A conceptual framework for understanding resilience of construction SMEs to extreme weather events

Purpose Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), which form a significant portion in many economies, are some of the most vulnerable to the impact of Extreme Weather Events (EWEs). This is of particular importance to the construction industry, as an overarching majority of construction companies are SMEs who account for the majority of employment and income generation within the industry. In the UK, previous research has identified construction SMEs as some of the worst affected by EWEs. Design/methodology/approach Given the recent occurrences of EWEs and predictions suggesting increases in both the intensity and frequency of EWEs in the future, improving the resilience of construction SMEs is vital for achieving a resilient construction industry. A conceptual framework is first developed which is then populated and expanded based on empirical evidence. Positioned within a pragmatic research philosophy, case study research strategy was adopted as the overall research strategy in undertaking this investigation. Findings Based on the findings of two in-depth case studies of construction SMEs, a framework was developed to represent EWE resilience of construction SMEs, where resilience was seen as a collective effect of vulnerability, coping strategies and coping capacities of SMEs, characteristics of the EWE and the wider economic climate. Originality/value The paper provides an original contribution towards the overarching agenda of the resilience of SMEs, and policy making in the area of EWE risk management by presenting a novel conceptual framework depicting the resilience of medium-sized construction companies.

Self-adapting parallel metric-space search engine for variable query loads

This research focuses on automatically adapting a search engine size in response to fluctuations in query workload. Deploying a search engine in an Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS) cloud facilitates allocating or deallocating computer resources to or from the engine. Our solution is to contribute an adaptive search engine that will repeatedly re-evaluate its load and, when appropriate, switch over to a dierent number of active processors. We focus on three aspects and break them out into three sub-problems as follows: Continually determining the Number of Processors (CNP), New Grouping Problem (NGP) and Regrouping Order Problem (ROP). CNP means that (in the light of the changes in the query workload in the search engine) there is a problem of determining the ideal number of processors p active at any given time to use in the search engine and we call this problem CNP. NGP happens when changes in the number of processors are determined and it must also be determined which groups of search data will be distributed across the processors. ROP is how to redistribute this data onto processors while keeping the engine responsive and while also minimising the switchover time and the incurred network load. We propose solutions for these sub-problems. For NGP we propose an algorithm for incrementally adjusting the index to t the varying number of virtual machines. For ROP we present an ecient method for redistributing data among processors while keeping the search engine responsive. Regarding the solution for CNP, we propose an algorithm determining the new size of the search engine by re-evaluating its load. We tested the solution performance using a custom-build prototype search engine deployed in the Amazon EC2 cloud. Our experiments show that when we compare our NGP solution with computing the index from scratch, the incremental algorithm speeds up the index computation 2{10 times while maintaining a similar search performance. The chosen redistribution method is 25% to 50% faster than other methods and reduces the network load around by 30%. For CNP we present a deterministic algorithm that shows a good ability to determine a new size of search engine. When combined, these algorithms give an adapting algorithm that is able to adjust the search engine size with a variable workload.

Az extrém ármozgások statisztikai jellemzői a magyar áramtőzsdén (The statistical characteristics of extreme price movements in the Hungarian power exchange)

