Submission : Proposed reforms to youth justice in Queensland

The proposed reforms to the youth justice system in Queensland are premised on the assumption that offending by young people is increasing. We noted (Carrington, Dwyer, Hutchinson and Richards 2012, 8) in a recent submission about the boot camps legislation that: "Statistics suggest that this concern is not warranted. Certainly studies show that ‘rates per 100,000 juveniles in detention in Queensland have been relatively stable compared with the national trend’ (Richards 2011) and that rates of detention of child offenders have declined generally in Australia over the last three decades. Youth offending statistics are affected by the diversion options used by the police, as well as by the numbers and levels of policing, and any special strategies such as Operation Colossus in the northern part of the state. ‘Community concern’ about crime does not always reflect the true rates of crime across Queensland. Policy should be based on valid evidence, not on ‘community concern’. With stable numbers of young people being detained in Australia, the research clearly suggests that youth offending is not escalating."...

Plasmodium vivax malaria incidence over time and its association with temperature and rainfall in four counties of Yunnan Province, China

Background Transmission of Plasmodium vivax malaria is dependent on vector availability, biting rates and parasite development. In turn, each of these is influenced by climatic conditions. Correlations have previously been detected between seasonal rainfall, temperature and malaria incidence patterns in various settings. An understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria, and their weather drivers, can provide vital information for control and elimination activities. This research aimed to describe temporal patterns in malaria, rainfall and temperature, and to examine the relationships between these variables within four counties of Yunnan Province, China. Methods Plasmodium vivax malaria surveillance data (1991–2006), and average monthly temperature and rainfall were acquired. Seasonal trend decomposition was used to examine secular trends and seasonal patterns in malaria. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to estimate the weather drivers of malaria seasonality, including the lag periods between weather conditions and malaria incidence. Results There was a declining trend in malaria incidence in all four counties. Increasing temperature resulted in increased malaria risk in all four areas and increasing rainfall resulted in increased malaria risk in one area and decreased malaria risk in one area. The lag times for these associations varied between areas. Conclusions The differences detected between the four counties highlight the need for local understanding of seasonal patterns of malaria and its climatic drivers.

A comparison of methods to identify alcohol involvement in youth injury-related emergency department presentation data

Aims: To compare different methods for identifying alcohol involvement in injury-related emergency department presentation in Queensland youth, and to explore the alcohol terminology used in triage text. Methods: Emergency Department Information System data were provided for patients aged 12-24 years with an injury-related diagnosis code for a 5 year period 2006-2010 presenting to a Queensland emergency department (N=348895). Three approaches were used to estimate alcohol involvement: 1) analysis of coded data, 2) mining of triage text, and 3) estimation using an adaptation of alcohol attributable fractions (AAF). Cases were identified as ‘alcohol-involved’ by code and text, as well as AAF weighted. Results: Around 6.4% of these injury presentations overall had some documentation of alcohol involvement, with higher proportions of alcohol involvement documented for 18-24 year olds, females, indigenous youth, where presentations occurred on a Saturday or Sunday, and where presentations occurred between midnight and 5am. The most common alcohol terms identified for all subgroups were generic alcohol terms (eg. ETOH or alcohol) with almost half of the cases where alcohol involvement was documented having a generic alcohol term recorded in the triage text. Conclusions: Emergency department data is a useful source of information for identification of high risk sub-groups to target intervention opportunities, though it is not a reliable source of data for incidence or trend estimation in its current unstandardised form. Improving the accuracy and consistency of identification, documenting and coding of alcohol-involvement at the point of data capture in the emergency department is the most desirable long term approach to produce a more solid evidence base to support policy and practice in this field.

Consumer perceptions of medication warnings about driving : a comparison of French and Australian labels

