Evaluación de la adherencia al esquema de vacunación Plan Ampliado de Inmunizaciones Clínica Infantil Colsubsidio

Introducción. La vacunación es el resultado del esfuerzo del hombre por encontrar una protección real contra las enfermedades infecciosas. Es una de las más importantes intervenciones de salud pública sobre estas enfermedades. En una acción conjunta de las naciones del mundo, se creó el Plan Ampliado de Inmunizaciones (PAI) con el fin de alcanzar el control y la erradicación de dichas enfermedades.Materiales y Métodos. Se realizó un estudio observacional descriptivo retrospectivo tomando los datos de todos los niños y niñas menores de 6 años de edad, usuarios del programa de Promoción, Educación y Prevención (PEP) de la Clínica Infantil Colsubsidio en Bogotá, Colombia, que asistieron y fueron atendidos en el centro de vacunación de dicha institución entre el 1ro de enero y el 31 de diciembre de 2005.Resultados. Se encontró registro de 7.686 menores de 6 años en la base de datos del Centro de Vacunación de la Clínica Infantil Colsubsidio. El 65,7% cumplieron con el esquema PAI según la edad, mientras que un 34,2% tenía aún el esquema PAI incompleto. Los niños (as) entre los 6 meses y los 2 años de edad con el grupo con el menor número de vacunas aplicadas pertenecientes al esquema PAI (19,8%). De los 30.984 biológicos aplicados, el 87,1% pertenecen al esquema PAI, y el 12,8% restante corresponde a los biológicos complementarios.Conclusiones. Este estudio, preliminar, muestra unas cifras alarmantes en cuanto a cobertura y vacunación, empero promueve la búsqueda de las fallas que existen para que no se esté cumpliendo con el esquema de vacunación PAI, y fortalece aún más el programa de promoción, educación y prevención PEP que se realiza en la red de salud de Colsubsidio.

Caracterización de accidentalidad en una aseguradora de riesgos laborales de Colombia entre el año 2013 al 2014

Objetivo: Caracterizar la accidentalidad presentada en una aseguradora de riesgos laborales de Colombia, entre el año 2013 al 2014, utilizando las variables que se identifican en la base de datos con el fin de establecer la incidencia de eventos calificados como accidentes laborales. Metodología: Se realizó un estudio tipo observacional descriptivo de incidencia retrospectiva. Los datos utilizados son los accidentes laborales ocurridos entre julio de 2013 y junio de 2014 en una aseguradora de riesgos laborales de Colombia. Resultados: Los mayores índices de accidentalidad se encontraron en los sectores de construcción (16.03%) y servicios generales (13.89%). Los principales departamentos con mayor reporte y calificación de accidente de trabajo fueron Antioquia (25.59%), Bogotá (19.40%), Valle del cauca (12.77%) y Cundinamarca (8.08%). La mayoría de estos eventos generaron atenciones de tipo ambulatorio (95.79%) y se relacionaron con todo tipo de riesgo según la clasificación de las variables. Se identificaron los principales departamentos con reportes de eventos mortales dentro de los cuales esta Antioquia y Bogotá, asociados al riesgo tránsito (19.05%) y SOAT (19.73%). Conclusión: El sector construcción continúa siendo el de mayor accidentalidad a nivel país, lo cual debe llevar a replantear o profundizar en las estrategias de prevención con las empresas y trabajadores. Al controlar la frecuencia de accidentalidad por medio de educación, sensibilización y prevención, se generaran más conocimientos sobre los factores de riesgo a los que se exponen diariamente en su actividad laboral. Es importante hacer partícipe a las empresas y empleados en el reporte de los eventos con oportunidad y calidad en la información.

On the design of education conditional cash transfer programs and non education outcomes: the case of teenage pregnancy

We investigate the effect of education Conditional Cash Transfer programs (CCTs) on teenage pregnancy. Our main concern is with how the size and sign of the effect may depend on the design of the program. Using a simple model we show that an education CCT that conditions renewal on school performance reduces teenage pregnancy; the program can increase teenage pregnancy if it does not condition on school performance. Then, using an original data base, we estimate the causal impact on teenage pregnancy of two education CCTs implemented in Bogot´a (Subsidio Educativo, SE, and Familias en Acci´on, FA); both programs differ particularly on whether school success is a condition for renewal or not. We show that SE has negative average effect on teenage pregnancy while FA has a null average effect. We also find that SE has either null or no effect for adolescents in all age and grade groups while FA has positive, null or negative effects for adolescents in different age and grade groups. Since SE conditions renewal on school success and FA does not, we can argue that the empirical results are consistent with the predictions of our model and that conditioning renewal of the subsidy on school success crucially determines the effect of the subsidy on teenage pregnancy

