Evaluating the legacy of landscape history: extinction debt and species credit in bird and small mammal assemblages in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

There is now an extensive literature on extinction debt following deforestation. However, the potential for species credit in landscapes that have experienced a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover has received little attention. Both delayed responses should depend on current landscape forest cover and on species life-history traits, such as longevity, as short-lived species are likely to respond faster than long-lived species. We evaluated the effects of historical and present-day local forest cover on two vertebrate groups with different longevities understorey birds and non-flying small mammals - in forest patches at three Atlantic Forest landscapes. Our work investigated how the probability of extinction debt and species credit varies (i) amongst landscapes with different proportions of forest cover and distinct trajectories of forest cover change, and (ii) between taxa with different life spans. Our results suggest that the existence of extinction debt and species credit, as well as the potential for their future payment and/or receipt, is not only related to forest cover trajectory but also to the amount of remaining forest cover at the landscape scale. Moreover, differences in bird and small mammal life spans seem to be insufficient to affect differently their probability of showing time-delayed responses to landscape change. Synthesis and applications. Our work highlights the need for considering not only the trajectory of deforestation/regeneration but also the amount of forest cover at landscape scale when investigating time-delayed responses to landscape change. As many landscapes are experiencing a change from decreasing to expanding forest cover, understanding the association of extinction and immigration processes, as well as their interactions with the landscape dynamic, is a key factor to plan conservation and restoration actions in human-altered landscapes.

STATE INSTITUTIONS, POWER, AND SOCIAL NETWORKS IN BRAZILIAN URBAN POLICIES

A large historiographic tradition has studied the Brazilian state, yet we know relatively little about its internal dynamics and particularities. The role of informal, personal, and unintentional ties has remained underexplored in most policy network studies, mainly because of the pluralist origin of that tradition. It is possible to use network analysis to expand this knowledge by developing mesolevel analysis of those processes. This article proposes an analytical framework for studying networks inside policy communities. This framework considers the stable and resilient patterns that characterize state institutions, especially in contexts of low institutionalization, particularly those found in Latin America and Brazil. The article builds on research on urban policies in Brazil to suggest that networks made of institutional and personal ties structure state organizations internally and insert them,into broader political scenarios. These networks, which I call state fabric, frame politics, influence public policies, and introduce more stability and predictability than the majority of the literature usually considers. They also form a specific power resource-positional power, associated with the positions that political actors occupy-that influences politics inside and around the state.

CARBON MARKET AND INSTITUTIONS: OPPORTUNITIES IN THE SEARCH OF A NEW MODEL FOR DEVELOPMENT

Seeking alternatives for the economic system to face the several crises it has gone through lately (electrical power, cultural, financing and technological) brought about a new market involving the Kyoto Protocol signatory countries: the carbon market. The present article aims at assessing the carbon market institutional issue in Brazil by identifying the risks and opportunities inherent to the institutional agent characteristics and to that market rules. The research methodology was bibliographic and based on the analysis of the Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (Comissao de Valores Mobiliarios and Bolsa Mercantil de Valores) contents. Its theoretical basis rests on concepts of the institution and the new institutional economy. The results show that in spite of the risks and institutional problems it involves, the carbon market is promising due to the opportunities create by new technologies and energies developed to achieve and sustain the capitalist system new cycle, addressed to produce a clean development.

On the impact of disproportional samples in credit scoring models: An application to a Brazilian bank data

Statistical methods have been widely employed to assess the capabilities of credit scoring classification models in order to reduce the risk of wrong decisions when granting credit facilities to clients. The predictive quality of a classification model can be evaluated based on measures such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, correlation coefficients and information theoretical measures, such as relative entropy and mutual information. In this paper we analyze the performance of a naive logistic regression model (Hosmer & Lemeshow, 1989) and a logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection model (Cramer, 2004) applied to simulated data. Also, as a case study, the methodology is illustrated on a data set extracted from a Brazilian bank portfolio. Our simulation results so far revealed that there is no statistically significant difference in terms of predictive capacity between the naive logistic regression models and the logistic regression with state-dependent sample selection models. However, there is strong difference between the distributions of the estimated default probabilities from these two statistical modeling techniques, with the naive logistic regression models always underestimating such probabilities, particularly in the presence of balanced samples. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Challenges for nursing education in Angola: the perception of nurse leaders affiliated with professional education institutions

