Real-time performance modelling of a sustained attention to response task

Vigilance declines when exposed to highly predictable and uneventful tasks. Monotonous tasks provide little cognitive and motor stimulation and contribute to human errors. This paper aims to model and detect vigilance decline in real time through participant’s reaction times during a monotonous task. A lab-based experiment adapting the Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART) is conducted to quantify the effect of monotony on overall performance. Then relevant parameters are used to build a model detecting hypovigilance throughout the experiment. The accuracy of different mathematical models are compared to detect in real-time – minute by minute - the lapses in vigilance during the task. We show that monotonous tasks can lead to an average decline in performance of 45%. Furthermore, vigilance modelling enables to detect vigilance decline through reaction times with an accuracy of 72% and a 29% false alarm rate. Bayesian models are identified as a better model to detect lapses in vigilance as compared to Neural Networks and Generalised Linear Mixed Models. This modelling could be used as a framework to detect vigilance decline of any human performing monotonous tasks.

Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

Discrete choice modelling of combined mode and departure time

Typical daily decision-making process of individuals regarding use of transport system involves mainly three types of decisions: mode choice, departure time choice and route choice. This paper focuses on the mode and departure time choice processes and studies different model specifications for a combined mode and departure time choice model. The paper compares different sets of explanatory variables as well as different model structures to capture the correlation among alternatives and taste variations among the commuters. The main hypothesis tested in this paper is that departure time alternatives are also correlated by the amount of delay. Correlation among different alternatives is confirmed by analyzing different nesting structures as well as error component formulations. Random coefficient logit models confirm the presence of the random taste heterogeneity across commuters. Mixed nested logit models are estimated to jointly account for the random taste heterogeneity and the correlation among different alternatives. Results indicate that accounting for the random taste heterogeneity as well as inter-alternative correlation improves the model performance.

Performance evaluation of an adaptive travel time prediction model

This paper presents a travel time prediction model and evaluates its performance and transferability. Advanced Travelers Information Systems (ATIS) are gaining more and more importance, increasing the need for accurate, timely and useful information to the travelers. Travel time information quantifies the traffic condition in an easy to understand way for the users. The proposed travel time prediction model is based on an efficient use of nearest neighbor search. The model is calibrated for optimal performance using Genetic Algorithms. Results indicate better performance by using the proposed model than the presently used naïve model.

Estimation of travel time on urban networks with midlink sources and sinks

This paper presents a methodology for estimation of average travel time on signalized urban networks by integrating cumulative plots and probe data. This integration aims to reduce the relative deviations in the cumulative plots due to midlink sources and sinks. During undersaturated traffic conditions, the concept of a virtual probe is introduced, and therefore, accurate travel time can be obtained when a real probe is unavailable. For oversaturated traffic conditions, only one probe per travel time estimation interval—360 s or 3% of vehicles traversing the link as a probe—has the potential to provide accurate travel time.

Cluster-based network model for time-course gene expression data

We propose a model-based approach to unify clustering and network modeling using time-course gene expression data. Specifically, our approach uses a mixture model to cluster genes. Genes within the same cluster share a similar expression profile. The network is built over cluster-specific expression profiles using state-space models. We discuss the application of our model to simulated data as well as to time-course gene expression data arising from animal models on prostate cancer progression. The latter application shows that with a combined statistical/bioinformatics analyses, we are able to extract gene-to-gene relationships supported by the literature as well as new plausible relationships.

Shadowlands (Directed by Caroline Heim)

The controversial love affair of CS Lewis, Oxford scholar and writer of the Narnia Chronicles, is set in a constellation of music, sculpture and mime. CS Lewis’s intriguing relationship with poet Joy Davidman moves, inspires and confronts us with the big questions. Beauty contrasts with the ephemeral land of the shadows. Crossbow’s adaption of William Nicholson’s soulful and witty play explores the joy and the grief of “experience: that most brutal of teachers.” Showcasing the abilities of Brisbane and Sydney actors, the company that brought you The Miracle Worker and Anne of the Thousand Days, will quicken your senses and stir your heart with Shadowlands. All performances have a tactile tour of the stage 20 minutes before the start time of the show. Special signed performance for hearing impaired patrons Thur 5 Aug 2pm

Structural health monitoring for long span bridges : Hong Kong experience and continuing onto Australia

Structural health monitoring has been accepted as a justified effort for long-span bridges, which are critical to a region's economic vitality. As the most heavily instrumented bridge project in the world, WASHMS - Wind And Structural Health Monitoring System has been developed and installed on the cable-supported bridges in Hong Kong (Wong and Ni 2009a). This chapter aims to share some of the experience gained through the operations and studies on the application of WASHMS. It is concluded that Structural Health Monitoring should be composed of two main components: Structural Performance Monitoring (SPM) and Structural Safety Evaluation (SSE). As an example to illustrate how the WASHMS could be used for structural performance monitoring, the layout of the sensory system installed on the Tsing Ma Bridge is briefly described. To demonstrate the two broad approaches of structural safety evaluation - Structural Health Assessment and Damage Detection, three examples in the application of SHM information are presented. These three examples can be considered as pioneer works for the research and development of the structural diagnosis and prognosis tools required by the structural health monitoring for monitoring and evaluation applications.

An epidemiological study of the relationship between time to surgery and health status for elderly patients with a hip fracture

A hip fracture causes permanent changes to life style for older people. Further, two important mortality indicators found post operatively for this group include, the time until surgery after fracture, and pre-operative health status prior to surgery, yet no research is available investigating relationships between time to surgery and health status. The researchers aimed to establish the health status risks for patients aged over 65 years with a non-pathological hip fracture to guide nursing care interventions. A prospective cohort design was used to investigate relationships between time to surgery and measures on pre-operative health status indicators including, skin integrity risk, vigor, mental state, bowel function and continence. Twenty-nine patients with a mean age in years of 81.93 (SD,9.49), were recruited. The mean number of hours from time 1 assessment to surgery was 52.72 (SD,58.35) and the range was 1 hour to 219 hours. At Time 2, the mean scores of vigor and skin integrity risk were significantly higher, indicating poorer health status. A change in health status occurred but possibly due to the small sample size it was difficult to relate this result to time. However the results informed preoperative care prior to surgery, for this group.