Probabilistic abductive computation of evidence collection strategies in crime investigation

J. Keppens, Q. Shen and B. Schafer. Probabilistic abductive computation of evidence collection strategies in crime investigation. Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Law, pages 215-225.

Aplicação de MonetDB na avaliação de desempenho de bases de dados verticais

Dissertação apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como partes dos requisitos para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Informática, ramo de Sistemas de Informação e Multimédia

Uncertainty visualization in 3D scalar data

One problem in most three-dimensional (3D) scalar data visualization techniques is that they often overlook to depict uncertainty that comes with the 3D scalar data and thus fail to faithfully present the 3D scalar data and have risks which may mislead users’ interpretations, conclusions or even decisions. Therefore this thesis focuses on the study of uncertainty visualization in 3D scalar data and we seek to create better uncertainty visualization techniques, as well as to find out the advantages/disadvantages of those state-of-the-art uncertainty visualization techniques. To do this, we address three specific hypotheses: (1) the proposed Texture uncertainty visualization technique enables users to better identify scalar/error data, and provides reduced visual overload and more appropriate brightness than four state-of-the-art uncertainty visualization techniques, as demonstrated using a perceptual effectiveness user study. (2) The proposed Linked Views and Interactive Specification (LVIS) uncertainty visualization technique enables users to better search max/min scalar and error data than four state-of-the-art uncertainty visualization techniques, as demonstrated using a perceptual effectiveness user study. (3) The proposed Probabilistic Query uncertainty visualization technique, in comparison to traditional Direct Volume Rendering (DVR) methods, enables radiologists/physicians to better identify possible alternative renderings relevant to a diagnosis and the classification probabilities associated to the materials appeared on these renderings; this leads to improved decision support for diagnosis, as demonstrated in the domain of medical imaging. For each hypothesis, we test it by following/implementing a unified framework that consists of three main steps: the first main step is uncertainty data modeling, which clearly defines and generates certainty types of uncertainty associated to given 3D scalar data. The second main step is uncertainty visualization, which transforms the 3D scalar data and their associated uncertainty generated from the first main step into two-dimensional (2D) images for insight, interpretation or communication. The third main step is evaluation, which transforms the 2D images generated from the second main step into quantitative scores according to specific user tasks, and statistically analyzes the scores. As a result, the quality of each uncertainty visualization technique is determined.

Context-aware real-time assistant architecture for pervasive healthcare

The aging population in many countries brings into focus rising healthcare costs and pressure on conventional healthcare services. Pervasive healthcare has emerged as a viable solution capable of providing a technology-driven approach to alleviate such problems by allowing healthcare to move from the hospital-centred care to self-care, mobile care, and at-home care. The state-of-the-art studies in this field, however, lack a systematic approach for providing comprehensive pervasive healthcare solutions from data collection to data interpretation and from data analysis to data delivery. In this thesis we introduce a Context-aware Real-time Assistant (CARA) architecture that integrates novel approaches with state-of-the-art technology solutions to provide a full-scale pervasive healthcare solution with the emphasis on context awareness to help maintaining the well-being of elderly people. CARA collects information about and around the individual in a home environment, and enables accurately recognition and continuously monitoring activities of daily living. It employs an innovative reasoning engine to provide accurate real-time interpretation of the context and current situation assessment. Being mindful of the use of the system for sensitive personal applications, CARA includes several mechanisms to make the sophisticated intelligent components as transparent and accountable as possible, it also includes a novel cloud-based component for more effective data analysis. To deliver the automated real-time services, CARA supports interactive video and medical sensor based remote consultation. Our proposal has been validated in three application domains that are rich in pervasive contexts and real-time scenarios: (i) Mobile-based Activity Recognition, (ii) Intelligent Healthcare Decision Support Systems and (iii) Home-based Remote Monitoring Systems.

Knowledge-based IMRT treatment planning for prostate cancer.

