Social Inclusion of Older People at Local Level:The Role and Contribution of the CDBs - Conference Proceedings

This is a publication of The National Council on Ageing and Older People The Conference took place on October 3, 2005 . It attracted almost 250 delegates from across the statutory, voluntary and private sectors, and from every county. The Conference provided the opportunity for delegates to focus on the issue of social inclusion of older people at local level and the challenges it presents. It also gave us the opportunity to examine the issue in the context of work done at the international and national levels as well as work done at local level. Read the Report (PDF, 317kb)

Reduced physical activity level and cardiorespiratory fitness in children with chronic diseases.

We aimed to compare physical activity level and cardiorespiratory fitness in children with different chronic diseases, such as type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), obesity (OB) and juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA), with healthy controls (HC). We performed a cross-sectional study including 209 children: OB: n = 45, T1DM: n = 48, JIA: n = 31, and HC: n = 85. Physical activity level was assessed by accelerometer and cardiorespiratory fitness by a treadmill test. ANOVA, linear regressions and Pearson correlations were used. Children with chronic diseases had reduced total daily physical activity counts (T1DM 497 +/- 54 cpm, p = 0.003; JIA 518 +/- 28, p < 0.001, OB 590 +/- 25, p = 0.003) and cardiorespiratory fitness (JIA 39.3 +/- 1.7, p = 0.001, OB 41.7 +/- 1.2, p = 0.020) compared to HC (668 +/- 35 cpm; 45.3 +/- 0.9 ml kg(-1) min(-1), respectively). Only 60.4% of HC, 51.6% of OB, 38.1% of JIA and 38.5% of T1DM children met the recommended daily 60 min of moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Low cardiorespiratory fitness was associated with female gender and low daily PA. Children with chronic diseases had reduced physical activity and cardiorespiratory fitness. As the benefits of PA on health have been well demonstrated during growth, it should be encouraged in those children to prevent a reduction of cardiorespiratory fitness and the development of comorbidities.

Kubrick i Losey : dues mirades crítiques sobre la Primera Guerra Mundial. Estudi comparatiu entre 'Paths of lory' i 'King and Country'

Estudi comparatiu entre 'Paths of Glory'(S.Kubrick) i 'King and Country' (J.Losey) : Dos films crítics sobre la Primera Guerra Mundial amb una temàtica molt similar però que aporten un punt de vista diferent.

An experimental study on the shallow-level migmatization of ferrogabbros from the Fuerteventura Basal Complex, Canary Islands

Spectacular shallow-level migmatization of ferrogabbroic rocks occurs in a metamorphic contact aureole of a gabbroic pluton of the Tierra Mala massif (TM) on Fuerteventura (Canary Islands). In order to improve our knowledge of the low pressure melting behavior of gabbroic rocks and to constrain the conditions of migmatization of the TM gabbros, we performed partial melting experiments on a natural ferrogabbro, which is assumed as protolith of the migmatites. The experiments were performed in an internally heated pressure vessel (IHPV) at 200 MPa, 930-1150 degreesC at relatively oxidizing conditions. Distinct amounts of water were added to the charge. From 930 to 1000 degreesC, the observed experimental phases are plagioclase (An(60-70)), clinopyroxene, amphibole (titanian magnesiohastingsites), two Fe-Ti oxides, and a basaltic, K-poor melt. Above 1000 degreesC, amphibole is no longer stable. The first melts are very rich in non-native plagioclase (>70 wt.%). This indicates that at the beginning of partial melting plagioclase is the major phase which is consumed to produce melt. In the experiments, plagioclase is stable up to high temperatures (1060 degreesC) showing increasing An content with temperature. This is not compatible with the natural migmatites, in which An-rich plagioclase is absent in the melanosomes, while amphibole is stable. Our results show that the partial melting of the natural rocks cannot be regarded as an ``in-situ'' process that occurred in a closed system. Considerable amounts of alkalis probably transported by water-rich fluids, derived from the mafic pluton underplating the TM gabbro, were necessary to drive the melting reaction out of the stability range of plagioclase. A partial melting experiment with a migmatite gabbro showing typical ``in-situ'' textures as starting material supports this assumption. Crystallization experiments performed at 1000 degreesC on a glass of the fitised ferrogabbro with different water contents added to the charge show that generally high water activities could be achieved (crystallization of amphibole), independently of the bulk water content, even in a system with very low initial bulk water content (0.3 wt.%). Increasing water contents produce plagioclase richer in An, reduces the modal proportion of plagioclase in the crystallizing assemblage and extends the melt fraction. High melt fractions of >30 wt.% could only be observed in systems with high bulk water contents (> - 2 wt.%). This indicates that the migmatites were generated under water-rich conditions (probably water-saturated), since those migmatites, which are characterized as ``in-situ'' formations, show generally high amounts of leucosomes (>30 wt.%). (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Copeptin, a stable peptide derived from the vasopressin precursor, correlates with the individual stress level.

