A probabilistic treatment of uncertainty in nonlinear dynamical systems

In this work, computationally efficient approximate methods are developed for analyzing uncertain dynamical systems. Uncertainties in both the excitation and the modeling are considered and examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the proposed approximations.

For nonlinear systems under uncertain excitation, methods are developed to approximate the stationary probability density function and statistical quantities of interest. The methods are based on approximating solutions to the Fokker-Planck equation for the system and differ from traditional methods in which approximate solutions to stochastic differential equations are found. The new methods require little computational effort and examples are presented for which the accuracy of the proposed approximations compare favorably to results obtained by existing methods. The most significant improvements are made in approximating quantities related to the extreme values of the response, such as expected outcrossing rates, which are crucial for evaluating the reliability of the system.

Laplace's method of asymptotic approximation is applied to approximate the probability integrals which arise when analyzing systems with modeling uncertainty. The asymptotic approximation reduces the problem of evaluating a multidimensional integral to solving a minimization problem and the results become asymptotically exact as the uncertainty in the modeling goes to zero. The method is found to provide good approximations for the moments and outcrossing rates for systems with uncertain parameters under stochastic excitation, even when there is a large amount of uncertainty in the parameters. The method is also applied to classical reliability integrals, providing approximations in both the transformed (independently, normally distributed) variables and the original variables. In the transformed variables, the asymptotic approximation yields a very simple formula for approximating the value of SORM integrals. In many cases, it may be computationally expensive to transform the variables, and an approximation is also developed in the original variables. Examples are presented illustrating the accuracy of the approximations and results are compared with existing approximations.

Studies in nuclear reactor dynamics : I. The accuracy of point kinetics. II. The effect of delayed neutrons on the spectrum of the group-diffusion operator

This thesis is a theoretical work on the space-time dynamic behavior of a nuclear reactor without feedback. Diffusion theory with G-energy groups is used.

In the first part the accuracy of the point kinetics (lumped-parameter description) model is examined. The fundamental approximation of this model is the splitting of the neutron density into a product of a known function of space and an unknown function of time; then the properties of the system can be averaged in space through the use of appropriate weighting functions; as a result a set of ordinary differential equations is obtained for the description of time behavior. It is clear that changes of the shape of the neutron-density distribution due to space-dependent perturbations are neglected. This results to an error in the eigenvalues and it is to this error that bounds are derived. This is done by using the method of weighted residuals to reduce the original eigenvalue problem to that of a real asymmetric matrix. Then Gershgorin-type theorems .are used to find discs in the complex plane in which the eigenvalues are contained. The radii of the discs depend on the perturbation in a simple manner.

In the second part the effect of delayed neutrons on the eigenvalues of the group-diffusion operator is examined. The delayed neutrons cause a shifting of the prompt-neutron eigenvalue s and the appearance of the delayed eigenvalues. Using a simple perturbation method this shifting is calculated and the delayed eigenvalues are predicted with good accuracy.

