Dynamik diabatischer Rossby-Wellen

Diabatische Rossby-Wellen (DRWs) sind zyklonale Wirbel in der unteren Troposphäre, welche sich durch einen thermodynamisch-dynamischen Mechanismus kontinuierlich regenerieren und dabei schnell propagieren können. Vorangehende Untersuchungen schreiben derartigen zyklonalen Wirbeln das Potential zu, unter Wechselwirkung mit einer Anomalie an der Tropopause eine rapide Zyklonenintensivierung und folglich extreme Wetterereignisse hervorrufen zu können. DRWs wurden bisher meist in idealisierten Studien untersucht, woraus sich noch einige offene Fragen zu diesem Phänomen, besonders in realen Modelldaten, ergeben.rnrnIm Mittelpunkt dieser Arbeit steht die Fallstudie einer DRW, die im Dezember 2005 über dem Nordatlantik auftrat. Der Lebenszyklus des Systems ist über mehrere Tage und durch verschiedene Phasen verfolgbar und resultiert in einer explosiven Druckvertiefung. Zur Untersuchung der Fallstudie wurde mit operationellen Daten eines Globalmodelles sowie mit den Resultaten eines feinskaligeren Regionalmodelles gearbeitet, auf welche unterschiedliche Analysewerkzeuge angewendet wurden. rnrnDie eingehende Untersuchung der Propagationsphase der DRW bekräftigte das Vorhandensein von genügend Feuchte und Baroklinität als essentiell für den Propagationsmechanismus und die Intensität der DRW. Während der Propagationsphase arbeitet der selbsterhaltende DRW-Mechanismus unabhängig von einer von den Wellen an der Tropopause ausgehenden Anregung. Sensitivitätsstudien mit dem Regionalmodell, in denen die Umgebungsbedingungen der DRW lokal modifiziert wurden, ergaben, dass die Propagation einen relativ robusten Ablauf darstellt. Dementsprechend war in den vier untersuchten operationellen Vorhersagen die Propagationsphase gut wiedergegeben, während die rapide Intensivierung, wie sie gemäß den Analysen aufgetreten ist, von zwei der Vorhersagen verfehlt wurde.rnrnBei der Untersuchung der Intensivierungsphase stellten sich die Position und die zeitliche Abstimmung der Bewegung der Anomalie an der Tropopause relativ zur DRW in der unteren Troposphäre sowie die Stärke der Systeme als entscheidende Einflussfaktoren heraus. In den Entwicklungen der Sensitivitätssimulationen deutete sich an, dass ein unabhängig von der DRW an geeigneter Position entstandener zyklonaler Wirbel konstruktiver zu einer starken Zyklonenintensivierung beitragen kann als die DRW.rnrnIm zweiten Teil der Arbeit wurde ein Datensatz über die Nordhemisphäre für die Jahre 2004-2008 hinsichtlich des geographischen Vorkommens und der Intensivierung von DRWs untersucht. DRWs ereigneten sich in diesem Zeitraum über dem Atlantik (255 DRWs) halb so oft wie über dem Pazifik (515 DRWs). Ihre Entstehungsgebiete befanden sich über den Ostteilen der Kontinente und den Westhälften der Ozeane. Die Zugbahnen folgten größtenteils der baroklinen Zone der mittleren Breiten. Von den erfassten DRWs intensivierten sich im Atlanik 16% zu explosiven Tiefdruckgebieten, über dem Pazifik liegt der Anteil mit 11% etwas niedriger. Damit tragen DRWs zu etwa 20% der sich explosiv intensivierenden außertropischen Zyklonen bei.

Supernova detection in a future extension of the IceCube neutrino telescope

Marking the final explosive burning stage of massive stars, supernovae are onernthe of most energetic celestial events. Apart from their enormous optical brightnessrnthey are also known to be associated with strong emission of MeV neutrinos—up tornnow the only proven source of extrasolar neutrinos.rnAlthough being designed for the detection of high energy neutrinos, the recentlyrncompleted IceCube neutrino telescope in the antarctic ice will have the highestrnsensitivity of all current experiments to measure the shape of the neutrino lightrncurve, which is in the MeV range. This measurement is crucial for the understandingrnof supernova dynamics.rnIn this thesis, the development of a Monte Carlo simulation for a future low energyrnextension of IceCube, called PINGU, is described that investigates the response ofrnPINGU to a supernova. Using this simulation, various detector configurations arernanalysed and optimised for supernova detection. The prospects of extracting notrnonly the total light curve, but also the direction of the supernova and the meanrnneutrino energy from the data are discussed. Finally the performance of PINGU isrncompared to the current capabilities of IceCube.

