Optimal Test for Parameter Instability When the Unstable Process and the Error Distribution are Unknown

This paper proposes asymptotically optimal tests for unstable parameter process under the feasible circumstance that the researcher has little information about the unstable parameter process and the error distribution, and suggests conditions under which the knowledge of those processes does not provide asymptotic power gains. I first derive a test under known error distribution, which is asymptotically equivalent to LR tests for correctly identified unstable parameter processes under suitable conditions. The conditions are weak enough to cover a wide range of unstable processes such as various types of structural breaks and time varying parameter processes. The test is then extended to semiparametric models in which the underlying distribution in unknown but treated as unknown infinite dimensional nuisance parameter. The semiparametric test is adaptive in the sense that its asymptotic power function is equivalent to the power envelope under known error distribution.

Second, do less harm: The state of states' medical error reporting programs

Statement of the problem and public health significance. Hospitals were designed to be a safe haven and respite from disease and illness. However, a large body of evidence points to preventable errors in hospitals as the eighth leading cause of death among Americans. Twelve percent of Americans, or over 33.8 million people, are hospitalized each year. This population represents a significant portion of at risk citizens exposed to hospital medical errors. Since the number of annual deaths due to hospital medical errors is estimated to exceed 44,000, the magnitude of this tragedy makes it a significant public health problem. ^ Specific aims. The specific aims of this study were threefold. First, this study aimed to analyze the state of the states' mandatory hospital medical error reporting six years after the release of the influential IOM report, "To Err is Human." The second aim was to identify barriers to reporting of medical errors by hospital personnel. The third aim was to identify hospital safety measures implemented to reduce medical errors and enhance patient safety. ^ Methods. A descriptive, longitudinal, retrospective design was used to address the first stated objective. The study data came from the twenty-one states with mandatory hospital reporting programs which report aggregate hospital error data that is accessible to the public by way of states' websites. The data analysis included calculations of expected number of medical errors for each state according to IOM rates. Where possible, a comparison was made between state reported data and the calculated IOM expected number of errors. A literature review was performed to achieve the second study aim, identifying barriers to reporting medical errors. The final aim was accomplished by telephone interviews of principal patient safety/quality officers from five Texas hospitals with more than 700 beds. ^ Results. The state medical error data suggests vast underreporting of hospital medical errors to the states. The telephone interviews suggest that hospitals are working at reducing medical errors and creating safer environments for patients. The literature review suggests the underreporting of medical errors at the state level stems from underreporting of errors at the delivery level. ^

Nursing-related medication errors: A review of factors that facilitate and hinder error reporting, and recommendations for improvement

Medication errors, one of the most frequent types of medical errors, are a common cause of patient harm in hospital systems today. Nurses at the bedside are in a position to encounter many of these errors since they are there at the start of the process (ordering/prescribing) and the end of the process (administration). One of the recommendations from the IOM (Institute of Medicine) report, "To Err is Human," was for organizations to identify and learn from medical errors through event reporting systems. While many organizations have reporting systems in place, research studies report a significant amount of underreporting by nurses. A systematic review of the literature was performed to identify contributing factors related to the reporting and not reporting of medication errors by nurses at the bedside.^ Articles included in the literature review were primary or secondary studies, dated January 1, 2000 – July 2009, related to nursing medication error reporting. All 634 articles were reviewed with an algorithm developed to standardize the review process and help filter out those that did not meet the study criteria. In addition, 142 article bibliographies were reviewed to find additional studies that were not found in the original literature search.^ After reviewing the 634 articles and the additional 108 articles discovered in the bibliography review, 41 articles met the study criteria and were used in the systematic literature review results.^ Fear of punitive reactions to medication errors was a frequent barrier to error reporting. Nurses fear reactions from their leadership, peers, patients and their families, nursing boards, and the media. Anonymous reporting systems and departments/organizations with a strong safety culture in place helped to encourage the reporting of medication errors by nursing staff.^ Many of the studies included in this literature review do not allow results that can be generalized. The majority of them took place in single institutions/organizations with limited sample sizes. Stronger studies with larger sample sizes need to be performed, utilizing data collection methods that have been validated, to determine stronger correlations between safety cultures and nurse error reporting.^

Evaluation of risk factors for long term changes in refractive error among adult patients at a Dallas Texas private setting A retrospective chart-review study