Análise de unidades de pré-purificação de ar por adsorção

Os principais constituintes do ar, nitrogênio, oxigênio e argônio, estão cada vez mais presentes nas indústrias, onde são empregados nos processos químicos, para o transporte de alimentos e processamento de resíduos. As duas principais tecnologias para a separação dos componentes do ar são a adsorção e a destilação criogênica. Entretanto, para ambos os processos é necessário que os contaminantes do ar, como o gás carbônico, o vapor dágua e hidrocarbonetos, sejam removidos para evitar problemas operacionais e de segurança. Desta forma, o presente trabalho trata do estudo do processo de pré-purificação de ar utilizando adsorção. Neste sistema a corrente de ar flui alternadamente entre dois leitos adsorvedores para produzir ar purificado continuamente. Mais especificamente, o foco da dissertação corresponde à investigação do comportamento de unidades de pré-purificação tipo PSA (pressure swing adsorption), onde a etapa de dessorção é realizada pela redução da pressão. A análise da unidade de pré-purificação parte da modelagem dos leitos de adsorção através de um sistema de equações diferenciais parciais de balanço de massa na corrente gasosa e no leito. Neste modelo, a relação de equilíbrio relativa à adsorção é descrita pela isoterma de Dubinin-Astakhov estendida para misturas multicomponentes. Para a simulação do modelo, as derivadas espaciais são discretizadas via diferenças finitas e o sistema de equações diferenciais ordinárias resultante é resolvido por um solver apropriado (método das linhas). Para a simulação da unidade em operação, este modelo é acoplado a um algoritmo de convergência relativo às quatro etapas do ciclo de operação: adsorção, despressurização, purga e dessorção. O algoritmo em questão deve garantir que as condições finais da última etapa são equivalentes às condições iniciais da primeira etapa (estado estacionário cíclico). Desta forma, a simulação foi implementada na forma de um código computacional baseado no ambiente de programação Scilab (Scilab 5.3.0, 2010), que é um programa de distribuição gratuita. Os algoritmos de simulação de cada etapa individual e do ciclo completo são finalmente utilizados para analisar o comportamento da unidade de pré-purificação, verificando como o seu desempenho é afetado por alterações nas variáveis de projeto ou operacionais. Por exemplo, foi investigado o sistema de carregamento do leito que mostrou que a configuração ideal do leito é de 50% de alumina seguido de 50% de zeólita. Variáveis do processo foram também analisadas, a pressão de adsorção, a vazão de alimentação e o tempo do ciclo de adsorção, mostrando que o aumento da vazão de alimentação leva a perda da especificação que pode ser retomada reduzindo-se o tempo do ciclo de adsorção. Mostrou-se também que uma pressão de adsorção maior leva a uma maior remoção de contaminantes.

体全息光栅透镜的设计和应用

设计了一种新型的体全息光栅透镜，在一块光学平板(体全息记录材料)内可以将输入光束产生横向传输并聚焦，或对输入光点产生横传的准直．它由一束平面波和一束球面波正交入射到光学平板上干涉形成的．研究了该体全息透镜的光栅间距变化情况，为设计和制备体全息光栅透镜及相关器件提供了理论依据．基于两光束耦合波理论，得到了该光栅透镜的耦合波方程，近似计算了该透镜的衍射效率及其达到高衍射效率时透镜的最佳尺寸．最后，讨论了该透镜在集成光学等领域中的应用．

Continuous stochastic processes

A general review of stochastic processes is given in the introduction; definitions, properties and a rough classification are presented together with the position and scope of the author's work as it fits into the general scheme.

The first section presents a brief summary of the pertinent analytical properties of continuous stochastic processes and their probability-theoretic foundations which are used in the sequel.

The remaining two sections (II and III), comprising the body of the work, are the author's contribution to the theory. It turns out that a very inclusive class of continuous stochastic processes are characterized by a fundamental partial differential equation and its adjoint (the Fokker-Planck equations). The coefficients appearing in those equations assimilate, in a most concise way, all the salient properties of the process, freed from boundary value considerations. The writer’s work consists in characterizing the processes through these coefficients without recourse to solving the partial differential equations.

First, a class of coefficients leading to a unique, continuous process is presented, and several facts are proven to show why this class is restricted. Then, in terms of the coefficients, the unconditional statistics are deduced, these being the mean, variance and covariance. The most general class of coefficients leading to the Gaussian distribution is deduced, and a complete characterization of these processes is presented. By specializing the coefficients, all the known stochastic processes may be readily studied, and some examples of these are presented; viz. the Einstein process, Bachelier process, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, etc. The calculations are effectively reduced down to ordinary first order differential equations, and in addition to giving a comprehensive characterization, the derivations are materially simplified over the solution to the original partial differential equations.

In the last section the properties of the integral process are presented. After an expository section on the definition, meaning, and importance of the integral process, a particular example is carried through starting from basic definition. This illustrates the fundamental properties, and an inherent paradox. Next the basic coefficients of the integral process are studied in terms of the original coefficients, and the integral process is uniquely characterized. It is shown that the integral process, with a slight modification, is a continuous Markoff process.

The elementary statistics of the integral process are deduced: means, variances, and covariances, in terms of the original coefficients. It is shown that an integral process is never temporally homogeneous in a non-degenerate process.

Finally, in terms of the original class of admissible coefficients, the statistics of the integral process are explicitly presented, and the integral process of all known continuous processes are specified.

Stochastic optimal control

H. J. Kushner has obtained the differential equation satisfied by the optimal feedback control law for a stochastic control system in which the plant dynamics and observations are perturbed by independent additive Gaussian white noise processes. However, the differentiation includes the first and second functional derivatives and, except for a restricted set of systems, is too complex to solve with present techniques.

