Gráfico de controle modificado para processos com estruturas complexas de autocorrelação

This work proposes a modified control chart incorporating concepts of time series analysis. Specifically, we considerer Gaussian mixed transition distribution (GMTD) models. The GMTD models are a more general class than the autorregressive (AR) family, in the sense that the autocorrelated processes may present flat stretches, bursts or outliers. In this scenario traditional Shewhart charts are no longer appropriate tools to monitoring such processes. Therefore, Vasilopoulos and Stamboulis (1978) proposed a modified version of those charts, considering proper control limits based on autocorrelated processes. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed technique a comparison with a traditional Shewhart chart (which ignores the autocorrelation structure of the process), a AR(1) Shewhart control chart and a GMTD Shewhart control chart was made. An analytical expression for the process variance, as well as control limits were developed for a particular GMTD model. The ARL was used as a criteria to measure the efficiency of control charts. The comparison was made based on a series generated according to a GMTD model. The results point to the direction that the modified Shewhart GMTD charts have a better performance than the AR(1) Shewhart and the traditional Shewhart.

Análise wavelet em curvas de luz estelares de sistemas binários da missão espacial CoRoT

Binary systems are key environments to study the fundamental properties of stars. In this work, we analyze 99 binary systems identified by the CoRoT space mission. From the study of the phase diagrams of these systems, our sample is divided into three groups: those whose systems are characterized by the variability relative to the binary eclipses; those presenting strong modulations probably due to the presence of stellar spots on the surface of star; and those whose systems have variability associated with the expansion and contraction of the surface layers. For eclipsing binary stars, phase diagrams are used to estimate the classification in regard to their morphology, based on the study of equipotential surfaces. In this context, to determine the rotation period, and to identify the presence of active regions, and to investigate if the star exhibits or not differential rotation and study stellar pulsation, we apply the wavelet procedure. The wavelet transform has been used as a powerful tool in the treatment of a large number of problems in astrophysics. Through the wavelet transform, one can perform an analysis in time-frequency light curves rich in details that contribute significantly to the study of phenomena associated with the rotation, the magnetic activity and stellar pulsations. In this work, we apply Morlet wavelet (6th order), which offers high time and frequency resolution and obtain local (energy distribution of the signal) and global (time integration of local map) wavelet power spectra. Using the wavelet analysis, we identify thirteen systems with periodicities related to the rotational modulation, besides the beating pattern signature in the local wavelet map of five pulsating stars over the entire time span.

Análise wavelet em curvas de luz estelares de sistemas binários da missão espacial CoRoT

Binary systems are key environments to study the fundamental properties of stars. In this work, we analyze 99 binary systems identified by the CoRoT space mission. From the study of the phase diagrams of these systems, our sample is divided into three groups: those whose systems are characterized by the variability relative to the binary eclipses; those presenting strong modulations probably due to the presence of stellar spots on the surface of star; and those whose systems have variability associated with the expansion and contraction of the surface layers. For eclipsing binary stars, phase diagrams are used to estimate the classification in regard to their morphology, based on the study of equipotential surfaces. In this context, to determine the rotation period, and to identify the presence of active regions, and to investigate if the star exhibits or not differential rotation and study stellar pulsation, we apply the wavelet procedure. The wavelet transform has been used as a powerful tool in the treatment of a large number of problems in astrophysics. Through the wavelet transform, one can perform an analysis in time-frequency light curves rich in details that contribute significantly to the study of phenomena associated with the rotation, the magnetic activity and stellar pulsations. In this work, we apply Morlet wavelet (6th order), which offers high time and frequency resolution and obtain local (energy distribution of the signal) and global (time integration of local map) wavelet power spectra. Using the wavelet analysis, we identify thirteen systems with periodicities related to the rotational modulation, besides the beating pattern signature in the local wavelet map of five pulsating stars over the entire time span.

Updating of an instrumented building model considering amplitude dependence of dynamic resonant properties extracted from seismic response records

The authors would like to express their gratitude to their supporters. Drs Jim Cousins, S.R. Uma and Ken Gledhill facilitated this research by providing access to GeoNet seismic data and structural building information. Piotr Omenzetter’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research.

