Economic and Social Panorama of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States 2014

This issue of the Economic and Social Panorama of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States is a contribution by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) to the third Summit of Heads of State and Government of the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States (CELAC), to be held in San José in January 2015. This document is based on excerpts from some of the annual flagships published by the Commission in 2014: Statistical Yearbook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2013 (LC/G.2582-P); Demographic Observatory 2013 (LC/G.2615-P); Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014 (LC/G.2619-P); Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean 2014 (LC/G.2632-P); Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean 2013 (LC/G.2615-P); Latin America and the Caribbean in the World Economy 2014 (LG/G.2625-P) “Social Panorama Social of Latin America 2014. Briefing Paper”; as well as the Gender Equality Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean. Annual Report 2013-2014 (LC/G.2626).

为平等的结构改变 综合发展

In today's complex and changing global context, the Latin American and Caribbean region must persevere, more than ever, in three directions: structural change to underpin progress towards more knowledge-intensive sectors, convergence to reduce internal and external gaps in income and productivity, and equality of rights. This is the integrated approach proposed by ECLAC as a route towards the development the region needs. This implies tackling three major challenges: to achieve high and sustained rates of growth so as to close structural gaps and generate quality jobs; to change consumption and production patterns in the context of a genuine technological revolution with environmental sustainability; and to guarantee equality on the basis of greater convergence in the production structure, with universal social protection and capacity-building. Such an endeavour requires the return of politics and of the State's role in promoting investment and growth, redistribution and regulation with a view to structural change for equality, through industrial, macroeconomic, social and labour policies. These are some of the key proposals of Structural Change for Equality: An Integrated Approach to Development, which ECLAC will present to its member States at the thirty-fourth session of the Commission (San Salvador, August 2012). The proposals in that document, which is summarized here, deepen and broaden the ideas set forth in Time for equality: closing gaps, opening trails, aiming towards sustainable development with equality and taking into account the diverse national conditions across the region.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Jamaica

Climate change is a continuous process that began centuries ago. Today the pace of change has increased with greater rapidity because of global warming induced by anthropogenically generated greenhouse gases (GHG). Failure to effectively deal with the adverse outcomes can easily disrupt plans for sustainable economic development. Because of the failure of export agriculture over the last several decades, to provide the economic stimuli needed to promote economic growth and development, Jamaica, like many other island states in the Caribbean subregion, has come to rely on tourism as an instrument of transformation of the macro-economy. It is believed this shift in economic imperative would eventually provide the economic impetus needed to generate much needed growth and development. This assessment has shown that tourism is not only a leading earner of foreign exchange in Jamaica and a major creator of both direct and indirect jobs but, also, one of the principal contributors to the country‟s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The rapid expansion of the industry which occurred over the last several decades coupled with disregard for sound environmental practices has led to the destruction of coral reefs and the silting of wetlands. Because most of the industry is located along the coastal region it is extremely vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Failure to address the predictable environmental challenges of climate change, with some degree of immediacy, will not only undermine, but quickly and seriously impair the capacity of industry to stimulate and contribute to the process of economic development. To this end, it important that further development of industry be characterised by sound economic and social planning and proper environmental practices.

The tourism sector and the global economic crisis: development implicatins for the Caribbean

Over the past two years the global economy has experienced substantial economic turmoil, resulting in severe economic contraction. While there has been a recent return to growth, this situation has impacted all economic sectors worldwide. In the highly tourism-dependent region of the Caribbean, the impact of the global economic crisis has been most notable on the tourism sector, which, from the early 1990s, became the key driver of economic growth for the region. The eventual emergence of this sector reflects an economic development history which was previously underpinned by the export of agricultural commodities, and subsequently by the adoption of the import substitution industrialization model as promulgated by Arthur Lewis. This was further stimulated by spectacular economic contraction in Caribbean economies during the 1980s as a result of changes in the global terms of trade for commodities, generally low levels of competitiveness for manufactured goods, as well as weak institutional and governance frameworks. Ultimately, many economies began to reflect fiscal and balance of payments constraints. By the end of the 1990s, too, evidence of declining competitiveness even in the tourism sector began to become apparent particularly when evaluated under the framework of the Butler Tourism Area Life- Cycle (TALC) model. The recent economic crisis, therefore, provides an opportunity to reflect on the overall approach to economic development in the Caribbean, and to assess the implications of the region’s response to the crisis. This analysis makes the case for the future development of the sector to be based on two broad strategies. The first is to deepen the integration of the tourism sector into the broader economy through the diversification of the regional tourism product, as well as the enhancement of linkages with other sectors, while the second is to expand the tourism sector into a total service economy through the introduction of new services. Considering linkages, the development of clusters and value chains to support the tourism sector is identified with respect to agriculture and food, handicraft, and furnishings. Among the new services identified are education, wellness, yachting and boating, financial services, and information and communications technologies (ICT). This overall strategy is deemed to be better suited to the macroeconomic realities of the Caribbean, where high labour costs and other structural rigidities require a high-valued specialty tourism product in order to sustain the sector’s global competitiveness.

