A bayesian analysis for the parameters of the exponential-logarithmic distribution

The exponential-logarithmic is a new lifetime distribution with decreasing failure rate and interesting applications in the biological and engineering sciences. Thus, a Bayesian analysis of the parameters would be desirable. Bayesian estimation requires the selection of prior distributions for all parameters of the model. In this case, researchers usually seek to choose a prior that has little information on the parameters, allowing the data to be very informative relative to the prior information. Assuming some noninformative prior distributions, we present a Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Jeffreys prior is derived for the parameters of exponential-logarithmic distribution and compared with other common priors such as beta, gamma, and uniform distributions. In this article, we show through a simulation study that the maximum likelihood estimate may not exist except under restrictive conditions. In addition, the posterior density is sometimes bimodal when an improper prior density is used. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

A new species of Metrodorea (Rutaceae) from Brazil: Morphology, molecular phylogenetics, and distribution

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Wavespeed measurement in buried water distribution pipes and its significance in leak location

To determine the location of leaks in buried water pipes, acoustic methods are often used. These have proven to be very effective in metallic pipes but have been problematic in modern plastic pipes. In this paper the reason why this is so is discussed together with some measurements that were made on a bespoke test rig built by South Staffs Water plc. A particular problem is the estimate of the wavespeed. Tables are frequently used for this purpose, but these are often inaccurate and this means that a leak cannot be located accurately. An in-situ measure of the wavespeed is thus preferable. In this paper it is shown that there are significant issues in obtaining an accurate estimate of the wavespeed when a leak is present in the system. A method is proposed that overcomes some of these problems, which is discussed and is demonstrated using some data from the bespoke test-rig. © (2013) Trans Tech Publications.

Evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin in southern Brazil derived from zircon and apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He and fission-track data

The area between São Paulo and Porto Alegre in southeastern Brazil plays a key area to understand and quantify the evolution of the South Atlantic passive continental margin (SAPCM) in Brazil. In this contribution, we present new thermochronological data attained by fission-track and (U-Th-Sm)/He analysis on apatites and zircons from metamorphic, sedimentary and intrusive rocks. The zircon fission-track ages range between 108.4 (15.0) and 539.9 (68.4). Ma, the zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He ages between 72.9 (5.8) and 525.1(2.4). Ma, whereas the apatite fission-track ages range between 40.0 (5.3) and 134.7 (8.0). Ma, and the apatite (U-Th-Sm)/He ages between 32.1 (1.5) and 93.0 (2.5). Ma. The spatial distribution of these ages shows three distinct blocks with a different evolution cut by old fracture zones. While the central block exhibits an old stable block, the Northern and especially the Southern block underwent complex post-rift exhumation. The sample of the Northern block shows two distinct cooling phases in the Upper Cretaceous and the Paleogene to Neogene. After sedimentation of the Permian sandstones the samples of the Central block were never heated up over 100. °C with a following moderate to fast cooling phase in Cretaceous to Eocene time and a fast cooling between Oligocene to Miocene. The five thermal models obtained in the Southern block indicate a complex evolution with three cooling phases. The exhumation events of the three blocks correspond with the Paraná-Etendekka event, the alkaline intrusions due to the Trinidad hotspot, and the evolution of the continental rift basins in SE Brazil and are, therefore, most likely to be the major force for the post-rift evolution of the passive continental margin in SE Brazil, which therefore corresponds to the three main phases of the Andean orogeny. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Labour productivity and distribution issues

