Improving the risk concept: a revision of Arrow-Pratt theory in the context of controlled dynamic stochastic environments

In the literature on risk, one generally assume that uncertainty is uniformly distributed over the entire working horizon, when the absolute risk-aversion index is negative and constant. From this perspective, the risk is totally exogenous, and thus independent of endogenous risks. The classic procedure is "myopic" with regard to potential changes in the future behavior of the agent due to inherent random fluctuations of the system. The agent's attitude to risk is rigid. Although often criticized, the most widely used hypothesis for the analysis of economic behavior is risk-neutrality. This borderline case must be envisaged with prudence in a dynamic stochastic context. The traditional measures of risk-aversion are generally too weak for making comparisons between risky situations, given the dynamic �complexity of the environment. This can be highlighted in concrete problems in finance and insurance, context for which the Arrow-Pratt measures (in the small) give ambiguous.

Improving the effort concept: a revision of the traditional approach in the context of controlled Dynamic Stochastic Environments

The objective of this paper is to re-evaluate the attitude to effort of a risk-averse decision-maker in an evolving environment. In the classic analysis, the space of efforts is generally discretized. More realistic, this new approach emploies a continuum of effort levels. The presence of multiple possible efforts and performance levels provides a better basis for explaining real economic phenomena. The traditional approach (see, Laffont, J. J. & Tirole, J., 1993, Salanie, B., 1997, Laffont, J.J. and Martimort, D, 2002, among others) does not take into account the potential effect of the system dynamics on the agent's behavior to effort over time. In the context of a Principal-agent relationship, not only the incentives of the Principal can determine the private agent to allocate a good effort, but also the evolution of the dynamic system. The incentives can be ineffective when the environment does not incite the agent to invest a good effort. This explains why, some effici

Static and dynamic shoulder stabilizer adaptations in javelin throwers: A preliminary study

BACKGROUND: Adaptations to Internal (IR) and external (ER) rotator shoulder muscles improving overhead throwing kinematics could lead to muscular strength imbalances and be considered an intrinsic risk factor for shoulder injury, as well as modified shoulder range of motion (RoM). OBJECTIVE: To establish profiles of internal and external rotation RoM and isokinetic IR and ER strength in adolescent- and national-level javelin throwers. METHODS: Fourteen healthy subjects were included in this preliminary cross-sectional study, 7 javelin throwers (JTG) and 7 nonathletes (CG). Passive internal and external rotation RoM were measured at 90 degrees of shoulder abduction. Isokinetic strength of dominant and non-dominant IR and ER was evaluated during concentric (60, 120 and 240 degrees/s) and eccentric (60 degrees/s) contractions by Con-Trex (R) dynamometer with the subject in a seated position with 45 degrees of shoulder abduction in the scapular plane. RESULTS: We reported significantly lower internal rotation and significantly higher external rotation RoM in JTG than in CG. Concentric and eccentric IR and ER strength were significantly higher for the dominant shoulder side in JTG (P < 0.05), without significant differences in ER/IR ratios. CONCLUSIONS: The main finding of this preliminary study confirmed static and dynamic shoulder stabilizer adaptations due to javelin throw practice in a population of adolescent- and national-level javelin throwers.

Coupling and monotonicity of queueing processes

The main purpose of this work is to give a survey of main monotonicity properties of queueing processes based on the coupling method. The literature on this topic is quite extensive, and we do not consider all aspects of this topic. Our more concrete goal is to select the most interesting basic monotonicity results and give simple and elegant proofs. Also we give a few new (or revised) proofs of a few important monotonicity properties for the queue-size and workload processes both in single-server and multi- server systems. The paper is organized as follows. In Section 1, the basic notions and results on coupling method are given. Section 2 contains known coupling results for renewal processes with focus on construction of synchronized renewal instants for a superposition of independent renewal processes. In Section 3, we present basic monotonicity results for the queue-size and workload processes. We consider both discrete-and continuous-time queueing systems with single and multi servers. Less known results on monotonicity of queueing processes with dependent service times and interarrival times are also presented. Section 4 is devoted to monotonicity of general Jackson-type queueing networks with Markovian routing. This section is based on the notable paper [17]. Finally, Section 5 contains elements of stability analysis of regenerative queues and networks, where coupling and monotonicity results play a crucial role to establish minimal suficient stability conditions. Besides, we present some new monotonicity results for tandem networks.

RADIC II: a fault tolerant architecture with flexible dynamic redundancy

The demand for computational power has been leading the improvement of the High Performance Computing (HPC) area, generally represented by the use of distributed systems like clusters of computers running parallel applications. In this area, fault tolerance plays an important role in order to provide high availability isolating the application from the faults effects. Performance and availability form an undissociable binomial for some kind of applications. Therefore, the fault tolerant solutions must take into consideration these two constraints when it has been designed. In this dissertation, we present a few side-effects that some fault tolerant solutions may presents when recovering a failed process. These effects may causes degradation of the system, affecting mainly the overall performance and availability. We introduce RADIC-II, a fault tolerant architecture for message passing based on RADIC (Redundant Array of Distributed Independent Fault Tolerance Controllers) architecture. RADIC-II keeps as maximum as possible the RADIC features of transparency, decentralization, flexibility and scalability, incorporating a flexible dynamic redundancy feature, allowing to mitigate or to avoid some recovery side-effects.