Economic survey of the Caribbean 2008-2009

This survey provides an overview of the economic performance of countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) for the year 2008 and their outlook for 2009. The report comprises three chapters. The first provides a regional comparative analysis of the main macroeconomic variables, namely GDP growth, inflation, fiscal and external accounts, as well as fiscal, monetary and other policies, particularly those specifically devised to cope with the ongoing global economic crisis. The second chapter deals with two topics relevant for economic development in the region: economic growth and small and medium enterprises development from an analytical and empirical perspective. The last chapter presents country briefs of the seven most developed countries (MDCs) in the Caribbean – Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago – together with a subregional assessment of the eight member countries of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU).

Stylized features of the investment-growth connection in Latin America, 1980-2012

Estimates of investment and its components in Latin America over the past 30 years are used to review stylized facts relating to investment and explore factors that explain its connection with economic growth. In particular, the low level of investment, the reduction in public spending in the 1980s and its partial recovery along with private investment between 2003 and 2010 are explored. It is found that the increase in national income —on the back of rising terms of trade— made it possible to increase national saving and its contribution to financing investment between 2004 and 2008. The analysis of causality between the investment ratio and growth in gross domestic product (gdp) suggest that —for a considerable number of Latin American countries— changes in the growth rate have preceded changes in the investment ration in the period under study.

Macroeconomic trade-offs and external vulnerabilities of human development in Nicaragua

Nicaragua is making progress towards the Millennium Development Goals, but is set to miss a number of targets in 2015. This paper’s general equilibrium analysis shows that it is unfeasible for the government to step up spending in order to meet these targets by the 2015 deadline. Any boost to public spending and financing would have to be front-loaded, which would entail pernicious macroeconomic trade-offs. A more realistic scenario would be to postpone meeting the goals until 2020. In that case, the allocation of public spending would spur economic growth without causing macroeconomic hardships, although the country would nevertheless remain highly vulnerable to external shocks.

Abertura de capital como estratégia de gestão jurídica e financeira de empresas do setor sucroalcooleiro

Pós-graduação em Direito - FCHS

O emprego na transição para uma economia verde: cenários para o Brasil com base no consumo de energia pela indústria

Pós-graduação em Economia - FCLAR

Eficiência econômica da produção de cana-de-açúcar de produtores independentes do Estado do Paraná

Pós-graduação em Agronomia (Energia na Agricultura) - FCA

Universidades públicas: das contribuições do conhecimento na Pós-Graduação ao desenvolvimento regional

Resumo: Este estudo apresenta uma análise a respeito da contribuição do conhecimento adquirido na pós-graduação para o Desenvolvimento Regional, fundamentando-se em duas correntes: uma que defende a ideia tradicional do investimento em ciência básica como elemento essencial para o desenvolvimento econômico de qualquer região e a outra que defende a interdisciplinaridade como resposta a fragmentação causada por uma epistemologia de cunho positivista que vem ocupando cada vez mais espaço nas universidades brasileiras com a ampliação crescente de programas de pós-graduação stricto sensu, perante a necessidade que a sociedade do conhecimento, informacional e globalizada, impõe à ciência moderna como solução para essa nova forma organizacional. A pesquisa baseou-se na coleta de dados secundários e estes foram analisados através dos coeficientes de correlação, de especialização e de reestruturação. Os resultados dos mesmos mostraram que apesar das regiões estarem em fase de desenvolvimento, a desigualdade regional ainda limita o processo de inovação do país, sendo este um dos fatores que impede o crescimento econômico equitativo das regiões.

