Impact of reliability of supply on long-term development approaches to electricity distribution networks

The Finnish electricity distribution sector, rural areas in particular, is facing major challenges because of the economic regulation, tightening supply security requirements and the ageing network asset. Therefore, the target in the distribution network planning and asset management is to develop and renovate the networks to meet these challenges in compliance with the regulations in an economically feasible way. Concerning supply security, the new Finnish Electricity Market Act limits the maximum duration of electricity supply interruptions to six hours in urban areas and 36 hours in rural areas. This has a significant impact on distribution network planning, especially in rural areas where the distribution networks typically require extensive modifications and renovations to meet the supply security requirements. This doctoral thesis introduces a methodology to analyse electricity distribution system development. The methodology is based on and combines elements of reliability analysis, asset management and economic regulation. The analysis results can be applied, for instance, to evaluate the development of distribution reliability and to consider actions to meet the tightening regulatory requirements. Thus, the methodology produces information for strategic decision-making so that DSOs can respond to challenges arising in the electricity distribution sector. The key contributions of the thesis are a network renovation concept for rural areas, an analysis to assess supply security, and an evaluation of the effects of economic regulation on the strategic network planning. In addition, the thesis demonstrates how the reliability aspect affects the placement of automation devices and how the reserve power can be arranged in a rural area network.

Myynti ja toimituskanavan valinta ulkomaan kaupassa, kohdemaa Venäjä

Parissa kymmenessä vuodessa on tapahtunut paljon muutoksia. Neuvostoliitto hajosi, Suomen talousrakenne muuttui, globalisaatio kiihtyy kasvavalla vauhdilla, viennin kuljetusmuotoihin on tullut muutoksia, mutta yritystoiminta edellyttää pysymistä ajan tasalla. Tässä diplomityössä tutkitaan myynti- ja toimituskanavien valintoja EU:sta Venäjälle tapahtuvissa viennissä. Työssä käytetään Venäjältä saatavaa tietoa, sillä suurimmat lopputulokseen vaikuttavat kuljetuskustannukset kuten kuljetus, tavaran käsittely ja välivarastointi syntyvät Venäjän puolella. Vienti EU:sta Venäjälle on kasvanut koko ajan tasaisella vauhdilla ja muodostanut samalla tavanomaisesta poikkeavia kuljetusmenetelmiä. Suomessa pk-yrityksillä ei ole resursseja perehtyä aiheeseen, mutta koko ajan yhä useammat yritykset harjoittavat kauppaa ohjaamalla tavaran valmistajalta suoraan vastaanottajalle. Silloin tavara on lähetettävä esimerkiksi eurooppalaiselta keskusvarastolta Venäjälle, jolloin säästytään turhista kuljetuksista Suomen kautta. Työssä tutkitaan yleisimpiä käytössä olevia kuljetusmuotoja, rautatiekuljetuksen potentiaalia ja maantiekuljetuksen mahdollisuuksia. Siinä analysoidaan logistisen teorian pääpiirteitä, yritystoiminnan logistisia prosesseja samoin kuin EU:n vientisäädöksiä ja EU:sta lähtevien vientikuljetuksien organisointiongelmia. Käytössäni on logististen prosessien rakenteen metodologia. Työssä suoritetaan vientiprosessin tutkimus ja esitetään suoritetun tutkimuksen tulokset. Tuloksien pohjalta tehdään päätökset.

Taxonomy and distribution of the green algal genus Halimeda (Bryopsidales, Chlorophyta) in Brazil

Halimeda is a genus of calcified coenocytic green algae with a well known ecological importance in some tropical areas. Bleached calcified segments of Halimeda may accumulate in large deposits of economic potential as is the case in the northeastern coast of Brazil. In a survey of the genus in Brazil based on recent collections and examination of abundant material deposited on Brazilian herbaria we identified seven species: Halimeda cuneata Hering, H. discoidea Decaisne, H. gracilis Harvey ex J. Agardh, H. incrassata (Ellis) Lamouroux, H. opuntia (Linnaeus) Lamouroux, H. simulans Howe and H. tuna (Ellis & Solander) Lamouroux. These species are described in detail, with emphasis on diagnostic characters. Our study has shown that the shape and size of the utricula in surface view, under scanning electron microscopy, can be utilized to discriminate some species. Fertile specimens of Halimeda cuneata and H. discoidea are reported for the first time in the region. Data on vertical and geographical distribution are presented for each species and the southern limit of the genus in the western Atlantic was extended.

