Stops and bonanzas in the EU: Does being part of the Euro Area make a difference?

In this paper, we investigate whether being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza of capital flows. Our sample period is from 1995 until 2014. We identify these two phenomena and we evaluate which push and pull factors help predict the conditional probability of experiencing one of them. We find that most countries had significant capital inflows until 2008 and that there were more sudden stops during the recent financial crisis than in any other moment in our sample. The factors that better help forecast the conditional probability of a sudden stop are global uncertainty (represented by the push factor “Volatility Index”), and the domestic economic activity (pull factors “GDP growth” and “consumer confidence”). An indicator of country risk (pull factor “change in credit rating”) is the most significant one for predicting bonanzas. Ultimately, we find no evidence that being part of the euro area influences the conditional probability of going through a sudden stop or a bonanza.

Contraexemplos e raciocínio dedutivo

Tese de Doutoramento apresentada ao ISPA - Instituto Universitário

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Loss of Cutaneous TSLP-Dependent Immune Responses Skews the Balance of Inflammation from Tumor Protective to Tumor Promoting.

Inflammation can promote or inhibit cancer progression. In this study we have addressed the role of the proinflammatory cytokine thymic stromal lymphopoietin (TSLP) during skin carcinogenesis. Using conditional loss- and gain-of-function mouse models for Notch and Wnt signaling, respectively, we demonstrate that TSLP-mediated inflammation protects against cutaneous carcinogenesis by acting directly on CD4 and CD8 T cells. Genetic ablation of TSLP receptor (TSLPR) perturbs T-cell-mediated protection and results in the accumulation of CD11b(+)Gr1(+) myeloid cells. These promote tumor growth by secreting Wnt ligands and augmenting β-catenin signaling in the neighboring epithelium. Epithelial specific ablation of β-catenin prevents both carcinogenesis and the accumulation of CD11b(+)Gr1(+) myeloid cells, suggesting tumor cells initiate a feed-forward loop that induces protumorigenic inflammation.

Quantifying consistency of Event Related Potentials across subjects based on single-trial topographic analysis

Introduction: Non-invasive brain imaging techniques often contrast experimental conditions across a cohort of participants, obfuscating distinctions in individual performance and brain mechanisms that are better characterised by the inter-trial variability. To overcome such limitations, we developed topographic analysis methods for single-trial EEG data [1]. So far this was typically based on time-frequency analysis of single-electrode data or single independent components. The method's efficacy is demonstrated for event-related responses to environmental sounds, hitherto studied at an average event-related potential (ERP) level. Methods: Nine healthy subjects participated to the experiment. Auditory meaningful sounds of common objects were used for a target detection task [2]. On each block, subjects were asked to discriminate target sounds, which were living or man-made auditory objects. Continuous 64-channel EEG was acquired during the task. Two datasets were considered for each subject including single-trial of the two conditions, living and man-made. The analysis comprised two steps. In the first part, a mixture of Gaussians analysis [3] provided representative topographies for each subject. In the second step, conditional probabilities for each Gaussian provided statistical inference on the structure of these topographies across trials, time, and experimental conditions. Similar analysis was conducted at group-level. Results: Results show that the occurrence of each map is structured in time and consistent across trials both at the single-subject and at group level. Conducting separate analyses of ERPs at single-subject and group levels, we could quantify the consistency of identified topographies and their time course of activation within and across participants as well as experimental conditions. A general agreement was found with previous analysis at average ERP level. Conclusions: This novel approach to single-trial analysis promises to have impact on several domains. In clinical research, it gives the possibility to statistically evaluate single-subject data, an essential tool for analysing patients with specific deficits and impairments and their deviation from normative standards. In cognitive neuroscience, it provides a novel tool for understanding behaviour and brain activity interdependencies at both single-subject and at group levels. In basic neurophysiology, it provides a new representation of ERPs and promises to cast light on the mechanisms of its generation and inter-individual variability.

Cold fission: splitting the pombe cell at room temperature.

