Modelling and Analysis of Some Time Series

The thesis deals with some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a first order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. In this thesis some of the non-linear Gaussian and non-Gaussian time series models and mainly concentrated in studying the properties and application of a order autoregressive process with Cauchy marginal distribution. Time series relating to prices, consumptions, money in circulation, bank deposits and bank clearing, sales and profit in a departmental store, national income and foreign exchange reserves, prices and dividend of shares in a stock exchange etc. are examples of economic and business time series. The thesis discuses the application of a threshold autoregressive(TAR) model, try to fit this model to a time series data. Another important non-linear model is the ARCH model, and the third model is the TARCH model. The main objective here is to identify an appropriate model to a given set of data. The data considered are the daily coconut oil prices for a period of three years. Since it is a price data the consecutive prices may not be independent and hence a time series based model is more appropriate. In this study the properties like ergodicity, mixing property and time reversibility and also various estimation procedures used to estimate the unknown parameters of the process.

Time and cost overruns of industrial projects in kerala

Poor project planning, implementation and control and the subsequent cost and time overruns are ubiquitous features that have been posing serious concern at all levels - state, national and international. It results in wastage of the nation's scarce resources and retards the socio-economic progress. Although several studies peripheral on project overruns have been made at the national level, no serious attempt has been made at the state level to identify the magnitude of overruns, their causes and impacts on industrial projects. The present study "Time and Cost Overruns of Industrial Projects in Kerala" is an earnest attempt to probe in depth the time and cost overruns and their impact on industrial projects. The study places emphasise on the identification of the real reasons behind the cost and time overruns. It also covers the present project management practices of industrial projects in Kerala.

Economic Impact of Identity Theft in India: Lessons from Western Countries

In this computerized, globalised and internet world our computer collects various types of information’s about every human being and stores them in files secreted deep on its hard drive. Files like cache, browser history and other temporary Internet files can be used to store sensitive information like logins and passwords, names addresses, and even credit card numbers. Now, a hacker can get at this information by wrong means and share with someone else or can install some nasty software on your computer that will extract your sensitive and secret information. Identity Theft posses a very serious problem to everyone today. If you have a driver’s license, a bank account, a computer, ration card number, PAN card number, ATM card or simply a social security number you are more than at risk, you are a target. Whether you are new to the idea of ID Theft, or you have some unanswered questions, we’ve compiled a quick refresher list below that should bring you up to speed. Identity theft is a term used to refer to fraud that involves pretending to be someone else in order to steal money or get other benefits. Identity theft is a serious crime, which is increasing at tremendous rate all over the world after the Internet evolution. There is widespread agreement that identity theft causes financial damage to consumers, lending institutions, retail establishments, and the economy as a whole. Surprisingly, there is little good public information available about the scope of the crime and the actual damages it inflicts. Accounts of identity theft in recent mass media and in film or literature have centered on the exploits of 'hackers' - variously lauded or reviled - who are depicted as cleverly subverting corporate firewalls or other data protection defenses to gain unauthorized access to credit card details, personnel records and other information. Reality is more complicated, with electronic identity fraud taking a range of forms. The impact of those forms is not necessarily quantifiable as a financial loss; it can involve intangible damage to reputation, time spent dealing with disinformation and exclusion from particular services because a stolen name has been used improperly. Overall we can consider electronic networks as an enabler for identity theft, with the thief for example gaining information online for action offline and the basis for theft or other injury online. As Fisher pointed out "These new forms of hightech identity and securities fraud pose serious risks to investors and brokerage firms across the globe," I am a victim of identity theft. Being a victim of identity theft I felt the need for creating an awareness among the computer and internet users particularly youngsters in India. Nearly 70 per cent of Indian‘s population are living in villages. Government of India already started providing computer and internet facilities even to the remote villages through various rural development and rural upliftment programmes. Highly educated people, established companies, world famous financial institutions are becoming victim of identity theft. The question here is how vulnerable the illiterate and innocent rural people are if they suddenly exposed to a new device through which some one can extract and exploit their personal data without their knowledge? In this research work an attempt has been made to bring out the real problems associated with Identity theft in developed countries from an economist point of view.