Remesas y desarrollo económico. Un análisis empírico del caso mexicano

El objetivo de este trabajo es contribuir a identificar el efecto de las remesas que envían los emigrantes a sus comunidades de origen en México. Del mismo modo, se estudia el efecto que la participación de la mujer tiene en este proceso. La fuente de información es el Consejo Nacional de Población de México CONAPO y contiene variables a nivel estatal y municipal para el año 2000. La base de datos contiene índices de desarrollo humano, intensidad migratoria y remesas para los 2443 municipios mexicanos. La evidencia empírica sugiere que las remesas tienen un impacto positivo sobre los niveles de desarrollo de las comunidades receptoras. No obstante, la relación entre remesas y desarrollo es no lineal. Adicionalmente, se en contró que el efecto positivo que tienen las remesas sobre el desarrollo es más alto cuando la cabeza de familia de los hogares receptores es mujer.

Determinants of demand for antenatal care in Colombia

Even though antenatal care is universally regarded as important, determinants of demand for antenatal care have not been widely studied. Evidence concerning which and how socioeconomic conditions influence whether a pregnant woman attends or not at least one antenatal consultation or how these factors affect the absences to antenatal consultations is very limited. In order to generate this evidence, a two-stage analysis was performed with data from the Demographic and Health Survey carried out by Profamilia in Colombia during 2005. The first stage was run as a logit model showing the marginal effects on the probability of attending the first visit and an ordinary least squares model was performed for the second stage. It was found that mothers living in the pacific region as well as young mothers seem to have a lower probability of attending the first visit but these factors are not related to the number of absences to antenatal consultation once the first visit has been achieved. The effect of health insurance was surprising because of the differing effects that the health insurers showed. Some familiar and personal conditions such as willingness to have the last children and number of previous children, demonstrated to be important in the determination of demand. The effect of mother’s educational attainment was proved as important whereas the father’s educational achievement was not. This paper provides some elements for policy making in order to increase the demand inducement of antenatal care, as well as stimulating research on demand for specific issues on health.

Observatorio del tratado de libre comercio entre Colombia y la Unión Europea (Irlanda, Italia, Letonia, Lituania y Luxemburgo): Estrategia de Internacionalización para las PYMES en Colombia

Este trabajo expone algunas de las potencialidades con las que Colombia cuenta en el mercado de la Unión Europea, más exactamente en los países de Irlanda, Italia, Letonia, Lituania y Luxemburgo. Lo anterior tomando como referencia las cifras de exportaciones de Colombia hacia estos países durante los últimos 4 años, así como las importaciones de cada uno de los países provenientes de todo el mundo. Este análisis permite conocer las oportunidades que las Pymes Colombianas tienen frente a cada uno de los mercados de los países anteriormente mencionados, con el fin de proporcionar información pertinente y útil para futuras acciones y análisis. Cada país es analizado en cuanto a las cifras registradas en la base de datos WISERTrade para la operación comercial de importación de todos los bienes para los años 2012 a 2015 (acumulado). Esto permite hallar tendencias y el comportamiento del mercado para evidenciar oportunidades de penetración en dichos mercados.

The Syntactic Information in the 'Diccionario Crítico Etimológico Castellano e Hispánico' by J. Corominas and J.A. Pascual as Expressed in the Database 'Syntax.Dbf'

L'objectiu d'aquest article és presentar l'estructura de la base de dades relacional que inclou tota la informació sintictica continguda en el Diccionario Critico Etimológico Castellano e Hispánico de J. Corominas i J. A. Pascual. Tot i que aquest diccionari conté un ampli ventall d'informacions històriques de cadascun dels temes, aquestes no es mostren de forma estructurada, per la qual cosa ha estat necessari estudiar i classificar tots aquells elements relacionats amb aspectes sintàctics. És a partir d'aquest estudi previ que s'han elaborat els diferents camps de la base de dades, els quals s'agrupen en cinc blocs temàtics: informació lemàtica; gramatical; sintàctica; altres aspectes relacionats; i observacions o comentaris rellevants fets per l'investigador. Aquesta base de dades no només reprodueix els continguts del diccionari, sinó que inclou diferents camps interpretatius. Per aquesta raó, Syntax. dbf representa una eina de treball fonamental per a tots aquells investigadors interessats en la sintaxi diacrònica de l'espanyol

Aislamiento, identificación y conservación de cultivos de bacterias lácticas antagonistas de microbiota contaminante de sangre de matadero

