The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level

Brian Huntley, Rhys E. Green, Yvonne C. Collingham, Jane K. Hill, Stephen G. Willis , Patrick J. Bartlein, Wolfgang Cramer, Ward J. M. Hagemeijer and Christopher J. Thomas (2004). The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level. Ecology Letters, 7(5), 417-426. Sponsorship: NERC (awards: GR9/3016, GR9/04270, GR3/12542, NER/F/S/2000/00166) / RSPB RAE2008

Assessing the impulse control of violent offenders using computer-based cognitive performance tasks

The topic of this thesis is impulsivity. The meaning and measurement of impulse control is explored, with a particular focus on forensic settings. Impulsivity is central to many areas of psychology; it is one of the most common diagnostic criteria of mental disorders and is fundamental to the understanding of forensic personalities. Despite this widespread importance there is little agreement as to the definition or structure of impulsivity, and its measurement is fraught with difficulty owing to a reliance on self-report methods. This research aims to address this problem by investigating the viability of using simple computerised cognitive performance tasks as complementary components of a multi-method assessment strategy for impulse control. Ultimately, the usefulness of this measurement strategy for a forensic sample is assessed. Impulsivity is found to be a multifaceted construct comprised of a constellation of distinct sub-dimensions. Computerised cognitive performance tasks are valid and reliable measures that can assess impulsivity at a neuronal level. Self-report and performance task methods assess distinct components of impulse control and, for the optimal assessment of impulse control, a multi-method battery of self-report and performance task measures is advocated. Such a battery is shown to have demonstrated utility in a forensic sample, and recommendations for forensic assessment in the Irish context are discussed.

Liquidity risk and the performance of UK mutual funds

We examine the role of liquidity risk, both as a stock characteristic as well as systematic liquidity risk, in UK mutual fund performance for the first time. Using four alternative measures of stock liquidity we extract principal components across stocks in order to construct systematic or market liquidity factors. We find that on average UK mutual funds are tilted towards liquid stocks (except for small stock funds as might be expected) but that, counter-intuitively, liquidity as a stock characteristic is positively priced in the cross-section of fund performance. We find that systematic liquidity risk is positively priced in the cross-section of fund performance. Overall, our results reveal a strong role for stock liquidity level and systematic liquidity risk in fund performance evaluation models.

The effectiveness of using patient-reported outcome measures as quality improvement tools

Aim: To investigate the value of using PROMs as quality improvement tools. Methods: Two systematic reviews were undertaken. The first reviewed the quantitative literature on the impact of PROMs feedback and the second reviewed the qualitative literature on the use of PROMs in practice. These reviews informed the focus of the primary research. A cluster randomised controlled trial (PROFILE) examined the impact of providing peer benchmarked PROMs feedback to consultant orthopaedic surgeons on improving outcomes for hip replacement surgery. Qualitative interviews with surgeons in the intervention arm of the trial examined the view of and reactions to the feedback. Results: The quantitative review of 17 studies found weak evidence to suggest that providing PROMs feedback to professionals improves patient outcomes. The qualitative review of 16 studies identified the barriers and facilitators to the use of PROMs based on four themes: practical considerations, attitudes towards the data, methodological concerns and the impact of feedback on care. The PROFILE trial included 11 surgeons and 215 patients in the intervention arm, and 10 surgeons and 217 patients in the control arm. The trial found no significant difference in the Oxford Hip Score between the arms (-0.7, 95% CI -1.9-0.5, p=0.2). Interviews with surgeons revealed mixed opinions about the value of the PROMs feedback and the information did not promote explicit changes to their practice. Conclusion: It is important to use PROMs which have been validated for the specific purpose of performance measurement, consult with professionals when developing a PROMs feedback intervention, communicate with professionals about the objectives of the data collection, educate professionals on the properties and interpretation of the data, and support professionals in using the information to improve care. It is also imperative that the burden of data collection and dissemination of the information is minimised.

Performance metrics of an optical spectral imaging system for intra-operative assessment of breast tumor margins.

