A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved.

The impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland: a Bayesian chronological analysis using ‘activity events’ as a population proxy

The potential impact of the abrupt 8.2 ka cold event on human demography, settlement patterns and culture in Europe and the Near East has emerged as a key theme in current discussion and debate. We test whether this event had an impact on the Mesolithic population of western Scotland, a case study located within the North Atlantic region where the environmental impact of the 8.2 ka event is likely to have been the most severe. By undertaking a Bayesian analysis of the radiocarbon record and using the number of activity events as a proxy for the size of the human population, we find evidence for a dramatic reduction in the Mesolithic population synchronous with the 8.2 ka event. We interpret this as reflecting the demographic collapse of a low density population that lacked the capability to adapt to the rapid onset of new environmental conditions. This impact of the 8.2 ka event in the North Atlantic region lends credence to the possibility of a similar impact on populations in Continental Europe and the Near East.

Large reorganizations in butterfly communities during an extreme weather event

Drought events are projected to increase in frequency and magnitude, which may alter the composition of ecological communities. Using a functional community metric that describes abundance, life history traits and conservation status, based upon Grime’s CSR (Competitive-Stress tolerant-Ruderal)¬ scheme, we investigated how British butterfly communities changed during an extreme drought in 1995. Throughout Britain, the total abundance of these insects had a significant tendency to increase, accompanied by substantial changes in community composition, particularly in more northerly, wetter sites. Communities tended to shift away from specialist, vulnerable species, and towards generalist, widespread species and, in the year following, communities had yet to return to equilibrium. Importantly, heterogeneity in surrounding landscapes mediated community responses to the drought event. Contrary to expectation, however, community shifts were more extreme in areas of greater topographic diversity, whilst land-cover diversity buffered community changes and limited declines in vulnerable specialist butterflies.

An event of stratospheric air intrusion and its associated secondary surface cyclogenesis over the South Atlantic Ocean

This work presents an analysis of a lowermost stratospheric air intrusion event over the coast of Brazil, which may have been responsible for a secondary surface cyclogenesis over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The surface cyclone initiated at 0600 UTC 17 April 1999 in a cold air mass in the rear of a cold front after a primary cyclone developed over the same region. The analysis of the secondary cyclone revealed the presence of lowermost stratospheric air intrusion characterized by anomalous potential vorticity (PV), dry air, and high concentration of ozone in atmospheric column. The system developed on the eastern side of an upper level core of PV anomaly, which induced a cyclonic wind circulation at lower levels and favored the onset of the secondary cyclone. In midlevels (500 hPa), the cutoff low development contributed to reduce the propagation speed of the wave pattern. This feature seemed to (1) allow the low-level cold/dry air to heat/moisten associated with sensible and latent fluxes transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere, which intensified a baroclinic zone parallel to the coast, and (2) contribute to the long duration of the system. The present analysis indicates that this secondary cyclone development could be the result of the coupling between the PV anomaly in the upper levels and low-level air-sea interaction.

Hypo- and hyperthyroidism affect NEI concentration in discrete brain areas of adult male rats

To date, there has been only one in vitro study of the relationship between neuropeptide EI (NEI) and the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid (HPT) axis. To investigate the possible relationship between NEI and the HPT axis, we developed a rat model of hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism that allows us to determine whether NEI content is altered in selected brain areas after treatment, as well as whether such alterations are related to the time of day. Hypothyroidism and hyperthyroidism, induced in male rats, with 6-propyl-1-thiouracil and L-thyroxine, respectively, were confirmed by determination of triiodothyronine, total thyroxine, and thyrotropin levels. All groups were studied at the morning and the afternoon. In rats with hypothyroidism, NEI concentration, evaluated on postinduction days 7 and 24, was unchanged or slightly elevated on day 7 but was decreased on day 24. In rats with hyperthyroidism, NEI content, which was evaluated after 4 days of L-thyroxine administration, was slightly elevated, principally in the preoptic area in the morning and in the median eminence-arcuate nucleus and pineal gland in the afternoon, the morning and afternoon NEI contents being similar in the controls. These results provide the bases to pursue the study of the interaction between NEI and the HPT axis. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Discrete retinal input to the parabrachial complex of a new-world primate, the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus)