PURPOSE: To demonstrate the feasibility of using a knowledge base of prior treatment plans to generate new prostate intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) plans. Each new case would be matched against others in the knowledge base. Once the best match is identified, that clinically approved plan is used to generate the new plan. METHODS: A database of 100 prostate IMRT treatment plans was assembled into an information-theoretic system. An algorithm based on mutual information was implemented to identify similar patient cases by matching 2D beam's eye view projections of contours. Ten randomly selected query cases were each matched with the most similar case from the database of prior clinically approved plans. Treatment parameters from the matched case were used to develop new treatment plans. A comparison of the differences in the dose-volume histograms between the new and the original treatment plans were analyzed. RESULTS: On average, the new knowledge-based plan is capable of achieving very comparable planning target volume coverage as the original plan, to within 2% as evaluated for D98, D95, and D1. Similarly, the dose to the rectum and dose to the bladder are also comparable to the original plan. For the rectum, the mean and standard deviation of the dose percentage differences for D20, D30, and D50 are 1.8% +/- 8.5%, -2.5% +/- 13.9%, and -13.9% +/- 23.6%, respectively. For the bladder, the mean and standard deviation of the dose percentage differences for D20, D30, and D50 are -5.9% +/- 10.8%, -12.2% +/- 14.6%, and -24.9% +/- 21.2%, respectively. A negative percentage difference indicates that the new plan has greater dose sparing as compared to the original plan. CONCLUSIONS: The authors demonstrate a knowledge-based approach of using prior clinically approved treatment plans to generate clinically acceptable treatment plans of high quality. This semiautomated approach has the potential to improve the efficiency of the treatment planning process while ensuring that high quality plans are developed.

Factors influencing malaria control policy-making in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Policy decisions for malaria control are often difficult to make as decision-makers have to carefully consider an array of options and respond to the needs of a large number of stakeholders. This study assessed the factors and specific objectives that influence malaria control policy decisions, as a crucial first step towards developing an inclusive malaria decision analysis support tool (MDAST). METHODS: Country-specific stakeholder engagement activities using structured questionnaires were carried out in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania. The survey respondents were drawn from a non-random purposeful sample of stakeholders, targeting individuals in ministries and non-governmental organizations whose policy decisions and actions are likely to have an impact on the status of malaria. Summary statistics across the three countries are presented in aggregate. RESULTS: Important findings aggregated across countries included a belief that donor preferences and agendas were exerting too much influence on malaria policies in the countries. Respondents on average also thought that some relevant objectives such as engaging members of parliament by the agency responsible for malaria control in a particular country were not being given enough consideration in malaria decision-making. Factors found to influence decisions regarding specific malaria control strategies included donor agendas, costs, effectiveness of interventions, health and environmental impacts, compliance and/acceptance, financial sustainability, and vector resistance to insecticides. CONCLUSION: Malaria control decision-makers in Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania take into account health and environmental impacts as well as cost implications of different intervention strategies. Further engagement of government legislators and other policy makers is needed in order to increase funding from domestic sources, reduce donor dependence, sustain interventions and consolidate current gains in malaria.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the diagnosis of meniscus tears.

BACKGROUND: Diagnostic imaging represents the fastest growing segment of costs in the US health system. This study investigated the cost-effectiveness of alternative diagnostic approaches to meniscus tears of the knee, a highly prevalent disease that traditionally relies on MRI as part of the diagnostic strategy. PURPOSE: To identify the most efficient strategy for the diagnosis of meniscus tears. STUDY DESIGN: Economic and decision analysis; Level of evidence, 1. METHODS: A simple-decision model run as a cost-utility analysis was constructed to assess the value added by MRI in various combinations with patient history and physical examination (H&P). The model examined traumatic and degenerative tears in 2 distinct settings: primary care and orthopaedic sports medicine clinic. Strategies were compared using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: In both practice settings, H&P alone was widely preferred for degenerative meniscus tears. Performing MRI to confirm a positive H&P was preferred for traumatic tears in both practice settings, with a willingness to pay of less than US$50,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Performing an MRI for all patients was not preferred in any reasonable clinical scenario. The prevalence of a meniscus tear in a clinician's patient population was influential. For traumatic tears, MRI to confirm a positive H&P was preferred when prevalence was less than 46.7%, with H&P preferred above that. For degenerative tears, H&P was preferred until the prevalence reaches 74.2%, and then MRI to confirm a negative was the preferred strategy. In both settings, MRI to confirm positive physical examination led to more than a 10-fold lower rate of unnecessary surgeries than did any other strategy, while MRI to confirm negative physical examination led to a 2.08 and 2.26 higher rate than H&P alone in primary care and orthopaedic clinics, respectively. CONCLUSION: For all practitioners, H&P is the preferred strategy for the suspected degenerative meniscus tear. An MRI to confirm a positive H&P is preferred for traumatic tears for all practitioners. Consideration should be given to implementing alternative diagnostic strategies as well as enhancing provider education in physical examination skills to improve the reliability of H&P as a diagnostic test. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Alternative diagnostic strategies that do not include the use of MRI may result in decreased health care costs without harm to the patient and could possibly reduce unnecessary procedures.

Protocol for the "Implementation, adoption, and utility of family history in diverse care settings" study.

