Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiation of the Australian flora: What can comparisons of molecular phylogenies across multiple taxa tell us about the evolution of diversity in present-day communities?

The Australian fossil record shows that from ca. 25 Myr ago, the aseasonal-wet biome (rainforest and wet heath) gave way to the unique Australian sclerophyll biomes dominated by eucalypts, acacias and casuarinas. This transition coincided with tectonic isolation of Australia, leading to cooler, drier, more seasonal climates. From 3 Myr ago, aridification caused rapid opening of the central Australian and zone. Molecular phylogenies with dated nodes have provided new perspectives on how these events could have affected the evolution of the Australian flora. During the Mid-Cenozoic (25-10 Myr ago) period of climatic change, there were rapid radiations in sclerophyll taxa, such as Banksia, eucalypts, pea-flowered legumes and Allocasuarina. At the same time, taxa restricted to the aseasonal-wet biome (Nothofagus, Podocarpaceae and Araucariaceae) did not radiate or were depleted by extinction. During the Pliocene aridification, two Eremean biome taxa (Lepidium and Chenopodiaceae) radiated rapidly after dispersing into Australia from overseas. It is clear that the biomes have different histories. Lineages in the aseasonal-wet biome are species poor, with sister taxa that are species rich, either outside Australia or in the sclerophyll biomes. In conjunction with the fossil record, this indicates depletion of the Australian aseasonal-wet biome from the Mid-Cenozoic. In the sclerophyll biomes, there have been multiple exchanges between the southwest and southeast, rather than single large endemic radiations after a vicariance event. There is need for rigorous molecular phylogenetic studies so that additional questions can be addressed, such as how interactions between biomes may have driven the speciation process during radiations. New studies should include the hither-to neglected monsoonal tropics.

Utilizing encoding in scalable linear optics quantum computing

We present a scheme which offers a significant reduction in the resources required to implement linear optics quantum computing. The scheme is a variation of the proposal of Knill, Laflamme and Milburn, and makes use of an incremental approach to the error encoding to boost probability of success.

Male-by-female interactions influence fertilization success and mediate the benefits of polyandry in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma

Numerous studies have reported that females benefit from mating with multiple males (polyandry) by minimizing the probability of fertilization by genetically incompatible sperm. Few, however, have directly attributed variation in female reproductive success to the fertilizing capacity of sperm. In this study we report on two experiments that investigated the benefits of polyandry and the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization in the free-spawning Australian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma. In the first experiment we used a paired (split clutch) experimental design and compared fertilization rates within female egg clutches under polyandry (eggs exposed to the sperm from two males simultaneously) and monandry (eggs from the same female exposed to sperm from each of the same two males separately). Our analysis revealed a significant fertilization benefit of polyandry and strong interacting effects of males and females at fertilization. Further analysis of these data strongly suggested that the higher rates of fertilization in the polyandry treatment were due to an overrepresentation of fertilizations due to the most compatible male. To further explore the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization we performed a second factorial experiment in which four mates were crossed with two females (in all eight combinations). In addition to confirming that fertilization success is influenced by male X female interactions, this latter experiment revealed that both sexes contributed significant variance to the observed patterns of fertilization. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of male X female interactions at fertilization and suggest that polyandry will enable females to reduce the cost of fertilization by incompatible gametes.

Use of the q-Gaussian mutation in evolutionary algorithms

This paper proposes the use of the q-Gaussian mutation with self-adaptation of the shape of the mutation distribution in evolutionary algorithms. The shape of the q-Gaussian mutation distribution is controlled by a real parameter q. In the proposed method, the real parameter q of the q-Gaussian mutation is encoded in the chromosome of individuals and hence is allowed to evolve during the evolutionary process. In order to test the new mutation operator, evolution strategy and evolutionary programming algorithms with self-adapted q-Gaussian mutation generated from anisotropic and isotropic distributions are presented. The theoretical analysis of the q-Gaussian mutation is also provided. In the experimental study, the q-Gaussian mutation is compared to Gaussian and Cauchy mutations in the optimization of a set of test functions. Experimental results show the efficiency of the proposed method of self-adapting the mutation distribution in evolutionary algorithms.

Binary games with many players

We examine a problem with n players each facing the same binary choice. One choice is superior to the other. The simple assumption of competition - that an individual's payoff falls with a rise in the number of players making the same choice, guarantees the existence of a unique symmetric equilibrium (involving mixed strategies). As n increases, there are two opposing effects. First, events in the middle of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as many others - become more likely, but the payoffs in these events fall. In opposition, events in the tails of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as few others - become less likely, but the payoffs in these events remain high. We provide a sufficient condition (strong competition) under which an increase in the number of players leads to a reduction in the equilibrium probability that the superior choice is made.

