Desenvolupament de codis numèrics per a la resolució de fluxos turbulents en ordinadors paral·lels emprant discretitzacions tipus symmetry-preserving

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a la University of Groningen, Holanda, entre 2007 i 2009. La simulació directa de la turbulència (DNS) és una eina clau dins de la mecànica de fluids computacional. Per una banda permet conèixer millor la física de la turbulència i per l'altra els resultats obtinguts són claus per el desenvolupament dels models de turbulència. No obstant, el DNS no és una tècnica vàlida per a la gran majoria d'aplicacions industrials degut al elevats costos computacionals. Per tant, és necessari cert grau de modelització de la turbulència. En aquest context, s'han introduïts importants millores basades en la modelització del terme convectiu (no lineal) emprant symmetry-preserving regularizations. En tracta de modificar adequadament el terme convectiu a fi de reduir la producció d'escales més i més petites (vortex-stretching) tot mantenint tots els invariants de les equacions originals. Fins ara, aquest models s'han emprat amb èxit per nombres de Rayleigh (Ra) relativament elevats. En aquest punt, disposar de resultats DNS per a configuracions més complexes i nombres de Ra més elevats és clau. En aquest contexte, s'han dut a terme simulacions DNS en el supercomputador MareNostrum d'una Differentially Heated Cavity amb Ra=1e11 i Pr=0.71 durant el primer any dels dos que consta el projecte. A més a més, s'ha adaptat el codi a fi de poder simular el fluxe al voltant d'un cub sobre una pared amb Re=10000. Aquestes simulacions DNS són les més grans fetes fins ara per aquestes configuracions i la seva correcta modelització és un gran repte degut la complexitat dels fluxes. Aquestes noves simulacions DNS estan aportant nous coneixements a la física de la turbulència i aportant resultats indispensables per al progrés de les modelitzacións tipus symmetry-preserving regularization.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation support in acardia.

In extreme situations, such as hyperacute rejection of heart transplant or major heart trauma, heart preservation may not be possible. Our experimental team works on a project of peripheral extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support in acardia as a bridge to heart transplantation or artificial heart implantation. An ECMO support was established in five calves (58.6 ± 6.9 kg) by the transjugular insertion to the caval axis of a self-expanded cannula, with carotid artery return. After baseline measurements, ventricular fibrillation was induced, great arteries were clamped, heart was excised, and right and left atria remnants, containing pulmonary veins, were sutured together leaving an atrial septal defect over the caval axis cannula. Measurements of pump flow and arterial pressure were taken with the pulmonary artery clamped and anastomosed with the caval axis for a total of 6 hours. Pulmonary artery anastomosis to the caval axis provided an acceptable 6 hour hemodynamic stability, permitting a peripheral access ECMO support in extreme scenarios indicating a heart explantation.

Political Competition in Hard Times

This paper analyzes a spatial model of political competition between two policy- motivated parties in hard times of crisis. Hard times are modeled in terms of policy- making costs carried by a newly elected party. The results predict policy divergence in equilibrium. If the ideological preferences of parties are quite diverse and extreme, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce symmetric platforms and each party wins with probability one half. If one party is extreme while the other is more moderate, there is a unique equilibrium in which the parties announce asymmetric platforms. If the preferred policies of the parties are not very distinct, there are two equilibria with asymmetric platforms. An important property of equilibrium with asymmetric platforms is that a winning party necessarily announces its most preferred policy as a platform. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: Spatial model; Political competition; Two-party system; Policy-motivated parties; Hard times; Crisis.

Detection of Mycobacterium leprae DNA by polymerase chain reaction in the blood of individuals, eight years after completion of anti-leprosy therapy

Thirty eight patients with indeterminate leprosy (HI), at least 4 to 6 years after discharge from multibacillary (MB) or paucibacillary (PB) schemes of anti leprosy multidrug therapy (MDT), were submitted to traditional diagnostic procedures for leprosy and to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis of different clinical samples for detection of Mycobacterium leprae DNA. No significant difference was observed for any of the parameters analyzed between PB or MB schemes of treatment and no indications were found for more efficient outcome of HI using the MB scheme. Remarkably, 18 (54.5%) of the individuals were PCR positive in at least one of the samples: positivity of PCR was highest in blood samples and four individuals were PCR positive in blood and some other sample. Upon comparison of PCR results with clinical and histopathological parameters, no correlation was found between PCR-positivity and eventual relapse. This is the first report on detection of M. leprae DNA in PB patients, more than half a decade after completion of MDT, suggesting that live bacilli are present and circulating much longer than expected, although reinfection of the individuals can not be excluded. Overall, we feel that because of the high sensitivity of the assay, extreme care should be taken about association of PCR results, efficacy of treatment and disease status.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Lobbying as a Guard against Extremism