BACKGROUND: During stress, vasopressin is a potent synergistic factor of CRH as a hypothalamic stimulator of the HPA axis. The measurements of CRH and vasopressin levels are cumbersome because of their instability and short half-life. Copeptin is a more stable peptide stoichiometrically released from the same precursor molecule. The aim of our study was to compare copeptin and cortisol levels in different stress situations. METHODS: Three groups of patients with increasing stress levels were investigated: a) healthy controls without apparent stress (n=20), b) hospitalized medical patients with moderate stress (n=25) and c) surgical patients 30 minutes after extubation, with maximal stress (n=29). In all patients we assessed cortisol and copeptin levels. Copeptin levels were measured with a new sandwich immunoassay. RESULTS: Cortisol levels in controls were (median, IQ range, 486 [397-588] nmol/L), not significantly different as compared to medical patients (438 [371-612] nmol/L, p=0.69). Cortisol levels in surgical patients after extubation were higher (744 [645-1062] nmol/L p<0.01 vs controls and medical patients). Copeptin levels in controls were 4.3 [3.2-5.5] pmol/L, which was lower as compared to medical patients (17.5 [6.4-24.1], p<0.001) and surgical patients after extubation (67.5 [37.8-110.0] pmol/L, p<0.001). The correlation between copeptin levels and cortisol was r=0.46, p<0.001. CONCLUSION: Copeptin is a novel marker of the individual stress level. It more subtly mirrors moderate stress as compared to cortisol values.

Evaluation of cholinesterase level in an endemic population exposed to malathion suspension formulation as a vector control measure

The manuscript describes a study on the blood cholinesterase (ChE) level in an exposed population at different interval of time after spraying with malathion suspension (SRES) use for kala-azar vector control in an endemic area of Bihar, India. The toxicity of a 5% malathion formulation in the form of a slow release emulsified suspension (SRES) was assessed by measuring serum ChE levels in spraymen and in the exposed population.The study showed a significant decrease in ChE levels in the spraymen (p < 0.01) after one week of spraying and in exposed population one week and one month after of spraying (p < 0.01), but was still within the normal range of ChE concentration, one year after spraying, the ChE concentration in the exposed population was the same as prior to spraying (p > 0.01). On no occasion was the decrease in ChE level alarming. A parallel examination of the clinical status also showed the absence of any over toxicity or any behavioural changes in the exposed population. Hence, it may be concluded that 5% malathion slow release formulation, SRES, is a safe insecticide for use as a vector control measure in endemic areas of kala-azar in Bihar, India so long as good personal protection for spraymen is provided to minimize absorption and it can substitute the presently used traditional DDT spray.

Weigh2go: A Peripatetic Level 1 Weight Management Service

The aim of this intervention is to increase the accessibility of appropriate evidence based support to people who are clinically obese to enable them to make lifestyle changes that will lead to weight loss. Objectives1. Identify patients whose lifestyle put them at risk of obesity and poor health outcomes and provide them with advice and support along with signposting to specific services and activities. 2. Identify patients who are overweight or obese and offer them a structured multi-component programme of support for them to loose weight. 3. Through the use of software collect data to monitor outcomes at individual and practice levels.

A Study of the Epidemiology of AIDS in Ireland and an Evaluation of an AIDS Education Programme in Second-level Schools

Second-level school students have been identified by the Minister for health as a priority group for education on AIDS. An education programme was accordingly initiated in 1988 in Community Care Area 1 in South county Dublin. This report evaluates this education intervention by means of pre- and post- intervention questionnaires. The questionnaire examined knowledge and attitudes of students relevant to AIDS. The results showed that the level of knowledge of students living in this area was high prior to intervention. The education programme succeeded in improving some aspects of knowledge and also influenced some attitudes of the students. A study of the epidemiology of Aids in Ireland reveals that the epidemic is at a relatively early stage with a consequent rapid doubling time of 9-10 months. In comparison with most developed countries Ireland has a high proportion of AIDS cases occurring among intravenous drug abusers and directly related to this a high number of HIV infected children. Examination of the literature reveals that behaviour change has occurred most noticeably among the homosexual/bisexual risk group. There is some evidence that the comprehensive programmes can achieve change in the behaviour of intravenous drug abusers. There are very few reports linking behaviour change among adolescents and young adults to education programmes. Much of the available literature relates to changes in knowledge and attitudes. International recommendations on the nature of the ideal health education intervention on AIDS are reviewed. The importance of a comprehensive health education programme which incorporates AIDS education and which commences early in youth is noted. The role of the community physician in relation to education programmes and other aspects of monitoring and management of the AIDS epidemic is discussed.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Alcohol-related and hepatocellular cancer deaths by country of birth in England and Wales: analysis of mortality and census data.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of and mortality from alcohol-related conditions, liver disease and hepatocellular cancer (HCC) are increasing in the UK. We compared mortality rates by country of birth to explore potential inequalities and inform clinical and preventive care. DESIGN: Analysis of mortality for people aged 20 years and over using the 2001 Census data and death data from 1999 and 2001-2003. SETTING: England and Wales. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for alcohol-related deaths and HCC. RESULTS: Mortality from alcohol-related deaths (23 502 deaths) was particularly high for people born in Ireland (SMR for men [M]: 236, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 219-254; SMR for women [F]: 212, 95% CI: 191-235) and Scotland (SMR-M: 187, CI: 173-213; SMR-F 182, CI: 163-205) and men born in India (SMR-M: 161, CI: 144-181). Low alcohol-related mortality was found in women born in other countries and men born in Bangladesh, Middle East, West Africa, Pakistan, China and Hong Kong, and the West Indies. Similar mortality patterns were observed by country of birth for alcoholic liver disease and other liver diseases. Mortality from HCC (8266 deaths) was particularly high for people born in Bangladesh (SMR-M: 523, CI: 380-701; SMR-F: 319, CI: 146-605), China and Hong Kong (SMR-M: 492, CI: 168-667; SMR-F: 323, CI: 184-524), West Africa (SMR-M: 440, CI, 308-609; SMR-F: 319, CI: 165-557) and Pakistan (SMR-M: 216, CI: 113-287; SMR-F: 215, CI: 133-319). CONCLUSIONS: These findings show persistent differences in mortality by country of birth for both alcohol-related and HCC deaths and have important clinical and public health implications. New policy, research and practical action are required to address these differences.This resource was contributed by The National Documentation Centre on Drug Use.