Depleted arc volcanism in the Alboran Sea and shoshonitic volcanism in Morocco: geochemical and isotopic constraints on Neogene tectonic processes

Samples of volcanic rocks from Alboran Island, the Alboran Sea floor and from the Gourougou volcanic centre in northern Morocco have been analyzed for major and trace elements and Sr-Nd isotopes to test current theories on the tectonic geodynamic evolution of the Alboran Sea. The Alboran Island samples are low-K tholeiitic basaltic andesites whose depleted contents of HFS elements (similar to0.5xN-MORB), especially Nb (similar to0.2xN-MORB), show marked geochemical parallels with volcanics from immature intra-oceanic arcs and back-arc basins. Several of the submarine samples have similar compositions, one showing low-Ca boninite affinity. Nd-143/Nd-144 ratios fall in the same range as many island-arc and back-arc basin samples, whereas Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios (on leached samples) are somewhat more radiogenic. Our data point to active subduction taking place beneath the Alboran region in Miocene times, and imply the presence of an associated back-arc spreading centre. Our sea floor suite includes a few more evolved dacite and rhyolite samples with (Sr-87/Sr-86)(0) up to 0.717 that probably represent varying degrees of crustal melting. The shoshonite and high-K basaltic andesite lavas from Gourougou have comparable normalized incompatible-element enrichment diagrams and Ce/Y ratios to shoshonitic volcanics from oceanic island arcs, though they have less pronounced Nb deficits. They are much less LIL- and LREE-enriched than continental arc analogues and post-collisional shoshonites from Tibet. The magmas probably originated by melting in subcontinental lithospheric mantle that had experienced negligible subduction input. Sr-Nd isotope compositions point to significant crustal contamination which appears to account for the small Nb anomalies. The unmistakable supra-subduction zone (SSZ) signature shown by our Alboran basalts and basaltic andesite samples refutes geodynamic models that attribute all Neogene volcanism in the Alboran domain to decompression melting of upwelling asthenosphere arising from convective thinning of over-thickened lithosphere. Our data support recent models in which subsidence is caused by westward rollback of an eastward-dipping subduction zone beneath the westemmost Mediterranean. Moreover, severance of the lithosphere at the edges of the rolling-back slab provides opportunities for locally melting lithospheric mantle, providing a possible explanation for the shoshonitic volcanism seen in northern Morocco and more sporadically in SE Spain. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cell-matrix interactions in Schistosomal portal fibrosis: a dynamic event

In recent years, one of the most significant progress in the understanding of liver diseases was the demonstration that liver fibrosis is a dynamic process resulting from a balance between synthesis and degradation of several matrix components, collagen in particular. Thus, fibrosis has been found to be a very early event during liver diseases, be it of toxic, viral or parasitic origin, and to be spontaneously reversible, either partially or totally. In liver fibrosis cell matrix interactions are dependent on the existence of the many factors (sometimes acting in combination) which produce the same events at the cellular and molecular levels. These events are: (i) the recruitment of fiber-producing cells, (ii) their proliferation, (iii) the secretion of matrix constituents of the extracellular matrix, and (iv) the remodeling and degradation of the newly formed matrix. All these events represent, at least in principle, a target for a therapeutic intervention aimed at influencing the experimentally induced hepatic fibrosis. In this context, hepatosplenic schistosomiasis is of particular interest, being an immune cell-mediated granulomatous disease and a model of liver fibrosis allowing extensive studies in human and animals as well as providing original in vitro models.

Modeling of in-situ crystallization processes in the Permian mafic layered intrusion of Mont Collon (Dent Blanche nappe, western Alps)