The duality of tactical thought : a study of how Swedish land forces' commanders view tactics in irregular warfare

This is a sociological study of the views of officers in the Swedish Army and its Amphibious Forces on tactics in Irregular Warfare (IW), in particular, Counterinsurgency (COIN). IW comprises struggles, where the military weaker part uses an indirect approach with smaller units and integrates the civilian and military dimensions in a violence spectrum including subversion, terrorism, Guerrilla Warfare and infantry actions. IW is the main armed warfare style in insurgencies. COIN is the combined political, military, economic, social and legal actions in counter insurgencies. Data has been collected by means of interviews with almost all (n =43) officers, who were either commanding battalions or rifle and manoeuvre companies while undergoing training for general warfare and international operations. The main theoretical and methodological inspiration is the traditional one for research on social fields, inaugurated by the French sociologist Pierre Bourdieu. The statistical technique used is Multiple Correspondence Analysis. As a background and context base, an inquiry inspired by the Begriffsgechichte (Conceptual History) tradition explores the genesis and development of understandings of the term Irregular Warfare. The research question is outlined as; “how can contemporary Swedish military thought on tactics in Irregular Warfare be characterized using descriptive patterns, mapped in relation to background factors and normative standards? The most significant findings are that there are two main opposing notions separating the officers’ views on tactics in Irregular Warfare: (1) a focus on larger, combat oriented and collectively operating military units versus smaller and larger, more intelligence oriented and dispersed operating units, and (2) a focus on military tasks and kinetic effects versus military and civilian tasks as well as “soft” effects. The distribution of these views can be presented as a two-dimensional space structured by the two axes. This space represents four categories of tactics, partly diverging from normative military standards for Counterinsurgency. This social space of standpoints shows different structural tendencies for background factors of social and cultural character, particularly dominant concerning military backgrounds, international mission experiences and civilian education. Compared to military standards for Counterinsurgency, the two tactical types characterized by a Regular Warfare mind-set stands out as counter-normative. Signs of creative thought on military practice and theory, as well as a still persistent Regular Warfare doxa are apparent. Power struggles might thus develop, effecting the transformation to a broadened warfare culture with an enhanced focus also on Irregular Warfare. The result does not support research results arguing for a convergence of military thought in the European transformation of Armed Forces. The main argument goes beyond tactics and suggests sociological analysis on reciprocal effects regarding strategy, operational art, tactics as well as leadership, concerning the mind-set and preferences for Regular, Irregular and Hybrid Warfare.

Distribution network design and optimization

The objective of this thesis is to examine distribution network designs and modeling practices and create a framework to identify best possible distribution network structure for the case company. The main research question therefore is: How to optimize case company’s distribution network in terms of customer needs and costs? Theory chapters introduce the basic building blocks of the distribution network design and needed calculation methods and models. Framework for the distribution network projects was created based on the theory and the case study was carried out by following the defined framework. Distribution network calculations were based on the company’s sales plan for the years 2014 - 2020. Main conclusions and recommendations were that the new Asian business strategy requires high investments in logistics and the first step is to open new satellite DC in China as soon as possible to support sales and second possible step is to open regional DC in Asia within 2 - 4 years.

Apply of energy storages in electricity distribution networks and reserve capacity applications

The Thesis is dedicated to development of an operative tool to support decision making of battery energy storages implementation in distribution networks. The basics of various battery technologies, their perspectives and challenges are represented in the Thesis. Mathematical equations that describe economic effect from battery energy storage installation are offered. The main factors that influence profitability of battery settings have been explored and mathematically defined. Mathematical model and principal trends of battery storage profitability under an impact of the major factors are determined. The meaning of annual net value was introduced to show the difference between savings and required costs. The model gives a clear vision for dependencies between annual net value and main factors. Proposals for optimal network and battery characteristics are suggested.