Background. Over 39.9% of the adult population forty or older in the United States has refractive error, little is known about the etiology of this condition and associated risk factors and their entailed mechanism due to the paucity of data regarding the changes of refractive error for the adult population over time.^ Aim. To evaluate risk factors over a long term, 5-year period, in refractive error changes among persons 43 or older by testing the hypothesis that age, gender, systemic diseases, nuclear sclerosis and baseline refractive errors are all significantly associated with refractive errors changes in patients at a Dallas, Texas private optometric office.^ Methods. A retrospective chart review of subjective refraction, eye health, and self-report health history was done on patients at a private optometric office who were 43 or older in 2000 who had eye examinations both in 2000 and 2005. Aphakic and pseudophakic eyes were excluded as well as eyes with best corrected Snellen visual acuity of 20/40 and worse. After exclusions, refraction was obtained on 114 right eyes and 114 left eyes. Spherical equivalent (sum of sphere + ½ cylinder) was used as the measure of refractive error.^ Results. Similar changes in refractive error were observed for the two eyes. The 5-year change in spherical power was in a hyperopic direction for younger age groups and in a myopic direction for older subjects, P<0.0001. The gender-adjusted mean change in refractive error in right eyes of persons aged 43 to 54, 55 to 64, 65 to 74, and 75 or older at baseline was +0.43D, +0.46 D, -0.09 D, and -0.23D, respectively. Refractive change was strongly related to baseline nuclear cataract severity; grades 4 to 5 were associated with a myopic shift (-0.38 D, P< 0.0001). The mean age-adjusted change in refraction was +0.27 D for hyperopic eyes, +0.56 D for emmetropic eyes, and +0.26 D for myopic eyes.^ Conclusions. This report has documented refractive error changes in an older population and confirmed reported trends of a hyperopic shift before age 65 and a myopic shift thereafter associated with the development of nuclear cataract.^

Nurse likelihood to report a pediatric medication error: Examination of the "pre-reporting" period

Each year, hospitalized patients experience 1.5 million preventable injuries from medication errors and hospitals incur an additional $3.5 billion in cost (Aspden, Wolcott, Bootman, & Cronenwatt; (2007). It is believed that error reporting is one way to learn about factors contributing to medication errors. And yet, an estimated 50% of medication errors go unreported. This period of medication error pre-reporting, with few exceptions, is underexplored. The literature focuses on error prevention and management, but lacks a description of the period of introspection and inner struggle over whether to report an error and resulting likelihood to report. Reporting makes a nurse vulnerable to reprimand, legal liability, and even threat to licensure. For some nurses this state may invoke a disparity between a person‘s belief about him or herself as a healer and the undeniable fact of the error.^ This study explored the medication error reporting experience. Its purpose was to inform nurses, educators, organizational leaders, and policy-makers about the medication error pre-reporting period, and to contribute to a framework for further investigation. From a better understanding of factors that contribute to or detract from the likelihood of an individual to report an error, interventions can be identified to help the nurse come to a psychologically healthy resolution and help increase reporting of error in order to learn from error and reduce the possibility of future similar error.^ The research question was: "What factors contribute to a nurse's likelihood to report an error?" The specific aims of the study were to: (1) describe participant nurses' perceptions of medication error reporting; (2) describe participant explanations of the emotional, cognitive, and physical reactions to making a medication error; (3) identify pre-reporting conditions that make it less likely for a nurse to report a medication error; and (4) identify pre-reporting conditions that make it more likely for a nurse to report a medication error.^ A qualitative research study was conducted to explore the medication error experience and in particular the pre-reporting period from the perspective of the nurse. A total of 54 registered nurses from a large private free-standing not-for-profit children's hospital in the southwestern United States participated in group interviews. The results describe the experience of the nurse as well as the physical, emotional, and cognitive responses to the realization of the commission of a medication error. The results also reveal factors that make it more and less likely to report a medication error.^ It is clear from this study that upon realization that he or she has made a medication error, a nurse's foremost concern is for the safety of the patient. Fear was also described by each group of nurses. The nurses described a fear of several things including physician reaction, manager reaction, peer reaction, as well as family reaction and possible lack of trust as a result. Another universal response was the description of a struggle with guilt, shame, imperfection, blaming oneself, and questioning one's competence.^