The Mont Collon mafic complex is one of the best preserved examples of the Early Permian magmatism in the Central Alps, related to the intra-continental collapse of the Variscan belt. It mostly consists (> 95 vol.%) of ol+hy-nonnative plagioclase-wehrlites, olivine- and cpx-gabbros with cumulitic structures, crosscut by acid dikes. Pegmatitic gabbros, troctolites and anorthosites outcrop locally. A well-preserved cumulative, sequence is exposed in the Dents de Bertol area (center of intrusion). PT-calculations indicate that this layered magma chamber emplaced at mid-crustal levels at about 0.5 GPa and 1100 degrees C. The Mont Collon cumulitic rocks record little magmatic differentiation, as illustrated by the restricted range of clinopyroxene mg-number (Mg#(cpx)=83-89). Whole-rock incompatible trace-element contents (e.g. Nb, Zr, Ba) vary largely and without correlation with major-element composition. These features are characteristic of an in-situ crystallization process with variable amounts of interstitial liquid L trapped between the cumulus mineral phases. LA-ICPMS measurements show that trace-element distribution in the latter is homogeneous, pointing to subsolidus re-equilibration between crystals and interstitial melts. A quantitative modeling based on Langmuir's in-situ crystallization equation successfully duplicated the REE concentrations in cumulitic minerals of all rock facies of the intrusion. The calculated amounts of interstitial liquid L vary between 0 and 35% for degrees of differentiation F of 0 to 20%, relative to the least evolved facies of the intrusion. L values are well correlated with the modal proportions of interstitial amphibole and whole-rock incompatible trace-element concentrations (e.g. Zr, Nb) of the tested samples. However, the in-situ crystallization model reaches its limitations with rock containing high modal content of REE-bearing minerals (i.e. zircon), such as pegmatitic gabbros. Dikes of anorthositic composition, locally crosscutting the layered lithologies, evidence that the Mont Collon rocks evolved in open system with mixing of intercumulus liquids of different origins and possibly contrasting compositions. The proposed model is not able to resolve these complex open systems, but migrating liquids could be partly responsible for the observed dispersion of points in some correlation diagrams. Absence of significant differentiation with recurrent lithologies in the cumulitic pile of Dents de Bertol points to an efficiently convective magma chamber, with possible periodic replenishment, (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

From creative ideas to new emerging ventures: the process of identification and exploitation among finnish design entrepreneurs

This study focuses on identification and exploitation processes among Finnish design entrepreneurs (i.e. selfemployed industrial designers). More specifically, this study strives to find out what design entrepreneurs do when they create new ventures, how venture ideas are identified and how entrepreneurial processes are organized to identify and exploit such venture ideas in the given industrial context. Indeed, what does educated and creative individuals do when they decide to create new ventures, where do the venture ideas originally come from, and moreover, how are venture ideas identified and developed into viable business concepts that are introduced on the markets? From an academic perspective: there is a need to increase our understanding of the interaction between the identification and exploitation of emerging ventures, in this and other empirical contexts. Rather than assuming that venture ideas are constant in time, this study examines how emerging ideas are adjusted to enable exploitation in dynamic market settings. It builds on the insights from previous entrepreneurship process research. The interpretations from the theoretical discussion build on the assumption that the subprocesses of identification and exploitation interact, and moreover, they are closely entwined with each other (e.g. McKelvie & Wiklund, 2004, Davidsson, 2005). This explanation challenges the common assumption that entrepreneurs would first identify venture ideas and then exploit them (e.g. Shane, 2003). The assumption is that exploitation influences identification, just as identification influences exploitation. Based on interviews with design entrepreneurs and external actors (e.g. potential customers, suppliers and collaborators), it appears as identification and exploitation of venture ideas are carried out in close interaction between a number of actors, rather than alone by entrepreneurs. Due to their available resources, design entrepreneurs have a desire to focus on identification related activities and to find external actors that take care of exploitation related activities. The involvement of external actors may have a direct impact on decisionmaking and various activities along the processes of identification and exploitation, which is something that previous research does not particularly emphasize. For instance, Bhave (1994) suggests both operative and strategic feedback from the market, but does not explain how external parties are actually involved in the decisionmaking, and in carrying out various activities along the entrepreneurial process.

Explaining High Economic Growth in Small Tourism Countries with a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model

This paper shows that tourism specialisation can help to explain the observed high growth rates of small countries. For this purpose, two models of growth and trade are constructed to represent the trade relations between two countries. One of the countries is large, rich, has an own source of sustained growth and produces a tradable capital good. The other is a small poor economy, which does not have an own engine of growth and produces tradable tourism services. The poor country exports tourism services to and imports capital goods from the rich economy. In one model tourism is a luxury good, while in the other the expenditure elasticity of tourism imports is unitary. Two main results are obtained. In the long run, the tourism country overcomes decreasing returns and permanently grows because its terms of trade continuously improve. Since the tourism sector is relatively less productive than the capital good sector, tourism services become relatively scarcer and hence more expensive than the capital good. Moreover, along the transition the growth rate of the tourism economy holds well above the one of the rich country for a long time. The growth rate differential between countries is particularly high when tourism is a luxury good. In this case, there is a faster increase in the tourism demand. As a result, investment of the small economy is boosted and its terms of trade highly improve.

Dynamic Option Adjusted Spread and the Value of Mortgage Backed Securities (Draft 1)

We extend a reduced form model for pricing pass-through mortgage backed securities (MBS) and provide a novel hedging tool for investors in this market. To calculate the price of an MBS, traders use what is known as option-adjusted spread (OAS). The resulting OAS value represents the required basis points adjustment to reference curve discounting rates needed to match an observed market price. The OAS suffers from some drawbacks. For example, it remains constant until the maturity of the bond (thirty years in mortgage-backed securities), and does not incorporate interest rate volatility. We suggest instead what we call dynamic option adjusted spread (DOAS). The latter allows investors in the mortgage market to account for both prepayment risk and changes of the yield curve.