Although the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean grew more slowly in 2011 than in 2010, there were some improvements on the employment front. Workers benefited from the region’s satisfactory economic performance in an increasingly complex international setting. The unemployment rate fell from 7.3% in 2010 to 6.7% in 2011 thanks to a halfpercentage- point gain in the urban employment rate. Both rates are at levels that have not been seen for a long time. The proportion of formal jobs with social benefits rose as well, and underemployment declined. The average wage and the minimum wage both increased in real terms, albeit only moderately. Economic performance and the employment situation varied widely among the subregions. The unemployment rate dropped by 0.6 percentage points in South America but 0.4 percentage points in the countries of the northern part of Latin America. In the countries of the Caribbean, the employment rate was up by 0.2 percentage points. The data show that substantial labour market gaps and serious labour-market insertion issues remain. This is especially the case for women and young people, for whom unemployment rates and other labour indicators are still unfavourable. The second part of this report looks at whether the fruits of economic growth and rising productivity have been distributed equitably between workers and companies. Between 2002 and 2008 (the most recent expansionary economic cycle), wages as a percentage of GDP fell in 13 of the 21 countries of the region for which data are available and rose in just 8. This points to redistribution that is unfavourable to workers, which is worrying in a region which already has the most unequal distribution of income in the world. Underlying this trend is the fact that, worldwide, wages have grown less than productivity. Beyond the ethical dimension of this issue, it jeopardizes the social and economic sustainability of growth. For example, one of the root causes of the recent financial crisis was that households in the United States responded to declining wage income by borrowing more to pay for consumption and housing. This turned out to be unsustainable in the long run. Over time, it undermines the labour market’s contribution to the efficient allocation of resources and its distributive function, too, with negative consequences for democratic governance. Among the triggers of this distributive worsening most often cited in the global debate are market deregulation and its impact on financial globalization, technological change that favours capital over labour, and the weakening of labour institutions. What is needed here is a public policy effort to help keep wage increases from lagging behind increases in productivity. Some countries of the region, especially in South America, saw promising developments during the second half of the 2000s in the form of a positive trend reversal in wages as a percentage of GDP. One example is Brazil, where a minimum wage policy tailored to the dynamics of the domestic market is considered to be one of the factors behind an upturn in the wage share of GDP. The region needs to grow more and better. Productivity must grow at a steady pace, to serve as the basis for sustained improvements in the well-being of the populace and to narrow the gap between the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean and the more advanced economies. And inequality must be decreased; this could be achieved by closing the productivity gap between upgraded companies and the many firms whose productivity is low. As set out in this report, the region made some progress between 2002 and 2010, with labour productivity rising at the rate of 1.5% a year. But this progress falls short of that seen in other regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa (2.1%) and, above all, East Asia (8.3%, not counting Japan and the Republic of Korea). Moreover, in many of the countries of the region these gains have not been distributed equitably. Therein lies a dual challenge that must be addressed: continue to increase productivity while enhancing the mechanisms for distributing gains in a way that will encourage investment and boost worker and household income. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) and the International Labour Organization (ILO) estimate that the pace of economic growth in the region will be slightly slower in 2012 than in 2011, in a global economic scenario marked by the cooling of several of the main economic engines and a high degree of uncertainty concerning, above all, prospects for the euro zone. The region is expected to continue to hold up well to this worsening scenario, thanks to policies that leveraged more favourable conditions in the past. This will be felt in the labour markets, as well, so expectations are that unemployment will edge down by as much as two tenths of a decimal point.

Molecular identification, phylogeny and geographic distribution of Brazilian mangrove oysters (Crassostrea)

Oysters (Ostreidae) manifest a high degree of phenotypic plasticity, whereby morphology is of limited value for species identification and taxonomy. By using molecular data, the aim was to genetically characterize the species of Crassostrea occurring along the Brazilian coast, and phylogenetically relate these to other Crassostrea from different parts of the world. Sequencing of the partial cytochrome oxidase c subunit I gene (COI), revealed a total of three species of Crassostrea at 16 locations along the Brazilian coast. C. gasar was found from Curuçá (Pará state) to Santos (São Paulo state), and C. rhizophorae from Fortim (Ceará state) to Florianópolis (Santa Catarina state), although small individuals of the latter species were also found at Ajuruteua beach (municipality of Bragança, Pará state). An unidentified Crassostrea species was found only on Canela Island, Bragança. Crassostrea gasar and C. rhizophorae grouped with C. virginica, thereby forming a monophyletic Atlantic group, whereas Crassostrea sp. from Canela Island was shown to be more similar to Indo-Pacific oysters, and either arrived in the Atlantic Ocean before the convergence of the Isthmus of Panama or was accidentally brought to Brazil by ship.

Distribution of hepatitis C virus genotypes among different exposure categories in the State of Pará, Brazilian Amazon

INTRODUÇÃO: Estudos epidemiológicos sobre a distribuição genotípica do HCV na Amazônia Brasileira são escassos. Baseado nisto, determinamos o padrão de distribuição genotípica do HCV em diferentes categorias de exposição no Estado do Pará, Amazônia Brasileira. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal foi realizado com 312 indivíduos infectados pelo HCV, pertencentes a diferentes categorias de exposição atendidas pelo HEMOPA, CENPREN e uma clínica privada de hemodiálise em Belém. Eles foram testados quanto à presença de anticorpos anti-HCV por teste imunoenzimático, RNA-HCV utilizando PCR em tempo real e genotipados através de análise filogenética da 5' UTR. Os grupos de populações foram caracterizados epidemiologicamente de acordo com dados coletados em breve entrevista ou consulta de prontuários médicos. RESULTADOS: Em todas as diferentes categorias de exposição ao HCV, foram encontrados predomínio do genótipo 1. A distribuição genotípica do HCV em doadores de sangue (BD) foi constituída pelos genótipos 1 (94%) e 3 (6%). Todos os pacientes com doenças hematológicas crônicas (PCHD) possuíam genótipo 1. A distribuição genotípica em usuários de drogas ilícitas (DU) foi constituída pelos genótipos 1 (59,6%) e 3 (40,4%). Em pacientes em hemodiálise (PUH) foram detectados os genótipos 1 (90,1%), 2 (3,3%) e 3 (6,6%). Finalmente, a frequência entre os genótipos 1 e 3 foi significativamente diferente entre os grupos: BD e DU, PUH e DU, PUH e PCHD, e PCHD e DU. CONCLUSÕES: A frequência genotípica e distribuição de HCV em diferentes categorias de exposição no Estado do Pará mostraram predominância do genótipo 1, independentemente do possível risco de infecção.

