Núcleos de inflação no Brasil e poder preditivo da inflação total

Este trabalho tem por objetivo avaliar para o caso brasileiro uma das mais importantes propriedades esperadas de um núcleo: ser um bom previsor da inflação plena futura. Para tanto, foram utilizados como referência para comparação dois modelos construídos a partir das informações mensais do IPCA e seis modelos VAR referentes a cada uma das medidas de núcleo calculadas pelo Banco Central do Brasil. O desempenho das previsões foi avaliado pela comparação dos resultados do erro quadrático médio e pela aplicação da metodologia de Diebold-Mariano (1995) de comparação de modelos. Os resultados encontrados indicam que o atual conjunto de medidas de núcleos calculado pelo Banco Central não atende pelos critérios utilizados neste trabalho a essa característica desejada.

Estimativa do comportamento de máquinas assíncronas sujeitas a afundamentos de tensão

Os afundamentos de tensão são reduções de curta duração entre o 10% a 90% da magnitude de tensão eficaz. Usualmente, estes afundamentos são associados com falhas no sistema de energia elétrica, mas podem ser causados pela elevada corrente de partida de motores de indução ou energização de transformadores. Apesar de sua curta duração, tais eventos podem causar sérios problemas para alguns equipamentos. As conseqüências dos afundamentos de tensão sobre a máquina assíncrona são: perda de velocidade durante o afundamento e picos de corrente e de conjugado que aparecem na queda de tensão e no instante de restabelecimento. Este estudo visa analisar o comportamento da máquina assíncrona diante de afundamentos de tensão e as características destes, devido à influência do motor assíncrono como carga. Enfocando-se neste ponto, é que foram considerados diferentes tipos de afundamentos devido a diferentes falhas, que produziram quedas de tensão nos terminais da máquina assíncrona com variações na magnitude e no argumento de tensão. As simulações foram realizadas aplicando um método numérico tradicional e um método simplificado, o método simplificado lineariza as equações diferenciais elétricas da máquina assíncrona considerando a velocidade mecânica constante, para o cálculo dos transitórios elétricos no início da queda de tensão e no restabelecimento da mesma. Os transitórios obtidos pelo método numérico tradicional (Runge Kutta quarta ordem) e o método simplificado foram comparados, para verificar a precisão deste método com respeito ao numérico tradicional, concluindo-se, que o método simplificado poderá aplicar-se em máquinas de baixo escorregamento e elevada constante de inércia. Além disso, foram realizados experimentos, submetendo o sistema a diferentes quedas de tensão, considerando diferentes magnitudes e durações no afundamento.

Retrievals of a size parameter for phytoplankton and spectral light absorption by colored detrital matter from water-leaving radiances at SeaWiFS channels in a continental shelf region off Brazil

Many efforts are currently oriented toward extracting more information from ocean color than the chlorophyll a concentration. Among biological parameters potentially accessible from space, estimates of phytoplankton cell size and light absorption by colored detrital matter (CDM) would lead to an indirect assessment of major components of the organic carbon pool in the ocean, which would benefit oceanic carbon budget models. We present here 2 procedures to retrieve simultaneously from ocean color measurements in a limited number of bands, magnitudes, and spectral shapes for both light absorption by CDM and phytoplankton, along with a size parameter for phytoplankton. The performance of the 2 procedures was evaluated using different data sets that correspond to increasing uncertainties: ( 1) measured absorption coefficients of phytoplankton, particulate detritus, and colored dissolved organic matter ( CDOM) and measured chlorophyll a concentrations and ( 2) SeaWiFS upwelling radiance measurements and chlorophyll a concentrations estimated from global algorithms. In situ data were acquired during 3 cruises, differing by their relative proportions in CDM and phytoplankton, over a continental shelf off Brazil. No local information was introduced in either procedure, to make them more generally applicable. Over the study area, the absorption coefficient of CDM at 443 nm was retrieved from SeaWiFS radiances with a relative root mean square error (RMSE) of 33%, and phytoplankton light absorption coefficients in SeaWiFS bands ( from 412 to 510 nm) were retrieved with RMSEs between 28% and 33%. These results are comparable to or better than those obtained by 3 published models. In addition, a size parameter of phytoplankton and the spectral slope of CDM absorption were retrieved with RMSEs of 17% and 22%, respectively. If these methods are applied at a regional scale, the performances could be substantially improved by locally tuning some empirical relationships.