La sangre obtenida en el matadero es un producto altamente contaminado que requiere un procesamiento inmediato si se pretende utilizarla como insumo alimentario en la fabricación de productos destinados al consumo humano. Si bien es cierto que los sistemas de higienización podrían ser muy eficientes desde el punto de vista de calidad microbiológica, su instalación en la línea de sacrificio comportaría muchas dificultades desde el punto de vista técnico y en algún caso sería muy costoso. La bioconservación podría ser una alternativa para mejorar la calidad microbiológica de la sangre, alargar su vida útil y reducir las posibilidades de procesamiento inmediato. El presente estudio nos permitiría formular la posibilidad de aplicar la bioconservación en sangre de cerdo procedente de matadero industrial, utilizando bacterias ácido lácticas (BAL) como cultivo bioprotector, para lo cual se aislaron cepas de BAL autóctonas y se confeccionaron dos colecciones una de BAL mesófilas y otra de psicrótrofas. Se evaluó el potencial antagonista de la colección de BAL mesófilas y psicrótrofas a 30ºC y a 15ºC respectivamente frente a bacterias contaminantes habituales de este subproducto. Las BAL que demostraron antagonismo en placa (7,1% a 30ºC y 11% a 15ºC) fueron seleccionadas para evaluar el potencial antagonista en sangre, donde el efecto inhibitorio se vio favorecido por la adición de un 2% glucosa. S.aureus y P. fluorescens fueron los indicadores más inhibidos por las cepas mesófilas, en algunos casos con reducciones superiores a 7 unidades logarítmicas. En condiciones psicrótrofas la bacteria más sensible a la presencia de BAL fue Bacillus sp., donde 8 de las 11 BAL ensayadas permitieron reducciones superiores a 4 logs y 1cepa incluso superiores a 7 logs; se obtuvieron reducciones máximas de 3 logs de E.coli y Pseudomonas fue inhibida por todas las BAL ensayadas, en algún caso con reducciones superiores a 5 logs. Las 5 que cepas que presentaron el espectro de inhibición más amplio en condiciones mesófilas y 7 en condiciones psicrótrofas frente a los microorganismos indicadores contaminantes de sangre de matadero se identificaron mediante técnicas moleculares por comparación de la secuencias correspondientes al gen que codifica la síntesis de 16S ARNr (16S ADNr) con las secuencias publicadas en las bases de datos. De las 7 cepas antagonistas en condiciones psicrótrofas 5 se identificaron como Lactococcus garvieae y 2 como Enterococcus malodoratus/gilvius raffinosus. Todas las BAL con potencial antagonista en condiciones mesófilas pertenecían al género Lactobacillus, 3 de elllas se identificaron como Lactobacillus murinus/animalis y una se identificó como Lactobacillus reuteri. TA20 que tuvo un gran espectro de inhibición a ambas temperaturas se identificó como Lactococcus garvieae. En este estudio se evaluaron tres métodos de conservación a largo plazo de las cepas que mostraron potencial antagonista. Se comparó la liofilización, la atomización frente a la congelación a -80ºC que era método que se había utilizado hasta el momento para conservar ambas colecciones de BAL. En general, los métodos de deshidratación (atomización y liofilización) y mantenimiento en refrigeración a 5ºC de los cultivos deshidratados se han mostrado más eficaces que la congelación.

Sensitivity of large-scale atmospheric analyses to humidity observations and its impact on the global water cycle and tropical and extratropical weather systems in ERA40

Reanalysis data obtained from data assimilation are increasingly used for diagnostic studies of the general circulation of the atmosphere, for the validation of modelling experiments and for estimating energy and water fluxes between the Earth surface and the atmosphere. Because fluxes are not specifically observed, but determined by the data assimilation system, they are not only influenced by the utilized observations but also by model physics and dynamics and by the assimilation method. In order to better understand the relative importance of humidity observations for the determination of the hydrological cycle, in this paper we describe an assimilation experiment using the ERA40 reanalysis system where all humidity data have been excluded from the observational data base. The surprising result is that the model, driven by the time evolution of wind, temperature and surface pressure, is able to almost completely reconstitute the large-scale hydrological cycle of the control assimilation without the use of any humidity data. In addition, analysis of the individual weather systems in the extratropics and tropics using an objective feature tracking analysis indicates that the humidity data have very little impact on these systems. We include a discussion of these results and possible consequences for the way moisture information is assimilated, as well as the potential consequences for the design of observing systems for climate monitoring. It is further suggested, with support from a simple assimilation study with another model, that model physics and dynamics play a decisive role for the hydrological cycle, stressing the need to better understand these aspects of model parametrization. .