This paper analyzes endogenous lobbying over a unidimensional policy issue. Individuals differ in policy preferences and decide either to join one of two opposite interest lobbies or not to take part in lobbying activities. Once formed, lobbies make contributions to the incumbent government in exchange for a policy favor as in a common-agency model. An equilibrium occurs only if no lobby member would prefer his lobby to cease to exist. I show the existence of an equilibrium with two organized lobbies. Individuals with more extreme preferences are more likely to join lobbying activities. Therefore, the lobbyists are rather extremists than moderates. However, the competition between those extreme lobbies results in a more moderate policy outcome relative to that initially preferred by the pro- or anti-policy government. Lobbies therefore guard against extremism, while acting as moderators of the government's preferences. JEL classification: D72. Keywords: common agency; endogenous lobbying; extremism.

Changes in wage structure in Mexico going beyond the mean: An analysis of differences in distribution, 1987-2008

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the relationship between wage inequality, employment structure, and returns to education in urban areas of Mexico during the past two decades (1987-2008). Applying Melly’s (2005) quantile regression based decomposition, we find that changes in wage inequality have been driven mainly by variations in educational wage premia. Additionally, we find that changes in employment structure, including occupation and firm size, have played a vital role. This evidence seems to suggest that the changes in wage inequality in urban Mexico cannot be interpreted in terms of a skill-biased change, but rather they are the result of an increasing demand for skills during that period.

Benzodiazepines: Good Practice Guidelines for Clinicians

Benzodiazepines are one of the most widely used prescription medicinal products in the world. Benzodiazepines may be prescribed safely in the short-term and are a highly effective treatment for anxiety, insomnia and some forms of epilepsy and spasticity. Benzodiazepines are only indicated when the disorder is severe, disabling or subjecting the individual to extreme distress. Dependence is now recognised as a significant risk in patients receiving treatment for longer than one month and the practitioner has to be conscious of this when evaluating the relative benefits and risks of continued prescription. Download document here

Compliance with dietary recommendations in the population of Geneva, Switzerland: a ten-year trend study (1999-2009)

Introduction: There is little information regarding compliance with dietary recommendations in Switzerland. Objectives: To assess the trends in compliance with dietary recommendations in the Geneva population for period 1999 - 2009. Methods: Ten cross-sectional, population-based surveys (Bus Santé study). Dietary intake was assessed using a self-administered, validated semi quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire. Compliance with the Swiss Society for Nutrition recommendations for nutrient intake was assessed. In all 9320 participants aged 35 to 75 years (50% women) were included. Trends were assessed by logistic regression adjusting for age, smoking stats, education and nationality, using survey year as the independent variable. Results: After excluding participants with extreme intakes, the percentage of participants with a cholesterol consumption< 300 mg/day increased from 40.8% in 1999 to 43.6% in 2009 for men (multivariate-adjusted p for trend = 0.04) and from 57.8% to 61.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted p for trend = 0.06). Calcium intake > 1 g/day decreased from 53.3% to 46.0% in men and from 47.6% to 40.7% in women (multivariate-adjusted p for trend< 0.001). Adequate iron intake decreased from 68.3%to 65.3% in men and from 13.3% to 8.4% in women (multivariate-adjusted p for trend< 0.001). Conversely, no significant changes were observed for carbohydrates, protein, total fat (including saturated, monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids), fibre, vitamins D and A. Conclusion: Fewimprovements were noted in adherence to dietary recommendations in the Geneva population between 1999 and 2009. The low and decreasing prevalence of adequate calcium and iron intake are of concern.

Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Auschwitz : tres autors per a la memòria.

Introducció esquemàtica a la literatura de l'holocaust i comparació de l'obra de tres autors: Primo Levi, Imre Kertész i Maria Àngels Anglada. S'analitza una obra de cadascun d'ells. Les tres obres parlen de la vida quotidiana dels camps d'extermini nazis, es compara què tenen en comú i les diferències entre les tres, des del punt de vista humà i també dels recursos literaris; es fa referència al fet de crear i de conservar la humanitat en circumstàncies extremes.