BACKGROUND: Risk assessment with a thorough family health history is recommended by numerous organizations and is now a required component of the annual physical for Medicare beneficiaries under the Affordable Care Act. However, there are several barriers to incorporating robust risk assessments into routine care. MeTree, a web-based patient-facing health risk assessment tool, was developed with the aim of overcoming these barriers. In order to better understand what factors will be instrumental for broader adoption of risk assessment programs like MeTree in clinical settings, we obtained funding to perform a type III hybrid implementation-effectiveness study in primary care clinics at five diverse healthcare systems. Here, we describe the study's protocol. METHODS/DESIGN: MeTree collects personal medical information and a three-generation family health history from patients on 98 conditions. Using algorithms built entirely from current clinical guidelines, it provides clinical decision support to providers and patients on 30 conditions. All adult patients with an upcoming well-visit appointment at one of the 20 intervention clinics are eligible to participate. Patient-oriented risk reports are provided in real time. Provider-oriented risk reports are uploaded to the electronic medical record for review at the time of the appointment. Implementation outcomes are enrollment rate of clinics, providers, and patients (enrolled vs approached) and their representativeness compared to the underlying population. Primary effectiveness outcomes are the percent of participants newly identified as being at increased risk for one of the clinical decision support conditions and the percent with appropriate risk-based screening. Secondary outcomes include percent change in those meeting goals for a healthy lifestyle (diet, exercise, and smoking). Outcomes are measured through electronic medical record data abstraction, patient surveys, and surveys/qualitative interviews of clinical staff. DISCUSSION: This study evaluates factors that are critical to successful implementation of a web-based risk assessment tool into routine clinical care in a variety of healthcare settings. The result will identify resource needs and potential barriers and solutions to implementation in each setting as well as an understanding potential effectiveness. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01956773.

Las infraestructuras de recarga y el despegue del vehículo eléctrico.

Este trabajo revisa la evolución y estado actual de la automoción eléctrica; analiza las ventajas ambientales, de eficiencia energética y de costes del motor eléctrico frente al de combustión interna; y presenta como limitaciones para el uso del vehículo eléctrico, el desarrollo actual de las baterías recargables y la lenta implantación de electrolineras. Con el objetivo de contribuir al desarrollo de una actividad económica respetuosa con el medio ambiente y basada en nuevas tecnologías, se proyecta, a partir de experiencias previas, una instalación de puntos de recarga para una ciudad de 50.000 habitantes con un parque de 100 vehículos eléctricos que dispone de dos plazas de recarga rápida (poste trifásico 400V CA), siete plazas de recarga lenta (postes monofásicos 230V CA) y de 50 módulos fotovoltaicos que producen diariamente la energía equivalente a la recarga lenta de un vehículo en los meses fríos y de dos en los meses cálidos.

From the transformation to the bancarization of the spanishsaving banks: an analysis of the results pursued

This research arises due to the current restructuring process in which is immersed the Spanish banking sector. The above mentioned process is carried out to try to reduce the doubts on the viability of the bank companies to average and long term and to be able to return again the confidence in the sector. Though the economic and financial crisis has concerned the whole banking sector, the subsector of the Spanish savings banks is the one that has experienced a major number of integrations (articulated by means of mergers, absorptions and across Institutional Protection Schemes -IPSs-), and the one that has met submitted to the bancarization process. Considering what has been said, the present paper analyses Spanish saving banks to try to discern whether thanks to that process the objectives pursued by the bank rearrangement have been fulfilled. To do this, the evolution of some important financial variables will be studied over a long period of time (1999-2012). The results suggest that not all the savings banks have seen improved their ratios of efficiency, solvency, financial gap and social work, which indicates that there is still much to be done in order to rectify the problems affecting the studied sector.

Uso problemático de las redes sociales en estudiantes universitarios

Los avances que están produciéndose en el ámbito académico con el surgimiento de herramientas de la Web 2.0 y el empleo masivo por parte de los estudiantes de la redes sociales para comunicarse entre ellos, está haciendo que el panorama educativo se encuentre ante unos desafíos a los que tiene que dar respuesta. La investigación que aquí se presenta tuvo como objetivo principal analizar el estado del empleo de la redes sociales por parte alumnado universitario, así como los posibles malos hábitos y usos problemáticos de las mismas. Se utilizó como instrumento de recogida de información un cuestionario “ad hoc” con un total de 23 ítems. Se concluye que el alumnado en general no posee malos hábitos en el empleo de las redes sociales, igualmente los resultados obtenidos ponen de manifiesto que su utilización no está plenamente integrada en las instituciones universitarias de educación superior, así como que los estudiantes no las emplean/usan como herramienta fundamental para las resolución de cuestiones académicas.