Traditional retinal projections target three functionally complementary systems it) the brain of mammals: the primary visual system, the visuomotor integration systems and the circadian timing system. In recent years, studies in several animals have been conducted to investigate the retinal projections to these three systems, despite some evidence of additional targets. The aim of this study was to disclose a previously unknown connection between the retina and the parabrachial complex of the common marmoset, by means of the intraocular injection of cholera toxin Subunit b. A few labeled retinal fibers/terminals that are detected in the medial parabrachial portion of the marmoset brain show clear varicosities, Suggesting terminal fields. Although the possible role of these projections remains unknown, they may provide a modulation of the cholinergic parabrachial neurons which project to the thalamic dorsal lateral geniculate nucleus. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A unified view on lifetime distributions arising from selection mechanisms

In this paper, we formulate a flexible density function from the selection mechanism viewpoint (see, for example, Bayarri and DeGroot (1992) and Arellano-Valle et al. (2006)) which possesses nice biological and physical interpretations. The new density function contains as special cases many models that have been proposed recently in the literature. In constructing this model, we assume that the number of competing causes of the event of interest has a general discrete distribution characterized by its probability generating function. This function has an important role in the selection procedure as well as in computing the conditional personal cure rate. Finally, we illustrate how various models can be deduced as special cases of the proposed model. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

UNIFORM DISSIPATIVENESS, ROBUST SYNCHRONIZATION AND LOCATION OF THE ATTRACTOR OF PARAMETRIZED NONAUTONOMOUS DISCRETE SYSTEMS

In this series of papers, we study issues related to the synchronization of two coupled chaotic discrete systems arising from secured communication. The first part deals with uniform dissipativeness with respect to parameter variation via the Liapunov direct method. We obtain uniform estimates of the global attractor for a general discrete nonautonomous system, that yields a uniform invariance principle in the autonomous case. The Liapunov function is allowed to have positive derivative along solutions of the system inside a bounded set, and this reduces substantially the difficulty of constructing a Liapunov function for a given system. In particular, we develop an approach that incorporates the classical Lagrange multiplier into the Liapunov function method to naturally extend those Liapunov functions from continuous dynamical system to their discretizations, so that the corresponding uniform dispativeness results are valid when the step size of the discretization is small. Applications to the discretized Lorenz system and the discretization of a time-periodic chaotic system are given to illustrate the general results. We also show how to obtain uniform estimation of attractors for parametrized linear stable systems with nonlinear perturbation.

A faraway quasar in the direction of the highest energy Auger event

The highest energy cosmic ray event reported by the Auger Observatory has an energy of 148 EeV. It does not correlate with any nearby (z<0.024) object capable of originating such a high energy event. Intrigued by the fact that the highest energy event ever recorded (by the Fly`s Eye collaboration) points to a faraway quasar with very high radio luminosity and large Faraday rotation measurement, we have searched for a similar source for the Auger event. We find that the Auger highest energy event points to a quasar with similar characteristics to the one correlated to the Fly`s Eye event. We also find the same kind of correlation for one of the highest energy AGASA events. We conclude that so far these types of quasars are the best source candidates for both Auger and Fly`s Eye highest energy events. We discuss a few exotic candidates that could reach us from gigaparsec distances.

Continuum, Discrete, and Explicit Solvation Models for Describing the Low-Lying Absorption Spectrum of the Pterin Acid in Aqueous Environment

The absorption spectrum of the acid form of pterin in water was investigated theoretically. Different procedures using continuum, discrete, and explicit models were used to include the solvation effect on the absorption spectrum, characterized by two bands. The discrete and explicit models used Monte Carlo simulation to generate the liquid structure and time-dependent density functional theory (B3LYP/6-31G+(d)) to obtain the excitation energies. The discrete model failed to give the correct qualitative effect on the second absorption band. The continuum model, in turn, has given a correct qualitative picture and a semiquantitative description. The explicit use of 29 solvent molecules, forming a hydration shell of 6 angstrom, embedded in the electrostatic field of the remaining solvent molecules, gives absorption transitions at 3.67 and 4.59 eV in excellent agreement with the S(0)-S(1) and S(0)-S(2) absorption bands at of 3.66 and 4.59 eV, respectively, that characterize the experimental spectrum of pterin in water environment. (C) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem 110: 2371-2377, 2010

Solvent effects on the electronic absorption spectrum of camphor using continuum, discrete or explicit approaches

We address the effect of solvation on the lowest electronic excitation energy of camphor. The solvents considered represent a large variation in-solvent polarity. We consider three conceptually different ways of accounting for the solvent using either an implicit, a discrete or an explicit solvation model. The solvatochromic shifts in polar solvents are found to be in good agreement with the experimental data for all three solvent models. However, both the implicit and discrete solvation models are less successful in predicting solvatochromic shifts for solvents of low polarity. The results presented suggest the importance of using explicit solvent molecules in the case of nonpolar solvents. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Absolute normalization for uncorrelated background with the event mixing technique