Heterogeneous ethnic distribution of the factor V leiden mutation

Inherited resistance to activated protein C caused by the factor V Leiden (FVL) mutation is the most common genetic cause of venous thrombosis yet described, being found in 20-60% of patients with venous thrombophilia. A relationship between the FVL mutation and an increased predisposition to arterial thrombosis in young women was recently reported. We assessed the prevalence of the FVL mutation in 440 individuals (880 chromosomes) belonging to four different ethnic groups: Caucasians, African Blacks, Asians and Amerindians. PCR amplification followed by MnlI digestion was employed to define the genotype. The FVL mutation was found in a heterozygous state in four out of 152 Whites (2.6%), one out of 151 Amerindians (0.6%), and was absent among 97 African Blacks and 40 Asians. Our results confirm that FVL has a heterogeneous distribution in different human populations, a fact that may contribute to geographic and ethnic differences in the prevalence of thrombotic diseases. In addition, these data may be helpful in decisions regarding the usefulness of screening for the FVL mutation in subjects at risk for thrombosis.

Spatial distribution of the amazon river prawn Macrobrachium Amazonicum (Heller, 1862) (Decapoda, Caridea, Palaemonidae) in two perennial creeks of an estuary on the northern coast of Brazil (Guajará Bay, Belém, Pará)

Macrobrachium amazonicum é o crustáceo dulcícola mais frequentemente consumido pelas populações ribeirinhas da Amazônia. Entretanto, apesar de sua relativa abundância e vasto conhecimento da espécie a partir de dados de cultivo, pouco se conhece sobre sua biologia no ambiente natural, especialmente quanto à forma de utilização de canais fortemente influenciados pelas marés. Amostras desse camarão foram coletadas em setembro/06 (período seco) e março/07 (período chuvoso), em dois canais perenes da Baía do Guajará, Pará, utilizando armadilhas (matapis) como as utilizadas pelos pescadores locais para identificar a distribuição espacial dos organismos. Os canais de maré são utilizados por camarões de todos os tamanhos nas duas estações do ano, inclusive para a reprodução. A maior abundância de indivíduos da espécie foi encontrada no período seco, nas áreas a montante dos canais. Postula-se que a abundante matéria orgânica alóctone e a busca de locais protegidos podem ser os fatores que explicam a concentração da abundância e da atividade reprodutiva nas áreas a montante dos canais.

Longitudinal distribution of Chironomidae (Diptera) downstream from a dam in a neotropical river

O barramento de um rio pode causar graves consequências sobre a natureza do ambiente, abaixo da barragem, modificando a composição do sedimento, as quais impõem importantes ajustes da distribuição longitudinal das comunidades bentônicas. A construção da Usina Hidrelétrica Engenheiro Sérgio Motta no alto rio Paraná, tem causado impactos em várias comunidades aquáticas, que ainda não são totalmente conhecidos. Este trabalho objetivou fornecer mais informações sobre os efeitos desse represamento na assembleia de Chironomidae. A análise das variáveis físicas e químicas em relação aos dados biológicos de oito transectos longitudinais no alto rio Paraná revelou que a composição das larvas de Chironomidae das estações mais próximas à barragem da Usina Engenheiro Sérgio Motta diferiu das demais (estações mais distantes). A predominância de sedimentos mais grosseiros nas estações a montante e sedimentos mais finos mais a jusante afetou a escolha de habitat pelos diferentes morfotipos de Chironomidae, que levou a alteração na estrutura desta assembleia ao longo do trecho amostrado.

Distributions and phylogeographic data of rheophilic freshwater fishes provide evidences on the geographic extension of a central-brazilian amazonian palaeoplateau in the area of the present day Pantanal Wetland

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Spatial distribution of dengue incidence and socio-environmental conditions in Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil, 2007

This study aimed to analyze the spatial distribution of dengue risk and its association with socio-environmental conditions. This was an ecological study of the counts of autochthonous dengue cases in the municipality of Campinas, São Paulo State, Brazil, in the year 2007, aggregated according to 47 coverage areas of municipal health centers. Spatial models for mapping diseases were constructed with Bayesian hierarchical models, based on Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA). The analyses were stratified according to two age groups, 0 to 14 years and above 14 years. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue risk is not associated with socio-environmental conditions in the 0 to 14 year age group. In the age group older than 14 years, the relative risk of dengue increases significantly as the level of socio-environmental deprivation increases. Mapping of socio-environmental deprivation and dengue cases proved to be a useful tool for data analysis in dengue surveillance systems.

Entomological surveillance, spatial distribution, and diversity of culicidae (diptera) immatures in a rural area of the atlantic forest biome, state of sao paulo, brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Searches for new physics using the t(t)over-bar invariant mass distribution in pp collisions at root s=8 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Recent and future environmental suitability to dengue fever in Brazil using species distribution model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)