2010. július 20-án megkezdte működését a magyar áramtőzsde, a HUPX. 2010. augusztus 16-án az első napokban tapasztalt 45-60 euró megawattórás ár helyett egyes órákban 2999 eurós árral szembesültek a piaci szereplők. A kiemelkedően magas árak megjelenése nem szokatlan az áramtőzsdéken a nemzetközi tapasztalatok szerint, sőt a kutatások kiemelten foglalkoznak az ún. ártüskék okainak felkutatásával, valamint megjelenésük kvantitatív és kvalitatív elemzésével. A cikkben a szerző bemutatja, milyen eredmények születtek a kiugró árak statisztikai vizsgálatai során a szakirodalomban, illetve azok következtetései hogyan állják meg a helyüket a magyar árak idősorát figyelembe véve. A szerző bemutat egy modellkeretet, amely a villamosenergia-árak viselkedését a hét órái szerint periodikusan váltakozó paraméterű eloszlásokkal írja le. A magyar áramtőzsde rövid története sajnos nem teszi lehetővé, hogy a hét minden órájára külön áreloszlást illeszthessünk. A szerző ezért a hét óráit két csoportba sorolja az ár eloszlásának jellege alapján: az ártüskék megjelenése szempontjából kockázatos és kevésbé kockázatos órákba. Ezután a HUPX-árak leírására felépít egy determinisztikus, kétállapotú rezsimváltó modellt, amellyel azonosítani lehet a kockázatos és kevésbé kockázatos órákat, valamint képet kaphatunk az extrém ármozgások jellegéről. / === / On 20th July, 2010 the Hungarian Power Exchange, the HUPX started its operation. On 16th August in certain hours the markets participants faced € 2,999 price instead of in the first days experienced 45-60 euros/mwh. According to the international experiences the appearance of the extremely high prices hasn’t been unusual in the power exchanges, the researches have focused exploring the causes of the so-called spikes and quantitative and qualitative analysis of those appearances. In this article the author describes what results were determined on statistical studies of outstanding prices in the literature, and how their conclusions stand up into account the time series of the Hungarian prices. The author presents a model framework which describes the behavior of electricity prices in the seven hours of periodically varying parameters. Unfortunately the brief history of the Hungarian Power Exchange does not allow to suit specific prices for each hour of week. Therefore the author classifies the hours of the week in the two groups based on the nature of price dispersion: according to the appearance of spikes to risky and less risky classes. Then for describing the HUPX prices the author builds a deterministic two-state, regime-changing model, which can be identified the risky and less risky hours, and to get a picture of the nature of extreme price movements.

Lexicographic allocations and extreme core payoffs: the case of assignment games

We consider various lexicographic allocation procedures for coalitional games with transferable utility where the payoffs are computed in an externally given order of the players. The common feature of the methods is that if the allocation is in the core, it is an extreme point of the core. We first investigate the general relationship between these allocations and obtain two hierarchies on the class of balanced games. Secondly, we focus on assignment games and sharpen some of these general relationship. Our main result is the coincidence of the sets of lemarals (vectors of lexicographic maxima over the set of dual coalitionally rational payoff vectors), lemacols (vectors of lexicographic maxima over the core) and extreme core points. As byproducts, we show that, similarly to the core and the coalitionally rational payoff set, also the dual coalitionally rational payoff set of an assignment game is determined by the individual and mixed-pair coalitions, and present an efficient and elementary way to compute these basic dual coalitional values. This provides a way to compute the Alexia value (the average of all lemacols) with no need to obtain the whole coalitional function of the dual assignment game.

Correlates of leaf optical properties in tropical forest sun and extreme-shade plants

Thirteens hade-adaptedr ain forest species were comparedw ith twelve sun-adaptedt ropical forest species for correlates to leaf optical properties (described previously in Amer. J. Bot. 73: 1100-1108). The two samples were similar in absorptance of quanta for photosynthesis, but the shade-adaptedt axa: 1) had significantlyl ower specificl eaf weights,i ndicatinga more metabolically efficient production of surface for quantum capture; 2) synthesized less chlorophyll per unit area; and 3) used less chlorophyll for capturing the same quanta for photosynthesis. The anatomical features that best correlate with this increased efficiency are palisade cell shape and chloroplast distribution. Palisade cells with more equal dimensions have more chloroplasts on their abaxial surfaces. This dense layer of chloroplasts maximizes the light capture efficiency limited by sieve effects. The more columnar palisade cells of sun-adapted taxa allow light to pass through the central vacuoles and spaces between cells, making chloroplasts less efficient in energy capture, but allowing light to reach chloroplasts in the spongy mesophyll. Pioneer species may be an exception to these two groups of species. Three pioneer taxa included in this study have columnar palisade cells that are extremely narrow and packed closely together. This layer allows little penetration of light, but exposure of the leaf undersurface may provide illumination of spongy mesophyll chloroplasts in these plants.