We present a method to determine the magnitude of the uncorrelated background distribution obtained with the event mixing technique, through the simultaneous observation of the projectile elastic scattering in different detectors, which correspond to random coincidences. The procedure is tested with alpha-d angular correlation data from the (6)Li + (59)Co reaction at E(lab) = 29.6 MeV. We also show that the method can be applied using the product of singles events, when singles measurements are available. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A note on a practical relationship between filter coefficients and scaling and wavelet functions of Discrete Wavelet Transforms

In this paper, the relationship between the filter coefficients and the scaling and wavelet functions of the Discrete Wavelet Transform is presented and exemplified from a practical point-of-view. The explanations complement the wavelet theory, that is well documented in the literature, being important for researchers who work with this tool for time-frequency analysis. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Cariris Velhos tectonic event in Northeast Brazil

The Borborema Province in northeastern South America is a typical Brasiliano-Pan-African branching system of Neoproterozoic orogens that forms part of the Western Gondwana assembly. The province is positioned between the Sao Luis-West Africa craton to the north and the Sao Francisco (Congo-Kasai) craton to the south. For this province the main characteristics are (a) its subdivision into five major tectonic domains, bounded mostly by long shear zones, as follows: Medio Coreau, Ceara Central, Rio Grande do Norte, Transversal, and Southern; (b) the alternation of supracrustal belts with reworked basement inliers (Archean nuclei + Paleoproterozoic belts); and (c) the diversity of granitic plutonism, from Neoproterozoic to Early Cambrian ages, that affect supracrustal rocks as well as basement inliers. Recently, orogenic rock assemblages of early Tonian (1000-920 Ma) orogenic evolution have been recognized, which are restricted to the Transversal and Southern domains of the Province. Within the Transversal Zone, the Alto Pajeu terrane locally includes some remnants of oceanic crust along with island arc and continental arc rock assemblages, but the dominant supracrustal rocks are mature and immature pelitic metasedimentary and metavolcaniclastic rocks. Contiguous and parallel to the Alto Pajeu terrane, the Riacho Gravata subterrane consists mainly of low-grade metamorphic successions of metarhythmites, some of which are clearly turbiditic in origin, metaconglomerates, and sporadic marbles, along with interbedded metarhyolitic and metadacitic volcanic or metavolcaniclastic rocks. Both terrane and subterrane are cut by syn-contractional intrusive sheets of dominantly peraluminous high-K calc-alkaline, granititic to granodioritic metaplutonic rocks. The geochemical patterns of both supracrustal and intrusive rocks show similarities with associations of mature continental arc volcano-sedimentary sequences, but some subordinate intra-plate characteristics are also found. In both the Alto Pajeu and Riacho Gravata terranes, TIMS and SHRIMP U-Pb isotopic data from zircons from both metavolcanic and metaplutonic rocks yield ages between 1.0 and 0.92 Ga, which define the time span for an event of orogenic character, the Cariris Velhos event. Less extensive occurrences of rocks of Cariris Velhos age are recognized mainly in the southernmost domains of the Province, as for example in the Polo Redondo-Maranco terrane, where arc-affinity migmatite-granitic and meta-volcano-sedimentary rocks show U-Pb ages (SHRIMP data) around 0.98-0.97 Ga. For all these domains, Sm-Nd data exhibit Tom model ages between 1.9 and 1.1 Ga with corresponding slightly negative to slightly positive epsilon(Nd)(t) values. These domains, along with the Borborema Province as a whole, were significantly affected by tectonic and magmatic events of the Brasiliano Cycle (0.7-0.5 Ga), so that it is possible that there are some other early Tonian rock assemblages which were completely masked and hidden by these later Brasiliano events. Cariris Velhos processes are younger than the majority of orogenic systems at the end of Mesoproterozoic Era and beginning of Neoproterozoic throughout the world, e.g. Irumide belt, Kibaride belt and Namaqua-Natal belt, and considerably younger than those of the youngest orogenic process (Ottawan) in the Grenvillian System. Therefore, they were probably not associated with the proposed assembly of Rodinia. We suggest, instead, that Cariris Velhos magmatism and tectonism could have been related to a continental margin magmatic arc, with possible back-arc associations, and that this margin may have been a short-lived (<100 m.y.) leading edge of the newly assembled Rodinia supercontinent. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.