Effects of pasture implantation on the termite (Isoptera) fauna in the Central Brazilian Savanna (Cerrado)

The advance of agricultural frontier may cause the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) to disappear before 2030. This work focuses on measuring the impact of pasture implantation on a cerrado`s termite fauna. Termites were sampled in a cerrado sensu stricto and a pasture, originally cerrado. All species were classified as their feeder group, accumulation curves were made and Shannon-Wiener indexes and beta diversity were calculated for both areas. Cerrado was richer than pasture and species composition differed considerably, leading beta diversity to a high value. The humivorous was the most representative species, followed by grass/litter feeders, xylophagous and, less representative, the intermediates. There were more xylophagous and intermediates species on cerrado than in pasture; the grass/litter feeders were more abundant in pasture, but didn`t differed in number or species; and humivorous didn`t differed neither in richness nor in abundance. This work shows that the simplification of the habitat is indeed causing the extinction of populations that depend on some specifics resource.

Rewarded associative and instrumental conditioning after neonatal ventral hippocampus lesions in rats

Sprague Dawley rats were submitted to bilateral ventral hippocampus lesions 7 days after birth. This corresponds to the Lipska and Weinberger`s procedure for modeling schizophrenia. The aim of the present work was to test the learning capacity of such rats with an associative Pavlovian and an instrumental learning paradigm, both methods using reward outcome (food, sucrose or polycose). The associative paradigm comprised also a second learning test with reversed learning contingencies. The instrumental conditioning comprised an extinction test under outcome devaluation conditions. Neonatally lesioned rats, once adults (over 60 days of age), showed a conditioning deficit in the associative paradigm but not in the instrumental one. Lesioned rats remained able to adapt as readily as controls to the reversed learning contingency and were as sensitive as controls to the devaluation of outcome. Such observations indicate that the active access (instrumental learning) to a reward could have compensated for the deficit observed under the ""passive"" stimulus-reward associative learning condition. This feature is compared to the memory management impairments observed in clinical patients. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Myocardial scintigraphy and clinical stratification as predictors of events in renal transplant candidates

Background: We tested the hypothesis that the universal application of myocardial scanning with single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) would result in better risk stratification in renal transplant candidates (RTC) compared with SPECT being restricted to patients who, in addition to renal disease, had other clinical risk factors. Methods: RTCs (n=363) underwent SPECT and clinical risk stratification according to the American Society of Transplantation (AST) algorithm and were followed up until a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE) or death. Results: Of the 363 patients, 79 patients (22%) had an abnormal SPECT scan and 270 (74%) were classified as high risk. Both methods correctly identified patients with increased probability of MACE. However, clinical stratification performed better (sensitivity and negative predictive value 99% and 99% vs. 25% and 87%, respectively). High-risk patients with an abnormal SPECT scan had a modest increased risk of events (log-rank = 0.03; hazard ratio [HR] = 1.37; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.02-1.82). Eighty-six patients underwent coronary angiography, and coronary artery disease (CAD) was found in 60%. High-risk patients with CAD had an increased incidence of events (log-rank = 0.008; HR=3.85; 95% CI, 1.46-13.22), but in those with an abnormal SPECT scan, the incidence of events was not influenced by CAD (log-rank = 0.23). Forty-six patients died. Clinical stratification, but not SPECT, correlated with the probability of death (log-rank = 0.02; HR=3.25; 95% CI, 1.31-10.82). Conclusion: SPECT should be restricted to high-risk patients. Moreover, in contrast to SPECT, the AST algorithm was also useful for predicting death by any cause in RTCs and for selecting patients for invasive coronary testing.

The Absence of Coronary Calcification Does Not Exclude Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease or the Need for Revascularization in Patients Referred for Conventional Coronary Angiography

Objectives This study was designed to evaluate whether the absence of coronary calcium could rule out >= 50% coronary stenosis or the need for revascularization. Background The latest American Heart Association guidelines suggest that a calcium score (CS) of zero might exclude the need for coronary angiography among symptomatic patients. Methods A substudy was made of the CORE64 (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors) multicenter trial comparing the diagnostic performance of 64-detector computed tomography to conventional angiography. Patients clinically referred for conventional angiography were asked to undergo a CS scan up to 30 days before. Results In all, 291 patients were included, of whom 214 (73%) were male, and the mean age was 59.3 +/- 10.0 years. A total of 14 (5%) patients had low, 218 (75%) had intermediate, and 59 (20%) had high pre-test probability of obstructive coronary artery disease. The overall prevalence of >= 50% stenosis was 56%. A total of 72 patients had CS = 0, among whom 14 (19%) had at least 1 >= 50% stenosis. The overall sensitivity for CS = 0 to predict the absence of >= 50% stenosis was 45%, specificity was 91%, negative predictive value was 68%, and positive predictive value was 81%. Additionally, revascularization was performed in 9 (12.5%) CS = 0 patients within 30 days of the CS. From a total of 383 vessels without any coronary calcification, 47 (12%) presented with >= 50% stenosis; and from a total of 64 totally occluded vessels, 13 (20%) had no calcium. Conclusions The absence of coronary calcification does not exclude obstructive stenosis or the need for revascularization among patients with high enough suspicion of coronary artery disease to be referred for coronary angiography, in contrast with the published recommendations. Total coronary occlusion frequently occurs in the absence of any detectable calcification. (Coronary Evaluation Using Multi-Detector Spiral Computed Tomography Angiography Using 64 Detectors [CORE-64]; NCT00738218) (J Am Coll Cardiol 2010;55:627-34) (C) 2010 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation

