Model experiment on optimal size of a fish stock with environmental uncertainties

We analyze the effect of environmental uncertainties on optimal fishery management in a bio-economic fishery model. Unlike most of the literature on resource economics, but in line with ecological models, we allow the different biological processes of survival and recruitment to be affected differently by environmental uncertainties. We show that the overall effect of uncertainty on the optimal size of a fish stock is ambiguous, depending on the prudence of the value function. For the case of a risk-neutral fishery manager, the overall effect depends on the relative magnitude of two opposing effects, the 'convex-cost effect' and the 'gambling effect'. We apply the analysis to the Baltic cod and the North Sea herring fisheries, concluding that for risk neutral agents the net effect of environmental uncertainties on the optimal size of these fish stocks is negative, albeit small in absolute value. Under risk aversion, the effect on optimal stock size is positive for sufficiently high coefficients of constant relative risk aversion.

Planimetric ice-flow convergence and flow-orthonormal strain rate across the Antarctic Ice Sheet, with links to model result files

Fast-flowing ice streams discharge most of the ice from the interior of the Antarctic Ice Sheet coastward. Understanding how their tributary organisation is governed and evolves is essential for developing reliable models of the ice sheet's response to climate change. Despite much research on ice-stream mechanics, this problem is unsolved, because the complexity of flow within and across the tributary networks has hardly been interrogated. Here I present the first map of planimetric flow convergence across the ice sheet, calculated from satellite measurements of ice surface velocity, and use it to explore this complexity. The convergence map of Antarctica elucidates how ice-stream tributaries draw ice from the interior. It also reveals curvilinear zones of convergence along lateral shear margins of streaming, and abundant convergence ripples associated with nonlinear ice rheology and changes in bed topography and friction. Flow convergence on ice-stream tributaries and their feeding zones is markedly uneven, and interspersed with divergence at distances of the order of kilometres. For individual drainage basins as well as the ice sheet as a whole, the range of convergence and divergence decreases systematically with flow speed, implying that fast flow cannot converge or diverge as much as slow flow. I therefore deduce that flow in ice-stream networks is subject to mechanical regulation that limits flow-orthonormal strain rates. These properties and the gridded data of convergence and flow-orthonormal strain rate in this archive provide targets for ice- sheet simulations and motivate more research into the origin and dynamics of tributarization.

Northeast Greenland - Digital Bathymetric Compilation, with links to DBM in ArcGIS format

A new digital bathymetric model (DBM) for the Northeast Greenland (NEG) continental shelf (74°N - 81°N) is presented. The DBM has a grid cell size of 250 m × 250 m and incorporates bathymetric data from 30 multibeam cruises, more than 20 single-beam cruises and first reflector depths from industrial seismic lines. The new DBM substantially improves the bathymetry compared to older models. The DBM not only allows a better delineation of previously known seafloor morphology but, in addition, reveals the presence of previously unmapped morphological features including glacially derived troughs, fjords, grounding-zone wedges, and lateral moraines. These submarine landforms are used to infer the past extent and ice-flow dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet during the last full-glacial period of the Quaternary and subsequent ice retreat across the continental shelf. The DBM reveals cross-shelf bathymetric troughs that may enable the inflow of warm Atlantic water masses across the shelf, driving enhanced basal melting of the marine-terminating outlet glaciers draining the ice sheet to the coast in Northeast Greenland. Knolls, sinks, and hummocky seafloor on the middle shelf are also suggested to be related to salt diapirism. North-south-orientated elongate depressions are identified that probably relate to ice-marginal processes in combination with erosion caused by the East Greenland Current. A single guyot-like peak has been discovered and is interpreted to have been produced during a volcanic event approximately 55 Ma ago.

Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and buffer factor from model run 2012-2100, with links to model results

The Southern Ocean is a key region for global carbon uptake and is characterised by a strong seasonality with the annual CO2 uptake being mediated by biological carbon draw-down in summer. Here, we show that the contribution of biology to CO2 uptake will become even more important until 2100. This is the case even if biological production remains unaltered and can be explained by the decreasing buffer capacity of the ocean as its carbon content increases. The same amount of biological carbon draw-down leads to a more than twice as large reduction in CO2 (aq) concentration and hence to a larger CO2 gradient between ocean and atmosphere that drives the gas-exchange. While the winter uptake south of 44°S changes little, the summer uptake increases largely and is responsible for the annual mean response. The combination of decreasing buffer capacity and strong seasonality of biological carbon draw-down introduces a strong and increasing seasonality in the anthropogenic carbon uptake.