The mechanisms responsible for cytokinesis and its coordination with other events of the cell cycle are poorly understood. Genetic studies of cytokinesis in fission yeast are one useful approach to this problem. A number of conditional mutants of fission yeast that show defects in the formation of the septum of cytokinesis have been identified. Cloning of the genes affected in these mutants has begun to shed light upon the elements required to direct the construction of the division septum and also upon how the initiation of septum formation may be coordinated with mitosis.

Representation of motor habit in a sequence of repetitive reach and grasp movements performed by macaque monkeys: evidence for a contribution of the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.

In the context of an autologous cell transplantation study, a unilateral biopsy of cortical tissue was surgically performed from the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (dlPFC) in two intact adult macaque monkeys (dlPFC lesioned group), together with the implantation of a chronic chamber providing access to the left motor cortex. Three other monkeys were subjected to the same chronic chamber implantation, but without dlPFC biopsy (control group). All monkeys were initially trained to perform sequential manual dexterity tasks, requiring precision grip. The motor performance and the prehension's sequence (temporal order to grasp pellets from different spatial locations) were analysed for each hand. Following the surgery, transient and moderate deficits of manual dexterity per se occurred in both groups, indicating that they were not due to the dlPFC lesion (most likely related to the recording chamber implantation and/or general anaesthesia/medication). In contrast, changes of motor habit were observed for the sequential order of grasping in the two monkeys with dlPFC lesion only. The changes were more prominent in the monkey subjected to the largest lesion, supporting the notion of a specific effect of the dlPFC lesion on the motor habit of the monkeys. These observations are reminiscent of previous studies using conditional tasks with delay that have proposed a specialization of the dlPFC for visuo-spatial working memory, except that this is in a different context of "free-will", non-conditional manual dexterity task, without a component of working memory.

Renal tubular NEDD4-2 deficiency causes NCC-mediated salt-dependent hypertension.

The E3 ubiquitin ligase NEDD4-2 (encoded by the Nedd4L gene) regulates the amiloride-sensitive epithelial Na+ channel (ENaC/SCNN1) to mediate Na+ homeostasis. Mutations in the human β/γENaC subunits that block NEDD4-2 binding or constitutive ablation of exons 6-8 of Nedd4L in mice both result in salt-sensitive hypertension and elevated ENaC activity (Liddle syndrome). To determine the role of renal tubular NEDD4-2 in adult mice, we generated tetracycline-inducible, nephron-specific Nedd4L KO mice. Under standard and high-Na+ diets, conditional KO mice displayed decreased plasma aldosterone but normal Na+/K+ balance. Under a high-Na+ diet, KO mice exhibited hypercalciuria and increased blood pressure, which were reversed by thiazide treatment. Protein expression of βENaC, γENaC, the renal outer medullary K+ channel (ROMK), and total and phosphorylated thiazide-sensitive Na+Cl- cotransporter (NCC) levels were increased in KO kidneys. Unexpectedly, Scnn1a mRNA, which encodes the αENaC subunit, was reduced and proteolytic cleavage of αENaC decreased. Taken together, these results demonstrate that loss of NEDD4-2 in adult renal tubules causes a new form of mild, salt-sensitive hypertension without hyperkalemia that is characterized by upregulation of NCC, elevation of β/γENaC, but not αENaC, and a normal Na+/K+ balance maintained by downregulation of ENaC activity and upregulation of ROMK.

ENaC-mediated alveolar fluid clearance and lung fluid balance depend on the channel-activating protease 1.

Sodium transport via epithelial sodium channels (ENaC) expressed in alveolar epithelial cells (AEC) provides the driving force for removal of fluid from the alveolar space. The membrane-bound channel-activating protease 1 (CAP1/Prss8) activates ENaC in vitro in various expression systems. To study the role of CAP1/Prss8 in alveolar sodium transport and lung fluid balance in vivo, we generated mice lacking CAP1/Prss8 in the alveolar epithelium using conditional Cre-loxP-mediated recombination. Deficiency of CAP1/Prss8 in AEC induced in vitro a 40% decrease in ENaC-mediated sodium currents. Sodium-driven alveolar fluid clearance (AFC) was reduced in CAP1/Prss8-deficient mice, due to a 48% decrease in amiloride-sensitive clearance, and was less sensitive to beta(2)-agonist treatment. Intra-alveolar treatment with neutrophil elastase, a soluble serine protease activating ENaC at the cell surface, fully restored basal AFC and the stimulation by beta(2)-agonists. Finally, acute volume-overload increased alveolar lining fluid volume in CAP1/Prss8-deficient mice. This study reveals that CAP1 plays a crucial role in the regulation of ENaC-mediated alveolar sodium and water transport and in mouse lung fluid balance.