OBJECTIVE Little research has examined user perceptions of medication warnings about driving. Consumer perceptions of the Australian national approach to medication warnings about driving are examined. The Australian approach to warning presentation is compared with an alternative approach used in France. Visual characteristics of the warnings and overall warning readability are investigated. Risk perceptions and behavioral intentions associated with the warnings are also examined. METHOD Surveys were conducted with 358 public hospital outpatients in Queensland, Australia. Extending this investigation is a supplementary comparison study of French hospital outpatients (n = 75). RESULTS The results suggest that the Australian warning approach of using a combination of visual characteristics is important for consumers but that the use of a pictogram could enhance effects. Significantly higher levels of risk perception were found among the sample for the French highest severity label compared to the analogous mandatory Australian warning, with a similar trend evident in the French study results. The results also indicated that the French label was associated with more cautious behavioral intentions. CONCLUSION The results are potentially important for the Australian approach to medication warnings about driving impairment. The research contributes practical findings that can be used to enhance the effectiveness of warnings and develop countermeasures in this area. Hospital pharmacy patients should include persons with the highest level of likelihood of knowledge and awareness of medication warning labeling. Even in this context it appears that a review of the Australian warning system would be useful particularly in the context of increasing evidence relating to associated driving risks. Reviewing text size and readability of messages including the addition of pictograms, as well as clarifying the importance of potential risk in a general community context, is recommended for consideration and further research.

Spatiotemporal patterns of Japanese Encephalitis in China, 2002–2010

OBJECTIVE The aim of the study is to examine the spatiotemporal pattern of Japanese Encephalitis (JE) in mainland China during 2002-2010. Specific objectives of the study were to quantify the temporal variation in incidence of JE cases, to determine if clustering of JE cases exists, to detect high risk spatiotemporal clusters of JE cases and to provide evidence-based preventive suggestions to relevant stakeholders. METHODS Monthly JE cases at the county level in mainland China during 2002-2010 were obtained from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention (CISDCP). For the purpose of the analysis, JE case counts for nine years were aggregated into four temporal periods (2002; 2003-2005; 2006; and 2007-2010). Local Indicators of Spatial Association and spatial scan statistics were performed to detect and evaluate local high risk space-time clusters. RESULTS JE incidence showed a decreasing trend from 2002 to 2005 but peaked in 2006, then fluctuated over the study period. Spatial cluster analysis detected high value clusters, mainly located in Southwestern China. Similarly, we identified a primary spatiotemporal cluster of JE in Southwestern China between July and August, with the geographical range of JE transmission increasing over the past years. CONCLUSION JE in China is geographically clustered and its spatial extent dynamically changed during the last nine years in mainland China. This indicates that risk factors for JE infection are likely to be spatially heterogeneous. The results may assist national and local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better preventive strategy and increase the effectiveness of public health interventions against JE transmission.

Managing health risks of extreme weather events : need for a systematic approach

The Climate Commission recently outlined the trend of major extreme weather events in different regions of Australia, including heatwaves, floods, droughts, bushfires, cyclones and storms. These events already impose an enormous health and financial burden onto society and are projected to occur more frequently and intensely. Unless we act now, further financial losses and increasing health burdens seem inevitable. We seek to highlight the major areas for interdisciplinary investigation, identify barriers and formulate response strategies.

Determinants of the frequency of contact lens wear

Objectives To characterize and discover the determinants of the frequency of wear (FOW) of contact lenses. Methods Survey forms were sent to contact lens fitters in up to 40 countries between January and March every year for 5 consecutive years (2007–2011). Practitioners were asked to record data relating to the first 10 contact lens fits or refits performed after receiving the survey form. Only data for daily wear lens fits were analyzed. Results Data were collected in relation to 74,510 and 9,014 soft and rigid lens fits, respectively. Overall, FOW was 5.9±1.7 days per week (DPW). When considering the proportion of lenses worn between one to seven DPW, the distribution for rigid lenses is skewed toward full-time wear (7 DPW), whereas the distribution for soft daily disposable lenses is perhaps bimodal, with large and small peaks at seven and two DPW, respectively. There is a significant variation in FOW among nations (P<0.0001), ranging from 6.8±1.0 DPW in Greece to 5.1±2.5 DPW in Kuwait. For soft lenses, FOW increases with decreasing age. Females (6.0±1.6 DPW) wear lenses more frequently than males (5.8±1.7 DPW) (P=0.0002). FOW is greater among those wearing presbyopic corrections (6.1±1.4 DPW) compared with spherical (5.9±1.7 DPW) and toric (5.9±1.6 DPW) designs (P<0.0001). FOW with hydrogel peroxide systems (6.4±1.1 DPW) was greater than that with multipurpose systems (6.2±1.3 DPW) (P<0.0001). Conclusions Numerous demographic and contact lens–related factors impact FOW. There may be a future trend toward a lower FOW associated with the increasing popularity of daily disposable lenses.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dispersion of dengue fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