Leaf Optical Properties of Rainforest Sun and Extreme Shade Plants

The opticalp ropertieso f the leaves of twelve tropicals un speciesa nd thirteent ropicale xtreme shade species were examinedw ith an integratings pherea ttachedt o a spectroradiometerM. easurements of diffuse reflectance and transmittance allowed calculations of absorptance, 350- 1,100 nm. Althoughs ome shade species absorbedh igherp ercentageso f quantumf lux densities for photosynthesis (400-700 nm, PPFD) than the mean for the sun species, the sun and shade species as groups were not significantly different from each other: 90.2, S.D. 3.6% for shade species and 88.6, S.D. 2.4% for the sun species. The groups of species did not differ in total absorptance of energy 350-1,100 nm. Furthermore, the sun and shade species were identical in theirs hifto f absorptancea t wavelengthsb etween6 50 and 750 nm. The anthocyanicc oloration of the leaf undersurfaceso f two species polymorphicf or this characteristic( Trionela hirsuta and Ischnosciphonp ruinosus)i s correlatedw ith increaseda bsorptancea t the uppere nd of the action spectrum of photosynthesis. Although sun and shade species have similar optical properties, the energy investment (as documented by dry wt per unit area of leaf surface) is much less for the shade species.

Study of the physical properties of metals and oxides at extreme pressure and temperature conditions

The high-pressure and temperature investigations on transition metals, metal doped-oxide system, nanocrystalline materials are presented in this dissertation. The metal-doped oxide systems are technologically important because of their applications, e.g. LSC, opto electronic applications, luminescence from lasers, etc., and from the earth sciences point of view, e.g. the study of trace elements in the MgO-SiO2 system, which accounts for 50% of the Earth's chondritic model. We have carried out thorough investigations on Cr2O3 and on chromium bearing oxides at high PT-conditions using in situ X-ray diffractometry and florescence spectroscopy techniques. Having obtained exciting results, an attempt to focus on the mechanism of the coordination of transition metals in oxides has been made. Additionally, the florescence from the metals in host oxides was found to be helpful to obtain information on structural variations like changes in the coordination of the doped element, formation of new phases, the diffusion processes. The possible reactions taking place at extreme conditions in the MgO-SiO2 system has been observed using florescence as markers. A new heating assemblage has been designed and fabricated for a precise determination of temperature at high pressures. An equation combining pressure shifts of ruby wavelength and temperature has been proposed. We observed that the compressibility of nanocrystalline material (MgO and Ni) is independent of crystallite size. A reduction in the transition pressure of nanocrystalline ceria at high-pressure has been observed as compare to the corresponding bulk material. ^

Using extreme value theory to value stock market returns

Extreme stock price movements are of great concern to both investors and the entire economy. For investors, a single negative return, or a combination of several smaller returns, can possible wipe out so much capital that the firm or portfolio becomes illiquid or insolvent. If enough investors experience this loss, it could shock the entire economy. An example of such a case is the stock market crash of 1987. Furthermore, there has been a lot of recent interest regarding the increasing volatility of stock prices. ^ This study presents an analysis of extreme stock price movements. The data utilized was the daily returns for the Standard and Poor's 500 index from January 3, 1978 to May 31, 2001. Research questions were analyzed using the statistical models provided by extreme value theory. One of the difficulties in examining stock price data is that there is no consensus regarding the correct shape of the distribution function generating the data. An advantage with extreme value theory is that no detailed knowledge of this distribution function is required to apply the asymptotic theory. We focus on the tail of the distribution. ^ Extreme value theory allows us to estimate a tail index, which we use to derive bounds on the returns for very low probabilities on an excess. Such information is useful in evaluating the volatility of stock prices. There are three possible limit laws for the maximum: Gumbel (thick-tailed), Fréchet (thin-tailed) or Weibull (no tail). Results indicated that extreme returns during the time period studied follow a Fréchet distribution. Thus, this study finds that extreme value analysis is a valuable tool for examining stock price movements and can be more efficient than the usual variance in measuring risk. ^