Background: Angola is one of the African countries with the highest morbidity and mortality rates and a devastating lack of human resources for health, including nursing. The World Health Organization stimulates and takes technical cooperation initiatives for human resource education and training in health and education, with a view to the development of countries in the region. The aim in this study was to identify how nurses affiliated with nursing education institutions perceive the challenges nursing education is facing in Angola. Methods: After consulting the National Directory of Human Resources in Angola, the nurse leaders affiliated with professional nursing education institutions in Angola were invited to participate in the study by email. Data were collected in February 2009 through the focus group technique. The group of participants was focused on the central question: what are the challenges faced for nursing education in your country? To register and understand the information, besides the use of a recorder, the reporters elaborated an interpretative report. Data were coded using content analysis. Results: Fourteen nurses participated in the meeting, most of whom were affiliated with technical nursing education institutions. It was verified that the nurse leaders at technical and higher nursing education institutions in Angola face many challenges, mainly related to the lack of infrastructure, absence of trained human resources, bureaucratic problems to regularize the schools and lack of material resources. On the opposite, the solutions they present are predominantly centered on the valuation of nursing professionals, which implies cultural and attitude changes. Conclusions: Public health education policies need to be established in Angola, including action guidelines that permit effective nursing activities. Professional education institutions need further regularizations and nurses need to be acknowledged as key elements for the qualitative enhancement of health services in the country.

Masking environmental feedback : Misfits between institutions and ecosystems in Belize and Thailand

The thesis analyses relationships between ecological and social systems in the context of coastal ecosystems. It examines human impacts from resource extraction and addresses management and governance behind resource exploitation. The main premises are that a lack of ecological knowledge leads to poor ecosystem management and that the dichotomy between social and natural systems is an artificial one. The thesis illustrates the importance of basing resource management on the ecological conditions of the resource and its ecosystem. It also demonstrates the necessity of accounting for the human dimension in ecosystem management and the challenges of organising human actions for sustainable use of ecosystem services in the face of economic incentives that push users towards short-term extraction. Many Caribbean coral reefs have undergone a shift from coral to macroalgal domination. An experiment on Glovers Reef Atoll in Belize manually cleared patch reefs in a no-take zone and a fished zone (Papers I and II). The study hypothesised that overfishing has reduced herbivorous fish populations that control macroalgae growth. Overall, management had no significant effect on fish abundance and the impacts of the algal reduction were short-lived. This illustrated that the benefits of setting aside marine reserves in impacted environments should not be taken for granted. Papers III and IV studied the development of the lobster and conch fisheries in Belize, and the shrimp farming industry in Thailand respectively. These studies found that environmental feedback can be masked to give the impression of resource abundance through sequential exploitation. In both cases inadequate property rights contributed to this unsustainable resource use. The final paper (V) compared the responses to changes in the resource by the lobster fisheries in Belize and Maine in terms of institutions, organisations and their role in management. In contrast to Maine’s, the Belize system seems to lack social mechanisms for responding effectively to environmental feedback. The results illustrate the importance of organisational and institutional diversity that incorporate ecological knowledge, respond to ecosystem feedback and provide a social context for learning from and adapting to change.

"Water users must be efficient producers". Women's access to and use of land in Chókwè irrigation scheme, Mozambique

