Describing seasonal variability in the distribution of daily effective temperatures for 1985-2009 compared to 1904-1984 for De Bilt, Holland

This paper proposes a method for describing the distribution of observed temperatures on any day of the year such that the distribution and summary statistics of interest derived from the distribution vary smoothly through the year. The method removes the noise inherent in calculating summary statistics directly from the data thus easing comparisons of distributions and summary statistics between different periods. The method is demonstrated using daily effective temperatures (DET) derived from observations of temperature and wind speed at De Bilt, Holland. Distributions and summary statistics are obtained from 1985 to 2009 and compared to the period 1904–1984. A two-stage process first obtains parameters of a theoretical probability distribution, in this case the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution, which describes the distribution of DET on any day of the year. Second, linear models describe seasonal variation in the parameters. Model predictions provide parameters of the GEV distribution, and therefore summary statistics, that vary smoothly through the year. There is evidence of an increasing mean temperature, a decrease in the variability in temperatures mainly in the winter and more positive skew, more warm days, in the summer. In the winter, the 2% point, the value below which 2% of observations are expected to fall, has risen by 1.2 °C, in the summer the 98% point has risen by 0.8 °C. Medians have risen by 1.1 and 0.9 °C in winter and summer, respectively. The method can be used to describe distributions of future climate projections and other climate variables. Further extensions to the methodology are suggested.

“There’s something very familiar about all this”: generic play and performance in the Back to the Future trilogy (Robert Zemeckis, 1985, 1989, 1990)

The Back to the Future Trilogy incorporates several different generic elements, including aspects of the fifties teen movie, science fiction, comedy and the western. These different modes playfully intertwine with each other creating a complex world of repetitions, echoes and modulations. This essay seeks to interrogate the construction of generic elements and the play between them through a close analysis of a repeated performance. Genre is signalled through various strategies employed within the construction of mise-en-scène, a significant portion of this, as I would like to argue, is transmitted through performance. The material detail of a performance – incorporating gesture, movement, voice, and even surrounding elements such as costume – as well as the way it its presented within a film is key to the establishment, invocation and coherence of genre. Furthermore, attention to the complexity of performance details, particularly in the manner in which they reverberate across texts, demonstrates the intricacy of genre and its inherent mutability. The Back to the Future trilogy represents a specific interest in the flexibility of genre. Within each film, and especially across all three, aspects of various genres are interlaced through both visual and narrative detail, thus constructing a dense layer of references both within and without the texts. To explore this patterning in more detail I will interrogate the contribution of performance to generic play through close analysis of Thomas F. Wilson’s performance of Biff/Griff/Burford Tannen and his central encounter with Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) in each film. These moments take place in a fifties diner, a 1980s retro diner and a saloon respectively, each space contributing the similarities and differences in each repetition. Close attention to Wilson’s performance of each related character, which contains both modulations and repetitions used specifically to place each film’s central generic theme, demonstrates how embedded the play between genres and their flexibility is within the trilogy.

Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985-2012

Combining satellite data, atmospheric reanalyses and climate model simulations, variability in the net downward radiative flux imbalance at the top of Earth's atmosphere (N) is reconstructed and linked to recent climate change. Over the 1985-1999 period mean N (0.34 ± 0.67 Wm–2) is lower than for the 2000-2012 period (0.62 ± 0.43 Wm–2, uncertainties at 90% confidence level) despite the slower rate of surface temperature rise since 2000. While the precise magnitude of N remains uncertain, the reconstruction captures interannual variability which is dominated by the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Monthly deseasonalized interannual variability in N generated by an ensemble of 9 climate model simulations using prescribed sea surface temperature and radiative forcings and from the satellite-based reconstruction is significantly correlated (r ∼ 0.6) over the 1985-2012 period.

Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012

Two methods are developed to estimate net surface energy fluxes based upon satellite-based reconstructions of radiative fluxes at the top of atmosphere and the atmospheric energy tendencies and transports from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Method 1 applies the mass adjusted energy divergence from ERA-Interim while method 2 estimates energy divergence based upon the net energy difference at the top of atmosphere and the surface from ERA-Interim. To optimise the surface flux and its variability over ocean, the divergences over land are constrained to match the monthly area mean surface net energy flux variability derived from a simple relationship between the surface net energy flux and the surface temperature change. The energy divergences over the oceans are then adjusted to remove an unphysical residual global mean atmospheric energy divergence. The estimated net surface energy fluxes are compared with other data sets from reanalysis and atmospheric model simulations. The spatial correlation coefficients of multi-annual means between the estimations made here and other data sets are all around 0.9. There are good agreements in area mean anomaly variability over the global ocean, but discrepancies in the trend over the eastern Pacific are apparent.