A relação entre crescimento econômico e desenvolvimento sustentável: a Região do Araguaia no contexto regional paraense

A relação entre crescimento econômico e desenvolvimento sustentável é a problemática deste estudo que propõe analisar esta por meio do uso do Índice de Desenvolvimento Sustentável Local. Nesse sentido, a categoria de análise usada foi à região que é definida como um sistema formado por e a partir da conjunção de elementos internos e externos. O objeto de análise selecionado foi a região do Araguaia paraense que se localiza no Estado do Pará – Brasil, essa escolha ocorreu porque, ao longo dos últimos 40 anos, essa região tem assumido expressão econômica nesse estado e, ao mesmo tempo, tem sido foco de questionamentos quanto ao modelo de desenvolvimento econômico empregado no passado e os seus resultados no presente. O objetivo central deste estudo é analisar, por meio dos elementos internos e externos de uma região considerada como fronteira de recursos, se o cenário de crescimento econômico contribuiu para o desenvolvimento sustentável. A seleção de um estudo de caso foi à estratégia de investigação e os instrumentos de levantamento de dados foram: a aplicação de questionários, a análise da evolução de dados secundários e a construção de um Índice de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (IDLS) que foi usado para dimensionar de forma integrada o desempenho social, ambiental, econômico e institucional da região pesquisada em relação ao contexto regional paraense. O principal resultado, deste estudo, foi à constatação de que crescimento econômico das regiões paraenses até a atualidade não mediou processos favoráveis ao desenvolvimento na perspectiva da sustentabilidade. Observou-se que a região do Araguaia, encontra-se em estado de alerta no IDLS, seguindo a mesma tendência de outros espaços regionais que cresceram economicamente no Estado do Pará. Para cada região do Estado do Pará, uma dimensão diferente comprometeu a sustentabilidade regional, no caso da Região do Araguaia a dimensão ambiental foi a que mais comprometeu o seu IDSL. Tal resultado comprova vários estudos que afirmaram que os impactos ambientais comprometem o desenvolvimento sustentável dessa região. Apesar disso, essa região obteve o terceiro melhor desempenho na dimensão social da sustentabilidade, dado mais importante para o desenvolvimento sustentável que este estudo se propôs medir. Por conseguinte, duas conclusões principais podem ser apontadas. A primeira é que atualmente houve uma melhora no padrão social das regiões paraense como um todo, em alguns casos as áreas centrais dos grandes investimentos superaram o desempenho social de outras regiões que não foram focos dos investimentos promovidos nas décadas anteriores. Apesar de alguns estudos apontarem que os investimentos governamentais não se revestiram em benefícios sociais. A segunda é que os elementos externos às regiões contribuíram para a mudança do quadro social descrito, mas não para alteração do quadro ambiental regional, pois criou institucionalidades que direcionassem as forças internas na produção dos resultados do quadro econômico, social, institucional e ambiental. Portanto, tanto a elevação do padrão social quanto a piora do quadro ambiental da região do Araguaia paraense são o resultado de um conjunto de políticas nacionais que, provavelmente, se somaram aos cenários de ação e decisão dos atores locais.

Políticas públicas, corredores de exportação, modernização portuária, industrialização e impactos territoriais e ambientais no município de Barcarena, Pará

Este artigo discute as dinâmicas de aglomeração industrial, incremento e modernização portuária no município de Barcarena, Estado do Pará, Brasil. Especificamente, discute as causas estruturais que explicam estas dinâmicas, e as mudanças qualitativas e quantitativas locais, acerca dos aspectos espaciais, sociais, demográficos e ambien-tais. Diferentes momentos de produção e exportação de produtos minerais (caulim, bauxita e produtos originados dela – alumina, alumínio) na Amazônia Oriental Brasileira levam a instalação, consolidação e expansão de um distrito industrial e portuário em Barcarena. Na atual década, Barcarena integra um corredor de exportação diretamente ligado a eixos ou sistemas produtivos nacionais e globais. Contudo, as dinâmicas que sustentam este crescimento econômico não apontam para perspectivas de que a produção conduza ao enraizamento social do desenvolvimento, ao estabelecimento de vantagens competitivas que tenham uma base sistêmica; tampouco contribui para a reversão dos impactos sociais e ambientais.

A produção e o consumo do espaço da habitação no setor imobiliário em Limeira-SP

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)