Towards Utilizing Model-Driven Engineering of Composite Applications for Business Performance Analysis

Composite Applications on top of SAPs implementation of SOA (Enterprise SOA) enable the extension of already existing business logic. In this paper we show, based on a case study, how Model-Driven Engineering concepts are applied in the development of such Composite Applications. Our Case Study extends a back-end business process which is required for the specific needs of a demo company selling wine. We use this to describe how the business centric models specifying the modified business behaviour of our case study can be utilized for business performance analysis where most of the actions are performed by humans. In particular, we apply a refined version of Model-Driven Performance Engineering that we proposed in our previous work and motivate which business domain specifics have to be taken into account for business performance analysis. We additionally motivate the need for performance related decision support for domain experts, who generally lack performance related skills. Such a support should offer visual guidance about what should be changed in the design and resource mapping to get improved results with respect to modification constraints and performance objectives, or objectives for time.

PROSTATIC INTRAEPITHELIAL NEOPLASIA (PIN) - PERFORMANCE OF BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORK FOR DIAGNOSIS AND GRADING

Prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN) diagnosis and grading are affected by uncertainties which arise from the fact that almost all knowledge of PIN histopathology is expressed in concepts, descriptive linguistic terms, and words. A Bayesian belief network (BBN) was therefore used to reduce the problem of uncertainty in diagnostic clue assessment, while still considering the dependences between elements in the reasoning sequence. A shallow network was used with an open-tree topology, with eight first-level descendant nodes for the diagnostic clues (evidence nodes), each independently linked by a conditional probability matrix to a root node containing the diagnostic alternatives (decision node). One of the evidence nodes was based on the tissue architecture and the others were based on cell features. The system was designed to be interactive, in that the histopathologist entered evidence into the network in the form of likelihood ratios for outcomes at each evidence node. The efficiency of the network was tested on a series of 110 prostate specimens, subdivided as follows: 22 cases of non-neoplastic prostate or benign prostatic tissue (NP), 22 PINs of low grade (PINlow), 22 PINs of high grade (PINhigh), 22 prostatic adenocarcinomas with cribriform pattern (PACcri), and 22 prostatic adenocarcinomas with large acinar pattern (PAClgac). The results obtained in the benign and malignant categories showed that the belief for the diagnostic alternatives is very high, the values being in general more than 0.8 and often close to 1.0. When considering the PIN lesions, the network classified and graded most of the cases with high certainty. However, there were some cases which showed values less than 0.8 (13 cases out of 44), thus indicating that there are situations in which the feature changes are intermediate between contiguous categories or grades. Discrepancy between morphological grading and the BBN results was observed in four out of 44 PIN cases: one PINlow was classified as PINhigh and three PINhigh were classified as PINlow. In conclusion, the network can grade PlN lesions and differentiate them from other prostate lesions with certainty. In particular, it offers a descriptive classifier which is readily implemented and which allows the use of linguistic, fuzzy variables.

Soil Moisture Deficit as a predictor of the trend in soil water status of grass fields

Nutrient loss from agricultural land following organic fertilizer spreading can lead to eutrophication and poor water quality. The risk of pollution is partly related to the soil water status during and after spreading. In response to these issues, a decision support system (DSS) for nutrient management has been developed to predict when soil and weather conditions are suitable for slurry spreading. At the core of the DSS, the Hybrid Soil Moisture Deficit (HSMD) model estimates soil water status relative to field capacity (FC) for three soil classes (well, moderately and poorly drained) and has potential to predict the occurrence of a transport vector when the soil is wetter than FC. Three years of field observation of volumetric water content was used to validate HSMD model predictions of water status and to ensure correct use and interpretation of the drainage classes. Point HSMD model predictions were validated with respect to the temporal and spatial variations in volumetric water content and soil strength properties. It was found that the HSMD model predictions were well related to topsoil water content through time, but a new class intermediate between poor and moderate, perhaps ‘imperfectly drained’, was needed. With correct allocations of a field into a drainage class, the HSMD model predictions reflect field scale trends in water status and therefore the model is suitable for use at the core of a DSS.

Towards utilizing Model-Driven Engineering of Composite Applications for business performance analysis

Composite Applications on top of SAPs implementation of SOA (Enterprise SOA) enable the extension of already existing business logic. In this paper we show, based on a case study, how Model-Driven Engineering concepts are applied in the development of such Composite Applications. Our Case Study extends a back-end business process which is required for the specific needs of a demo company selling wine. We use this to describe how the business centric models specifying the modified business behaviour of our case study can be utilized for business performance analysis where most of the actions are performed by humans. In particular, we apply a refined version of Model-Driven Performance Engineering that we proposed in our previous work and motivate which business domain specifics have to be taken into account for business performance analysis. We additionally motivate the need for performance related decision support for domain experts, who generally lack performance related skills. Such a support should offer visual guidance about what should be changed in the design and resource mapping to get improved results with respect to modification constraints and performance objectives, or objectives for time.