Failure rates modelling for heterogenous populations

Mixture of distributions, decreasing failure rate, increasing failure rate, proportional hazards model, accelerated life model, asymptotic behavior of mixture failure rate

Atrial Fibrillation Ablation in Systolic Dysfunction: Clinical and Echocardiographic Outcomes

Background:Heart failure and atrial fibrillation (AF) often coexist in a deleterious cycle.Objective:To evaluate the clinical and echocardiographic outcomes of patients with ventricular systolic dysfunction and AF treated with radiofrequency (RF) ablation.Methods:Patients with ventricular systolic dysfunction [ejection fraction (EF) <50%] and AF refractory to drug therapy underwent stepwise RF ablation in the same session with pulmonary vein isolation, ablation of AF nests and of residual atrial tachycardia, named "background tachycardia". Clinical (NYHA functional class) and echocardiographic (EF, left atrial diameter) data were compared (McNemar test and t test) before and after ablation.Results:31 patients (6 women, 25 men), aged 37 to 77 years (mean, 59.8±10.6), underwent RF ablation. The etiology was mainly idiopathic (19 p, 61%). During a mean follow-up of 20.3±17 months, 24 patients (77%) were in sinus rhythm, 11 (35%) being on amiodarone. Eight patients (26%) underwent more than one procedure (6 underwent 2 procedures, and 2 underwent 3 procedures). Significant NYHA functional class improvement was observed (pre-ablation: 2.23±0.56; postablation: 1.13±0.35; p<0.0001). The echocardiographic outcome also showed significant ventricular function improvement (EF pre: 44.68%±6.02%, post: 59%±13.2%, p=0.0005) and a significant left atrial diameter reduction (pre: 46.61±7.3 mm; post: 43.59±6.6 mm; p=0.026). No major complications occurred.Conclusion:Our findings suggest that AF ablation in patients with ventricular systolic dysfunction is a safe and highly effective procedure. Arrhythmia control has a great impact on ventricular function recovery and functional class improvement.

BNP was Associated with Ischemic Myocardial Scintigraphy and Death in Patients at Chest Pain Unit

Background:Recent studies have suggested that B-type Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) is an important predictor of ischemia and death in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. Increased levels of BNP are seen after episodes of myocardial ischemia and may be related to future adverse events.Objectives:To determine the prognostic value of BNP for major cardiac events and to evaluate its association with ischemic myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS).Methods:This study included retrospectively 125 patients admitted to the chest pain unit between 2002 and 2006, who had their BNP levels measured on admission and underwent CPM for risk stratification. BNP values were compared with the results of the MPS. The chi-square test was used for qualitative variables and the Student t test, for quantitative variables. Survival curves were adjusted using the Kaplan-Meier method and analyzed by using Cox regression. The significance level was 5%.Results:The mean age was 63.9 ± 13.8 years, and the male sex represented 51.2% of the sample. Ischemia was found in 44% of the MPS. The mean BNP level was higher in patients with ischemia compared to patients with non-ischemic MPS (188.3 ± 208.7 versus 131.8 ± 88.6; p = 0.003). A BNP level greater than 80 pg/mL was the strongest predictor of ischemia on MPS (sensitivity = 60%, specificity = 70%, accuracy = 66%, PPV = 61%, NPV = 70%), and could predict medium-term mortality (RR = 7.29, 95% CI: 0.90-58.6; p = 0.045) independently of the presence of ischemia.Conclusions:BNP levels are associated with ischemic MPS findings and adverse prognosis in patients presenting with acute chest pain to the emergency room, thus, providing important prognostic information for an unfavorable clinical outcome.

4-Second Exercise Test: Reference Values for Ages 18–81 Years

Background: Physiological reflexes modulated primarily by the vagus nerve allow the heart to decelerate and accelerate rapidly after a deep inspiration followed by rapid movement of the limbs. This is the physiological and pharmacologically validated basis for the 4-s exercise test (4sET) used to assess the vagal modulation of cardiac chronotropism. Objective: To present reference data for 4sET in healthy adults. Methods: After applying strict clinical inclusion/exclusion criteria, 1,605 healthy adults (61% men) aged between 18 and 81 years subjected to 4sET were evaluated between 1994 and 2014. Using 4sET, the cardiac vagal index (CVI) was obtained by calculating the ratio between the duration of two RR intervals in the electrocardiogram: 1) after a 4-s rapid and deep breath and immediately before pedaling and 2) at the end of a rapid and resistance-free 4-s pedaling exercise. Results: CVI varied inversely with age (r = -0.33, p < 0.01), and the intercepts and slopes of the linear regressions between CVI and age were similar for men and women (p > 0.05). Considering the heteroscedasticity and the asymmetry of the distribution of the CVI values according to age, we chose to express the reference values in percentiles for eight age groups (years): 18–30, 31–40, 41–45, 46–50, 51–55, 56–60, 61–65, and 66+, obtaining progressively lower median CVI values ranging from 1.63 to 1.24. Conclusion: The availability of CVI percentiles for different age groups should promote the clinical use of 4sET, which is a simple and safe procedure for the evaluation of vagal modulation of cardiac chronotropism.