Slope estimation in a parametric measurement error model: A simulation study

In regression analysis, covariate measurement error occurs in many applications. The error-prone covariates are often referred to as latent variables. In this proposed study, we extended the study of Chan et al. (2008) on recovering latent slope in a simple regression model to that in a multiple regression model. We presented an approach that applied the Monte Carlo method in the Bayesian framework to the parametric regression model with the measurement error in an explanatory variable. The proposed estimator applied the conditional expectation of latent slope given the observed outcome and surrogate variables in the multiple regression models. A simulation study was presented showing that the method produces estimator that is efficient in the multiple regression model, especially when the measurement error variance of surrogate variable is large.^

Zircons, isotope ratios and element analyses from tonalite and oxide gabbro of the mid-ocean ridge from ODP Hole 176-735B

A limiting factor in the accuracy and precision of U/Pb zircon dates is accurate correction for initial disequilibrium in the 238U and 235U decay chains. The longest-lived-and therefore most abundant-intermediate daughter product in the 235U isotopic decay chain is 231Pa (T1/2 = 32.71 ka), and the partitioning behavior of Pa in zircon is not well constrained. Here we report high-precision thermal ionization mass spectrometry (TIMS) U-Pb zircon data from two samples from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 735B, which show evidence for incorporation of excess 231Pa during zircon crystallization. The most precise analyses from the two samples have consistent Th-corrected 206Pb/238U dates with weighted means of 11.9325 ± 0.0039 Ma (n = 9) and 11.920 ± 0.011 Ma (n = 4), but distinctly older 207Pb/235U dates that vary from 12.330 ± 0.048 Ma to 12.140 ± 0.044 Ma and 12.03 ± 0.24 to 12.40 ± 0.27 Ma, respectively. If the excess 207Pb is due to variable initial excess 231Pa, calculated initial (231Pa)/(235U) activity ratios for the two samples range from 5.6 ± 1.0 to 9.6 ± 1.1 and 3.5 ± 5.2 to 11.4 ± 5.8. The data from the more precisely dated sample yields estimated DPazircon/DUzircon from 2.2-3.8 and 5.6-9.6, assuming (231Pa)/(235U) of the melt equal to the global average of recently erupted mid-ocean ridge basaltic glasses or secular equilibrium, respectively. High precision ID-TIMS analyses from nine additional samples from Hole 735B and nearby Hole 1105A suggest similar partitioning. The lower range of DPazircon/DUzircon is consistent with ion microprobe measurements of 231Pa in zircons from Holocene and Pleistocene rhyolitic eruptions (Schmitt (2007; doi:10.2138/am.2007.2449) and Schmitt (2011; doi:10.1146/annurev-earth-040610-133330)). The data suggest that 231Pa is preferentially incorporated during zircon crystallization over a range of magmatic compositions, and excess initial 231Pa may be more common in zircons than acknowledged. The degree of initial disequilibrium in the 235U decay chain suggested by the data from this study, and other recent high precision datasets, leads to resolvable discordance in high precision dates of Cenozoic to Mesozoic zircons. Minor discordance in zircons of this age may therefore reflect initial excess 231Pa and does not require either inheritance or Pb loss.

In vitro propagation of Glandularia peruviana (L.) Small, an ornamental native plant from South America

The flower market is characterized by being both eager for novelties and highly competitive. The exploration of native species with ornamental potential represents a remarkable area of research, since it entails the introduction and development of novel promising ornamental crops. The genus Glandularia, widely distributed in Argentina, holds an enormous ornamental potential, due to the variety of colors of its inflorescences (red, violet, white, rose and lily), and extended flowering period. There is little information on tissue culture of Glandularia, thus highlighting the relevance of this research. In this work, the conditions for in vitro multiplication of G. peruviana were optimized. It was concluded that WPM supplemented with TDZ, in concentrations ranging from 1.1 to 9.0 μM, was the most adequate treatment, rendering a multiplication rate of approximately 10 de novo shoots per explant. This paper presents a protocol for the in vitro propagation of this species and introduces interesting prospects in the application of biotechnological tools to breed Glandularia.