INTRODUCTION Dengue fever (DF) in Vietnam remains a serious emerging arboviral disease, which generates significant concerns among international health authorities. Incidence rates of DF have increased significantly during the last few years in many provinces and cities, especially Hanoi. The purpose of this study was to detect DF hot spots and identify the disease dynamics dispersion of DF over the period between 2004 and 2009 in Hanoi, Vietnam. METHODS Daily data on DF cases and population data for each postcode area of Hanoi between January 1998 and December 2009 were obtained from the Hanoi Center for Preventive Health and the General Statistic Office of Vietnam. Moran's I statistic was used to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported DF. Spatial scan statistics and logistic regression were used to identify space-time clusters and dispersion of DF. RESULTS The study revealed a clear trend of geographic expansion of DF transmission in Hanoi through the study periods (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.02-1.34). The spatial scan statistics showed that 6/14 (42.9%) districts in Hanoi had significant cluster patterns, which lasted 29 days and were limited to a radius of 1,000 m. The study also demonstrated that most DF cases occurred between June and November, during which the rainfall and temperatures are highest. CONCLUSIONS There is evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of DF in Hanoi, and that the geographical distribution of DF has expanded over recent years. This finding provides a foundation for further investigation into the social and environmental factors responsible for changing disease patterns, and provides data to inform program planning for DF control.

The science of compliance

A survey conducted in Australia and the Asian region of the way in which contact lens wearers use and maintain their lenses reveals disturbingly low levels of compliance with recommended practice. Key problem areas are identified, and a plea is made for practitioners to help reverse this trend.

Progesterone activates multiple innate immune pathways inChlamydia trachomatis-Infected endocervical cells

Problem Susceptibility to Chlamydia trachomatis infection is increased by oral con- traceptives and modulated by sex hormones. We therefore sought to determine the effects of female sex hormones on the innate immune response to C. trachomatis infection. Method of study ECC-1 endometrial cells, pre-treated with oestradiol or progesterone, were infected with C. trachomatis and the host transcriptome analysed by Illumina Sentrix HumanRef-8 microarray. Primary endocervical epithe- lial cells, prepared at either the proliferative or secretory phase of the menstrual cycle, were infected with C. trachomatis and cytokine gene expression determined by quantitative RT-PCR analysis. Results Chlamydia trachomatis yield from progesterone-primed ECC-1 cells was significantly reduced compared with oestradiol-treated cells. Genes upregulated in progesterone-treated and Chlamydia-infected cells only included multiple CC and CXC chemokines, IL-17C, IL-29, IL-32, TNF-a, DEFB4B, LCN2, S100A7-9, ITGAM, NOD2, JAK1, IL-6ST, type I and II interferon receptors, numerous interferon-stimulated genes and STAT6. CXCL10, CXCL11, CX3CL1 and IL-17C, which were also upregu- lated in infected secretory-stage primary cells, and there was a trend towards higher levels of immune mediators in infected secretory-phase compared with proliferative-phase cells. Conclusion Progesterone treatment primes multiple innate immune pathways in hormone-responsive epithelial cells that could potentially increase resis- tance to chlamydial infection.

Bonding and bridging : transition to school and social capital formation among a community of Indigenous Australian children

This study reports on an intervention program designed to facilitate transition to school of a whole community of Indigenous Australian children who had previously not been attending. The children were from families displaced from their traditional lands and experienced on-going social marginalisation and transience. A social capital framework was employed to track change in the children’s social inclusion and family-school engagement for two years, from school entry. Sociometric measurement and interview techniques were applied to assess the children’s social connectedness and peer relationship quality. Using these data, analyses examined whether bonding within the group supported or inhibited formation of new social relationships. Although transience disrupted attendance, there was a group trend towards increased social inclusion with some evidence that group bonds supported bridging to new social relationships. Change in family-school engagement was tracked using multi-informant interviews. Limited engagement between school and families presented an on-going challenge to sustained educational engagement.