Inversion of low frequency seismo-volcanic events

The inversion of seismo-volcanic events is performed to retrieve the source geometry and to determine volumetric budgets of the source. Such observations have shown to be an important tool for the seismological monitoring of volcanoes. We developed a novel technique for the non-linear constrained inversion of low frequency seismo-volcanic events. Unconstrained linear inversion methods work well when a dense network of broadband seismometers is available. We propose a new constrained inversion technique, which has shown to be efficient also in a reduced network configuration and a low signal-noise ratio. The waveform inversion is performed in the frequency domain, constraining the source mechanism during the event to vary only in its magnitude. The eigenvectors orientation and the eigenvalue ratio are kept constant. This significantly reduces the number of parameters to invert, making the procedure more stable. The method has been tested over a synthetic dataset, reproducing realistic very-long-period (VLP) signals of Stromboli volcano. The information obtained by performing the synthetic tests is used to assess the reliability of the results obtained on a VLP dataset recorded on Stromboli volcano and on a low frequency events recorded at Vesuvius volcano.

Analysis of cerebral and autonomic response to respiratory events in patients with Sleep Apnea Syndrome

The arousal scoring in Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (OSAS) is important to clarify the impact of the disease on sleep but the currently applied American Academy of Sleep Medicine (AASM) definition may underestimate the subtle alterations of sleep. The aims of the present study were to evaluate the impact of respiratory events on cortical and autonomic arousal response and to quantify the additional value of cyclic alternating pattern (CAP) and pulse wave amplitude (PWA) for a more accurate detection of respiratory events and sleep alterations in OSAS patients. A retrospective revision of 19 polysomnographic recordings of OSAS patients was carried out. Analysis was focused on quantification of apneas (AP), hypopneas (H) and flow limitation (FL) events, and on investigation of cerebral and autonomic activity. Only 41.1% of FL events analyzed in non rapid eye movement met the AASM rules for the definition of respiratory event-related arousal (RERA), while 75.5% of FL events ended with a CAP A phase. The dual response (EEG-PWA) was the most frequent response for all subtypes of respiratory event with a progressive reduction from AP to H and FL. 87.7% of respiratory events with EEG activation showed also a PWA drop and 53,4% of the respiratory events without EEG activation presented a PWA drop. The relationship between the respiratory events and the arousal response is more complex than that suggested by the international classification. In the estimation of the response to respiratory events, the CAP scoring and PWA analysis can offer more extensive information compared to the AASM rules. Our data confirm also that the application of PWA scoring improves the detection of respiratory events and could reduce the underestimation of OSAS severity compared to AASM arousal.

Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.

Holocene tsunami events in the Eastern Ionian Sea - Geoscientific evidence from Cefalonia and the western Peloponnese (Greece)

This study presents geo-scientific evidence for Holocene tsunami impact along the shores of the Eastern Ionian Sea. Cefalonia Island, the Gulf of Kyparissia and the Gialova Lagoon were subject of detailed geo-scientific investigations. It is well known that the coasts of the eastern Mediterranean were hit by the destructive influence of tsunamis in the past. The seismically highly active Hellenic Trench is considered as the most significant tsunami source in the Eastern Ionian Sea. This study focuses on the reconstruction and detection of sedimentary signatures of palaeotsunami events and their influence on the Holocene palaeogeographical evolution. The results of fine grained near coast geo-archives are discussed and interpreted in detail to differentiate between tsunami, storm and sea level highstands as sedimentation processes.rnA multi-method approach was applied using geomorphological, sedimentological, geochemical, geophysical and microfaunal analyses to detect Holocene tsunamigenic impact. Chronological data were based on radiocarbondatings and archaeological age estimations to reconstruct local geo-chronostratigraphies and to correlate them on supra-regional scales.rnDistinct sedimentary signatures of 5 generations of tsunami impact were found along the coasts of Cefalonia in the Livadi coastal plain. The results show that the overall coastal evolution was influenced by tsunamigenic impact that occured around 5700 cal BC (I), 4250 cal BC (II), at the beginning of the 2nd millennium cal BC (III), in the 1st millennium cal BC (IV) and posterior to 780 cal AD (V). Sea level reconstructions and the palaeogeographical evolution show that the local Holocene sea level has never been higher than at present.rnAt the former Mouria Lagoon along the Gulf of Kyparissia almost four allochtonous layers of tsunamigenic origin were identified. The stratigraphical record and palaeogeographical reconstructions show that major environmental coastal changes were linked to these extreme events. At the southern end of the Agoulenitsa Lagoon at modern Kato Samikon high-energy traces were found more than 2 km inland and upt ot 9 m above present sea level. The geo-chronological framework deciphered tsunami landfall for the 5th millennium cal BC (I), mid to late 2nd mill. BC (II), Roman times (1st cent. BC to early 4th cent. AD) (III) and most possible one of the historically well-known 365 AD or 521/551 AD tsunamis (IV).rnCoarse-grained allochthonous sediments of marine origin were found intersecting muddy deposits of the quisecent sediments of the Gialova Lagoon on the southwestern Peloponnese. Radiocarbondatings suggest 6 generations of major tsunami impact. Tsunami generations were dated to around 3300 cal BC (I), around the end of 4th and the beginning of 3rd millennium BC (II), after around 1100 cal BC (III), after the 4th to 2nd cent. BC (IV), between the 8th and early 15th cent. AD (V) and between the mid 14th to beginning of 15th cent. AD (VI). Palaeogeographical and morphological characteristics in the environs of the Gialova Lagoon were controlled by high-energy influence.rnSedimentary findings in all study areas are in good accordance to traces of tsunami events found all over the Ionian Sea. The correlation of geo-chronological data fits very well to coastal Akarnania, the western Peloponnese and finding along the coasts of southern Italy and the Aegean. Supra-regional influence of tsunamigenic impact significant for the investigated sites. The palaeogeographical evolution and palaeo-geomorphological setting of the each study area was strongly affected by tsunamigenic impact.rnThe selected geo-archives represent extraordinary sediment traps for the reconstruction of Holocene coastal evolution. Our result therefore give new insight to the exceptional high tsunami risk in the eastern Mediterranean and emphasize the underestimation of the overall tsunami hazard.