Spatial relational learning and memory abilities do not differ between men and women in a real-world, open-field environment

This study assesses gender differences in spatial and non-spatial relational learning and memory in adult humans behaving freely in a real-world, open-field environment. In Experiment 1, we tested the use of proximal landmarks as conditional cues allowing subjects to predict the location of rewards hidden in one of two sets of three distinct locations. Subjects were tested in two different conditions: (1) when local visual cues marked the potentially-rewarded locations, and (2) when no local visual cues marked the potentially-rewarded locations. We found that only 17 of 20 adults (8 males, 9 females) used the proximal landmarks to predict the locations of the rewards. Although females exhibited higher exploratory behavior at the beginning of testing, males and females discriminated the potentially-rewarded locations similarly when local visual cues were present. Interestingly, when the spatial and local information conflicted in predicting the reward locations, males considered both spatial and local information, whereas females ignored the spatial information. However, in the absence of local visual cues females discriminated the potentially-rewarded locations as well as males. In Experiment 2, subjects (9 males, 9 females) were tested with three asymmetrically-arranged rewarded locations, which were marked by local cues on alternate trials. Again, females discriminated the rewarded locations as well as males in the presence or absence of local cues. In sum, although particular aspects of task performance might differ between genders, we found no evidence that women have poorer allocentric spatial relational learning and memory abilities than men in a real-world, open-field environment.

Hematopoietic stem cell function and survival depend on c-Myc and N-Myc activity.

Myc activity is emerging as a key element in acquisition and maintenance of stem cell properties. We have previously shown that c-Myc deficiency results in accumulation of defective hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) due to niche-dependent differentiation defects. Here we report that immature HSCs coexpress c-myc and N-myc mRNA at similar levels. Although conditional deletion of N-myc in the bone marrow does not affect hematopoiesis, combined deficiency of c-Myc and N-Myc (dKO) results in pancytopenia and rapid lethality. Interestingly, proliferation of HSCs depends on both myc genes during homeostasis, but is c-Myc/N-Myc independent during bone marrow repair after injury. Strikingly, while most dKO hematopoietic cells undergo apoptosis, only self-renewing HSCs accumulate the cytotoxic molecule Granzyme B, normally employed by the innate immune system, thereby revealing an unexpected mechanism of stem cell apoptosis. Collectively, Myc activity (c-Myc and N-Myc) controls crucial aspects of HSC function including proliferation, differentiation, and survival.

Meta-analysis and imputation refines the association of 15q25 with smoking quantity.

Smoking is a leading global cause of disease and mortality. We established the Oxford-GlaxoSmithKline study (Ox-GSK) to perform a genome-wide meta-analysis of SNP association with smoking-related behavioral traits. Our final data set included 41,150 individuals drawn from 20 disease, population and control cohorts. Our analysis confirmed an effect on smoking quantity at a locus on 15q25 (P = 9.45 x 10(-19)) that includes CHRNA5, CHRNA3 and CHRNB4, three genes encoding neuronal nicotinic acetylcholine receptor subunits. We used data from the 1000 Genomes project to investigate the region using imputation, which allowed for analysis of virtually all common SNPs in the region and offered a fivefold increase in marker density over HapMap2 (ref. 2) as an imputation reference panel. Our fine-mapping approach identified a SNP showing the highest significance, rs55853698, located within the promoter region of CHRNA5. Conditional analysis also identified a secondary locus (rs6495308) in CHRNA3.