El sendero del acierto y la avenida del error : cinco puntos de error de decisión, sus combinaciones y consecuencias

Fil: Fornero, Ricardo A.. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Facultad de Ciencias Económicas

Las Casas y el pensamiento de Colón : la trama semántica del mundo como la oportunidad del error

Esta ponencia continúa otra en la que analizamos la descripción del nuevo mundo y el funcionamiento de la analogía, a partir de estudios críticos referidos a los Diarios del Primer Viaje de Cristóbal Colón. En esta oportunidad se analizará la dificultad que plantea diferenciar el discurso de Colón en sus Diarios del discurso de Las Casas. En este sentido, la presente ponencia estudiará las intervenciones de Las Casas en el diario de Colón desde su posible inclusión en la episteme de la representación organizada por Michel Foucault en Las palabras y las cosas, en la que indica que en cada momento cultural solo una episteme otorgará las condiciones de posibilidad de todo conocimiento, condiciones que serán otras para una nueva disposición general de los saberes o episteme. Nuestro trabajo consistirá en establecer diferencias epistemológicas entre el discurso colombino, obtenido en dicho diario, y el discurso intercalado de Las Casas (en el mismo texto). Así entonces, desde esta perspectiva, podría considerarse el diálogo textual de los discursos de Colón y de Las Casas desde aquello que los hace posibles, es decir, desde configuraciones del saber (epistemológicas) profundamente diferentes.

El error como anacronismo en la enseñanza de la ciencia

La historia "canónica" de la ciencia es un relato anacrónico plagado de profundas dicotómías, sobredestacando los éxitos (descubrimientos, hallazgos, modelos teóricos triunfantes, hitos) y desestimando los fracasos. En la verdadera ciencia, hay discusión, debate y controversia constantes, alimentados por la dinámica propia de las comunidades disciplinares. En la enseñanza de la ciencia el análisis del "error" puede resultar mucho más interesante como constructo de la evolución del conocimiento, que su simple señalización como demarcación de teorías exitosas. Es igualmente valioso el estudio del fraude. Como la actividad científica depende fuertemente de la publicación, está por tanto condicionada por el discurso. La manipulación hábil de este discurso puede, en ocasiones, hacer especialmente difícil de identificar el artificio, el sesgo, el engaño. El enfoque conocido como "naturaleza de la ciencia" nos permite aprovechar estos elementos para comprender el funcionamiento interno e intrincado del ethos científico, y transmitir a los alumnos dimensiones controversiales de la ciencia como actividad social. La enseñanza de la ciencia puede sacar mucho provecho de estos dispositivos, que permiten segundas lecturas sobre hechos históricos. Traemos a consideración dos hechos científicos de principios del siglo XX, para examinar las complejas relaciones que una simple calificación de fraude o error impediría observar. Destacamos además el casi nulo tratamiento que tienen estos compromisos en los textos escolares de uso corriente. Realizamos sugerencias para que estos temas tengan inclusión en dispositivos didácticos con un enfoque epistemológico más actualizado, que revele el contexto y las tensiones a las que está sujeta la construcción del conocimiento

"En el monumento Resuçitest, fust alos ynfiernos" : ¿Error del poeta o influencia de una fuente en el Cantar de Mio Cid?

El presente trabajo vuelve a los vv. 358-361 del Cantar de Mio Cid sobre un tema que ha perturbado a la crítica: el texto conservado en el Códice de Vivar refiere que Jesús resucitó primero, y luego descendió a los Infiernos, lo cual implica una inversión del orden tradicional de los acontecimientos. En consecuencia, se revisan aquí las distintas opiniones sobre el particular, que en general pueden dividirse básicamente en dos grupos -aquellas que sostienen que el poeta cometió un error, y otras que afirman que el autor del poema adhirió a un determinado modelo, proveniente ya de la épica francesa, ya de la liturgia-, y se intenta arribar a una solución que considere más satisfactoriamente la especificidad del texto manuscrito.

Consideraciones sobre la noción de error en la enseñanza de portugués

El siguiente artículo tiene por objetivo dar a conocer el debate vigente en la sociedad brasileña sobre la noción de error en la enseñanza de portugués. Como la concepción normativa de lengua como estructura gramatical abstracta, formal y con ejemplos descontextualizados o extraídos de los clásicos de la literatura entra en confrontación, a partir de la segunda mitad del siglo XX, con las teorías lingüísticas y sus metodologías que pasan a estudiar la lengua más allá del sistema abstracto y formal descripto por la gramática tradicional. Por otro lado, reflexionar sobre la importancia de trabajar esta realidad con los alumnos del profesorado en portugués, ya que es muy importante que el futuro profesor reconozca la variación lingüística, asuma que la enseñanza de lengua no está exclusivamente asociada a la gramática tradicional y también que incorpore los conceptos de adecuación e inadecuación al evaluar la producción escrita y oral de sus futuros alumnos