 10**6 year) and the typically 10**6 year temporal resolution of the available chronologies, however, represent a critical gap in our knowledge of OAE1a. We have conducted a high-resolution investigation of three widely distributed sections, including the Cismon APTICORE in Italy, Santa Rosa Canyon in northeastern Mexico, and Deep Sea Drilling Project (DSDP) Site 398 off the Iberian margin in the North Atlantic Ocean, which represent a range of depositional environments where condensed and moderately expanded OAE1a intervals are recorded. The objectives of this study are to establish orbital chronologies for these sections and to construct a common, high-resolution timescale for OAE1a. Spectral analyses of the closely-spaced (corresponding to ~5 to 10 kyr) measurements of calcium carbonate content of the APTICORE, magnetic susceptibility (MS) and anhysteretic remanent magnetization (ARM) of the Santa Rosa samples, and MS, ARM and ARM/IRM, where IRM is isothermal remanent magnetization, of Site 398 samples reveal statistically significant cycles. These cycles exhibit periodicity ratios and modulation patterns similar to those of the mid-Cretaceous orbital cycles, suggesting that orbital variations may have modulated depositional processes. Orbital control allows us to estimate the duration of unique, globally identifiable stages of OAE1a. Although OAE1a had a duration of ~1.0 to 1.3 Myr, the initial perturbation represented by the negative carbon-isotope excursion was rapid, lasting for ~27-44 kyr. This estimate could serve as a basis for constraining triggering mechanisms for OAE1a.

Micro-facies and µXRF element scanning data of Dead Sea sediment cores DSEn and 5017-1

Laminated lake sediments from the Dead Sea basin provide high-resolution records of climatic variability in the eastern Mediterranean region, which is especially sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In this study, we aim on detailed reconstruction of climatic fluctuations and related changes in the frequency of flood and dust deposition events at ca. 3300 and especially at 2800 cal. yr BP from high-resolution sediment records of the Dead Sea basin. A ca. 4-m-thick, mostly varved sediment section from the western margin of the Dead Sea (DSEn - Ein Gedi profile) was analysed and correlated to the new International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project core 5017-1 from the deep basin. To detect even single event layers, we applied a multi-proxy approach of high-resolution microscopic thin section analyses, micro-X-ray fluorescence (µ-XRF) element scanning and magnetic susceptibility measurements, supported by grain size data and palynological analyses. Based on radiocarbon and varve dating, two pronounced dry periods were detected at ~3500-3300 and ~3000-2400 cal. yr BP which are differently expressed in the sediment records. In the shallow-water core (DSEn), the older dry period is characterised by a thick sand deposit, whereas the sedimentological change at 2800 cal. yr BP is less pronounced and characterised mainly by an enhanced frequency of coarse detrital layers interpreted as erosion events. In the 5017-1 deep-basin core, both dry periods are depicted by halite deposits. The onset of the younger dry period coincides with the Homeric Grand Solar Minimum at ca. 2800 cal. yr BP. Our results suggest that during this period, the Dead Sea region experienced an overall dry climate, superimposed by an increased occurrence of flash floods caused by a change in synoptic weather patterns.

Minimum water input event for seedling emergence of three native perennial grasses of the Central Monte desert (Argentina) influenced by the effect of shade and the season of the year

In deserts, seedling emergence occurs only after precipitation threshold has been exceeded, however, the presence of trees modifies microenvironmental conditions that might affect the effectiveness of a water pulse. In the Monte desert, Prosopis flexuosa trees generate different micro-environmental conditions that might influence grass seedlings establishment. The objective of this work was: a) to know the effective minimum water input event that triggers the emergence of native perennial grass seedlings; b) to relate this fact with the effect of the shade of P. flexuosa canopy and the seasonal temperatures. Three important forage species of the Monte were studied: Pappophorum caespitosum and Trichloris crinita, with C4, and Jarava ichu, with C3 metabolism. Each season, seeds of these species were sown in pots placed at two light conditions: shade (similar to P. flexuosa cover) and open area, and with seven irrigation treatments (0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 2*10 and 3*10 mm). J. ichu did not emerge in any of the treatments. Significant seedling emergence was registered for P. caespitosum and T. crinita in shade conditions with 40 mm irrigation treatment in summer. Since 40 mm precipitation events are infrequent in the Monte, seedling emergence for these species would be restricted to exceptional rainy years. The facilitating effect of P. flexuosa shade would be important during the hot season.