Meta-Analysis of Ultrafiltration versus Diuretics Treatment Option for Overload Volume Reduction in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure

Introduction: Although diuretics are mainly used for the treatment of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF), inadequate responses and complications have led to the use of extracorporeal ultrafiltration (UF) as an alternative strategy for reducing volume overloads in patients with ADHF. Objective: The aim of our study is to perform meta-analysis of the results obtained from studies on extracorporeal venous ultrafiltration and compare them with those of standard diuretic treatment for overload volume reduction in acute decompensated heart failure. Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases were systematically searched using a pre‑specified criterion. Pooled estimates of outcomes after 48 h (weight change, serum creatinine level, and all-cause mortality) were computed using random effect models. Pooled weighted mean differences were calculated for weight loss and change in creatinine level, whereas a pooled risk ratio was used for the analysis of binary all-cause mortality outcome. Results: A total of nine studies, involving 613 patients, met the eligibility criteria. The mean weight loss in patients who underwent UF therapy was 1.78 kg [95% Confidence Interval (CI): −2.65 to −0.91 kg; p < 0.001) more than those who received standard diuretic therapy. The post-intervention creatinine level, however, was not significantly different (mean change = −0.25 mg/dL; 95% CI: −0.56 to 0.06 mg/dL; p = 0.112). The risk of all-cause mortality persisted in patients treated with UF compared with patients treated with standard diuretics (Pooled RR = 1.00; 95% CI: 0.64–1.56; p = 0.993). Conclusion: Compared with standard diuretic therapy, UF treatment for overload volume reduction in individuals suffering from ADHF, resulted in significant reduction of body weight within 48 h. However, no significant decrease of serum creatinine level or reduction of all-cause mortality was observed.

I Brazilian Registry of Heart Failure - Clinical Aspects, Care Quality and Hospitalization Outcomes

Background:Heart failure (HF) is one of the leading causes of hospitalization in adults in Brazil. However, most of the available data is limited to unicenter registries. The BREATHE registry is the first to include a large sample of hospitalized patients with decompensated HF from different regions in Brazil.Objective:Describe the clinical characteristics, treatment and prognosis of hospitalized patients admitted with acute HF.Methods:Observational registry study with longitudinal follow-up. The eligibility criteria included patients older than 18 years with a definitive diagnosis of HF, admitted to public or private hospitals. Assessed outcomes included the causes of decompensation, use of medications, care quality indicators, hemodynamic profile and intrahospital events.Results:A total of 1,263 patients (64±16 years, 60% women) were included from 51 centers from different regions in Brazil. The most common comorbidities were hypertension (70.8%), dyslipidemia (36.7%) and diabetes (34%). Around 40% of the patients had normal left ventricular systolic function and most were admitted with a wet-warm clinical-hemodynamic profile. Vasodilators and intravenous inotropes were used in less than 15% of the studied cohort. Care quality indicators based on hospital discharge recommendations were reached in less than 65% of the patients. Intrahospital mortality affected 12.6% of all patients included.Conclusion:The BREATHE study demonstrated the high intrahospital mortality of patients admitted with acute HF in Brazil, in addition to the low rate of prescription of drugs based on evidence.

Reverse Cardiac Remodeling: A Marker of Better Prognosis in Heart Failure

In heart failure syndrome, myocardial dysfunction causes an increase in neurohormonal activity, which is an adaptive and compensatory mechanism in response to the reduction in cardiac output. Neurohormonal activity is initially stimulated in an attempt to maintain compensation; however, when it remains increased, it contributes to the intensification of clinical manifestations and myocardial damage. Cardiac remodeling comprises changes in ventricular volume as well as the thickness and shape of the myocardial wall. With optimized treatment, such remodeling can be reversed, causing gradual improvement in cardiac function and consequently improved prognosis.