The quality of the mother-child relationship during collaborative problem solving /

The quality of the mother-child relationship was examined in relation to joint planning, maternal teaching strategies, maternal emotional support, mutual positive affect and attachment security. Fifty-five grade five children and their mothers participated in a laboratory session comprised of various activities and completed questionnaires to evaluate attachment security. Joint planning and social problem solving were assessed observationally during an origami task. Problem solving effectiveness was unrelated to maternal teaching strategies, maternal encouragement and mutual positive affect. A marginally significant relationship was found between maternal encouragement and active child participation. Attachment security was found to be significantly related to sharing of responsibility during local planning, but only for child autonomous performance. An examination of conditional probabilities revealed that mutual positive affect did not increase the likelihood of subsequent mother-child dyadic regulation. However, mutual positive affect was found to be significantly related to both active child participation and dyadic regulation. The hypothesis predicting a mediational model was not supported. The implications of these findings in the theoretical and empirical literature were considered and suggestions for future research were made.

Effectiveness of instructional strategies based on schema theory on attention deficit disorder children

A review of the literature reveals that there are a number of children in the educational system who are characterized by Attention Deficit Disorder. Further review of the literature reveals that there are information processing programs which have had some success in increasing the learning of these children. Currently, an information processing program which is based on schema theory is being implemented in Lincoln County. Since schema theory based programs build structural, conditional, factual, and procedural schemata which assist the learner in attending to salient factors, learning should be increased. Thirty-four children were selected from a random sampling of Grade Seven classes in Lincoln County. Seventeen of these children were identified by the researcher and classroom teacher as being characterized by Attention Deficit Disorder. From the remaining population, 17 children who were not characterized by Attention Deficit Disorder were randomly selected. The data collected were compared using independent t-tests, paired t-tests, and correlation analysis. Significant differences were found in all cases. The Non-Attention Deficit Disorder children scored significantly higher on all the tests but the Attention Defici t Disorder children had a significantly higher ratio of gain between the pretests and posttests.

Individual differences and factors affecting male behaviour in field crickets

Individual differences in male sexual behav~our and the factors influencing calling behaviour were studied in the field crickets Gryllus 2 integer and Q. veletis. In a large (13m) outdoor arena individually numbered adult male ~~ integer started calling at three to five days of age but thereafter the age of individual G. integer males did not affect nightly calling duration. Calling also did not correlate with individual weight. In this study individual male calling was continuously distributed from 0 hrs. per night to 3.5 hrs. per night, on average. A temporal effect on the number of G. integer males calling was observed. The number of males calling through the night was uniform, but a sharp increase in the number calling was observed in the early morning. No difference in calling times was observed between the night and dawn callers. AlsC)' males calling at dawn usually didnotc'all during the preceeding night. Calling and reproductive success in 1979 demonstrated a negative logarithmic relationship while in the 1980(initial) population a negative linear relationship was observed. No relationship was seen in the 1980 high density population. The ratio of non-callers to callers also affected the mating of individuals in the 1979 and1980(initial) densities:-non~callers (males calling .5 hrs. per night, on average, or less) obtained more females when the population contained a high number of callers, this being a negative logarithmic relationship to, No such relationship was observed in the 1980 high density population. Individual displacement varied nightly and was not correlated to amount of calling or reproductive success of individual G. integer males. G. integer males were displa~ed more when in a higher density in the outdoor arena Male G. integer and G. veletis behaviours were also observed in an indoor arena at different densities and, in G. veletis, with respect to female presence. When females were present in the arena, in G. veletis, male calling was reduced. Males of both species called less, on average, when in ~ higher density, than when they were in a lower density. Male displacement of both species increased on average when in a higher density as compared to displacement in a lower density. Aggression was measured by aggressive call-ing and fighting and was studied in regards to density.G. integer demonstrated less aggression in all but one comparison at higher density. No difference was observed in the ratio of aggressive calling to f.ighting comparison in G. integer. G. veletis demonstrated mixed results. No difference in aggression between densities was observed in comparisons. Less.aggression did occur in higher densities when comparisons invol.ved fighting behaviour. Male behaviour represents a competitive strategy against ot~er males, strategy being defined as a genetic (in part) alternative to other strategies. In this sense, the factors of time, density, male-male aggression, and female presence are conditions demonstrated to affect male behaviour in G. integer and G. veletis. Individual male differences and other considerations suggest that alternative male behaviours are represented by at least two conditional strategies. This possibility, and the transient 'or stable nature of genetic polymorphisms in field cricket behaviour are considered.