Distribution of organic carbon in surface sediments covered during SONNE cruise SO184

Sediments were sampled and oxygen profiles of the water column were determined in the Indian Ocean off west and south Indonesia in order to obtain information on the production, transformation, and accumulation of organic matter (OM). The stable carbon isotope composition (d13Corg) in combination with C/N ratios depicts the almost exclusively marine origin of sedimentary organic matter in the entire study area. Maximum concentrations of organic carbon (Corg) and nitrogen (N) of 3.0% and 0.31%, respectively, were observed in the northern Mentawai Basin and in the Savu and Lombok basins. Minimum d15N values of 3.7 per mil were measured in the northern Mentawai Basin, whereas they varied around 5.4 per mil at stations outside this region. Minimum bottom water oxygen concentrations of 1.1 mL L**1, corresponding to an oxygen saturation of 16.1%, indicate reduced ventilation of bottom water in the northern Mentawai Basin. This low bottom water oxygen reduces organic matter decomposition, which is demonstrated by the almost unaltered isotopic composition of nitrogen during early diagenesis. Maximum Corg accumulation rates (CARs) were measured in the Lombok (10.4 g C m**-2 yr**-1) and northern Mentawai basins (5.2 g C m**-2 yr**-1). Upwelling-induced high productivity is responsible for the high CAR off East Java, Lombok, and Savu Basins, while a better OM preservation caused by reduced ventilation contributes to the high CAR observed in the northern Mentawai Basin. The interplay between primary production, remineralisation, and organic carbon burial determines the regional heterogeneity. CAR in the Indian Ocean upwelling region off Indonesia is lower than in the Peru and Chile upwellings, but in the same order of magnitude as in the Arabian Sea, the Benguela, and Gulf of California upwellings, and corresponds to 0.1-7.1% of the global ocean carbon burial. This demonstrates the relevance of the Indian Ocean margin off Indonesia for the global OM burial.

Cenomanian/Turonian sea surface temperatures of the equatorial Atlantic reconstructed from geochemical data

Oceanic anoxic event 2 (OAE-2) occurring during the Cenomanian/Turonian (C/T) transition is evident from a globally recognized positive stable carbon isotopic excursion and is thought to represent one of the most extreme carbon cycle perturbations of the last 100 Myr. However, the impact of this major perturbation on and interaction with global climate remains unclear. Here we report new high-resolution records of sea surface temperature (SST) based on TEX86 and d 18O of excellently preserved planktic foraminifera and stable organic carbon isotopes across the C/T transition from black shales located offshore Suriname/French Guiana (Demerara Rise, Ocean Drilling Program Leg 207 Site 1260) and offshore Senegal (Cape Verde Basin, Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 41 Site 367). At Site 1260, where both SST proxy records can be determined, a good match between conservative SST estimates from TEX86 and d 18O is observed. We find that late Cenomanian SSTs in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean (33°C) were substantially warmer than today (27°-29°C) and that the onset of OAE-2 coincided with a rapid shift to an even warmer (35°-36°C) regime. Within the early stages of the OAE a marked (4°C) cooling to temperatures lower than pre-OAE conditions is observed. However, well before the termination of OAE-2 the warm regime was reestablished and persisted into the Turonian. Our findings corroborate the view that the C/T transition represents the onset of the interval of peak Cretaceous warmth. More importantly, they are consistent with the hypotheses that mid-Cretaceous warmth can be attributed to high levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and that major OAEs were capable of triggering global cooling through the negative feedback effect of organic carbon-burial-led CO2 sequestration. Evidently, however, the factors that gave rise to the observed shift to a warmer climate regime at the onset of OAE-2 were sufficiently powerful that they were only briefly counterbalanced by the high rates of carbon burial attained during even the most extreme interval of organic carbon burial in the last 100 Myr.

Fatty acid composition, element concentration and isotope ratios of sea ice algae sampled in Rijpfjorden, Svalbard

The accelerating decrease of Arctic sea ice substantially changes the growth conditions for primary producers, particularly with respect to light. This affects the biochemical composition of sea ice algae, which are an essential high-quality food source for herbivores early in the season. Their high nutritional value is related to their content of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs), which play an important role for successful maturation, egg production, hatching and nauplii development in grazers. We followed the fatty acid composition of an assemblage of sea ice algae in a high Arctic fjord during spring from the early bloom stage to post bloom. Light conditions proved to be decisive in determining the nutritional quality of sea ice algae, and irradiance was negatively correlated with the relative amount of PUFAs. Algal PUFA content decreased on average by 40 % from April to June, while algal biomass (measured as particulate carbon, C) did not differ. This decrease was even more pronounced when algae were exposed to higher irradiances due to reduced snow cover. The ratio of chlorophyll a (chl a) to C, as well as the level of photoprotective pigments, confirmed a physiological adaptation to higher light levels in algae of poorer nutritional quality. We conclude that high irradiances are detrimental to sea ice algal food quality, and that the biochemical composition of sea ice algae is strongly dependent on growth conditions.