Exploring retinal markers of diabetic neuropathy

Purpose To investigate the application of retinal nerve fibre layer (RNFL) thickness as a marker for severity of diabetic peripheral neuropathy (DPN) in people with Type 2 diabetes. Methods This was a cross-sectional study whereby 61 participants (mean age 61 [41-75 years], mean duration of diabetes 14 [1-40 years], 70% male) with Type 2 diabetes and DPN underwent optical coherence tomography (OCT) scans. Global and 4 quadrant (TSNI) RNFL thicknesses were measured at 3.45mm around the optic nerve head of one eye. Neuropathy disability score (NDS) was used to assess the severity of DPN on a 0 to 10 scale. Participants were divided into three age-matched groups representing mild (NDS=3-5), moderate (NDS=6-8) and severe (NDS=9-10) neuropathy. Two regression models were fitted for statistical analysis: 1) NDS scores as co-variate for global and quadrant RNFL thicknesses, 2) NDS groups as a factor for global RNFL thickness only. Results Mean (SD) RNFL thickness (µm) was 103(9) for mild neuropathy (n=34), 101(10) for moderate neuropathy (n=16) and 95(13) in the group with severe neuropathy (n=11). Global RNFL thickness and NDS scores were statistically significantly related (b=-1.20, p=0.048). When neuropathy was assessed across groups, a trend of thinner mean RNFL thickness was observed with increasing severity of neuropathy; however, this result was not statistically significant (F=2.86, p=0.065). TSNI quadrant analysis showed that mean RNFL thickness reduction in the inferior quadrant was 2.55 µm per 1 unit increase in NDS score (p=0.005). However, the regression coefficients were not statistically significant for RNFL thickness in the superior (b=-1.0, p=0.271), temporal (b=-0.90, p=0.238) and nasal (b=-0.99, p=0.205) quadrants. Conclusions RNFL thickness was reduced with increasing severity of DPN and the effect was most evident in the inferior quadrant. Measuring RNFL thickness using OCT may prove to be a useful, non-invasive technique for identifying severity of DPN and may also provide additional insight into common mechanisms for peripheral neuropathy and RNFL damage.

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955–2004

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. CONCLUSIONS: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.

E-motion diaries : blogging emotional responses to online learning in higher education

Emotions are inherently social, and are central to learning, online interaction and literacy practices (Shen, Wang, & Shen, 2009). Demonstrating the dynamic sociality of literacy practice, we used e-motion diaries or web logs to explore the emotional states of pre-service high school teachers’ experiences of online learning activities. This is because the methods of communication used by university educators in online learning and writing environments play an important role in fulfilling students’ need for social interaction and inclusion (McInnerney & Roberts, 2004). Feelings of isolation and frustration are common emotions experienced by students in many online learning environments, and are associated with the success or failure of online interactions and learning (Su, et al., 2005). The purpose of the study was to answer the research question: What are the trajectories of pre-service teachers’ emotional states during online learning experiences? This is important because emotions are central to learning, and the current trend toward Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) needs research about students’ emotional connections in online learning environments (Kop, 2011). The project was conducted with a graduate class of 64 high school science pre-service teachers in Science Education Curriculum Studies in a large Australian university, including males and females from a variety of cultural backgrounds, aged 22-55 years. Online activities involved the students watching a series of streamed live lectures for the first 5 weeks providing a varied set of learning experiences, such as viewing science demonstrations (e.g., modeling the use of discrepant events). Each week, students provided feedback on learning by writing and posting an e-motion diary or web log about their emotional response. Students answered the question: What emotions did you experience during this learning experience? The descriptive data set included 284 online posts, with students contributing multiple entries. Linguistic appraisal theory, following Martin and White (2005), was used to regroup the 22 different discrete emotions reported by students into the six main affect groups – three positive and three negative: unhappiness/happiness, insecurity/security, and dissatisfaction/satisfaction. The findings demonstrated that the pre-service teachers’ emotional responses to the streamed lectures tended towards happiness, security, and satisfaction within the typology of affect groups – un/happiness, in/security, and dis/satisfaction. Fewer students reported that the streamed lectures triggered negative feelings of frustration, powerlessness, and inadequacy, and when this occurred, it often pertained to expectations of themselves in the forthcoming field experience in classrooms. Exceptions to this pattern of responses occurred in relation to the fifth streamed lecture presented in a non-interactive slideshow format that compressed a large amount of content. Many students responded to the content of the lecture rather than providing their emotional responses to this lecture, and one student felt “completely disengaged”. The social practice of online writing as blogs enabled the students to articulate their emotions. The findings primarily contribute new understanding about students' wide range of differing emotional states, both positive and negative, experienced in response to streamed live lectures and other learning activities in higher education external coursework. The is important because the majority of previous studies have focused on particular negative emotions, such as anxiety in test taking. The research also highlights the potentials of appraisal theory for studying human emotions in online learning and writing.