992 resultados para Fitted densities


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A new approach to dengue vector surveillance based on permanent egg-collection using a modified ovitrap and Bacillus thuringiensis israelensis(Bti) was evaluated in different urban landscapes in Recife, Northeast Brazil. From April 2004 to April 2005, 13 egg-collection cycles of four weeks were carried out. Geo-referenced ovitraps containing grass infusion, Bti and three paddles were placed at fixed sampling stations distributed over five selected sites. Continuous egg-collections yielded more than four million eggs laid into 464 sentinel-ovitraps over one year. The overall positive ovitrap index was 98.5% (over 5,616 trap observations). The egg density index ranged from 100 to 2,500 eggs per trap-cycle, indicating a wide spread and high density of Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) breeding populations in all sites. Fluctuations in population density over time were observed, particularly a marked increase from January on, or later, according to site. Massive egg-collection carried out at one of the sites prevented such a population outbreak. At intra-site level, egg counts made it possible to identify spots where the vector population is consistently concentrated over the time, pinpointing areas that should be considered high priority for control activities. The results indicate that these could be promising strategies for detecting and preventing Ae. aegypti population outbreaks.

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En el relativament breu lapse de temps que suposen les tres darreres dècades, l'art contemporani xinès ha passat de ser pràcticament invisible i desconegut per al públic general, a ser present en un gran nombre d'escenaris a nivell internacional relacionats amb el món de l'art, sobre tot des de finals de la dècada dels noranta. El present TdR ha intentat apropar-se a qüestions com la imatge i les idees que sobre la RP Xina s'han transmès en l'última dècada a través de les obres o de les accions dels artistes xinesos contemporanis més exposats o cotitzats internacionalment i que viuen a la Xina, i a com s'ha arribat a inserir la producció artística d'aquests autors en el procés de globalització i hibridació de la cultura que estem vivint. Hem delimitat el camp de recerca, bàsicament a l'estudi de l'obra de cinc autors (Song Dong, Ai Weiwei, Zeng Fanzhi, Yue Minjun i Wang Qingsong) i a la seva presència en l'escena internacional de l'art contemporani a través de les subhastes de les dues cases més importants del món, Christie's i Sotheby's.

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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) within the first 48 hours of intensive care unit (ICU) stay has been poorly investigated. The objective was to estimate early-onset VAP occurrence in ICUs within 48 hours after admission. METHODS: We analyzed data from prospective surveillance between 01/01/2001 and 31/12/2009 in 11 ICUs of Lyon hospitals (France). The inclusion criteria were: first ICU admission, not hospitalized before admission, invasive mechanical ventilation during first ICU day, free of antibiotics at admission, and ICU stay >=48 hours. VAP was defined according to a national protocol. Its incidence was the number of events per 1,000 invasive mechanical ventilation-days. The Poisson regression model was fitted from day 2 (D2) to D8 to incident VAP to estimate the expected VAP incidence from D0 to D1 of ICU stay. RESULTS: Totally, 367 (10.8%) of 3,387 patients in 45,760 patient-days developed VAP within the first 9 days. The predicted cumulative VAP incidence at D0 and D1 was 5.3 (2.6-9.8) and 8.3 (6.1-11.1), respectively. The predicted cumulative VAP incidence was 23.0 (20.8-25.3) at D8. The proportion of missed VAP within 48 hours from admission was 11% (9%-17%). CONCLUSIONS: Our study indicates underestimation of early-onset VAP incidence in ICUs, if only VAP occurring [greater than or equal to]48 hours is considered to be hospital-acquired. Clinicians should be encouraged to develop a strategy for early detection after ICU admission.

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Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

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This article discusses the lessons learned from developing and delivering the Vocational Management Training for the European Tourism Industry (VocMat) online training programme, which was aimed at providing flexible, online distance learning for the European tourism industry. The programme was designed to address managers ‘need for flexible, senior management level training which they could access at a time and place which fitted in with their working and non-work commitments. The authors present two main approaches to using the Virtual Learning Environment, the feedback from the participants, and the implications of online Technology in extending tourism training opportunities

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Background. DNA-damage assays, quantifying the initial number of DNA double-strand breaks induced by radiation, have been proposed as a predictive test for radiation-induced toxicity. Determination of radiation-induced apoptosis in peripheral blood lymphocytes by flow cytometry analysis has also been proposed as an approach for predicting normal tissue responses following radiotherapy. The aim of the present study was to explore the association between initial DNA damage, estimated by the number of double-strand breaks induced by a given radiation dose, and the radio-induced apoptosis rates observed. Methods. Peripheral blood lymphocytes were taken from 26 consecutive patients with locally advanced breast carcinoma. Radiosensitivity of lymphocytes was quantified as the initial number of DNA double-strand breaks induced per Gy and per DNA unit (200 Mbp). Radio-induced apoptosis at 1, 2 and 8 Gy was measured by flow cytometry using annexin V/propidium iodide. Results. Radiation-induced apoptosis increased in order to radiation dose and data fitted to a semi logarithmic mathematical model. A positive correlation was found among radio-induced apoptosis values at different radiation doses: 1, 2 and 8 Gy (p < 0.0001 in all cases). Mean DSB/Gy/DNA unit obtained was 1.70 ± 0.83 (range 0.63-4.08; median, 1.46). A statistically significant inverse correlation was found between initial damage to DNA and radio-induced apoptosis at 1 Gy (p = 0.034). A trend toward 2 Gy (p = 0.057) and 8 Gy (p = 0.067) was observed after 24 hours of incubation. Conclusions. An inverse association was observed for the first time between these variables, both considered as predictive factors to radiation toxicity.