Sensitivity of the ERA40 reanalysis to the observing system: determination of the global atmospheric circulation from reduced observations

The impact of selected observing systems on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-yr reanalysis (ERA40) is explored by mimicking observational networks of the past. This is accomplished by systematically removing observations from the present observational data base used by ERA40. The observing systems considered are a surface-based system typical of the period prior to 1945/50, obtained by only retaining the surface observations, a terrestrial-based system typical of the period 1950-1979, obtained by removing all space-based observations, and finally a space-based system, obtained by removing all terrestrial observations except those for surface pressure. Experiments using these different observing systems have been limited to seasonal periods selected from the last 10 yr of ERA40. The results show that the surface-based system has severe limitations in reconstructing the atmospheric state of the upper troposphere and stratosphere. The terrestrial system has major limitations in generating the circulation of the Southern Hemisphere with considerable errors in the position and intensity of individual weather systems. The space-based system is able to analyse the larger-scale aspects of the global atmosphere almost as well as the present observing system but performs less well in analysing the smaller-scale aspects as represented by the vorticity field. Here, terrestrial data such as radiosondes and aircraft observations are of paramount importance. The terrestrial system in the form of a limited number of radiosondes in the tropics is also required to analyse the quasi-biennial oscillation phenomenon in a proper way. The results also show the dominance of the satellite observing system in the Southern Hemisphere. These results all indicate that care is required in using current reanalyses in climate studies due to the large inhomogeneity of the available observations, in particular in time.

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Modelled soil organic carbon stocks and changes in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, India from 1980 to 2030

The Global Environment Facility co-financed Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Project developed a comprehensive modelling system for predicting soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and changes over time. This research is an effort to predict SOC stocks and changes for the Indian, Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP), an area with a predominantly rice (Oryza sativa) - wheat (Triticum aestivum) cropping system, using the GEFSOC Modelling System and to compare output with stocks generated using mapping approaches based on soil survey data. The GEFSOC Modelling System predicts an estimated SOC stock for the IGP, India of 1.27, 1.32 and 1.27 Pg for 1990, 2000 and 2030, respectively, in the top 20 cm of soil. The SOC stock using a mapping approach based on soil survey data was 0.66 and 0.88 Pg for 1980 and 2000, respectively. The SOC stock estimated using the GEFSOC Modelling System is higher than the stock estimated using the mapping approach. This is due to the fact that while the GEFSOC System accounts for variation in crop input data (crop management), the soil mapping approach only considers regional variation in soil texture and wetness. The trend of overall change in the modelled SOC stock estimates shows that the IGP, India may have reached an equilibrium following 30-40 years of the Green Revolution. This can be seen in the SOC stock change rates. Various different estimation methods show SOC stocks of 0.57-1.44 Pg C for the study area. The trend of overall change in C stock assessed from the soil survey data indicates that the soils of the IGP, India may store a projected 1.1 Pg of C in 2030. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The APE atlas

This Atlas presents statistical analyses of the simulations submitted to the Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE) data archive. The simulations are from global Atmospheric General Circulation Models (AGCM) applied to a water-covered earth. The AGCMs include ones actively used or being developed for numerical weather prediction or climate research. Some are mature, application models and others are more novel and thus less well tested in Earth-like applications. The experiment applies AGCMs with their complete parameterization package to an idealization of the planet Earth which has a greatly simplified lower boundary that consists of an ocean only. It has no land and its associated orography, and no sea ice. The ocean is represented by Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) which are specified everywhere with simple, idealized distributions. Thus in the hierarchy of tests available for AGCMs, APE falls between tests with simplified forcings such as those proposed by Held and Suarez (1994) and Boer and Denis (1997) and Earth-like simulations of the Atmospheric Modeling Intercomparison Project (AMIP, Gates et al., 1999). Blackburn and Hoskins (2013) summarize the APE and its aims. They discuss where the APE fits within a modeling hierarchy which has evolved to evaluate complete models and which provides a link between realistic simulation and conceptual models of atmospheric phenomena. The APE bridges a gap in the existing hierarchy. The goals of APE are to provide a benchmark of current model behaviors and to stimulate research to understand the cause of inter-model differences., APE is sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) joint Commission on Atmospheric Science (CAS), World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE). Chapter 2 of this Atlas provides an overview of the specification of the eight APE experiments and of the data collected. Chapter 3 lists the participating models and includes brief descriptions of each. Chapters 4 through 7 present a wide variety of statistics from the 14 participating models for the eight different experiments. Additional intercomparison figures created by Dr. Yukiko Yamada in AGU group are available at http://www.gfd-dennou.org/library/ape/comparison/. This Atlas is intended to present and compare the statistics of the APE simulations but does not contain a discussion of interpretive analyses. Such analyses are left for journal papers such as those included in the Special Issue of the Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan (2013, Vol. 91A) devoted to the APE. Two papers in that collection provide an overview of the simulations. One (Blackburn et al., 2013) concentrates on the CONTROL simulation and the other (Williamson et al., 2013) on the response to changes in the meridional SST profile. Additional papers provide more detailed analysis of the basic simulations, while others describe various sensitivities and applications. The APE experiment data base holds a wealth of data that is now publicly available from the APE web site: http://climate.ncas.ac.uk/ape/. We hope that this Atlas will stimulate future analyses and investigations to understand the large variation seen in the model behaviors.