Gender and Space in Tehran

Abstract: This dissertation generally concentrates on the relationships between “gender” and “space” in the present time of urban life in capital city of Tehran. “Gender” as a changing social construct, differentiated within societies and through time, studied this time by investigation on “gender attitude” or “gender identity” means attitudes towards “gender” issues regarding Tehran residences. “Space” as a concept integrated from physical and social constituents investigated through focus on “spatial attitude” means attitudes towards using “living spaces” including private space of “house”, semi private semi public space of neighborhood and finally public spaces of the city. “Activities and practices” in space concentrated instead of “physical” space; this perspective to “space” discussed as the most justified implication of “space” in this debate regarding current situations in city of Tehran. Under a systematic approach, the interactions and interconnections between “gender” and “space” as two constituent variables of social organization investigated by focus on the different associations presented between different “gender identities” and their different “spatial identities”; in fact, “spatial identity” manifests “gender identity” and in opposite direction, “spatial identity” influences to construction of “gender identity”. The hypotheses of case study in Tehran defined as followed: • “Gender identity” is reflected on “spatial identity”. Various “gender identities” in Tehran present different perspectives of “space” or they identify “space” by different values. • As “gender identity” internalizes patriarchal oppression, it internalizes associated “spatial” oppression too. • Within the same social class, different “gender identities” related to men and women, present interconnected qualities, compared with “gender identities” related to men or women of different social classes. This situation could be found in the “spatial” perspectives of different groups of men and women too. • Following the upper hypotheses, “spatial” oppression differs among social classes of Tehran living in different parts of this city. This research undertook a qualitative study in Tehran by interviewing with different parents of both young daughter and son regarding their attitudes towards gender issues from one side and activities and behaviors of their children in different spaces from the other side. Results of case study indicated the parallel changes of parents’ attitudes towards “gender” and “spatial” issues; it means strong connection between “gender” and “space”. It revealed association of “equal” spatial attitudes with “open, neutral” gender attitudes, and also the association of “biased, unequal” spatial identities with “conservative patriarchal” gender identities. It was cleared too that this variable concept – gender space - changes by “sex”; mothers comparing fathers presented more equitable notions towards “gender spatial” issues. It changes too by “social class” and “educational level”, that means “gender spatial” identity getting more open equitable among more educated people of middle and upper classes. “Breadwinning status in the family” also presents its effect on the changes of “gender spatial” identity so participant breadwinners in the family expressed relatively more equitable notions comparing householders and housekeepers. And finally, “gender spatial” identity changes through “place” in the city and regarding South – North line of the city. The illustration of changes of “gender spatial” identity from “open” to “conservative” among society indicated not only vertical variation across social classes, furthermore the horizontal changing among each social class. These results also confirmed hypotheses while made precision on the third one regarding variable of sex. More investigations pointed to some inclusive spatial attitudes throughout society penetrated to different groups of “gender identities”, to “opens” as to “conservatives”, also to groups between them, by two opposite features; first kind, conservative biased spatial practices in favor of patriarchal gender relations and the second, progressive neutral actions in favor of equal gender relations. While the major reason for the inclusive conservative practices was referred to the social insecurity for women, the second neutral ones associated to more formal & safer spaces of the city. In conclusion, while both trends are associated deeply with the important issues of “sex” & “body” in patriarchal thoughts, still strong, they are the consequences of the transitional period of social change in macro level, and the challenges involved regarding interactions between social orders, between old system of patriarchy, the traditional biased “gender spatial” relations and the new one of equal relations. The case study drew an inhomogeneous illustration regarding gender spatial aspects of life in Tehran, the opposite groups of “open” and “conservative”, and the large group of “semi open semi conservative” between them. In macro perspective it presents contradicted social groups according their general life styles; they are the manifestations of challenging trends towards tradition and modernity in Iranian society. This illustration while presents unstable social situations, necessitates probing solutions for social integration; exploring the directions could make heterogeneous social groups close in the way they think and the form they live in spaces. Democratic approaches like participatory development planning might be helpful for the city in its way to more solidarity and sustainability regarding its social spatial – gender as well – development, in macro levels of social spatial planning and in micro levels of physical planning, in private space of house and in public spaces of the city.

Time patterns in UK demand for alcohol and tobacco: an application of the EM algorithm

Capturing the pattern of structural change is a relevant task in applied demand analysis, as consumer preferences may vary significantly over time. Filtering and smoothing techniques have recently played an increasingly relevant role. A dynamic Almost Ideal Demand System with random walk parameters is estimated in order to detect modifications in consumer habits and preferences, as well as changes in the behavioural response to prices and income. Systemwise estimation, consistent with the underlying constraints from economic theory, is achieved through the EM algorithm. The proposed model is applied to UK aggregate consumption of alcohol and tobacco, using quarterly data from 1963 to 2003. Increased alcohol consumption is explained by a preference shift, addictive behaviour and a lower price elasticity. The dynamic and time-varying specification is consistent with the theoretical requirements imposed at each sample point. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reaching for the skies: Time and turbulence in digital technologies and practices

This research examines dynamics associated with new representational technologies in complex organizations through a study of the use of a Single Model Environment, prototyping and simulation tools in the mega-project to construct Terminal 5 at Heathrow Airport, London. The ambition of the client, BAA. was to change industrial practices reducing project costs and time to delivery through new contractual arrangements and new digitally-enabled collaborative ways of working. The research highlights changes over time and addresses two areas of 'turbulence' in the use of: 1) technologies, where there is a dynamic tension between desires to constantly improve, change and update digital technologies and the need to standardise practices, maintaining and defending the overall integrity of the system; and 2) representations, where dynamics result from the responsibilities and liabilities associated with sharing of digital representations and a lack of trust in the validity of data from other firms. These dynamics are tracked across three stages of this well-managed and innovative project and indicate the generic need to treat digital infrastructure as an ongoing strategic issue.