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Compositional data analysis motivated the introduction of a complete Euclidean structure in the simplex of D parts. This was based on the early work of J. Aitchison (1986) and completed recently when Aitchinson distance in the simplex was associated with an inner product and orthonormal bases were identified (Aitchison and others, 2002; Egozcue and others, 2003). A partition of the support of a random variable generates a composition by assigning the probability of each interval to a part of the composition. One can imagine that the partition can be refined and the probability density would represent a kind of continuous composition of probabilities in a simplex of infinitely many parts. This intuitive idea would lead to a Hilbert-space of probability densitiesby generalizing the Aitchison geometry for compositions in the simplex into the set probability densities

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The Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children-fourth edition (i.e. WISC-IV) recognizes a four-factor scoring structure in addition to the Full Scale IQ (FSIQ) score: Verbal Comprehension (VCI), Perceptual Reasoning (PRI), Working Memory (WMI), and Processing Speed (PSI) indices. However, several authors suggested that models based on the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) theory with 5 or 6 factors provided a better fit to the data than does the current four-factor solution. By comparing the current four-factor structure to CHC-based models, this research aimed to investigate the factorial structure and the constructs underlying the WISC-IV subtest scores with French-speaking Swiss children (N = 249). To deal with this goal, confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) were conducted. Results showed that a CHC-based model with five factors better fitted the French-Swiss data than did the current WISC-IV scoring structure. All together, these results support the hypothesis of the appropriateness of the CHC model with French-speaking children.

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Different outcomes of the effect of catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation on energy expenditure and fat oxidation have been reported in short-term studies. Therefore, a meta-analysis was conducted to elucidate whether catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation indeed increase thermogenesis and fat oxidation. First, English-language studies measuring daily energy expenditure and fat oxidation by means of respiration chambers after catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation were identified through PubMed. Six articles encompassing a total of 18 different conditions fitted the inclusion criteria. Second, results were aggregated using random/mixed-effects models and expressed in terms of the mean difference in 24 h energy expenditure and fat oxidation between the treatment and placebo conditions. Finally, the influence of moderators such as BMI and dosage on the results was examined as well. The catechin-caffeine mixtures and caffeine-only supplementation increased energy expenditure significantly over 24 h (428.0 kJ (4.7%); P < 0.001 and 429.1 kJ (4.8%); P < 0.001, respectively). However, 24 h fat oxidation was only increased by catechin-caffeine mixtures (12.2 g (16.0%); P < 0.02 and 9.5 g (12.4%); P = 0.11, respectively). A dose-response effect on 24 h energy expenditure and fat oxidation occurred with a mean increase of 0.53 kJ mg(-1) (P < 0.01) and 0.02 g mg(-1) (P < 0.05) for catechin-caffeine mixtures and 0.44 kJ mg(-1) (P < 0.001) and 0.01 g mg(-1) (P < 0.05) for caffeine-only. In conclusion, catechin-caffeine mixtures or a caffeine-only supplementation stimulates daily energy expenditure dose-dependently by 0.4-0.5 kJ mg(-1) administered. Compared with placebo, daily fat-oxidation was only significantly increased after catechin-caffeine mixtures ingestion.

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A myxosporean parasite in the gill lamellae of the freshwater teleost fish, Sciades herzbergii (Ariidae) (Block, 1794), from the Poti River (Northeast of Brazil) was described by light and electron microscopy studies. Polysporic histozoic cyst-like plasmodia containing several life-cycle stages, including mature spores, were observed. The spores were pyriform and uninucleate, measuring 9.15 ± 0.39 μm (n = 50) long, 4.36 ± 0.23 μm (n = 25) wide and 2.61 ± 0.31 μm (n = 25) thick. Elongated pyriform polar capsules (PC) were of equal size (4.44 ± 0.41 μm long and 1.41 ± 0.42 μm in diameter) and each contained a polar filament with 9-10 coils obliquely arranged in relation to the axis of PC. The PC wall was composed of two layers of different electron densities. Histological analysis revealed the close contact of the cyst-like plasmodia with the basal portion of the epithelial gill layer, which exhibited some alterations in the capillary vessels. Based on the morphological and ultrastructural differences, the similarity of the spore features to those of the genus Myxobolus and the specificity of this host to previously described species, we describe a new species named Myxobolus sciades n. sp. in this study.