DIRTMAP: the geological record of dust.

Atmospheric dust is an important feedback in the climate system, potentially affecting the radiative balance and chemical composition of the atmosphere and providing nutrients to terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Yet the potential impact of dust on the climate system, both in the anthropogenically disturbed future and the naturally varying past, remains to be quantified. The geologic record of dust provides the opportunity to test earth system models designed to simulate dust. Records of dust can be obtained from ice cores, marine sediments, and terrestrial (loess) deposits. Although rarely unequivocal, these records document a variety of processes (source, transport and deposition) in the dust cycle, stored in each archive as changes in clay mineralogy, isotopes, grain size, and concentration of terrigenous materials. Although the extraction of information from each type of archive is slightly different, the basic controls on these dust indicators are the same. Changes in the dust flux and particle size might be controlled by a combination of (a) source area extent, (b) dust emission efficiency (wind speed) and atmospheric transport, (c) atmospheric residence time of dust, and/or (d) relative contributions of dry settling and rainout of dust. Similarly, changes in mineralogy reflect (a) source area mineralogy and weathering and (b) shifts in atmospheric transport. The combination of these geological data with process-based, forward-modelling schemes in global earth system models provides an excellent means of achieving a comprehensive picture of the global pattern of dust accumulation rates, their controlling mechanisms, and how those mechanisms may vary regionally. The Dust Indicators and Records of Terrestrial and MArine Palaeoenvironments (DIRTMAP) data base has been established to provide a global palaeoenvironmental data set that can be used to validate earth system model simulations of the dust cycle over the past 150,000 years.

How well can we simulate past climates? Evaluating the models using global palaeoenvironmental datasets.

Global syntheses of palaeoenvironmental data are required to test climate models under conditions different from the present. Data sets for this purpose contain data from spatially extensive networks of sites. The data are either directly comparable to model output or readily interpretable in terms of modelled climate variables. Data sets must contain sufficient documentation to distinguish between raw (primary) and interpreted (secondary, tertiary) data, to evaluate the assumptions involved in interpretation of the data, to exercise quality control, and to select data appropriate for specific goals. Four data bases for the Late Quaternary, documenting changes in lake levels since 30 kyr BP (the Global Lake Status Data Base), vegetation distribution at 18 kyr and 6 kyr BP (BIOME 6000), aeolian accumulation rates during the last glacial-interglacial cycle (DIRTMAP), and tropical terrestrial climates at the Last Glacial Maximum (the LGM Tropical Terrestrial Data Synthesis) are summarised. Each has been used to evaluate simulations of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM: 21 calendar kyr BP) and/or mid-Holocene (6 cal. kyr BP) environments. Comparisons have demonstrated that changes in radiative forcing and orography due to orbital and ice-sheet variations explain the first-order, broad-scale (in space and time) features of global climate change since the LGM. However, atmospheric models forced by 6 cal. kyr BP orbital changes with unchanged surface conditions fail to capture quantitative aspects of the observed climate, including the greatly increased magnitude and northward shift of the African monsoon during the early to mid-Holocene. Similarly, comparisons with palaeoenvironmental datasets show that atmospheric models have underestimated the magnitude of cooling and drying of much of the land surface at the LGM. The inclusion of feedbacks due to changes in ocean- and land-surface conditions at both times, and atmospheric dust loading at the LGM, appears to be required in order to produce a better simulation of these past climates. The development of Earth system models incorporating the dynamic interactions among ocean, atmosphere, and vegetation is therefore mandated by Quaternary science results as well as climatological principles. For greatest scientific benefit, this development must be paralleled by continued advances in palaeodata analysis and synthesis, which in turn will help to define questions that call for new focused data collection efforts.