Synthesis of M2AC (M = Ti, V, Cr, Nb, Zr, A = Al, Sn, S) (MAX) carbide phases and study of their physical behavior under extreme conditions

Materials known as Mn+1AXn phases, where n is 1, 2, or 3, and M represents an early transition metal, A an A-group element, and X is either Carbon and/or Nitrogen [1], are fast becoming technologically important materials due to the interesting combination of unique properties. However, a lot of important information about the high temperature and high pressure behavior of many of these compounds is still missing, which needs to be determined systematically. ^ In this dissertation the synthesis of M2AC (M = Ti, V, Cr, Nb, Zr) and A = (Al, Sn, S) compounds by arc melting, vacuum sintering and piston cylinder synthesis is presented along with the synthesis of Zr 2SC, which has been synthesized for first time in bulk form, by piston cylinder technique. The microstructural analysis by electron microscopy and phase analysis by x-ray diffraction is presented next. Finally, a critical analysis of the behavior of these compounds under the application of extreme pressure (as high as 50 GPa) and temperature (≈ 1000°C) is presented. ^ The high pressure studies, up to 50 GPa, showed that these compounds were structurally intact and their bulk moduli ranged from 140 to 190 GPa. The high temperature studies in the inert atmosphere showed that the M 2SnC compounds were unstable above 650°C and the expansion along the a-axis was higher than that along the c-axis, unlike the other phases. M2SC compounds on the other hand showed negligible difference in the thermal expansion along the two axes. The oxidation study revealed that Ti2AC (Al, S) compounds had highest resistance to oxidation while the M2SnC compounds had the least. Furthermore, from the oxidation study of these compounds, which were short time oxidation experiments, it was found that all of these compounds oxidized to their respective binary oxides. ^

Aerodynamic load characteristics evaluation and tri-axial performance testing on fiber reinforced polymer connections and metal fasteners to promote hurricane damage mitigation

Damages during extreme wind events highlight the weaknesses of mechanical fasteners at the roof-to-wall connections in residential timber frame buildings. The allowable capacity of the metal fasteners is based on results of unidirectional component testing that do not simulate realistic tri-axial aerodynamic loading effects. The first objective of this research was to simulate hurricane effects and study hurricane-structure interaction at full-scale, facilitating better understanding of the combined impacts of wind, rain, and debris on inter-component connections at spatial and temporal scales. The second objective was to evaluate the performance of a non-intrusive roof-to-wall connection system using fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) materials and compare its load capacity to the capacity of an existing metal fastener under simulated aerodynamic loads. ^ The Wall of Wind (WoW) testing performed using FRP connections on a one-story gable-roof timber structure instrumented with a variety of sensors, was used to create a database on aerodynamic and aero-hydrodynamic loading on roof-to-wall connections tested under several parameters: angles of attack, wind-turbulence content, internal pressure conditions, with and without effects of rain. Based on the aerodynamic loading results obtained from WoW tests, sets of three force components (tri-axial mean loads) were combined into a series of resultant mean forces, which were used to test the FRP and metal connections in the structures laboratory up to failure. A new component testing system and test protocol were developed for testing fasteners under simulated triaxial loading as opposed to uni-axial loading. The tri-axial and uni-axial test results were compared for hurricane clips. Also, comparison was made between tri-axial load capacity of FRP and metal connections. ^ The research findings demonstrate that the FRP connection is a viable option for use in timber roof-to-wall connection system. Findings also confirm that current testing methods of mechanical fasteners tend to overestimate the actual load capacities of a connector. Additionally, the research also contributes to the development a new testing protocol for fasteners using tri-axial simultaneous loads based on the aerodynamic database obtained from the WoW testing. ^

Epiphyte loads on seagrasses and microphytobenthos abundance are not reliable indicators of nutrient availability in oligotrophic coastal ecosystems