Updating of an instrumented building model considering amplitude dependence of dynamic resonant properties extracted from seismic response records

The authors would like to express their gratitude to their supporters. Drs Jim Cousins, S.R. Uma and Ken Gledhill facilitated this research by providing access to GeoNet seismic data and structural building information. Piotr Omenzetter’s work within the Lloyd’s Register Foundation Centre for Safety and Reliability Engineering at the University of Aberdeen is supported by Lloyd’s Register Foundation. The Foundation helps to protect life and property by supporting engineering-related education, public engagement and the application of research.

Dynamic method of stiffness identification in impacting systems for percussive drilling applications

Peer reviewed

Presenting SAPUSS: solving aerosol problem by using synergistic strategies in Barcelona, Spain

This paper presents the summary of the key objectives, instrumentation and logistic details, goals, and initial scientific findings of the European Marie Curie Action SAPUSS project carried out in the western Mediterranean Basin (WMB) during September-October in autumn 2010. The key SAPUSS objective is to deduce aerosol source characteristics and to understand the atmospheric processes responsible for their generations and transformations - both horizontally and vertically in the Mediterranean urban environment. In order to achieve so, the unique approach of SAPUSS is the concurrent measurements of aerosols with multiple techniques occurring simultaneously in six monitoring sites around the city of Barcelona (NE Spain): a main road traffic site, two urban background sites, a regional background site and two urban tower sites (150 m and 545 m above sea level, 150 m and 80 m above ground, respectively). SAPUSS allows us to advance our knowledge sensibly of the atmospheric chemistry and physics of the urban Mediterranean environment. This is well achieved only because of both the three dimensional spatial scale and the high sampling time resolution used. During SAPUSS different meteorological regimes were encountered, including warm Saharan, cold Atlantic, wet European and stagnant regional ones. The different meteorology of such regimes is herein described. Additionally, we report the trends of the parameters regulated by air quality purposes (both gaseous and aerosol mass concentrations); and we also compare the six monitoring sites. High levels of traffic-related gaseous pollutants were measured at the urban ground level monitoring sites, whereas layers of tropospheric ozone were recorded at tower levels. Particularly, tower level night-time average ozone concentrations (80 +/- 25 mu g m(-3)) were up to double compared to ground level ones. The examination of the vertical profiles clearly shows the predominant influence of NOx on ozone concentrations, and a source of ozone aloft. Analysis of the particulate matter (PM) mass concentrations shows an enhancement of coarse particles (PM2.5-10) at the urban ground level (+64 %, average 11.7 mu g m(-3)) but of fine ones (PM1) at urban tower level (+28 %, average 14.4 mu g m(-3)). These results show complex dynamics of the size-resolved PM mass at both horizontal and vertical levels of the study area. Preliminary modelling findings reveal an underestimation of the fine accumulation aerosols. In summary, this paper lays the foundation of SAPUSS, an integrated study of relevance to many other similar urban Mediterranean coastal environment sites.

A Study of How Economic Attitudes Are Shaped by Environmental Shocks and Life Experiences

Social attitudes, attitudes toward financial risk and attitudes toward deferred gratification are thought to influence many important economic decisions over the life-course. In economic theory, these attitudes are key components in diverse models of behavior, including collective action, saving and investment decisions and occupational choice. The relevance of these attitudes have been confirmed empirically. Yet, the factors that influence them are not well understood. This research evaluates how these attitudes are affected by large disruptive events, namely, a natural disaster and a civil conflict, and also by an individual-specific life event, namely, having children.

By implementing rigorous empirical strategies drawing on rich longitudinal datasets, this research project advances our understanding of how life experiences shape these attitudes. Moreover, compelling evidence is provided that the observed changes in attitudes are likely to reflect changes in preferences given that they are not driven just by changes in financial circumstances. Therefore the findings of this research project also contribute to the discussion of whether preferences are really fixed, a usual assumption in economics.

In the first chapter, I study how altruistic and trusting attitudes are affected by exposure to the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami as long as ten years after the disaster occurred. Establishing a causal relationship between natural disasters and attitudes presents several challenges as endogenous exposure and sample selection can confound the analysis. I take on these challenges by exploiting plausibly exogenous variation in exposure to the tsunami and by relying on a longitudinal dataset representative of the pre-tsunami population in two districts of Aceh, Indonesia. The sample is drawn from the Study of the Tsunami Aftermath and Recovery (STAR), a survey with data collected both before and after the disaster and especially designed to identify the impact of the tsunami. The altruistic and trusting attitudes of the respondents are measured by their behavior in the dictator and trust games. I find that witnessing closely the damage caused by the tsunami but without suffering severe economic damage oneself increases altruistic and trusting behavior, particularly towards individuals from tsunami affected communities. Having suffered severe economic damage has no impact on altruistic behavior but may have increased trusting behavior. These effects do not seem to be caused by the consequences of the tsunami on people’s financial situation. Instead they are consistent with how experiences of loss and solidarity may have shaped social attitudes by affecting empathy and perceptions of who is deserving of aid and trust.