Trends in systemic lupus erythematosus mortality rates in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil from 1985 to 2004

Objectives To estimate mortality rates and mortality trends from SLE in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Material and methods The official data bank was used to study all deaths occurred from 1985 to 2004 in which SLE was mentioned as the underlying cause of death. Besides the overall mortality rate, the annual gender- and age-specific mortality rates were estimated for each calendar year by age bracket (0-19 years, 20-39 years, 40-59 years and over 60 years) and for the sub-periods 1985-1995 (first) and 1996-2004 (second), by decades. Chi-square test was used to compare the mortality rates between the two periods, as well the mortality rates according to educational level considering years of study. Pearson correlation coefficient test was used to analyse mortality trends. The crude rates were adjusted for age by the direct method, using the standard Brazilian population in 2000. Results A total of 2,601 deaths (90% female) attributed to SLE were analysed. The mean age at death was significantly higher in the second than in the first sub-period (36.6 +/- 15.6 years vs. 33.9 +/- 14.0 years; p<0.001). The overall adjusted mortality rate was 3.8 deaths/million habitants/year for the entire period and 3.4 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the first and 4.0 deaths/million inhabitants/year for the second sub-period (p<0.001). In each calendar year, the mortality rate was significantly lower for the better educated group. Throughout the period, there was a significant increase in mortality rates only among women over 40. Conclusion SLE patients living in the state of Silo Paulo still die at younger ages than those living in developed countries. Our data do not support the theory that there was an improvement in the SLE mortality rate in the last 20 years in the state of Sao Paulo. Socio-economic factors, such as the difficulty to get medical care and adequate treatment, may be the main factors to explain the worst prognosis for our patients.

Chagas disease-related mortality trends, state of Sao Paulo, Brazil, 1985 to 2006: a study using multiple causes of death

Objectives. To study mortality trends related to Chagas disease taking into account all mentions of this cause listed on any line or part of the death certificate. Methods. Mortality data for 1985-2006 were obtained from the multiple cause-of-death database maintained by the Sao Paulo State Data Analysis System (SEADE). Chagas disease was classified as the underlying cause-of-death or as an associated cause-of-death (non-underlying). The total number of times Chagas disease was mentioned on the death certificates was also considered. Results. During this 22-year period, there were 40 002 deaths related to Chagas disease: 34 917 (87.29%) classified as the underlying cause-of-death and 5 085 (12.71%) as an associated cause-of-death. The results show a 56.07% decline in the death rate due to Chagas disease as the underlying cause and a stabilized rate as associated cause. The number of deaths was 44.5% higher among men. The fact that 83.5% of the deaths occurred after 45 years of age reflects a cohort effect. The main causes associated with Chagas disease as the underlying cause-of-death were direct complications due to cardiac involvement, such as conduction disorders, arrhythmias and heart failure. Ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disorders and neoplasms were the main underlying causes when Chagas was an associated cause-of-death. Conclusions. For the total mentions to Chagas disease, a 51.34% decline in the death rate was observed, whereas the decline in the number of deaths was only 5.91%, being lower among women and showing a shift of deaths to older age brackets. Using the multiple cause-of-death method contributed to the understanding of the natural history of Chagas disease.

Cladistic analysis of the Stygninae and description of a new species of Protimesius Roewer, 1913 (Opiliones: Stygnidae)

A new species of Stygnidae is described from the state of Bahia, Brazil. Protimesius bahiensis sp. nov. can be distinguished from the remaining species of the genus by the combination of: male femur IV unarmed and cylindrical; male patella IV with a row of large dorsal acute tubercles, increasing in size distally and male tibia IV with one mesodistal tubercle; ventral plate of the penis with three pairs of distal curved setae and one pair of intermediate setae, smaller than the rest. A cladistic analysis of the subfamily is presented. Stygninae is divided in two groups of genera: (Ricstygnus, Stygnus, Sickesia), with a wide distribution and (Pickeliana (Protimesius (Phareus (Stenophareus (Auranus (Verrucastygnus, Stenostygnoides)))))), associated to the Guiana Shield, Amazon basin and Northeastern Brazil. The monophyly of Protimesius is supported by the apex of pedipalpal tibia sockets bifid (homoplastically present in Verrucastygnus and Stenostygnoides) and by the presence of scopulae with non-spatulated hairs.