New Exercise-Dipyridamole Combined Test for Nuclear Cardiology in Insufficient Effort: Appropriate Diagnostic Sensitivity Keeping Exercise Prognosis

AbstractBackground:Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) in patients not reaching 85% of the maximum predicted heart rate (MPHR) has reduced sensitivity.Objectives:In an attempt to maintain diagnostic sensitivity without losing functional exercise data, a new exercise and dipyridamole combined protocol (EDCP) was developed. Our aim was to evaluate the feasibility and safety of this protocol and to compare its diagnostic sensitivity against standard exercise and dipyridamole protocols.Methods:In patients not reaching a sufficient exercise (SE) test and with no contraindications, 0.56 mg/kg of dipyridamole were IV administered over 1 minute simultaneously with exercise, followed by 99mTc-MIBI injection.Results:Of 155 patients, 41 had MPS with EDCP, 47 had a SE test (≥ 85% MPHR) and 67 underwent the dipyridamole alone test (DIP). They all underwent coronary angiography within 3 months. The three stress methods for diagnosis of coronary lesions had their sensitivity compared. For stenosis ≥ 70%, EDCP yielded 97% sensitivity, SE 90% and DIP 95% (p = 0.43). For lesions ≥ 50%, the sensitivities were 94%, 88% and 95%, respectively (p = 0.35). Side effects of EDCP were present in only 12% of the patients, significantly less than with DIP (p < 0.001).Conclusions:The proposed combined protocol is a valid and safe method that yields adequate diagnostic sensitivity, keeping exercise prognostic information in patients unable to reach target heart rate, with fewer side effects than the DIP.

Heart Failure with Preserved Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction

AbstractBackground:The prevalence and clinical outcomes of heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction after acute myocardial infarction have not been well elucidated.Objective:To analyze the prevalence of heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction in acute myocardial infarction and its association with mortality.Methods:Patients with acute myocardial infarction (n = 1,474) were prospectively included. Patients without heart failure (Killip score = 1), with heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (Killip score > 1 and left ventricle ejection fraction ≥ 50%), and with systolic dysfunction (Killip score > 1 and left ventricle ejection fraction < 50%) on admission were compared. The association between systolic dysfunction with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction and in-hospital mortality was tested in adjusted models.Results:Among the patients included, 1,256 (85.2%) were admitted without heart failure (72% men, 67 ± 15 years), 78 (5.3%) with heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (59% men, 76 ± 14 years), and 140 (9.5%) with systolic dysfunction (69% men, 76 ± 14 years), with mortality rates of 4.3%, 17.9%, and 27.1%, respectively (p < 0.001). Logistic regression (adjusted for sex, age, troponin, diabetes, and body mass index) demonstrated that heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction (OR 2.91; 95% CI 1.35–6.27; p = 0.006) and systolic dysfunction (OR 5.38; 95% CI 3.10 to 9.32; p < 0.001) were associated with in-hospital mortality.Conclusion:One-third of patients with acute myocardial infarction admitted with heart failure had preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Although this subgroup exhibited more favorable outcomes than those with systolic dysfunction, this condition presented a three-fold higher risk of death than the group without heart failure. Patients with acute myocardial infarction and heart failure with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction encounter elevated short-term risk and require special attention and monitoring during hospitalization.

Testosterone Deficiency Increases Hospital Readmission and Mortality Rates in Male Patients with Heart Failure

Background:Testosterone deficiency in patients with heart failure (HF) is associated with decreased exercise capacity and mortality; however, its impact on hospital readmission rate is uncertain. Furthermore, the relationship between testosterone deficiency and sympathetic activation is unknown.Objective:We investigated the role of testosterone level on hospital readmission and mortality rates as well as sympathetic nerve activity in patients with HF.Methods:Total testosterone (TT) and free testosterone (FT) were measured in 110 hospitalized male patients with a left ventricular ejection fraction < 45% and New York Heart Association classification IV. The patients were placed into low testosterone (LT; n = 66) and normal testosterone (NT; n = 44) groups. Hypogonadism was defined as TT < 300 ng/dL and FT < 131 pmol/L. Muscle sympathetic nerve activity (MSNA) was recorded by microneurography in a subpopulation of 27 patients.Results:Length of hospital stay was longer in the LT group compared to in the NT group (37 ± 4 vs. 25 ± 4 days; p = 0.008). Similarly, the cumulative hazard of readmission within 1 year was greater in the LT group compared to in the NT group (44% vs. 22%, p = 0.001). In the single-predictor analysis, TT (hazard ratio [HR], 2.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.58–4.85; p = 0.02) predicted hospital readmission within 90 days. In addition, TT (HR, 4.65; 95% CI, 2.67–8.10; p = 0.009) and readmission within 90 days (HR, 3.27; 95% CI, 1.23–8.69; p = 0.02) predicted increased mortality. Neurohumoral activation, as estimated by MSNA, was significantly higher in the LT group compared to in the NT group (65 ± 3 vs. 51 ± 4 bursts/100 heart beats; p < 0.001).Conclusion:These results support the concept that LT is an independent risk factor for hospital readmission within 90 days and increased mortality in patients with HF. Furthermore, increased MSNA was observed in patients with LT.