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In the case of such a very special building project, the crucial stake for sustainable development is the fact that space systems are extreme cases of environmental constraints. In- deed, they constitute an interesting model as an analogy can be made between Martian utmost conditions and some of the possible extreme one's that Earth might soon face. The didactic ob- jective of the project is to use the context of a building on Mars to teach an approach which raises the students awareness to design and plan all steps of a building in a sustainable way, i.e. build, with the available resources, living spaces that satisfy human needs and leave as intact as possible the external environment. The paper presents the approach and the feedback of this student project, more specifically ENAC Learning Unit", which involved 17 students from envi- ronmental, civil engineering and architecture sections from EPFL. All the same, it involved pro- fessors from all three domains, as well as aerospace and Mars specialists, which gave seminars during the course of the semester. The students were separated in groups, and the project con- sisted of two phases: 1) analysis of the context and resources, 2) project design and critic. Both organisational, technical and pedagogical aspects of the experience are presented. The outcome was very positive, with students experiencing for their first time multidisciplinary work and the iterative process of design under multiple constraints.

Obesity increases your risk of developing diabetes

There are an estimated 69,000 adults and 1092 children living with diabetes in Northern Ireland in 2010. The number of adults with diabetes in Northern Ireland has increased by 34% since 2004. Many of these cases are preventable and related to obesity. With this in mind, during Diabetes Week (12 - 18 June 2011) the Public Health Agency is encouraging everyone across Northern Ireland to be aware of how diabetes can be prevented and what the signs and symptoms of diabetes are to ensure early diagnosis and good diabetic care.Type 1 diabetes cannot be prevented. It usually occurs in children and young adults. Type 2 diabetes typically occurs after the age of 40, but may occur at a younger age, and can often be prevented - mainly by keeping your weight within the normal range for your height. Dr Brid Farrell, Consultant in Public Health Medicine, PHA, said: "The increase of diabetes occurring in the population can be explained by rising levels of obesity, people living longer and improved detection and diagnosis of diabetes in primary care."The symptoms of diabetes can include increased thirst, passing urine more frequently (bedwetting in children), extreme tiredness, slow healing infections, blurred vision and significant or unexplained weight loss. Symptoms of diabetes can develop quickly over days or weeks, and sometimes with Type 2 diabetes, a person may have no symptoms. Early diagnosis is important. If you think you have diabetes speak to your GP or pharmacist.Dr Farrell continued: "Diabetes is a lifelong condition, but complications can be prevented or delayed by controlling your blood sugar, and treating high blood pressure and high cholesterol. If you have diabetes, a healthy diet and regular exercise is very important."Health Minister Edwin Poots said:"Diabetes is a serious condition, which affects many thousands of people across Northern Ireland. While not all diabetes is preventable, we all have a responsibility to look after our own health. "By making healthier lifestyle choices such as eating a healthy, well-balanced diet and taking regular exercise, we can reduce our risk of developing potentially life threatening conditions such as type 2 diabetes. I would urge everyone to take every possible step to improve their health and avoid developing preventable illnesses."Ends