As many as 20-70% of patients undergoing breast conserving surgery require repeat surgeries due to a close or positive surgical margin diagnosed post-operatively [1]. Currently there are no widely accepted tools for intra-operative margin assessment which is a significant unmet clinical need. Our group has developed a first-generation optical visible spectral imaging platform to image the molecular composition of breast tumor margins and has tested it clinically in 48 patients in a previously published study [2]. The goal of this paper is to report on the performance metrics of the system and compare it to clinical criteria for intra-operative tumor margin assessment. The system was found to have an average signal to noise ratio (SNR) >100 and <15% error in the extraction of optical properties indicating that there is sufficient SNR to leverage the differences in optical properties between negative and close/positive margins. The probe had a sensing depth of 0.5-2.2 mm over the wavelength range of 450-600 nm which is consistent with the pathologic criterion for clear margins of 0-2 mm. There was <1% cross-talk between adjacent channels of the multi-channel probe which shows that multiple sites can be measured simultaneously with negligible cross-talk between adjacent sites. Lastly, the system and measurement procedure were found to be reproducible when evaluated with repeated measures, with a low coefficient of variation (<0.11). The only aspect of the system not optimized for intra-operative use was the imaging time. The manuscript includes a discussion of how the speed of the system can be improved to work within the time constraints of an intra-operative setting.

The impact of anxiety-inducing distraction on cognitive performance: a combined brain imaging and personality investigation.

BACKGROUND: Previous investigations revealed that the impact of task-irrelevant emotional distraction on ongoing goal-oriented cognitive processing is linked to opposite patterns of activation in emotional and perceptual vs. cognitive control/executive brain regions. However, little is known about the role of individual variations in these responses. The present study investigated the effect of trait anxiety on the neural responses mediating the impact of transient anxiety-inducing task-irrelevant distraction on cognitive performance, and on the neural correlates of coping with such distraction. We investigated whether activity in the brain regions sensitive to emotional distraction would show dissociable patterns of co-variation with measures indexing individual variations in trait anxiety and cognitive performance. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Event-related fMRI data, recorded while healthy female participants performed a delayed-response working memory (WM) task with distraction, were investigated in conjunction with behavioural measures that assessed individual variations in both trait anxiety and WM performance. Consistent with increased sensitivity to emotional cues in high anxiety, specific perceptual areas (fusiform gyrus--FG) exhibited increased activity that was positively correlated with trait anxiety and negatively correlated with WM performance, whereas specific executive regions (right lateral prefrontal cortex--PFC) exhibited decreased activity that was negatively correlated with trait anxiety. The study also identified a role of the medial and left lateral PFC in coping with distraction, as opposed to reflecting a detrimental impact of emotional distraction. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide initial evidence concerning the neural mechanisms sensitive to individual variations in trait anxiety and WM performance, which dissociate the detrimental impact of emotion distraction and the engagement of mechanisms to cope with distracting emotions. Our study sheds light on the neural correlates of emotion-cognition interactions in normal behaviour, which has implications for understanding factors that may influence susceptibility to affective disorders, in general, and to anxiety disorders, in particular.

Bioenergetic and ecological consequences of diet variability in Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus

Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus is a commercially and ecologically important bottom-associated fish that occurs in marine and estuarine systems from Cape Cod, MA to Mexico. I documented the temporal and spatial variability in the diet of Atlantic croaker in Chesapeake Bay and found that in the summer fish, particularly bay anchovies Anchoa mitchilli, make up at least 20% of the diet of croaker by weight. The use of a pelagic food source seems unusual for a bottom-associated fish such as croaker, but appears to be a crepuscular feeding habit that has not been previously detected. Thus, I investigated the bioenergetic consequences of secondary piscivory to the distribution of croaker, to the condition of individuals within the population and to the ecosystem. Generalized additive models revealed that the biomass of anchovy explained some of the variability in croaker occurrence and abundance in Chesapeake Bay. However, physical factors, specifically temperature, salinity, and seasonal dynamics were stronger determinants of croaker distribution than potential prey availability. To better understand the bioenergetic consequences of diet variability at the individual level, I tested the hypothesis that croaker feeding on anchovies would be in better condition than those feeding on polychaetes using a variety of condition measures that operate on multiple time scales, including RNA:DNA, Fulton's condition factor (K), relative weight (Wr), energy density, hepatosomatic index (HSI), and gonadosomatic index (GSI). Of these condition measures, several morphometric measures were significantly positively correlated with each other and with the percentage (by weight) of anchovy in croaker diets, suggesting that the type of prey eaten is important in improving the overall condition of individual croaker. To estimate the bioenergetic consequences of diet variability on growth and consumption in croaker, I developed and validated a bioenergetic model for Atlantic croaker in the laboratory. The application of this model suggested that croaker could be an important competitor with weakfish and striped bass for food resources during the spring and summer when population abundances of these three fishes are high in Chesapeake Bay. Even though anchovies made up a relatively small portion of croaker diet and only at certain times of the year, croaker consumed more anchovy at the population level than striped bass in all simulated years and nearly as much anchovy as weakfish. This indicates that weak trophic interactions between species are important in understanding ecosystem processes and should be considered in ecosystem-based management.

Relative growth of the limbs and trunk in sifakas: heterochronic, ecological, and functional considerations.

Limb, trunk, and body weight measurements were obtained for growth series of Milne-Edwards's diademed sifaka, Propithecus diadema edwardsi, and the golden-crowned sifaka, Propithecus tattersalli. Similar measures were obtained also for primarily adults of two subspecies of the western sifaka: Propithecus verreauxi coquereli, Coquerel's sifaka, and Propithecus verreauxi verreauxi, Verreaux's sifaka. Ontogenetic series for the larger-bodied P. d. edwardsi and the smaller-bodied P. tattersalli were compared to evaluate whether species-level differences in body proportions result from the differential extension of common patterns of relative growth. In bivariate plots, both subspecies of P. verreauxi were included to examine whether these taxa also lie along a growth trajectory common to all sifakas. Analyses of the data indicate that postcranial proportions for sifakas are ontogenetically scaled, much as demonstrated previously with cranial dimensions for all three species (Ravosa, 1992). As such, P. d. edwardsi apparently develops larger overall size primarily by growing at a faster rate, but not for a longer duration of time, than P. tattersalli and P. verreauxi; this is similar to results based on cranial data. A consideration of Malagasy lemur ecology suggests that regional differences in forage quality and resource availability have strongly influenced the evolutionary development of body-size variation in sifakas. On one hand, the rainforest environment of P. d. edwardsi imposes greater selective pressures for larger body size than the dry-forest environment of P. tattersalli and P. v. coquereli, or the semi-arid climate of P. v. verreauxi. On the other hand, as progressively smaller-bodied adult sifakas are located in the east, west, and northwest, this apparently supports suggestions that adult body size is set by dry-season constraints on food quality and distribution (i.e., smaller taxa are located in more seasonal habitats such as the west and northeast). Moreover, the fact that body-size differentiation occurs primarily via differences in growth rate is also due apparently to differences in resource seasonality (and juvenile mortality risk in turn) between the eastern rainforest and the more temperate northeast and west. Most scaling coefficients for both arm and leg growth range from slight negative allometry to slight positive allometry. Given the low intermembral index for sifakas, which is also an adaptation for propulsive hindlimb-dominated jumping, this suggests that differences in adult limb proportions are largely set prenatally rather than being achieved via higher rates of postnatal hindlimb growth.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

How does cognition evolve? Phylogenetic comparative psychology.

Now more than ever animal studies have the potential to test hypotheses regarding how cognition evolves. Comparative psychologists have developed new techniques to probe the cognitive mechanisms underlying animal behavior, and they have become increasingly skillful at adapting methodologies to test multiple species. Meanwhile, evolutionary biologists have generated quantitative approaches to investigate the phylogenetic distribution and function of phenotypic traits, including cognition. In particular, phylogenetic methods can quantitatively (1) test whether specific cognitive abilities are correlated with life history (e.g., lifespan), morphology (e.g., brain size), or socio-ecological variables (e.g., social system), (2) measure how strongly phylogenetic relatedness predicts the distribution of cognitive skills across species, and (3) estimate the ancestral state of a given cognitive trait using measures of cognitive performance from extant species. Phylogenetic methods can also be used to guide the selection of species comparisons that offer the strongest tests of a priori predictions of cognitive evolutionary hypotheses (i.e., phylogenetic targeting). Here, we explain how an integration of comparative psychology and evolutionary biology will answer a host of questions regarding the phylogenetic distribution and history of cognitive traits, as well as the evolutionary processes that drove their evolution.