Correlating the end-Triassic mass extinction and flood basalt volcanism at the 100 ka level

New high-precision U/Pb geochronology from volcanic ashes shows that the Triassic-Jurassic boundary and end-Triassic biological crisis from two independent marine stratigraphic sections correlate with the onset of terrestrial flood volcanism in the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province to <150 ka. This narrows the correlation between volcanism and mass extinction by an order of magnitude for any such catastrophe in Earth history. We also show that a concomitant drop and rise in sea level and negative delta C-13 spike in the very latest Triassic occurred locally in <290 ka. Such rapid sea-level fluctuations on a global scale require that global cooling and glaciation were closely associated with the end-Triassic extinction and potentially driven by Central Atlantic Magmatic Province volcanism.

Blood glucose level on postoperative day 1 is predictive of adverse outcomes after cardiovascular surgery.

AIM: Hyperglycaemia is now a recognized predictive factor of morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). For this reason, we aimed to evaluate the postoperative management of glucose control in patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery, and to assess the impact of glucose levels on in-hospital mortality and morbidity. METHODS: This was a retrospective study investigating the association between postoperative blood glucose and outcomes, including death, post-surgical complications, and length of stay in the intensive care unit (ICU) and in hospital. RESULTS: A total of 642 consecutive patients were enrolled into the study after cardiovascular surgery (CABG, carotid endarterectomy and bypass in the lower limbs). Patients' mean age was 68+/-10 years, and 74% were male. In-hospital mortality was 5% in diabetic patients vs 2% in non-diabetic patients (OR: 1.66, P=0.076). Having blood glucose levels in the upper quartile range (> or =8.8 mmol/L) on postoperative day 1 was independently associated with death (OR: 10.16, P=0.0002), infectious complications (OR: 1.76, P=0.04) and prolonged ICU stay (OR: 3.10, P<0.0001). Patients presenting with three or more hypoglycaemic episodes (<4.1 mmol/L) had increased rates of mortality (OR: 9.08, P<0.0001) and complications (OR: 8.57, P<0.0001). CONCLUSION: Glucose levels greater than 8.8 mmol/L on postoperative day 1 and having three or more hypoglycaemic episodes in the postoperative period were predictive of mortality and morbidity among patients undergoing cardiovascular surgery. This suggests that a multidisciplinary approach may be able to achieve better postoperative blood glucose control.

DNA evidence of Trypanosoma cruzi in the Chilean wild vector Mepraia spinolai (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)

Molecular evidence showed 46.2% of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in Mepraia spinolai insects from North-Central Chile, which is significantly higher than previous reports of up to 26% by microscopic observation. Our results show similar infection levels among nymphal stages, ranging from 38.3 to 54.1%, indicating that younger nymphs could be as important as older ones in parasite transmission. A cautionary note must be stressed to indicate the potential role of M. spinolai in transmitting T. cruzi in country areas due to the high infection level detected by molecular analysis.

Health Inequality Profiles 2008 - MSOA level data (v2)

Using mortality and population data from 2001 to 2007 DSRs and life expectancy were calculated for all Middle Layer Super Output Areas in the East of England.

Uncertainty about the true source. A note on the likelihood ratio at the activity level.

This paper focuses on likelihood ratio based evaluations of fibre evidence in cases in which there is uncertainty about whether or not the reference item available for analysis - that is, an item typically taken from the suspect or seized at his home - is the item actually worn at the time of the offence. A likelihood ratio approach is proposed that, for situations in which certain categorical assumptions can be made about additionally introduced parameters, converges to formula described in existing literature. The properties of the proposed likelihood ratio approach are analysed through sensitivity analyses and discussed with respect to possible argumentative implications that arise in practice.