PHA urges 'freshers' to be smart and know their alcohol limits

As 'fresher's week' commences, the Public Health Agency is encouraging students across Northern Ireland to avoid binge drinking and to know their limits if they do choose to drink alcohol.Enjoying new freedoms, at college or university, means taking care of yourself and others and, if you choose to drink, staying within safe alcohol limits. Owen O'Neill, PHA Health and Social Wellbeing Improvement Manager for drugs and alcohol, said: "Some young people may drink more when they leave home, or join their friends in college or university for the first time. They might think that, as young people, they don't have to take care with alcohol, but staying within the safe drinking limits is important for everyone who drinks. Excessive and binge drinking can have lasting effects on health, such as damage to the liver, heart, brain and stomach. Drinking too much can also increase the risk of accidents and antisocial behaviour as well as sexually transmitted infections and unplanned pregnancy"."We would also strongly advise against drinking games. Although they are regarded as a 'bit of fun', in reality they can be very dangerous. As an extreme form of binge drinking, where large quantities of alcohol are consumed in a very short time, drinking games can result in alcohol poisoning, leading to brain damage, coma or death. The PHA encourages students to enjoy their new student life, but urges them to be aware of their alcohol intake and drink responsibly, especially throughout fresher's week, with the many cheap drink promotions currently available."Daily alcohol limits are recommended by the government in order to avoid the risks of excessive and binge drinking in any one session. These are:Men: No more than 3 to 4 units of alcohol a day and no more than 21 units over the course of the week.Women: No more than 2 to 3 units of alcohol a day and no more than 14 units over the course of the week.Examples of units:Can of extra strong lager - 4 unitsBottle of lager - 1.5 unitsPint of standard lager - 2.5 unitsPint of premium larger - 3 unitsSmall pub bottle of wine - 2.25 units70cl bottle of wine - 7 to 10 unitsStandard 275ml of alcopops - 1.5 to 1.8 units70cl bottle of alcopops - 3.75 to 4.5 unitsPub measure of spirits - 1.5 unitsPint of cider - 3 unitsPint of stout - 2.5 unitsIf you do choose to drink alcohol:DON'T:Ever drink and driveDrink on an empty stomachMix alcohol with other drugsDrink in rounds as this may speed up your drinkingLeave your drinks unattendedDO:Take sips rather than gulpsAlternate each alcoholic drink with a non alcoholic drink e.g. water or a soft drinkSet yourself a limit and try to stick to it (refer to daily alcohol limits) Take frequent breaks from drinking to give your body time to recoverTell friends and family where you are going and who you will be withRemember, that for each unit you drink over the daily limit, the risk to your health increases. It's important to spread the units throughout the week - you can't 'save up' your units for the weekend or your holiday. It is also important to drink plenty of water, ideally matching the amount of alcohol you have consumed.So students make smart choices this term - drink sensibly and know your limits!For further information on sensible drinking and alcohol units visit the Public Health Agency's website www.knowyourlimits.info

Prevent type 2 diabetes by preventing obesity

In 2011 nearly 73,000 adults in Northern Ireland are registered as having diabetes. Many cases of diabetes are preventable and are the result of obesity. With this in mind, on World Diabetes Day, 14 November 2011, the Public Health Agency is encouraging everyone across Northern Ireland to be aware of how Type 2 diabetes can be prevented, the dangers it can cause to your health and what the signs and symptoms of diabetes are to ensure early diagnosis.The links between type 2 diabetes and obesity are firmly established. Without the intervention of a healthy diet and appropriate exercise, obesity may develop into diabetes over a relatively short period of time. According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), worldwide 80 per cent of people with Type 2 diabetes are overweight or obese at the time of diagnosis.If you are overweight, or obese the key step to preventing or delaying the onset of Type 2 diabetes is to lose a small amount of weight by making healthy food choices and being physically active 30 minutes a day, 5 days a week.Diabetes, if left untreated can cause serious long term health complications such as heart disease, kidney damage, eye problems, which can affect vision, and foot problems leading to amputation.Dr Brid Farrell, Consultant in Public Health Medicine, PHA, said: "The increase of diabetes occurring in the population can be explained by rising levels of obesity, people living longer and improved detection and diagnosis of diabetes in primary care."Having a family history of Type 2 diabetes increases your chances of developing diabetes. Take the first step today toward lowering your risk for Type 2 diabetes and improving your health and the health of future generations." The symptoms of diabetes can include increased thirst, passing urine more, frequently (bedwetting in children), extreme tiredness, slow healing infections, blurred vision and significant or unexplained weight loss. Symptoms of diabetes can develop quickly over days or weeks, and sometimes with Type 2 diabetes, a person may have no symptoms. Early diagnosis is important. If you think you have diabetes speak to your GP or pharmacist.Dr Farrell continued: "Diabetes is a lifelong condition, but complications can be prevented or delayed by controlling your blood sugar, and treating high blood pressure and high cholesterol. If you have diabetes, a healthy diet and regular exercise is very important."Health Minister Edwin Poots said:"Diabetes is a serious condition, which affects many thousands of people across Northern Ireland. While not all diabetes is preventable, we all have a responsibility to look after our own health. "By making healthier lifestyle choices such as eating a healthy, well-balanced diet and taking regular exercise, we can reduce our risk of developing potentially life threatening conditions such as type 2 diabetes. I would urge everyone to take every possible step to improve their health and avoid developing preventable illnesses