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Molar heat capacities at constant pressure of six solid solutions and 11 intermediate phases in the Pd-Pb, Pd-Sn and Pd-In systems were determined each 10 K by differential scanning calorimetry from 310 to 1000 K, The experimental values have been fitted by polynomials C-p = a + bT + cT(2) + d/T-2. Results are given, discussed and compared with available literature data. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V, AII rights reserved.

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The composition of the labour force is an important economic factor for a country.Often the changes in proportions of different groups are of interest.I this paper we study a monthly compositional time series from the Swedish LabourForce Survey from 1994 to 2005. Three models are studied: the ILR-transformed series,the ILR-transformation of the compositional differenced series of order 1, and the ILRtransformationof the compositional differenced series of order 12. For each of thethree models a VAR-model is fitted based on the data 1994-2003. We predict the timeseries 15 steps ahead and calculate 95 % prediction regions. The predictions of thethree models are compared with actual values using MAD and MSE and the predictionregions are compared graphically in a ternary time series plot.We conclude that the first, and simplest, model possesses the best predictive power ofthe three models

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In Pseudomonas aeruginosa PAO1, the expression of several virulence factors such as elastase, rhamnolipids, and hydrogen cyanide depends on quorum-sensing regulation, which involves the lasRI and rhlRI systems controlled by N-(3-oxododecanoyl)-L-homoserine lactone and N-butyryl-L-homoserine lactone, respectively, as signal molecules. In rpoN mutants lacking the transcription factor sigma(54), the expression of the lasR and lasI genes was elevated at low cell densities, whereas expression of the rhlR and rhlI genes was markedly enhanced throughout growth by comparison with the wild type and the complemented mutant strains. As a consequence, the rpoN mutants had elevated levels of both signal molecules and overexpressed the biosynthetic genes for elastase, rhamnolipids, and hydrogen cyanide. The quorum-sensing regulatory protein QscR was not involved in the negative control exerted by RpoN. By contrast, in an rpoN mutant, the expression of the gacA global regulatory gene was significantly increased during the entire growth cycle, whereas another global regulatory gene, vfr, was downregulated at high cell densities. In conclusion, it appears that GacA levels play an important role, probably indirectly, in the RpoN-dependent modulation of the quorum-sensing machinery of P. aeruginosa.

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Photons participate in many atomic and molecular interactions and processes. Recent biophysical research has discovered an ultraweak radiation in biological tissues. It is now recognized that plants, animal and human cells emit this very weak biophotonic emission which can be readily measured with a sensitive photomultiplier system. UVA laser induced biophotonic emission of cultured cells was used in this report with the intention to detect biophysical changes between young and adult fibroblasts as well as between fibroblasts and keratinocytes. With suspension densities ranging from 1-8 x 106 cells/ml, it was evident that an increase of the UVA-laser-light induced photon emission intensity could be observed in young as well as adult fibroblastic cells. By the use of this method to determine ultraweak light emission, photons in cell suspensions in low volumes (100 microl) could be detected, in contrast to previous procedures using quantities up to 10 ml. Moreover, the analysis has been further refined by turning off the photomultiplier system electronically during irradiation leading to the first measurements of induced light emission in the cells after less than 10 micros instead of more than 100 milliseconds. These significant changes lead to an improvement factor up to 106 in comparison to classical detection procedures. In addition, different skin cells as fibroblasts and keratinocytes stemming from the same donor were measured using this new highly sensitive method in order to find new biophysical insight of light pathways. This is important in view to develop new strategies in biophotonics especially for use in alternative therapies.

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Various host-related factors have been reported as relevant risk factors for leprosy reactions. To support a new hypothesis that an antigenic load in local tissues that is sufficient to trigger the immune response may come from an external supply of Mycobacterium leprae organisms, the prevalence of reactional leprosy was assessed against the number of household contacts. The number of contacts was ascertained at diagnosis in leprosy patients coming from an endemic area of Brazil. The prevalence of reactions (patients with reactions/total patients) was fitted by binomial regression and the risk difference (RD) was estimated with a semi-robust estimation of variance as a measure of effect. Five regression models were fitted. Model 1 included only the main exposure variable "number of household contacts"; model 2 included all four explanatory variables ("contacts", "fertile age", "number of skin lesions" and "bacillary index") that were found to be associated with the outcome upon univariate analysis; models 3-5 contained various combinations of three predictors. Male and female patients were analyzed separately. In females, household contacts were a significant predictor for leprosy reactions in model 1 [crude RD = 0.06; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.01; 0.12] and model 5 (RD = 0.05; CI = 0.02; 0.09), which included contacts, bacillary index and skin lesions as predictors. Other models were unsatisfactory because the joint presence of fertile age and bacillary index was a likely source of multicollinearity. No significant results were obtained for males. The likely interpretation of our findings might suggest that in female patients, leprosy reactions may be triggered by an external spreading of M. leprae by healthy carrier family members. The small number of observations is an obvious limitation of our study which requires larger confirmatory studies.