Despite marked gradients in nutrient availability that control the abundance and species composition of seagrasses in south Florida, and the importance of nutrient availability in controlling abundance and composition of epiphytes on seagrasses in other locations, we did not find that epiphyte load on the dominant seagrass, Thalassia testudinum, or that the relative contribution of algal epiphytes to the epiphyte community, was positively correlated with nutrient availability in the water column or the sediment in oligotrophic seagrass beds. Further, the abundance of microphytobenthos, as indicated by Chlorophyll-aconcentration in the sediments, was not directly correlated with concentrations of nutrients in the sediments. Our results suggest that epiphyte and microphytobenthos abundance are not unambiguous indicators of nutrient availability in relatively pristine seagrass environments, and therefore would make poor candidates for indicators of the status and trends of seagrass ecosystems in relatively low-nutrient environments like the Florida Keys.

Exploring thermal and mechanical properties of selected transition elements under extreme conditions: Experiments at high pressures and high temperatures

Transition metals (Ti, Zr, Hf, Mo, W, V, Nb, Ta, Pd, Pt, Cu, Ag, and Au) are essential building units of many materials and have important industrial applications. Therefore, it is important to understand their thermal and physical behavior when they are subjected to extreme conditions of pressure and temperature. This dissertation presents: • An improved experimental technique to use lasers for the measurement of thermal conductivity of materials under conditions of very high pressure (P, up to 50 GPa) and temperature (T up to 2500 K). • An experimental study of the phase relationship and physical properties of selected transition metals, which revealed new and unexpected physical effects of thermal conductivity in Zr, and Hf under high P-T. • New phase diagrams created for Hf, Ti and Zr from experimental data. • P-T dependence of the lattice parameters in α-hafnium. Contrary to prior reports, the α-ω phase transition in hafnium has a negative dT/dP slope. • New data on thermodynamic and physical properties of several transition metals and their respective high P-T phase diagrams. • First complete thermodynamic database for solid phases of 13 common transition metals was created. This database has: All the thermochemical data on these elements in their standard state (mostly available and compiled); All the equations of state (EoS) formulated from pressure-volume-temperature data (measured as a part of this study and from literature); Complete thermodynamic data for selected elements from standard to extreme conditions. The thermodynamic database provided by this study can be used with available thermodynamic software to calculate all thermophysical properties and phase diagrams at high P-T conditions. For readers who do not have access to this software, tabulated values of all thermodynamic and volume data for the 13 metals at high P-T are included in the APPENDIX. In the APPENDIX, a description of several other high-pressure studies of selected oxide systems is also included. Thermophysical properties (Cp, H, S, G) of the high P-T ω-phase of Ti, Zr and Hf were determined during the optimization of the EoS parameters and are presented in this study for the first time. These results should have important implications in understanding hexagonal-close-packed to simple-hexagonal phase transitions in transition metals and other materials.

Computational evaluation of wind loads on low- and highrise buildings

Buildings and other infrastructures located in the coastal regions of the US have a higher level of wind vulnerability. Reducing the increasing property losses and causalities associated with severe windstorms has been the central research focus of the wind engineering community. The present wind engineering toolbox consists of building codes and standards, laboratory experiments, and field measurements. The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 7 standard provides wind loads only for buildings with common shapes. For complex cases it refers to physical modeling. Although this option can be economically viable for large projects, it is not cost-effective for low-rise residential houses. To circumvent these limitations, a numerical approach based on the techniques of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been developed. The recent advance in computing technology and significant developments in turbulence modeling is making numerical evaluation of wind effects a more affordable approach. The present study targeted those cases that are not addressed by the standards. These include wind loads on complex roofs for low-rise buildings, aerodynamics of tall buildings, and effects of complex surrounding buildings. Among all the turbulence models investigated, the large eddy simulation (LES) model performed the best in predicting wind loads. The application of a spatially evolving time-dependent wind velocity field with the relevant turbulence structures at the inlet boundaries was found to be essential. All the results were compared and validated with experimental data. The study also revealed CFD's unique flow visualization and aerodynamic data generation capabilities along with a better understanding of the complex three-dimensional aerodynamics of wind-structure interactions. With the proper modeling that realistically represents the actual turbulent atmospheric boundary layer flow, CFD can offer an economical alternative to the existing wind engineering tools. CFD's easy accessibility is expected to transform the practice of structural design for wind, resulting in more wind-resilient and sustainable systems by encouraging optimal aerodynamic and sustainable structural/building design. Thus, this method will help ensure public safety and reduce economic losses due to wind perils.