In the second chapter, co-authored with Ryan Brown, Duncan Thomas and Andrea Velasquez, we investigate how attitudes toward financial risk are affected by elevated levels of insecurity and uncertainty brought on by the Mexican Drug War. To conduct our analysis, we pair the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS), a rich longitudinal dataset ideally suited for our purposes, with a dataset on homicide rates at the month and municipality-level. The homicide rates capture well the overall crime environment created by the drug war. The MxFLS elicits risk attitudes by asking respondents to choose between hypothetical gambles with different payoffs. Our strategy to identify a causal effect has two key components. First, we implement an individual fixed effects strategy which allows us to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity. The remaining time variant heterogeneity is unlikely to be correlated with changes in the local crime environment given the well-documented political origins of the Mexican Drug War. We also show supporting evidence in this regard. The second component of our identification strategy is to use an intent-to-treat approach to shield our estimates from endogenous migration. Our findings indicate that exposure to greater local-area violent crime results in increased risk aversion. This effect is not driven by changes in financial circumstances, but may be explained instead by heightened fear of victimization. Nonetheless, we find that having greater economic resources mitigate the impact. This may be due to individuals with greater economic resources being able to avoid crime by affording better transportation or security at work.

The third chapter, co-authored with Duncan Thomas, evaluates whether attitudes toward deferred gratification change after having children. For this study we also exploit the MxFLS, which elicits attitudes toward deferred gratification (commonly known as time discounting) by asking individuals to choose between hypothetical payments at different points in time. We implement a difference-in-difference estimator to control for all time-invariant heterogeneity and show that our results are robust to the inclusion of time varying characteristics likely correlated with child birth. We find that becoming a mother increases time discounting especially in the first two years after childbirth and in particular for those women without a spouse at home. Having additional children does not have an effect and the effect for men seems to go in the opposite direction. These heterogeneous effects suggest that child rearing may affect time discounting due to generated stress or not fully anticipated spending needs.

Passive Acoustics: A Multifaceted Tool for Marine Mammal Conservation

Marine mammals exploit the efficiency of sound propagation in the marine environment for essential activities like communication and navigation. For this reason, passive acoustics has particularly high potential for marine mammal studies, especially those aimed at population management and conservation. Despite the rapid realization of this potential through a growing number of studies, much crucial information remains unknown or poorly understood. This research attempts to address two key knowledge gaps, using the well-studied bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) as a model species, and underwater acoustic recordings collected on four fixed autonomous sensors deployed at multiple locations in Sarasota Bay, Florida, between September 2012 and August 2013. Underwater noise can hinder dolphin communication. The ability of these animals to overcome this obstacle was examined using recorded noise and dolphin whistles. I found that bottlenose dolphins are able to compensate for increased noise in their environment using a wide range of strategies employed in a singular fashion or in various combinations, depending on the frequency content of the noise, noise source, and time of day. These strategies include modifying whistle frequency characteristics, increasing whistle duration, and increasing whistle redundancy. Recordings were also used to evaluate the performance of six recently developed passive acoustic abundance estimation methods, by comparing their results to the true abundance of animals, obtained via a census conducted within the same area and time period. The methods employed were broadly divided into two categories – those involving direct counts of animals, and those involving counts of cues (signature whistles). The animal-based methods were traditional capture-recapture, spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR), and an approach that blends the “snapshot” method and mark-recapture distance sampling, referred to here as (SMRDS). The cue-based methods were conventional distance sampling (CDS), an acoustic modeling approach involving the use of the passive sonar equation, and SECR. In the latter approach, detection probability was modelled as a function of sound transmission loss, rather than the Euclidean distance typically used. Of these methods, while SMRDS produced the most accurate estimate, SECR demonstrated the greatest potential for broad applicability to other species and locations, with minimal to no auxiliary data, such as distance from sound source to detector(s), which is often difficult to obtain. This was especially true when this method was compared to traditional capture-recapture results, which greatly underestimated abundance, despite attempts to account for major unmodelled heterogeneity. Furthermore, the incorporation of non-Euclidean distance significantly improved model accuracy. The acoustic modelling approach performed similarly to CDS, but both methods also strongly underestimated abundance. In particular, CDS proved to be inefficient. This approach requires at least 3 sensors for localization at a single point. It was also difficult to obtain accurate distances, and the sample size was greatly reduced by the failure to detect some whistles on all three recorders. As a result, this approach is not recommended for marine mammal abundance estimation when few recorders are available, or in high sound attenuation environments with relatively low sample sizes. It is hoped that these results lead to more informed management decisions, and therefore, more effective species conservation.