Distribution of an asymmetrical copepod, Hatschekia plectropomi, on the gills of Plectropomus leopardus

Hatschekia plectropomi, an ectoparasitic copepod found on the gills, infected Plectropomus leopardus from Heron Island Reef with 100% prevalence (n = 32) and a mean +/- S.E. infection intensity of 131.9 +/- 22.1. The distribution of 4222 adult female parasites across 32 individual host fish was investigated at several organizational levels ranging from the level of holobranch pairs to that of individual filaments. Parasites demonstrated a site preference for the two central holobranchs (2 and 3). Along the lengths of hemibranchs, filaments near the dorsal and ventral ends and those in the proximity of the bend region were rarely occupied. The probability of coming into contact with a suitable attachment site and the ability to withstand ventilation forces at that site were proposed as the major factors affecting distribution. Two H. plectropomi morphotypes were identified based on the direction of body curvature. Regardless of morphotype, 99.9% of individuals were attached such that the convex side of the body was oriented towards the oncoming ventilating water currents. Further, 93.3% of individuals attached to the posterior faces of filaments, leading to a predictable pattern of attachment for this species. It is suggested that the direction of body curvature develops in response to the direction of the ventilating water currents. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Molecular orbital calculations of two-electron states for P-donor solid-state spin qubits

We theoretically study the Hilbert space structure of two neighboring P-donor electrons in silicon-based quantum computer architectures. To use electron spins as qubits, a crucial condition is the isolation of the electron spins from their environment, including the electronic orbital degrees of freedom. We provide detailed electronic structure calculations of both the single donor electron wave function and the two-electron pair wave function. We adopted a molecular orbital method for the two-electron problem, forming a basis with the calculated single donor electron orbitals. Our two-electron basis contains many singlet and triplet orbital excited states, in addition to the two simple ground state singlet and triplet orbitals usually used in the Heitler-London approximation to describe the two-electron donor pair wave function. We determined the excitation spectrum of the two-donor system, and study its dependence on strain, lattice position, and interdonor separation. This allows us to determine how isolated the ground state singlet and triplet orbitals are from the rest of the excited state Hilbert space. In addition to calculating the energy spectrum, we are also able to evaluate the exchange coupling between the two donor electrons, and the double occupancy probability that both electrons will reside on the same P donor. These two quantities are very important for logical operations in solid-state quantum computing devices, as a large exchange coupling achieves faster gating times, while the magnitude of the double occupancy probability can affect the error rate.

The Use of Smell Identification Tests in the Diagnosis of Parkinson`s Disease in Brazil

Smell identification tests may be of routine clinical value in the differential diagnosis of PD but are subject to cultural variation and have not been systematically evaluated in the Brazilian population. We have applied culturally adapted translations of the University of Pennsylvania 40-item smell identification test (UPSIT-40) and the 16-item identification test from Sniffin` Sticks (SS-16) to nondemented Brazilian PD patients and controls. Pearson`s correlation coefficient between the test scores was 0.76 (95% CI 0.70-0.81, n = 204, P < 0.001). To calculate reliability measures for each test we used the diagnosis (either PD or control) as outcome variable for separate logistic regression analyses using the score in the UPSIT-40 or the SS-16 as a covariate. The SS-16 specificity was 89.0% with a sensitivity of 81.1% (106 PD and 118 controls). The UPSIT-40 specificity was 83.5% and its sensitivity 82.1% (95 PD and 109 controls). Regression curves were used to associate an individual`s smell test score with the probability of belonging to the PD, as opposed to the control group. Our data provide support for the use of the UPSIT-40 and SS-16 to help distinguish early PD from controls. (c) 2008 Movement Disorder Society

Anxiety Disorders and Rheumatic Fever: Is There an Association?

Introduction: Findings suggest that obsessive-compulsi e disorder (OCD) and related disorders, referred to as obsessive-compulsive spectrum disorders (OCSDs), are more common in patients with rheumatic fever (RF). Objectives: To determine whether RF or Sydenham`s chorea increases the probability of anxiety disorders in the relatives of individuals with RF with and without SC. Methods: This was a case-Control family study in which 98 probands and 389 first-degree relatives (FDRs) were assessed using structured psychiatric interviews. A Poisson regression model was used to determine whether the presence of any disorder in one family member influences the rate of disorders in the remaining family members. Results: Generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) occurred more frequently in the FDRs of RF probands than in those of control probands (P=.018). The presence of RF,GAD, or separation anxiety disorder in one family member significantly increased the chance of OCSDs in another member of the family.