Tolerância de cana-de-açúcar a herbicidas avaliada pela diferença dos tratamentos

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Equação de regressão linear múltipla para estimativa do erro experimental

Este trabalho teve por objetivo estimar equações de regressão linear múltipla tendo, como variáveis explicativas, as demais características avaliadas em experimento de milho e, como variáveis principais, a diferença mínima significativa em percentagem da média (DMS%) e quadrado médio do erro (QMe), para peso de grãos. Com 610 experimentos conduzidos na Rede de Ensaios Nacionais de Competição de Cultivares de Milho, realizados entre 1986 e 1996 (522 experimentos) e em 1997 (88 experimentos), estimaram-se duas equações de regressão, com os 522 experimentos, validando estas pela análise de regressão simples entre os valores reais e os estimados pelas equações, com os 88 restantes, observando que, para a DMS% a equação não estimava o mesmo valor que a fórmula original e, para o QMe, a equação poderia ser utilizada na estimação. Com o teste de Lilliefors, verificou-se que os valores do QMe aderiam à distribuição normal padrão e foi construída uma tabela de classificação dos valores do QMe, baseada nos valores observados na análise da variância dos experimentos e nos estimados pela equação de regressão.

Egg production curve fitting using nonlinear models for selected and nonselected lines of White Leghorn hens

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comparison of logistic and neural network models to fit to the egg production curve of White Leghorn hens

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Growth curve in Santa Ines sheep

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Identificação não linear usando uma rede fuzzy wavelet neural network modificada

In last decades, neural networks have been established as a major tool for the identification of nonlinear systems. Among the various types of networks used in identification, one that can be highlighted is the wavelet neural network (WNN). This network combines the characteristics of wavelet multiresolution theory with learning ability and generalization of neural networks usually, providing more accurate models than those ones obtained by traditional networks. An extension of WNN networks is to combine the neuro-fuzzy ANFIS (Adaptive Network Based Fuzzy Inference System) structure with wavelets, leading to generate the Fuzzy Wavelet Neural Network - FWNN structure. This network is very similar to ANFIS networks, with the difference that traditional polynomials present in consequent of this network are replaced by WNN networks. This paper proposes the identification of nonlinear dynamical systems from a network FWNN modified. In the proposed structure, functions only wavelets are used in the consequent. Thus, it is possible to obtain a simplification of the structure, reducing the number of adjustable parameters of the network. To evaluate the performance of network FWNN with this modification, an analysis of network performance is made, verifying advantages, disadvantages and cost effectiveness when compared to other existing FWNN structures in literature. The evaluations are carried out via the identification of two simulated systems traditionally found in the literature and a real nonlinear system, consisting of a nonlinear multi section tank. Finally, the network is used to infer values of temperature and humidity inside of a neonatal incubator. The execution of such analyzes is based on various criteria, like: mean squared error, number of training epochs, number of adjustable parameters, the variation of the mean square error, among others. The results found show the generalization ability of the modified structure, despite the simplification performed

Comparison of non-linear growth models to describe the growth curve in West African Dwarf sheep

The objectives of this study were to compare the goodness of fit of four non-linear growth models, i.e. Brody, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy, in West African Dwarf (WAD) sheep. A total of 5274 monthly weight records from birth up to 180 days of age from 889 lambs, collected during 2001 to 2004 in Betecoucou breeding farm in Benin were used. In the preliminary analysis, the General Linear Model Procedure of the Statistical Analysis Systems Institute was applied to the dataset to identify the significant effects of the sex of lamb (male and female), type of birth (single and twin), season of birth (rainy season and dry season), parity of dam (1, 2 and 3) and year of birth (2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004) on the observed birth weight and monthly weight up to 6 months of age. The models parameters (A, B and k), coefficient of determination (112), mean square error (MSE) were calculated using language of technical computing package Matlab(R), 2006. The mean values of A, B and k were substituted into each model to calculate the corresponding Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). Among the four growth functions, the Brody model has been selected for its accuracy of fit according to the higher R(2), lower MSE and A/C Finally, the parameters A, B and k were adjusted in Matlab(R) 2006 for the sex of lamb, year of birth, season of birth, birth type and the parity of ewe, providing a specific slope of the Brody growth curve. The results of this study suggest that Brody model can be useful for WAD sheep breeding in Betecoucou farm conditions through growth monitoring.

Previsão do módulo de elasticidade transversal de compósitos unidirecionais através de redes neurais mistas

The aim of this study is to create an artificial neural network (ANN) capable of modeling the transverse elasticity modulus (E2) of unidirectional composites. To that end, we used a dataset divided into two parts, one for training and the other for ANN testing. Three types of architectures from different networks were developed, one with only two inputs, one with three inputs and the third with mixed architecture combining an ANN with a model developed by Halpin-Tsai. After algorithm training, the results demonstrate that the use of ANNs is quite promising, given that when they were compared with those of the Halpín-Tsai mathematical model, higher correlation coefficient values and lower root mean square values were observed

Desenvolvimento de perfis aerodinâmicos a partir de suas características utilizando redes neurais artificiais