The irrigation scheme Eduardo Mondlane, situated in Chókwè District - in the Southern part of the Gaza province and within the Limpopo River Basin - is the largest in the country, covering approximately 30,000 hectares of land. Built by the Portuguese colonial administration in the 1950s to exploit the agricultural potential of the area through cash-cropping, after Independence it became one of Frelimo’s flagship projects aiming at the “socialization of the countryside” and at agricultural economic development through the creation of a state farm and of several cooperatives. The failure of Frelimo’s economic reforms, several infrastructural constraints and local farmers resistance to collective forms of production led to scheme to a state of severe degradation aggravated by the floods of the year 2000. A project of technical rehabilitation initiated after the floods is currently accompanied by a strong “efficiency” discourse from the managing institution that strongly opposes the use of irrigated land for subsistence agriculture, historically a major livelihood strategy for smallfarmers, particularly for women. In fact, the area has been characterized, since the end of the XIX century, by a stable pattern of male migration towards South African mines, that has resulted in an a steady increase of women-headed households (both de jure and de facto). The relationship between land reform, agricultural development, poverty alleviation and gender equality in Southern Africa is long debated in academic literature. Within this debate, the role of agricultural activities in irrigation schemes is particularly interesting considering that, in a drought-prone area, having access to water for irrigation means increased possibilities of improving food and livelihood security, and income levels. In the case of Chókwè, local governments institutions are endorsing the development of commercial agriculture through initiatives such as partnerships with international cooperation agencies or joint-ventures with private investors. While these business models can sometimes lead to positive outcomes in terms of poverty alleviation, it is important to recognize that decentralization and neoliberal reforms occur in the context of financial and political crisis of the State that lacks the resources to efficiently manage infrastructures such as irrigation systems. This kind of institutional and economic reforms risk accelerating processes of social and economic marginalisation, including landlessness, in particular for poor rural women that mainly use irrigated land for subsistence production. The study combines an analysis of the historical and geographical context with the study of relevant literature and original fieldwork. Fieldwork was conducted between February and June 2007 (where I mainly collected secondary data, maps and statistics and conducted preliminary visit to Chókwè) and from October 2007 to March 2008. Fieldwork methodology was qualitative and used semi-structured interviews with central and local Government officials, technical experts of the irrigation scheme, civil society organisations, international NGOs, rural extensionists, and water users from the irrigation scheme, in particular those women smallfarmers members of local farmers’ associations. Thanks to the collaboration with the Union of Farmers’ Associations of Chókwè, she has been able to participate to members’ meeting, to education and training activities addressed to women farmers members of the Union and to organize a group discussion. In Chókwè irrigation scheme, women account for the 32% of water users of the familiar sector (comprising plot-holders with less than 5 hectares of land) and for just 5% of the private sector. If one considers farmers’ associations of the familiar sector (a legacy of Frelimo’s cooperatives), women are 84% of total members. However, the security given to them by the land title that they have acquired through occupation is severely endangered by the use that they make of land, that is considered as “non efficient” by the irrigation scheme authority. Due to a reduced access to marketing possibilities and to inputs, training, information and credit women, in actual fact, risk to see their right to access land and water revoked because they are not able to sustain the increasing cost of the water fee. The myth of the “efficient producer” does not take into consideration the characteristics of inequality and gender discrimination of the neo-liberal market. Expecting small-farmers, and in particular women, to be able to compete in the globalized agricultural market seems unrealistic, and can perpetuate unequal gendered access to resources such as land and water.

Mortgage securitization and its credit risk control

This dissertation concentrate on the mortgage securitization and its credit risk, which are criticized as the main causes of the financial crisis. From the point of the veiw of mortgage's evolution, the nature, structure and function of mortgage has been radically changed, yet the mortgage law did not give appropriate response to this market change. Meanwhile, the U.S legilslations facilitating the mortgage securitization also have rotten the legal foundations for mortgage market self-regulation and sustained development. In contrast, the EU covered bond system has kept financial stability for 200 years' time, and their statutory approach has been proved to be able to control the credit risk and incentive problems very well, in combination of market self-regulation and public regulation. So the future reform should be directed to strengthen the market's capacity of self-regulation and improve the public regulation. For the development of mortgage securitization in China, it is suggested to introduce the EU covered bond system for the reason of the equilibrium between funding efficiency and financial stability.

Il microcredito in alcuni Paesi europei: strumento polimorfo tra inclusione sociale e sviluppo finanziario.