Lag-1 sparing in the attentional blink: benefits and costs of integrating two events into a single episode

When people monitor a visual stream of rapidly presented stimuli for two targets (T1 and T2), they often miss T2 if it falls into a time window of about half a second after T1 onset-the attentional blink. However, if T2 immediately follows T1, performance is often reported being as good as that at long lags-the so-called Lag-1 sparing effect. Two experiments investigated the mechanisms underlying this effect. Experiment 1 showed that, at Lag 1, requiring subjects to correctly report both identity and temporal order of targets produces relatively good performance on T2 but relatively bad performance on T1. Experiment 2 confirmed that subjects often confuse target order at short lags, especially if the two targets are equally easy to discriminate. Results suggest that, if two targets appear in close succession, they compete for attentional resources. If the two competitors are of unequal strength the stronger one is more likely to win and be reported at the expense of the other. If the two are equally strong, however, they will often be integrated into the same attentional episode and thus get both access to attentional resources. But this comes with a cost, as it eliminates information about the targets' temporal order.

Low-lying excited states and primary photoproducts of [Os-3(CO)(10)-(s-cis-L)] (L = cyclohexa-1,3-diene, buta-1,3-diene)] clusters studied by picosecond time-resolved UV/Vis and IR spectroscopy and by density functional theory

Combined picosecond transient absorption and time-resolved infrared studies were performed, aimed at characterising low-lying excited states of the cluster [Os-3(CO)(10)(s-cis-L)] (L= cyclohexa-1,3-diene, 1) and monitoring the formation of its photoproducts. Theoretical (DFT and TD-DFT) calculations on the closely related cluster with L=buta-1,3-diene (2') have revealed that the low-lying electronic transitions of these [Os-3(CO)(10)(s-cis-1,3-diene)] clusters have a predominant sigma(core)pi*(CO) character. From the lowest sigmapi* excited state, cluster 1 undergoes fast Os-Os(1,3-diene) bond cleavage (tau=3.3 ps) resulting in the formation of a coordinatively unsaturated primary photoproduct (1a) with a single CO bridge. A new insight into the structure of the transient has been obtained by DFT calculations. The cleaved Os-Os(1,3-diene) bond is bridged by the donor 1,3-diene ligand, compensating for the electron deficiency at the neighbouring Os centre. Because of the unequal distribution of the electron density in transient la, a second CO bridge is formed in 20 ps in the photoproduct [Os-3(CO)(8)(mu-CO)(2)- (cyclohexa-1,3-diene)] (1b). The latter compound, absorbing strongly around 630 nm, mainly regenerates the parent cluster with a lifetime of about 100 ns in hexane. Its structure, as suggested by the DFT calculations, again contains the 1,3-diene ligand coordinated in a bridging fashion. Photoproduct 1b can therefore be assigned as a high-energy coordination isomer of the parent cluster with all Os-Os bonds bridged.

Thessaly and Macedon at Delphi

The Daochos Monument at Delphi has received some scholarly attention from an art-historical and archaeological perspective; this article, however, examines it rather as a reflection of contemporary Thessalian history and discourse, an aspect which has been almost entirely neglected. Through its visual imagery and its inscriptions, the monument adopts and adapts long-standing Thessalian themes of governance and identity, and achieves a delicate balance with Macedonian concerns to forge a symbolic rapprochement between powers and cultures in the Greek north. Its dedicator, Daochos, emerges as far more than just the puppet of Philip II of Macedon. This hostile and largely Demosthenic characterisation, which remains influential even in modern historiography, is far from adequate in allowing for an understanding of the relationship between Thessalian and Macedonian motivations at this time, or of the importance of Delphi as the pan-Hellenic setting of their interaction. Looking closely at the Daochos Monument instead allows for a rare glimpse into the Thessalian perspective in all its complexity.