This investigation studies the optimal control law for the open loop system and incorporates it in a sub-optimal feedback control law. This suboptimal control law's performance is at least as good as that of the optimal control function and satisfies a differential equation involving only the first functional derivative. The solution of this equation is equivalent to solving two two-point boundary valued integro-partial differential equations. An approximate solution has advantages over the conventional approximate solution of Kushner's equation.

As a result of this study, well known results of deterministic optimal control are deduced from the analysis of optimal open loop control.

Range of validity of the method of averaging

Sufficient conditions are derived for the validity of approximate periodic solutions of a class of second order ordinary nonlinear differential equations. An approximate solution is defined to be valid if an exact solution exists in a neighborhood of the approximation.

Two classes of validity criteria are developed. Existence is obtained using the contraction mapping principle in one case, and the Schauder-Leray fixed point theorem in the other. Both classes of validity criteria make use of symmetry properties of periodic functions, and both classes yield an upper bound on a norm of the difference between the approximate and exact solution. This bound is used in a procedure which establishes sufficient stability conditions for the approximated solution.

Application to a system with piecewise linear restoring force (bilinear system) reveals that the approximate solution obtained by the method of averaging is valid away from regions where the response exhibits vertical tangents. A narrow instability region is obtained near one-half the natural frequency of the equivalent linear system. Sufficient conditions for the validity of resonant solutions are also derived, and two term harmonic balance approximate solutions which exhibit ultraharmonic and subharmonic resonances are studied.

A theory of strong and weak scintillations with applications to astrophysics

The propagation of waves in an extended, irregular medium is studied under the "quasi-optics" and the "Markov random process" approximations. Under these assumptions, a Fokker-Planck equation satisfied by the characteristic functional of the random wave field is derived. A complete set of the moment equations with different transverse coordinates and different wavenumbers is then obtained from the characteristic functional. The derivation does not require Gaussian statistics of the random medium and the result can be applied to the time-dependent problem. We then solve the moment equations for the phase correlation function, angular broadening, temporal pulse smearing, intensity correlation function, and the probability distribution of the random waves. The necessary and sufficient conditions for strong scintillation are also given.

We also consider the problem of diffraction of waves by a random, phase-changing screen. The intensity correlation function is solved in the whole Fresnel diffraction region and the temporal pulse broadening function is derived rigorously from the wave equation.

The method of smooth perturbations is applied to interplanetary scintillations. We formulate and calculate the effects of the solar-wind velocity fluctuations on the observed intensity power spectrum and on the ratio of the observed "pattern" velocity and the true velocity of the solar wind in the three-dimensional spherical model. The r.m.s. solar-wind velocity fluctuations are found to be ~200 km/sec in the region about 20 solar radii from the Sun.

We then interpret the observed interstellar scintillation data using the theories derived under the Markov approximation, which are also valid for the strong scintillation. We find that the Kolmogorov power-law spectrum with an outer scale of 10 to 100 pc fits the scintillation data and that the ambient averaged electron density in the interstellar medium is about 0.025 cm^-3. It is also found that there exists a region of strong electron density fluctuation with thickness ~10 pc and mean electron density ~7 cm^-3 between the PSR 0833-45 pulsar and the earth.

Spectral density of first order Piecewise linear systems excited by white noise

The Fokker-Planck (FP) equation is used to develop a general method for finding the spectral density for a class of randomly excited first order systems. This class consists of systems satisfying stochastic differential equations of form ẋ + f(x) = m/Ʃ/j = 1 h_j(x)n_j(t) where f and the h_j are piecewise linear functions (not necessarily continuous), and the n_j are stationary Gaussian white noise. For such systems, it is shown how the Laplace-transformed FP equation can be solved for the transformed transition probability density. By manipulation of the FP equation and its adjoint, a formula is derived for the transformed autocorrelation function in terms of the transformed transition density. From this, the spectral density is readily obtained. The method generalizes that of Caughey and Dienes, J. Appl. Phys., 32.11.

This method is applied to 4 subclasses: (1) m = 1, h₁ = const. (forcing function excitation); (2) m = 1, h₁ = f (parametric excitation); (3) m = 2, h₁ = const., h₂ = f, n₁ and n₂ correlated; (4) the same, uncorrelated. Many special cases, especially in subclass (1), are worked through to obtain explicit formulas for the spectral density, most of which have not been obtained before. Some results are graphed.