Ellagitannins in Finnish plant species – Characterization, distribution and oxidative activity

Ellagitannins are secondary metabolites that are produced by plants. Among other features, they are assumed to function as plants’ defensive compounds against plant-eating herbivores. This thesis focuses on a theory, which suggests that the biological activity of ellagitannins is based on their tendency to oxidize at the highly alkaline gut conditions of insect herbivores (oxidative activity). To study the biological activities of ellagitannins, a wide variety of structurally different ellagitannins were purified from different plant species by using liquid chromatographic techniques. The structures were characterized with the aid of spectrometric methods. Based on the acquired data, it was also possible to create a scheme, which enables the classification and even identification of ellagitannins from plant extracts without the need to isolate each compound for individual characterization. The biological activities of ellagitannins were determined with methods that are based on the abilities of the compounds to scavenge radicals, chelate iron ions, and on their rate of oxidation at high pH. The results showed that ellagitannins possess oxidative activities both at high and neutral pH, and that their activities depend on structure. The occurrence, distribution and content of ellagitannins in Finnish plant species were also studied. The specific ellagitannin profiles of the studied plant species were found to correlate well with their taxonomic classification.

Modelling of changes in electricity end-use and their impacts on electricity distribution

The electricity distribution sector will face significant changes in the future. Increasing reliability demands will call for major network investments. At the same time, electricity end-use is undergoing profound changes. The changes include future energy technologies and other advances in the field. New technologies such as microgeneration and electric vehicles will have different kinds of impacts on electricity distribution network loads. In addition, smart metering provides more accurate electricity consumption data and opportunities to develop sophisticated load modelling and forecasting approaches. Thus, there are both demands and opportunities to develop a new type of long-term forecasting methodology for electricity distribution. The work concentrates on the technical and economic perspectives of electricity distribution. The doctoral dissertation proposes a methodology to forecast electricity consumption in the distribution networks. The forecasting process consists of a spatial analysis, clustering, end-use modelling, scenarios and simulation methods, and the load forecasts are based on the application of automatic meter reading (AMR) data. The developed long-term forecasting process produces power-based load forecasts. By applying these results, it is possible to forecast the impacts of changes on electrical energy in the network, and further, on the distribution system operator’s revenue. These results are applicable to distribution network and business planning. This doctoral dissertation includes a case study, which tests the forecasting process in practice. For the case study, the most prominent future energy technologies are chosen, and their impacts on the electrical energy and power on the network are analysed. The most relevant topics related to changes in the operating environment, namely energy efficiency, microgeneration, electric vehicles, energy storages and demand response, are discussed in more detail. The study shows that changes in electricity end-use may have radical impacts both on electrical energy and power in the distribution networks and on the distribution revenue. These changes will probably pose challenges for distribution system operators. The study suggests solutions for the distribution system operators on how they can prepare for the changing conditions. It is concluded that a new type of load forecasting methodology is needed, because the previous methods are no longer able to produce adequate forecasts.

Um modelo macrodinâmico pós-keynesiano de simulação

A post-keynesian macro-dynamic model of simulation. The objective of this article is to present the structure and the simulation results of a one-sector macro-dynamic model that embeds some elements of the post-keynesian theory. The computational simulation of the model replicates some important features of capitalist dynamics as the phenomenon of cyclical growth, the long-run stability of the profit rate and functional distribution of income, the maintenance of idle-capacity in the long-run and the occurrence of a single episode of deep fall in real economic activity, which is in accordance with the rarity character of great crashes in the history of capitalism. Moreover, the simulation results show that a great reduction in inflation rate will be followed by an increase of financial fragility, increasing the like-hood of a great depression. As a policy advice derived from the simulation results, we can state that the Central Bank should never promote big reductions in inflation rate.

The political role of the State in Cambridge theories of growth and distribution

In this paper we extend Kaldor’s Neo-Pasinetti theorem to the scope of budgetary interventions based on political orientations. First, we take into account a system of taxes and expenditures. Second, we introduce different reaction functions for public spending showing the political role of the State in Cambridge theory of distribution. It turns out that the validity of Kaldorian results depends on the political orientation adopted by government, which diminishes the range of application of the Neo-Pasinetti theorem.