Therapeutically targeting mitochondrial redox signalling alleviates endothelial dysfunction in preeclampsia

Aberrant placentation generating placental oxidative stress is proposed to play a critical role in the pathophysiology of preeclampsia. Unfortunately, therapeutic trials of antioxidants have been uniformly disappointing. There is provisional evidence implicating mitochondrial dysfunction as a source of oxidative stress in preeclampsia. Here we provide evidence that mitochondrial reactive oxygen species mediates endothelial dysfunction and establish that directly targeting mitochondrial scavenging may provide a protective role. Human umbilical vein endothelial cells exposed to 3% plasma from women with pregnancies complicated by preeclampsia resulted in a significant decrease in mitochondrial function with a subsequent significant increase in mitochondrial superoxide generation compared to cells exposed to plasma from women with uncomplicated pregnancies. Real-time PCR analysis showed increased expression of inflammatory markers TNF-α, TLR-9 and ICAM-1 respectively in endothelial cells treated with preeclampsia plasma. MitoTempo is a mitochondrial-targeted antioxidant, pre-treatment of cells with MitoTempo protected against hydrogen peroxide-induced cell death. Furthermore MitoTempo significantly reduced mitochondrial superoxide production in cells exposed to preeclampsia plasma by normalising mitochondrial metabolism. MitoTempo significantly altered the inflammatory profile of plasma treated cells. These novel data support a functional role for mitochondrial redox signaling in modulating the pathogenesis of preeclampsia and identifies mitochondrial-targeted antioxidants as potential therapeutic candidates.

Elemental Analysis of Glass and Ink by Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) and Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS)

The necessity of elemental analysis techniques to solve forensic problems continues to expand as the samples collected from crime scenes grow in complexity. Laser ablation ICP-MS (LA-ICP-MS) has been shown to provide a high degree of discrimination between samples that originate from different sources. In the first part of this research, two laser ablation ICP-MS systems were compared, one using a nanosecond laser and another a femtosecond laser source for the forensic analysis of glass. The results showed that femtosecond LA-ICP-MS did not provide significant improvements in terms of accuracy, precision and discrimination, however femtosecond LA-ICP-MS did provide lower detection limits. In addition, it was determined that even for femtosecond LA-ICP-MS an internal standard should be utilized to obtain accurate analytical results for glass analyses. In the second part, a method using laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the forensic analysis of glass was shown to provide excellent discrimination for a glass set consisting of 41 automotive fragments. The discrimination power was compared to two of the leading elemental analysis techniques, µXRF and LA-ICP-MS, and the results were similar; all methods generated >99% discrimination and the pairs found indistinguishable were similar. An extensive data analysis approach for LIBS glass analyses was developed to minimize Type I and II errors en route to a recommendation of 10 ratios to be used for glass comparisons. Finally, a LA-ICP-MS method for the qualitative analysis and discrimination of gel ink sources was developed and tested for a set of ink samples. In the first discrimination study, qualitative analysis was used to obtain 95.6% discrimination for a blind study consisting of 45 black gel ink samples provided by the United States Secret Service. A 0.4% false exclusion (Type I) error rate and a 3.9% false inclusion (Type II) error rate was obtained for this discrimination study. In the second discrimination study, 99% discrimination power was achieved for a black gel ink pen set consisting of 24 self collected samples. The two pairs found to be indistinguishable came from the same source of origin (the same manufacturer and type of pen purchased in different locations). It was also found that gel ink from the same pen, regardless of the age, was indistinguishable as were gel ink pens (four pens) originating from the same pack.