Measurement of the top quark mass in multijet events with the CMS experiment at LHC

La massa del quark top è qui misurata per mezzo dei dati raccolti dall’esperimento CMS in collisioni protone-protone ad LHC, con energia nel centro di massa pari ad 8 TeV. Il campione di dati raccolto corrisponde ad una luminosità integrata pari a 18.2 /fb. La misura è effettuata su eventi con un numero di jet almeno pari a 6, di cui almeno due b-taggati (ovvero identificati come prodotto dell’adronizzazione di due quark bottom). Il valore di massa trovato è di (173.95 +- 0.43 (stat)) GeV/c2, in accordo con la media mondiale. The top quark mass is here measured by using the data that have been collected with the CMS experiment in proton-proton collisions at the LHC, at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV. The dataset which was used, corresponds to an integrated luminosiy of 18.2 /fb. The mass measurement is carried out by using events characterized by six or more jets, two of which identified as being originated by the hadronization of bottom quarks. The result of the measurement of the top quark mass performed here is: (173.95 +- 0.43 (stat)) GeV/c2, in accordance with the recently published world average.

Search for Dark Matter in events with a highly energetic jet and missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root out s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

The experiments at the Large Hadron Collider at the European Centre for Particle Physics, CERN, rely on efficient and reliable trigger systems for singling out interesting events. This thesis documents two online timing monitoring tools for the central trigger of the ATLAS experiment as well as the adaption of the central trigger simulation as part of the upgrade for the second LHC run. Moreover, a search for candidates for so-called Dark Matter, for which there is ample cosmological evidence, is presented. This search for generic weakly interacting massive particles (WIMPs) is based on the roughly 20/fb of proton-proton collisions at a centre-of-mass-energy of sqrt{s}=8 TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector in 2012. The considered signature are events with a highly energetic jet and large missing transverse energy. No significant deviation from the theory prediction is observed. Exclusion limits are derived on parameters of different signal models and compared to the results of other experiments. Finally, the results of a simulation study on the potential of the analysis at sqrt{s}=14 TeV are presented.

Characteristics of multijet t/t events reconstructed by CMS in pp collisions at 13 TeV

We present here a characterization of the Monte Carlo samples used at CMS in the current LHC run (Run 2, sqrt(s)=13 TeV) and we compare them to the ones used in the previous run (Run 1, sqrt(s)=8 TeV). We then use these samples to reconstruct the top quark mass from the all-hadronic decay products and we compare the efficiencies of the standard reconstruction method when applied to the two different samples. We finally find a way to improve the efficiency for 13 TeV samples by using jets reconstructed with a different algorithm, the Cambridge-Aachen algorithm.

Differences in Demographic Characteristics and Risk Factors in Patients With Spontaneous Vertebral Artery Dissections With and Without Ischemic Events

Spontaneous vertebral artery dissection (sVADs) mainly cause cerebral ischemia, with or without associated local symptoms and signs (headache, neck pain, or cervical radiculopathy), or with local symptoms and signs only.

Predicting adverse events in children with fever and chemotherapy-induced neutropenia: the prospective multicenter SPOG 2003 FN study

PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.

Effect of valsartan on the incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular events

It is not known whether drugs that block the renin-angiotensin system reduce the risk of diabetes and cardiovascular events in patients with impaired glucose tolerance.

Effect of nateglinide on the incidence of diabetes and cardiovascular events

The ability of short-acting insulin secretagogues to reduce the risk of diabetes or cardiovascular events in people with impaired glucose tolerance is unknown.