Imagery and retrieval of auditory and visual information: neural correlates of successful and unsuccessful performance.

Remembering past events - or episodic retrieval - consists of several components. There is evidence that mental imagery plays an important role in retrieval and that the brain regions supporting imagery overlap with those supporting retrieval. An open issue is to what extent these regions support successful vs. unsuccessful imagery and retrieval processes. Previous studies that examined regional overlap between imagery and retrieval used uncontrolled memory conditions, such as autobiographical memory tasks, that cannot distinguish between successful and unsuccessful retrieval. A second issue is that fMRI studies that compared imagery and retrieval have used modality-aspecific cues that are likely to activate auditory and visual processing regions simultaneously. Thus, it is not clear to what extent identified brain regions support modality-specific or modality-independent imagery and retrieval processes. In the current fMRI study, we addressed this issue by comparing imagery to retrieval under controlled memory conditions in both auditory and visual modalities. We also obtained subjective measures of imagery quality allowing us to dissociate regions contributing to successful vs. unsuccessful imagery. Results indicated that auditory and visual regions contribute both to imagery and retrieval in a modality-specific fashion. In addition, we identified four sets of brain regions with distinct patterns of activity that contributed to imagery and retrieval in a modality-independent fashion. The first set of regions, including hippocampus, posterior cingulate cortex, medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyrus, showed a pattern common to imagery/retrieval and consistent with successful performance regardless of task. The second set of regions, including dorsal precuneus, anterior cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, also showed a pattern common to imagery and retrieval, but consistent with unsuccessful performance during both tasks. Third, left ventrolateral prefrontal cortex showed an interaction between task and performance and was associated with successful imagery but unsuccessful retrieval. Finally, the fourth set of regions, including ventral precuneus, midcingulate cortex and supramarginal gyrus, showed the opposite interaction, supporting unsuccessful imagery, but successful retrieval performance. Results are discussed in relation to reconstructive, attentional, semantic memory, and working memory processes. This is the first study to separate the neural correlates of successful and unsuccessful performance for both imagery and retrieval and for both auditory and visual modalities.

Temporal Stability of Molecular Diversity Measures in Natural Populations of Drosophila pseudoobscura and Drosophila persimilis

Many molecular ecological and evolutionary studies sample wild populations at a single point in time, failing to consider that data they collect represents genetic variation from a potentially unrepresentative snapshot in time. Variation across time in genetic parameters may occur quickly in species that produce multiple generations of offspring per year. However, many studies of rapid contemporary microevolution examine phenotypic trait divergence as opposed to molecular evolutionary divergence. Here, we compare genetic diversity in wild caught populations of Drosophila persimilis and D. pseudoobscura collected 16 years apart at the same time of year and same site at four X-linked and two mitochondrial loci to assess genetic stability. We found no major changes in nucleotide diversity in either species, but we observed a drastic shift in Tajima’s D between D. pseudoobscura timepoints at one locus associated with the increased abundance of a set of related haplotypes. Our data also suggests that D. persimilis may have recently accelerated its demographic expansion. While the changes we observed were modest, this study reinforces the importance of considering potential temporal variation in genetic parameters within single populations over short evolutionary timescales.