La tesi analizza il fenomeno del microcredito in Europa, approfondendo le cause che hanno reso necessaria l’introduzione di questo strumento finanziario anche in economie profondamente diverse da quella in cui ha avuto origine ed esamina le trasformazioni che lo strumento ha subito durante il suo processo di adattamento ai paesi evoluti. Lo studio esamina il microcredito in Francia, Inghilterra, Spagna e Germania, soffermandosi ad analizzare, in ognuno dei suddetti Stati, la disciplina giuridica adottata (qualora esistente), le istituzioni micro finanziarie esistenti, le caratteristiche del settore e le fonti di finanziamento. L’obiettivo dell’analisi è pertanto quello di comprendere come nei Paesi europei convivano contemporaneamente modelli di microcredito profondamente diversi, a seconda del contesto economico, politico e sociale nel quale trovano applicazione. La tesi si concentra ad analizzare il microcredito in Italia, valutando il rapporto esistente tra questo strumento finanziario ed il problema dell’esclusione sociale, dell’immigrazione e dell’usura. Lo studio approfondisce, inoltre, la disciplina giuridica del microcredito adottata in Italia dopo le recenti modifiche introdotte dal D.lgs n. 169/2012. Il lavoro si sofferma ad analizzare, altresì, se e quali interventi, a livello internazionale ed europeo, sono stati programmati per dare al microcredito una cornice legislativa unitaria e per promuoverne lo sviluppo. L’attività di ricerca infine è volta a valutare, sulla base delle esperienze descritte dalla letteratura del settore, gli effetti prodotti dal microcredito, nonché ad approfondire alcune problematiche comuni ai programmi adottati negli Stati europei, quali la sostenibilità delle istituzioni di microcredito, la dipendenza dai sussidi e l’applicazione di tassi di interesse elevati. La tesi si conclude con l’analisi del rapporto esistente tra microcredito e crisi finanziaria, in un periodo storico in cui le politiche per l’occupazione ed il sostegno alla piccola impresa sono fondamentali per stimolare la ripresa economica.

Novita' sul mercato dei sistemi di pagamento: Gli istituti di pagamento e gli istituti di moneta elettronica

La presente trattazione analizza le novità normative apportate dalle recenti direttive europee sui servizi di pagamento e sulla moneta elettronica (rispettivamente la direttiva 2007/64/CE, c.c. Payment Services Directive o PSD, e la direttiva 2009/110/CE, detta Electronic Money Directive 2 o EMD2). Al fine di incrementare la competitività dei servizi di pagamento, sono stati introdotti nuovi prestatori di servizi di pagamento, non bancari, gli Istituti di Pagamento (IP) e gli Istituti di Moneta Elettronica (IMEL), a cui è stata attribuita la possibilità di far ricorso al contratto di conto di pagamento per la gestione dei servizi di pagamento con possibilità di finanziamento agli utenti. La prima parte della presente trattazione è dedicata alla configurazione giuridica dei nuovi prestatori di servizi di pagamento, influenzante la diffusione dei pagamenti digitali e della moneta elettronica. La seconda parte è rivolta alla ricostruzione giuridica del conto di pagamento, contratto – tipo per la gestione in conto dei servizi di pagamento, ed all’analisi delle modalità di erogazione dei finanziamenti agli utenti. Le direttive predette hanno inoltre attribuito ad IP ed IMEL la facoltà di emettere le carte di pagamento a spendibilità generalizzata, ossia carte di debito e carte di credito. In quanto abilitati all’emissione di moneta elettronica, gli IMEL possono inoltre emettere i c.d. borsellini di moneta elettronica, cioè i dispositivi di memorizzazione e di movimentazione della moneta elettronica. Nella terza parte della trattazione vengono, pertanto, presi in analisi la natura di tali strumenti di pagamento e le differenze intercorrenti rispetto agli affini strumenti bancari. In particolare, ampio spazio è dedicato alla ricostruzione giuridica dei borsellini di moneta elettronica, la cui diffusione tra gli utenti potrebbe avere l’effetto di favorire la progressiva digitalizzazione dei pagamenti e la realizzazione della cashless society.

Determining the effect of regulation on Microfinance Institutions Financial Self-Sustainability. A Cross-Country Comparison

Microfinance is an initiative which seeks to address financial inclusion, micro-entrepreneurship, and poverty reduction without over burdening governments. However, the current sector of microfinance is still heavily dependent on the good will of donors. The over-reliance on donations is a feature which threatens the long term sustainability of microfinance. Much has been written about this reliance, but research to date hasn’t empirically examined the effect of regulation as a mediator. This is a critical area of study because regulation directly affects Microfinance Institutions’ (MFI) innovation, and innovation is what shapes the future of microfinance. This thesis considers the role that regulation plays in affecting MFI’s and their ability to innovate in products, services and long-term sustainability via access to capital. Interviews were undertaken with stakeholders in MFI’s, NGO’s, Self-Regulating Bodies, and Regulators in India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. This thesis discusses findings from interviews in relation to regulatory measures regarding financial self-sustainability of MFI’s. The conclusions of this thesis have implications for policy and inform the microfinance literature.