Tectonic fabric revealed by AARM of the proterozoic mafic dike swarm in the Salvador city (Bahia state): Sao Francisco Craton, NE Brazil

Magnetic fabric and rock magnetism studies were performed on 25 unmetamorphosed mafic dikes of the Meso-Late Proterozoic (similar to 1.02 Ga) dike swarm from Salvador (Bahia State, NE Brazil). This area lies in the north-eastern part of the Sao Francisco Craton, which was dominantly formed/reworked during the Transamazonian orogeny (2.14-1.94 Ga). The dikes crop out along the beaches and in quarries around Salvador city, and cut across both amphibolite dikes and granulites. Their widths range from a few centimeters up to 30 m with an average of similar to 4 m, and show two main trends N 140-190 and N 100-120 with vertical dips. Magnetic fabrics were determined using both anisotropy of low-field magnetic susceptibility (AMS) and anisotropy of anhysteretic remanent magnetization (AARM). The magnetic mineralogy was investigated by many experiments including remanent magnetization measurements at variable low temperatures (10-300 K), Mossbauer spectroscopy, high temperature magnetization curves (25-700 degrees C) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The rock magnetism study suggests pseudo-single-domain magnetite grains carrying the bulk magnetic susceptibility and AARM fabrics. The magnetite grains found in these dikes are large and we discard the presence of single-domain grains. Its composition is close to stoichiometric with low Ti substitution, and its Verwey transition occurs around 120 K. The main AMS fabric recognized in the swarm is so-called normal, in which the K(max)-K(int) plane is parallel to the dike plane and the magnetic foliation pole K(min)) is perpendicular to it. This fabric is interpreted as due to magma flow, and analysis of the K m inclination permitted to infer that approximately 80% of the dikes were fed by horizontal or sub-horizontal flows (K(max) < 30 degrees). This interpretation is supported by structural field evidence found in five dikes. In addition, based on the plunge of K(max), two mantle sources could be inferred; one of them which fed about 80% of the swarm would be located in the southern part of the region, and the other underlied the Valeria quarry. However, for all dikes the AARM tensors are not coaxial with AMS fabrics and show a magnetic lineation (AARM(max)) oriented to N30-60E, suggesting that magnetite grains were rotated clockwise from dike plane. The orientation of AARM lineation is similar to the orientation of a system of faults in which the Salvador normal fault is the most important. These faults were formed during Cretaceous rifting in the Reconcavo-Tucano-jatoba assemblage that corresponds to an aborted intra-continental rift formed during the opening of the South Atlantic. Therefore, the AARM fabric found for the Salvador dikes is probably tectonic in origin and suggests that the dike swarm was affected by the important tectonic event responsible for the break-up of the Gondwanaland. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Too Many Bad Cooks Spoiling the Broth? Effectiveness of NGOs in Addressing Child Labour in El Salvador

The reaction of the first world to the persevering plight of a large part of the third world varies. In response to the sometimes glaring disparities, many international organizations and multinational corporations have recently adopted a pro-development rhetoric with relation to the problem of global poverty. However, the rhetoric rarely translates into action. As David Bacon discusses, leaders of corporations and organizations now tend to conclude their speeches by expressing a desire to reduce the suffering of the third world. However, when it comes to agreeing on specific concessions that could indeed improve the world-wide economic situation, first world countries are reluctant to act. A good example of this type of behavior is the current negotiation of the WTO, the “development round of Doha,” in which the United States along with the European Union pressure countries of the developing South to open up their markets, while at the same time refusing to remove or even decrease their own agricultural subsidies. The first world civil society observes the behavior of international organizations and western based multinational corporations as ineffectual. Taking the matter in its own hands, especially in the past couple of decades, this civil society has created a countless number of development-oriented nongovernmental organizations. These are supposed to compensate for the lack of action by international organizations. Development NGOs are believed to be more locally responsive as well as free of business or political considerations in choosing their strategies, and thus generally more efficient than IOs. However, if they really were how they are alleged to be, the problems of the third world would already be ameliorated by a significant amount, if not completely eradicated. Do development-NGOs indeed possess the characteristics that they claim to possess? What is their real affect on human rights? And how effective are they in their work?