Dealing with parametrically excited first order systems leads to two complications. There is some controversy concerning the form of the FP equation involved (see Gray and Caughey, J. Math. Phys., 44.3); and the conditions which apply at irregular points, where the second order coefficient of the FP equation vanishes, are not obvious but require use of the mathematical theory of diffusion processes developed by Feller and others. These points are discussed in the first chapter, relevant results from various sources being summarized and applied. Also discussed is the steady-state density (the limit of the transition density as t → ∞).

Theoretical investigation of turbulent boundary layer over a wavy surface

The important features of the two-dimensional incompressible turbulent flow over a wavy surface of wavelength comparable with the boundary layer thickness are analyzed.

A turbulent field method using model equation for turbulent shear stress similar to the scheme of Bradshaw, Ferriss and Atwell (1967) is employed with suitable modification to cover the viscous sublayer. The governing differential equations are linearized based on the small but finite amplitude to wavelength ratio. An orthogonal wavy coordinate system, accurate to the second order in the amplitude ratio, is adopted to avoid the severe restriction to the validity of linearization due to the large mean velocity gradient near the wall. Analytic solution up to the second order is obtained by using the method of matched-asymptotic-expansion based on the large Reynolds number and hence the small skin friction coefficient.

In the outer part of the layer, the perturbed flow is practically "inviscid." Solutions for the velocity, Reynolds stress and also the wall pressure distributions agree well with the experimental measurement. In the wall region where the perturbed Reynolds stress plays an important role in the process of momentum transport, only a qualitative agreement is obtained. The results also show that the nonlinear second-order effect is negligible for amplitude ratio of 0.03. The discrepancies in the detailed structure of the velocity, shear stress, and skin friction distributions near the wall suggest modifications to the model are required to describe the present problem.

Particle fluid mechanics in shear flows, acoustic waves, and shock waves

Three different categories of flow problems of a fluid containing small particles are being considered here. They are: (i) a fluid containing small, non-reacting particles (Parts I and II); (ii) a fluid containing reacting particles (Parts III and IV); and (iii) a fluid containing particles of two distinct sizes with collisions between two groups of particles (Part V).

Part I

A numerical solution is obtained for a fluid containing small particles flowing over an infinite disc rotating at a constant angular velocity. It is a boundary layer type flow, and the boundary layer thickness for the mixture is estimated. For large Reynolds number, the solution suggests the boundary layer approximation of a fluid-particle mixture by assuming W = W_p. The error introduced is consistent with the Prandtl’s boundary layer approximation. Outside the boundary layer, the flow field has to satisfy the “inviscid equation” in which the viscous stress terms are absent while the drag force between the particle cloud and the fluid is still important. Increase of particle concentration reduces the boundary layer thickness and the amount of mixture being transported outwardly is reduced. A new parameter, β = 1/Ω τ_v, is introduced which is also proportional to μ. The secondary flow of the particle cloud depends very much on β. For small values of β, the particle cloud velocity attains its maximum value on the surface of the disc, and for infinitely large values of β, both the radial and axial particle velocity components vanish on the surface of the disc.

Part II

The “inviscid” equation for a gas-particle mixture is linearized to describe the flow over a wavy wall. Corresponding to the Prandtl-Glauert equation for pure gas, a fourth order partial differential equation in terms of the velocity potential ϕ is obtained for the mixture. The solution is obtained for the flow over a periodic wavy wall. For equilibrium flows where λ_v and λ_T approach zero and frozen flows in which λ_v and λ_T become infinitely large, the flow problem is basically similar to that obtained by Ackeret for a pure gas. For finite values of λ_v and λ_T, all quantities except v are not in phase with the wavy wall. Thus the drag coefficient C_D is present even in the subsonic case, and similarly, all quantities decay exponentially for supersonic flows. The phase shift and the attenuation factor increase for increasing particle concentration.

Part III

Using the boundary layer approximation, the initial development of the combustion zone between the laminar mixing of two parallel streams of oxidizing agent and small, solid, combustible particles suspended in an inert gas is investigated. For the special case when the two streams are moving at the same speed, a Green’s function exists for the differential equations describing first order gas temperature and oxidizer concentration. Solutions in terms of error functions and exponential integrals are obtained. Reactions occur within a relatively thin region of the order of λ_D. Thus, it seems advantageous in the general study of two-dimensional laminar flame problems to introduce a chemical boundary layer of thickness λ_D within which reactions take place. Outside this chemical boundary layer, the flow field corresponds to the ordinary fluid dynamics without chemical reaction.