A systematic review of the effect of dietary exposure that could be achieved through normal dietary intake on learning and performance of school-aged children of relevance to UK schools

The aim of the present review was to perform a systematic in-depth review of the best evidence from controlled trial studies that have investigated the effects of nutrition, diet and dietary change on learning, education and performance in school-aged children (4-18 years) from the UK and other developed countries. The twenty-nine studies identified for the review examined the effects of breakfast consumption, sugar intake, fish oil and vitamin supplementation and 'good diets'. In summary, the studies included in the present review suggest there is insufficient evidence to identify any effect of nutrition, diet and dietary change on learning, education or performance of school-aged children from the developed world. However, there is emerging evidence for the effects of certain fatty acids which appear to be a function of dose and time. Further research is required in settings of relevance to the UK and must be of high quality, representative of all populations, undertaken for longer durations and use universal validated measures of educational attainment. However, challenges in terms of interpreting the results of such studies within the context of factors such as family and community context, poverty, disease and the rate of individual maturation and neurodevelopment will remain. Whilst the importance of diet in educational attainment remains under investigation, the evidence for promotion of lower-fat, -salt and -sugar diets, high in fruits, vegetables and complex carbohydrates, as well as promotion of physical activity remains unequivocal in terms of health outcomes for all schoolchildren.

Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

Identifying predictable foraging habitats for a wide-ranging marine predator using ensemble ecological niche models

Aim: Ecological niche modelling can provide valuable insight into species' environmental preferences and aid the identification of key habitats for populations of conservation concern. Here, we integrate biologging, satellite remote-sensing and ensemble ecological niche models (EENMs) to identify predictable foraging habitats for a globally important population of the grey-headed albatross (GHA) Thalassarche chrysostoma. Location: Bird Island, South Georgia; Southern Atlantic Ocean. Methods: GPS and geolocation-immersion loggers were used to track at-sea movements and activity patterns of GHA over two breeding seasons (n = 55; brood-guard). Immersion frequency (landings per 10-min interval) was used to define foraging events. EENM combining Generalized Additive Models (GAM), MaxEnt, Random Forest (RF) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) identified the biophysical conditions characterizing the locations of foraging events, using time-matched oceanographic predictors (Sea Surface Temperature, SST; chlorophyll a, chl-a; thermal front frequency, TFreq; depth). Model performance was assessed through iterative cross-validation and extrapolative performance through cross-validation among years. Results: Predictable foraging habitats identified by EENM spanned neritic (<500 m), shelf break and oceanic waters, coinciding with a set of persistent biophysical conditions characterized by particular thermal ranges (3–8 °C, 12–13 °C), elevated primary productivity (chl-a > 0.5 mg m−3) and frequent manifestation of mesoscale thermal fronts. Our results confirm previous indications that GHA exploit enhanced foraging opportunities associated with frontal systems and objectively identify the APFZ as a region of high foraging habitat suitability. Moreover, at the spatial and temporal scales investigated here, the performance of multi-model ensembles was superior to that of single-algorithm models, and cross-validation among years indicated reasonable extrapolative performance. Main conclusions: EENM techniques are useful for integrating the predictions of several single-algorithm models, reducing potential bias and increasing confidence in predictions. Our analysis highlights the value of EENM for use with movement data in identifying at-sea habitats of wide-ranging marine predators, with clear implications for conservation and management.

Differential lifetime success and performance of native and non-native Atlantic salmon examined under communal natural conditions.

The lifetime success and performance characteristics of communally reared offspring of wild native Burrishoole (native), ranched native (ranched) and non-native (non-native) Atlantic salmon Salmo salar from the adjacent Owenmore River were compared. Non-native year parr showed a substantial downstream migration, which was not shown by native and ranched parr. This appears to have been an active migration rather than competitive displacement and may reflect an adaptation to environmental or physiographic conditions within the Owenmore River catchment where the main nursery habitat is downstream of the spawning area. There were no differences between native and ranched in smolt output or adult return. Both of these measures, however, were significantly lower for the non-native group. A greater proportion of the non-native Atlantic salmon was taken in the coastal drift nets compared to the return to the Burrishoole system, probably as a result of the greater size of the non-native fish. The overall lifetime success of the non-native group, from fertilized egg to returning adult, was some 35% of native and ranched. The ranched group showed a significantly greater male parr maturity, a greater proportion of 1+ year smolts, and differences in sex ratio and timing of freshwater entry of returning adults compared to native, which may have fitness implications under specific conditions.