(Table 1) Annual mean concentrations of atmospheric a- and g-Hexachlorocyclohexane at stations Alert, Canada and Zeppelin, Norway

Twelve year datasets of weekly atmospheric concentrations of alpha- and gamma-HCH were compared between the two Arctic monitoring stations of Alert, Nunavut, Canada, and Zeppelin Mountain, Svalbard, Norway. Time-series analysis was conducted with the use of dynamic harmonic regression (DHR), which provided a very good model fit, to examine both the seasonal behaviour in these isomers and the longer-term, underlying trends. Strong spatial differences were not apparent between the two sites, although subtle differences in seasonal behaviour and composition were identified. For example, the composition of gamma-HCH to total HCH (alpha + gamma) was greater at Zeppelin compared to Alert, probably reflecting this site's proximity to major use regions of lindane. Pronounced seasonality in air concentrations for gamma-HCH was marked by a 'spring maximum event' (SME), confirming earlier studies. For alpha-HCH, the SME was much weaker and only evident at Alert, whereas at Zeppelin, seasonal fluctuations for alpha-HCH were marked by elevated concentrations in summer and lower concentrations during winter, with this pattern most apparent for the years after 2000. We attribute this difference in spatial and temporal patterns to the Arctic oscillation. A similar climatic pattern was not evident at either site in the gamma-HCH data. Seasonally adjusted, long-term trends revealed declining concentrations at both sites for alpha- and gamma-HCH over the entire time-series. Recent legislation affecting lindane use appear to account for this decline in gamma-HCH, with little evidence of a delay or 'lag' between the banning of lindane in Europe (a main source region) or Canada, and a decline in air concentrations observed at both Arctic sites.

Application of microarrays (phylochips) for analysis of community diversity by species identification

Abstract Molecular probe-based methods (Fluorescent in-situ hybridisation or FISH, Next Generation Sequencing or NGS) have proved successful in improving both the efficiency and accuracy of the identification of microorganisms, especially those that lack distinct morphological features, such as picoplankton. However, FISH methods have the major drawback that they can only identify one or just a few species at a time because of the reduced number of available fluorochromes that can be added to the probe. Although the length of sequence that can be obtained is continually improving, NGS still requires a great deal of handling time, its analysis time is still months and with a PCR step it will always be sensitive to natural enzyme inhibitors. With the use of DNA microarrays, it is possible to identify large numbers of taxa on a single-glass slide, the so-called phylochip, which can be semi-quantitative. This review details the major steps in probe design, design and production of a phylochip and validation of the array. Finally, major microarray studies in the phytoplankton community are reviewed to demonstrate the scope of the method.

Application of microarrays (phylochips) for analysis of community diversity by species identification

Abstract Molecular probe-based methods (Fluorescent in-situ hybridisation or FISH, Next Generation Sequencing or NGS) have proved successful in improving both the efficiency and accuracy of the identification of microorganisms, especially those that lack distinct morphological features, such as picoplankton. However, FISH methods have the major drawback that they can only identify one or just a few species at a time because of the reduced number of available fluorochromes that can be added to the probe. Although the length of sequence that can be obtained is continually improving, NGS still requires a great deal of handling time, its analysis time is still months and with a PCR step it will always be sensitive to natural enzyme inhibitors. With the use of DNA microarrays, it is possible to identify large numbers of taxa on a single-glass slide, the so-called phylochip, which can be semi-quantitative. This review details the major steps in probe design, design and production of a phylochip and validation of the array. Finally, major microarray studies in the phytoplankton community are reviewed to demonstrate the scope of the method.

La «Relación de lugares y pueblos donde se saca la grana de la Ciudad de Cholula » (México) de 1600. Alcance y contenido

Asturias ha sido una región emigrante y América uno de los destinos más buscados por muchos de los asturianos emigrantes desde tiempos de la Edad Moderna. Fruto de esas migraciones, los archivos nobiliarios asturianos albergan algunos documentos que hacen referencia explícita al territorio americano o a las estancias de asturianos en América. En este trabajo se pretende dar a conocer un documento «americano» que hace referencia exclusiva a un territorio de América, la ciudad de Cholula (México) y que se conserva descontextualizado en un fondo nobiliario del occidente de Asturias. En él se hace una descripción cuantitativa y cualitativa del número de nopales y su cultivo en la Cholula del siglo XVI. Se realiza también un análisis de la naturaleza del documento como fuente histórica en relación con el fondo documental en el que se custodia y se contrasta con obras contemporáneas.