Part IV

The shock wave structure in a condensing medium of small liquid droplets suspended in a homogeneous gas-vapor mixture consists of the conventional compressive wave followed by a relaxation region in which the particle cloud and gas mixture attain momentum and thermal equilibrium. Immediately following the compressive wave, the partial pressure corresponding to the vapor concentration in the gas mixture is higher than the vapor pressure of the liquid droplets and condensation sets in. Farther downstream of the shock, evaporation appears when the particle temperature is raised by the hot surrounding gas mixture. The thickness of the condensation region depends very much on the latent heat. For relatively high latent heat, the condensation zone is small compared with Ʌ_D.

For solid particles suspended initially in an inert gas, the relaxation zone immediately following the compression wave consists of a region where the particle temperature is first being raised to its melting point. When the particles are totally melted as the particle temperature is further increased, evaporation of the particles also plays a role.

The equilibrium condition downstream of the shock can be calculated and is independent of the model of the particle-gas mixture interaction.

Part V

For a gas containing particles of two distinct sizes and satisfying certain conditions, momentum transfer due to collisions between the two groups of particles can be taken into consideration using the classical elastic spherical ball model. Both in the relatively simple problem of normal shock wave and the perturbation solutions for the nozzle flow, the transfer of momentum due to collisions which decreases the velocity difference between the two groups of particles is clearly demonstrated. The difference in temperature as compared with the collisionless case is quite negligible.

A nonlinear systems model for the control mechanism of free fatty acid-glucose metabolosm in normal humans

A mathematical model is proposed in this thesis for the control mechanism of free fatty acid-glucose metabolism in healthy individuals under resting conditions. The objective is to explain in a consistent manner some clinical laboratory observations such as glucose, insulin and free fatty acid responses to intravenous injection of glucose, insulin, etc. Responses up to only about two hours from the beginning of infusion are considered. The model is an extension of the one for glucose homeostasis proposed by Charette, Kadish and Sridhar (Modeling and Control Aspects of Glucose Homeostasis. Mathematical Biosciences, 1969). It is based upon a systems approach and agrees with the current theories of glucose and free fatty acid metabolism. The description is in terms of ordinary differential equations. Validation of the model is based on clinical laboratory data available at the present time. Finally procedures are suggested for systematically identifying the parameters associated with the free fatty acid portion of the model.

Surface effects in simple molecular systems

This thesis examines two problems concerned with surface effects in simple molecular systems. The first is the problem associated with the interaction of a fluid with a solid boundary, and the second originates from the interaction of a liquid with its own vapor.

For a fluid in contact with a solid wall, two sets of integro-differential equations, involving the molecular distribution functions of the system, are derived. One of these is a particular form of the well-known Bogolyubov-Born-Green-Kirkwood-Yvon equations. For the second set, the derivation, in contrast with the formulation of the B.B.G.K.Y. hierarchy, is independent of the pair-potential assumption. The density of the fluid, expressed as a power series in the uniform fluid density, is obtained by solving these equations under the requirement that the wall be ideal.

The liquid-vapor interface is analyzed with the aid of equations that describe the density and pair-correlation function. These equations are simplified and then solved by employing the superposition and the low vapor density approximations. The solutions are substituted into formulas for the surface energy and surface tension, and numerical results are obtained for selected systems. Finally, the liquid-vapor system near the critical point is examined by means of the lowest order B.B.G.K.Y. equation.

Modelagem e simulação da propagação de ondas em barras não homogêneas envolvendo materiais elásticos não lineares.

O objetivo deste trabalho é tratar da simulação do fenômeno de propagação de ondas em uma haste heterogênea elástico, composta por dois materiais distintos (um linear e um não-linear), cada um deles com a sua própria velocidade de propagação da onda. Na interface entre estes materiais existe uma descontinuidade, um choque estacionário, devido ao salto das propriedades físicas. Empregando uma abordagem na configuração de referência, um sistema não-linear hiperbólico de equações diferenciais parciais, cujas incógnitas são a velocidade e a deformação, descrevendo a resposta dinâmica da haste heterogénea. A solução analítica completa do problema de Riemann associado são apresentados e discutidos.