One of the current major concerns in engineering is the development of aircrafts that have low power consumption and high performance. So, airfoils that have a high value of Lift Coefficient and a low value for the Drag Coefficient, generating a High-Efficiency airfoil are studied and designed. When the value of the Efficiency increases, the aircraft s fuel consumption decreases, thus improving its performance. Therefore, this work aims to develop a tool for designing of airfoils from desired characteristics, as Lift and Drag coefficients and the maximum Efficiency, using an algorithm based on an Artificial Neural Network (ANN). For this, it was initially collected an aerodynamic characteristics database, with a total of 300 airfoils, from the software XFoil. Then, through the software MATLAB, several network architectures were trained, between modular and hierarchical, using the Back-propagation algorithm and the Momentum rule. For data analysis, was used the technique of cross- validation, evaluating the network that has the lowest value of Root Mean Square (RMS). In this case, the best result was obtained for a hierarchical architecture with two modules and one layer of hidden neurons. The airfoils developed for that network, in the regions of lower RMS, were compared with the same airfoils imported into the software XFoil

Estimativas das componentes da radiação solar incidente em superfícies inclinadas baseadas na radiação global horizontal

Statistics equations and validations with groups of annual and monthly data were evaluated for global, direct and diffuse solar radiation components incident on the tilted surface to 12.85, 22.85 and 32.85 degrees with the face North, in climate and geographical conditions of Botucatu, SP. It was employed the fractions of three components of extraterrestrial radiation in correlation with the coefficient clearness index horizontal plane, in a database of April/1998 to December/2007, whose measures at different periods in three inclinations, however concomitant to the horizontal plane. Increasing the angle of the surface led to increased scattering of the daily values of clearness index for inclined and horizontal surfaces. In annual groups, the lower performances were observed in the estimation of inclined daily diffuse radiation, with maximum Root Mean Square Error to 3.89 MJ m(-2) d(-1) (43.65%) and adjustments around 62%. In estimates of global and direct components of solar radiation on inclined planes, both annual and monthly equations can be applied, with performance dependents to climatic conditions.

Estimativa da radiação global incidente em superfícies inclinadas por modelos isotrópicos e índice de claridade

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desempenho de modelos isotrópicos de estimativa do total de radiação incidente em superfícies inclinadas e propor estimativas com base nas correlações entre os índices de claridade horizontais e inclinados, em diferentes condições de cobertura de céu, em Botucatu, SP. Foram avaliadas superfícies com inclinação de 12,85º, 22,85º e 32,85º, pelos modelos isotrópicos propostos por Liu & Jordan, Revfeim, Jimenez & Castro, Koronakis, a teoria Circunsolar, e a correlação entre os índices de claridade horizontais e inclinados, para diferentes condições de cobertura de céu. O banco de dados de radiação global utilizado corresponde ao período de 1998 a 2007, com intervalos de 4/1998 a 8/2001 para a inclinação de 22,85º, de 9/2001 a 2/2003 para 12,85º e de 1/2004 a 12/2007 para 32,85º. O desempenho dos modelos foi avaliado pelos indicadores estatísticos erro absoluto médio, raiz quadrada do quadrado médio do erro e índice d de Wilmott. Os modelos de Liu & Jordan, Koronakis e de Revfeim apresentaram os melhores desempenhos em dias nublados, em todas as inclinações. As coberturas de céu parcialmente difuso e parcialmente aberto, nos maiores ângulos de inclinação, apresentaram as maiores dispersões entre valores estimados e medidos, independentemente do modelo. As equações estatísticas apresentaram bons resultados em aplicações com agrupamentos de dados mensais.

Intercomparison of integrated water vapor estimates from multisensors in the amazonian region

Water vapor is an atmospheric component of major interest in atmospheric science because it affects the energy budget and plays a key role in several atmospheric processes. The Amazonian region is one of the most humid on the planet, and land use change is able to affect the hydrologic cycle in several areas and consequently to generate severe modifications in the global climate. Within this context, accessing the error associated with atmospheric humidity measurement and the validation of the integrated water vapor (IWV) quantification from different techniques is very important in this region. Using data collected during the Radiation, Cloud, and Climate Interactions in Amazonia during the Dry-to-Wet Transition Season (RACCI/DRY-TO-WET), an experiment carried out in southwestern Amazonia in 2002, this paper presents quality analysis of IWV measurements from RS80 radiosondes, a suite of GPS receivers, an Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) solar radiometer, and humidity sounding from the Humidity Sounder for Brazil (HSB) aboard the Aqua satellite. When compared to RS80 IWV values, the root-mean-square (RMS) from the AERONET and GPS results are of the order of 2.7 and 3.8 kg m(-2), respectively. The difference generated between IWV from the GPS receiver and RS80 during the daytime was larger than that of the nighttime period because of the combination of the influence of high ionospheric activity during the RACCI experiment and a daytime drier bias from the RS80.