Hybrid power system intelligent operation and protection involving distributed architectures and pulsed loads

Efficient and reliable techniques for power delivery and utilization are needed to account for the increased penetration of renewable energy sources in electric power systems. Such methods are also required for current and future demands of plug-in electric vehicles and high-power electronic loads. Distributed control and optimal power network architectures will lead to viable solutions to the energy management issue with high level of reliability and security. This dissertation is aimed at developing and verifying new techniques for distributed control by deploying DC microgrids, involving distributed renewable generation and energy storage, through the operating AC power system. To achieve the findings of this dissertation, an energy system architecture was developed involving AC and DC networks, both with distributed generations and demands. The various components of the DC microgrid were designed and built including DC-DC converters, voltage source inverters (VSI) and AC-DC rectifiers featuring novel designs developed by the candidate. New control techniques were developed and implemented to maximize the operating range of the power conditioning units used for integrating renewable energy into the DC bus. The control and operation of the DC microgrids in the hybrid AC/DC system involve intelligent energy management. Real-time energy management algorithms were developed and experimentally verified. These algorithms are based on intelligent decision-making elements along with an optimization process. This was aimed at enhancing the overall performance of the power system and mitigating the effect of heavy non-linear loads with variable intensity and duration. The developed algorithms were also used for managing the charging/discharging process of plug-in electric vehicle emulators. The protection of the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system was studied. Fault analysis and protection scheme and coordination, in addition to ideas on how to retrofit currently available protection concepts and devices for AC systems in a DC network, were presented. A study was also conducted on the effect of changing the distribution architecture and distributing the storage assets on the various zones of the network on the system's dynamic security and stability. A practical shipboard power system was studied as an example of a hybrid AC/DC power system involving pulsed loads. Generally, the proposed hybrid AC/DC power system, besides most of the ideas, controls and algorithms presented in this dissertation, were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed, Energy Systems Research Laboratory. All the developments in this dissertation were experimentally verified at the Smart Grid Testbed.

Decision-making under extreme *uncertainty: Rethinking hazard -related perceptions and action

Understanding who evacuates and who does not has been one of the cornerstones of research on the pre-impact phase of both natural and technological hazards. Its history is rich in descriptive illustrations focusing on lists of characteristics of those who flee to safety. Early models of evacuation focused almost exclusively on the relationship between whether warnings were heard and ultimately believed and evacuation behavior. How people came to believe these warnings and even how they interpreted the warnings were not incorporated. In fact, the individual seemed almost removed from the picture with analysis focusing exclusively on external measures. ^ This study built and tested a more comprehensive model of evacuation that centers on the decision-making process, rather than decision outcomes. The model focused on three important factors that alter and shape the evacuation decision-making landscape. These factors are: individual level indicators which exist independently of the hazard itself and act as cultural lenses through which information is heard, processed and interpreted; hazard specific variables that directly relate to the specific hazard threat; and risk perception. The ultimate goal is to determine what factors influence the evacuation decision-making process. Using data collected for 1998's Hurricane Georges, logistic regression models were used to evaluate how well the three main factors help our understanding of how individuals come to their decisions to either flee to safety during a hurricane or remain in their homes. ^ The results of the logistic regression were significant emphasizing that the three broad types of factors tested in the model influence the decision making process. Conclusions drawn from the data analysis focus on how decision-making frames are different for those who can be designated “evacuators” and for those in evacuation zones. ^