Desenvolvimento e avaliação de novas abordagens de modelagem de processos de separação em leito móvel simulado

O Leito Móvel Simulado (LMS) é um processo de separação de compostos por adsorção muito eficiente, por trabalhar em um regime contínuo e também possuir fluxo contracorrente da fase sólida. Dentre as diversas aplicações, este processo tem se destacado na resolução de petroquímicos e principalmente na atualidade na separação de misturas racêmicas que são separações de um grau elevado de dificuldade. Neste trabalho foram propostas duas novas abordagens na modelagem do LMS, a abordagem Stepwise e a abordagem Front Velocity. Na modelagem Stepwise as colunas cromatográficas do LMS foram modeladas com uma abordagem discreta, onde cada uma delas teve seu domínio dividido em N células de mistura interligadas em série, e as concentrações dos compostos nas fases líquida e sólida foram simuladas usando duas cinéticas de transferência de massa distintas. Essa abordagem pressupõe que as interações decorrentes da transferência de massa entre as moléculas do composto nas suas fases líquida e sólida ocorram somente na superfície, de forma que com essa suposição pode-se admitir que o volume ocupado por cada molécula nas fases sólida e líquida é o mesmo, o que implica que o fator de residência pode ser considerado igual a constante de equilíbrio. Para descrever a transferência de massa que ocorre no processo cromatográfico a abordagem Front Velocity estabelece que a convecção é a fase dominante no transporte de soluto ao longo da coluna cromatográfica. O Front Velocity é um modelo discreto (etapas) em que a vazão determina o avanço da fase líquida ao longo da coluna. As etapas são: avanço da fase líquida e posterior transporte de massa entre as fases líquida e sólida, este último no mesmo intervalo de tempo. Desta forma, o fluxo volumétrico experimental é utilizado para a discretização dos volumes de controle que se deslocam ao longo da coluna porosa com a mesma velocidade da fase líquida. A transferência de massa foi representada por dois mecanismos cinéticos distintos, sem (tipo linear) e com capacidade máxima de adsorção (tipo Langmuir). Ambas as abordagens propostas foram estudadas e avaliadas mediante a comparação com dados experimentais de separação em LMS do anestésico cetamina e, posteriormente, com o fármaco Verapamil. Também foram comparados com as simulações do modelo de equilíbrio dispersivo para o caso da Cetamina, usado por Santos (2004), e para o caso do Verapamil (Perna 2013). Na etapa de caracterização da coluna cromatográfica as novas abordagens foram associadas à ferramenta inversa R2W de forma a determinar os parâmetros globais de transferência de massa apenas usando os tempos experimentais de residência de cada enantiômero na coluna de cromatografia líquida de alta eficiência (CLAE). Na segunda etapa os modelos cinéticos desenvolvidos nas abordagens foram aplicados nas colunas do LMS com os valores determinados na caracterização da coluna cromatográfica, para a simulação do processo de separação contínua. Os resultados das simulações mostram boa concordância entre as duas abordagens propostas e os experimentos de pulso para a caracterização da coluna na separação enantiomérica da cetamina ao longo do tempo. As simulações da separação em LMS, tanto do Verapamil quando da Cetamina apresentam uma discrepância com os dados experimentais nos primeiros ciclos, entretanto após esses ciclos iniciais a correlação entre os dados experimentais e as simulações. Para o caso da separação da cetamina (Santos, 2004), a qual a concentração da alimentação era relativamente baixa, os modelos foram capazes de predizer o processo de separação com as cinéticas Linear e Langmuir. No caso da separação do Verapamil (Perna, 2013), onde a concentração da alimentação é relativamente alta, somente a cinética de Langmuir representou o processo, devido a cinética Linear não representar a saturação das colunas cromatográficas. De acordo como o estudo conduzido ambas as abordagens propostas mostraram-se ferramentas com potencial na predição do comportamento cromatográfico de uma amostra em um experimento de pulso, assim como na simulação da separação de um composto no LMS, apesar das pequenas discrepâncias apresentadas nos primeiros ciclos de trabalho do LMS. Além disso, podem ser facilmente implementadas e aplicadas na análise do processo, pois requer um baixo número de parâmetros e são constituídas de equações diferenciais ordinárias.