Economic capital allocation

For my Licentiate thesis, I conducted research on risk measures. Continuing with this research, I now focus on capital allocation. In the proportional capital allocation principle, the choice of risk measure plays a very important part. In the chapters Introduction and Basic concepts, we introduce three definitions of economic capital, discuss the purpose of capital allocation, give different viewpoints of capital allocation and present an overview of relevant literature. Risk measures are defined and the concept of coherent risk measure is introduced. Examples of important risk measures are given, e. g., Value at Risk (VaR), Tail Value at Risk (TVaR). We also discuss the implications of dependence and review some important distributions. In the following chapter on Capital allocation we introduce different principles for allocating capital. We prefer to work with the proportional allocation method. In the following chapter, Capital allocation based on tails, we focus on insurance business lines with heavy-tailed loss distribution. To emphasize capital allocation based on tails, we define the following risk measures: Conditional Expectation, Upper Tail Covariance and Tail Covariance Premium Adjusted (TCPA). In the final chapter, called Illustrative case study, we simulate two sets of data with five insurance business lines using Normal copulas and Cauchy copulas. The proportional capital allocation is calculated using TCPA as risk measure. It is compared with the result when VaR is used as risk measure and with covariance capital allocation. In this thesis, it is emphasized that no single allocation principle is perfect for all purposes. When focusing on the tail of losses, the allocation based on TCPA is a good one, since TCPA in a sense includes features of TVaR and Tail covariance.

Economic stagnation in the United States: underlying causes and global consequences

This paper analyzes the causes of the slow recovery of the US economy since the financial crisis and Great Recession of 2008-9. Fallen house values and excessive household debts continue to depress consumer spending, while corporations are failing to invest in spite of record profits. The increasingly unequal distribution of income limits demand, while long-term structural transformations continue to erode employment creation. An expansionary monetary policy has been incapable of sparking a more robust recovery and fiscal policy has been shifted to an austerity stance. In this context, Brazil and other emerging market nations cannot count on the United States to continue to be the leading source of global demand as it was in previous decades.

Neoliberalism and global capital mobility: a necessary reconsideration of textbook trade theory

Textbook theory ignores capital flows: trade determines exchange rates and specialisation. Approaches taking the effects of capital movements adequately into account are needed, and a new theory of economic policy including measures to protect the real economy from external volatility. Equilibrating textbook mechanisms cannot work unless trade-caused surpluses and deficits set exchange rates. To allow orthodox trade theory to work one must hinder capital flows from destroying its very basis, which the IMF and wrong regulatory decisions have done, penalising production and trade. A new, real economy based theory is proposed, a Neoclassical agenda of controlling capital flows and speculation.

Price movement in the Brazilian land market (1994-2010): an analysis in the light of post-Keynesian theory

ABSTRACT The present study aims to evaluate crop, pasture and forest land prices in Brazil, between 1994 and 2010, in the light of Post-Keynesian theory. The results provide evidence that land, more than just a simple factor of production, must be conceived of as an economic asset. In fact, the price of rural land is determined not only by the expected profitability deriving from agricultural activities but also by the agents' expectations about its future appreciation and liquidity in an economic environment permeated with uncertainty. In this context, as an object of speculation, land has been particularly important as a store of value.

Performance Degradation Modelling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Lithium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Systems

Transmission system operators and distribution system operators are experiencing new challenges in terms of reliability, power quality, and cost efficiency. Although the potential of energy storages to face those challenges is recognized, the economic implications are still obscure, which introduce the risk into the business models. This thesis aims to investigate the technical and economic value indicators of lithium-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS) in grid-scale applications. In order to do that, a comprehensive performance lithium-ion BESS model with degradation effects estimation is developed. The model development process implies literature review on lifetime modelling, use, and modification of previous study progress, building the additional system parts and integrating it into a complete tool. The constructed model is capable of describing the dynamic behavior of the BESS voltage, state of charge, temperature and capacity loss. Five control strategies for BESS unit providing primary frequency regulation are implemented, in addition to the model. The questions related to BESS dimensioning and the end of life (EoL) criterion are addressed. Simulations are performed with one-month real frequency data acquired from Fingrid. The lifetime and cost-benefit analysis of the simulation results allow to compare and determine the preferable control strategy. Finally, the study performs the sensitivity analysis of economic profitability with variable size, EoL and system price. The research reports that BESS can be profitable in certain cases and presents the recommendations.