Time and retribution

Retributivists believe that punishment can be deserved, and that deserved punishment is intrinsically good. They also believe that certain crimes deserve certain quantities of punishment. On the plausible assumption that the overall amount of any given punishment is a function of its severity and duration, we might think that retributivists (qua retributivists) would be indifferent as to whether a punishment were long and light or short and sharp, provided the offender gets the overall amount of punishment he deserves. In this paper I argue against this, showing that retributivists should actually prefer shorter and more severe punishments to longer, gentler options. I show this by focusing on, and developing a series of interpretations of, the retributivist claim that not punishing the guilty is bad, focussing on the relationship between that badness and time. I then show that each interpretation leads to a preference for shorter over longer punishment.

A molecular, morphological and cytological investigation of the identity of non-native Ludwigia (Onagraceae) populations in Britain

A combined molecular, morphological and cytological analysis was used to study the identity and number of species of Ludwigia section Oligospermum occurring in British waterways. Only one taxon was identified for which the name L. grandiflora subsp. hexapetala (Hook. & Arn.) G.L. Nesom & Kartesz is preferred. A chromosome count of 2n = 80 was made for all plants tested and DNA evidence demonstrates that at least two clones are present in Britain. Morphological characters to differentiate L.grandiflora subsp. hexapetala and L. peploides subsp. montevidensis (Spreng.) P.H. Raven are provided. Though the production of fruit in Britain by apparently isolated populations is noted, repeated introduction into the wild from gardens is judged to be primarily responsible for the British distribution of the taxon. Legislative implications are considered and an amendment to Schedule 9 of the UK Wildlife and Countryside Act (1981) is strongly advocated.

Categories, concepts and units: representing energy demand in and through time

Methods of data collection are unavoidably rooted in some sort of theoretical paradigm, and are inextricably tied to an implicit agenda or broad problem framing. These prior orientations are not always explicit, but they matter for what data is collected and how it is used. They also structure opportunities for asking new questions, for linking or bridging between existing data sets and they matter even more when data is re-purposed for uses not initially anticipated. In this paper we provide an historical and comparative review of the changing categories used in organising and collecting data on mobility/travel and time use as part of ongoing work to understand, conceptualise and describe the changing patterns of domestic and mobility related energy demand within UK society. This exercise reveals systematic differences of method and approach, for instance in units of measurement, in how issues of time/duration and periodicity are handled, and how these strategies relate to the questions such data is routinely used to address. It also points to more fundamental differences in how traditions of research into mobility, domestic energy and time use have developed. We end with a discussion of the practical implications of these diverse histories for understanding and analysing changing patterns of energy/mobility demand at different scales.

How reliable is internet-based self-reported identity, socio-demographic and obesity measures in European adults?

In e-health intervention studies, there are concerns about the reliability of internet-based, self-reported (SR) data and about the potential for identity fraud. This study introduced and tested a novel procedure for assessing the validity of internet-based, SR identity and validated anthropometric and demographic data via measurements performed face-to-face in a validation study (VS). Participants (n = 140) from seven European countries, participating in the Food4Me intervention study which aimed to test the efficacy of personalised nutrition approaches delivered via the internet, were invited to take part in the VS. Participants visited a research centre in each country within 2 weeks of providing SR data via the internet. Participants received detailed instructions on how to perform each measurement. Individual’s identity was checked visually and by repeated collection and analysis of buccal cell DNA for 33 genetic variants. Validation of identity using genomic information showed perfect concordance between SR and VS. Similar results were found for demographic data (age and sex verification). We observed strong intra-class correlation coefficients between SR and VS for anthropometric data (height 0.990, weight 0.994 and BMI 0.983). However, internet-based SR weight was under-reported (Δ −0.70 kg [−3.6 to 2.1], p < 0.0001) and, therefore, BMI was lower for SR data (Δ −0.29 kg m−2 [−1.5 to 1.0], p < 0.0001). BMI classification was correct in 93 % of cases. We demonstrate the utility of genotype information for detection of possible identity fraud in e-health studies and confirm the reliability of internet-based, SR anthropometric and demographic data collected in the Food4Me study.

Imagined Comrades and Imaginary Protections

This paper describes the recent development of identity and community among gay men in China. It focuses both on the ways emerging forms of gay identity relate to larger ideological and discursive shifts within society, and on the ways these new forms of identity and community affect situated social interaction among gay men themselves. In particular, it addresses the question of how these emerging forms of gay identity and gay community affect the ways gay men in China understand the threat of HIV and make concrete decisions about sexual risk and safety. Among the chief tactics used by gay men in China to forge identity and community involves appropriating and adapting elements from dominant discourses of the Party-State and the mass media. This strategy has opened up spaces within which gay men can claim “cultural citizenship” in a society in which they have been heretofore marginalized. At the same time, this strategy also implicated in the formation of attitudes and social practices that potentially increase the vunerability of Chinese gay men to HIV infection.