Ukrainian economy on the verge of recession. OSW Commentary No. 96, 2012-11-21

In the third quarter of 2012, Ukraine’s economy recorded negative growth (-1.3%) for the first time since its 2009 economic crisis. Q4 GDP is projected to suffer a further decline, bringing Ukraine into formal recession. In addition to the worsening macroeconomic indicators, Ukraine is also facing a series of concomitant economic problems: a growing trade deficit, industrial decline, shrinking foreign exchange reserves, and the weakening of the hryvnia. Poor economic growth is expected to result in lower than projected budget revenues, which in turn could lead to the sequestration of the budget in December. The decline evident across the key economic indicators in the second half of 2012 brings to a close a period of relative economic stability and two years of economic growth, which had been seen as a significant personal achievement of President Viktor Yanukovych and the ruling Party of Regions. The health of the Ukrainian economy largely depends on the state of the country’s export- -oriented industries. The current economic forecasts for foreign markets are not very optimistic. It is impossible to determine whether the current economic downturn is likely to be merely temporary or whether it heralds the onset of a prolonged economic crisis. The limited capacity to deal with the growing economic problems may mean that Kiev will need to seek financial support from abroad. This is particularly significant with regard to external debt servicing, since in 2013 Ukraine will need to pay back around 9 billion USD, including over 5.5 billion USD to the International Monetary Fund. In order to overcome the recession and stabilise public finances, the government may be forced to take a series of unpopular measures, including raising the price of natural gas and utilities. These measures have been stipulated by the IMF as a condition of further financial assistance and the disbursement of the 12 billion USD stabilisation loan granted to Ukraine in July 2010. The only alternative for Western loans and economic reforms appears to be financial support from Russia. The price for Moscow’s help might however turn out to be very high, and precipitate a turn in Kiev’s foreign policy towards a gradual re-integration of former Soviet republics under Moscow-led geopolitical projects.

Iranian-Saudi tensions: the energy dimension. EPC Policy Brief, 9 February 2016

Following the execution of Saudi Shiite cleric Nimr Baqer al-Nimr, the deep rooted rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia entered a new phase in January 2016. While the main objective for both countries still is regional hegemony, the Iranian-Saudi competition takes many different forms and shapes, and also extends into the field of energy. In this Policy Brief, David Ramin Jalilvand gives a detailed analysis of the energy-related aspects of the Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry and its possible consequences for Europe’s energy market; both countries hold giant hydrocarbon reserves, so European energy will probably be affected by their competition in several regards; increased oil supplies will be available for the European market, while the cycle of low oil prices will be prolonged. According to Jalilvand, this is a mixed blessing; Europe’s energy import bill will be reduced, but its indigenous production will suffer, while Russia’s role in European natural gas will only continue to grow.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.

(Table 2) Methane to ethane ratio, and d13C-methane at DSDP Hole 76-533

Natural gas hydrates are clathrates in which water molecules form a crystalline framework that includes and is stabilized by natural gas (mainly methane) at appropriate conditions of high pressures and low temperatures. The conditions for the formation of gas hydrates are met within continental margin sediments below water depths greater than about 500 m where the supply of methane is sufficient to stabilize the gas hydrate. Observations on DSDP Leg 11 suggested the presence of gas hydrates in sediments of the Blake Outer Ridge. Leg 76 coring and sampling confirms that, indeed, gas hydrates are present there. Geochemical evidence for gas hydrates in sediment of the Blake Outer Ridge includes (1) high concentrations of methane, (2) a sediment sample with thin, matlike layers of white crystals that released a volume of gas twenty times greater than its volume of pore fluid, (3) a molecular distribution of hydrocarbon gases that excluded hydrocarbons larger than isobutane, (4) results from pressure core barrel experiments, and (5) pore-fluid chemistry. The molecular composition of the hydrocarbons in these gas hydrates and the isotopic composition of the methane indicate that the gas is derived mainly from microbiological processes operating on the organic matter within the sediment. Although gas hydrates apparently are widespread on the Blake Outer Ridge, they probably are not of great economic significance as a potential, unconventional, energy resource or as an impermeable cap for trapping upwardly migrating gas at Site 533.

(Table 1) Crystal sizes of measured samples

Due to experimental difficulties grain size distributions of gas hydrate crystallites are largely unknown in natural samples. For the first time, we were able to determine grain size distributions of six natural gas hydrates for samples retrieved from the Gulf of Mexico and from Hydrate Ridge offshore Oregon from varying depths. High-energy synchrotron radiation provides high photon fluxes as well as high penetration depth and thus allows for investigation of bulk sediment samples. The gas hydrate crystallites appear to be (log-) normally distributed in the natural samples and to be of roughly globular shape. The mean grain sizes are in the range from 300-600 µm with a tendency for bigger grains to occur in greater depth, possibly indicating a difference in the formation age. Laboratory produced methane hydrate, starting from ice and aged for 3 weeks, shows half a log-normal curve with a mean value of ~40 µm. This one order-of-magnitude smaller grain sizes suggests that care must be taken when transposing grain-size sensitive (petro-)physical data from laboratory-made gas hydrates to natural settings.

(Table 1) Crystal sizes of measured samples from the Bush Hill region in the Gulf of Mexico and from ODP Leg 204 at the Hydrate Ridge offshore Oregon

The grain sizes of gas hydrate crystallites are largely unknown in natural samples. Single grains are hardly detectable with electron or optical microscopy. For the first time, we have used high-energy synchrotron diffraction to determine grain sizes of six natural gas hydrates retrieved from the Bush Hill region in the Gulf of Mexico and from ODP Leg 204 at the Hydrate Ridge offshore Oregon from varying depth between 1 and 101 metres below seafloor. High-energy synchrotron radiation provides high photon fluxes as well as high penetration depth and thus allows for investigation of bulk sediment samples. Gas hydrate grain sizes were measured at the Beam Line BW 5 at the HASYLAB/Hamburg. A 'moving area detector method', originally developed for material science applications, was used to obtain both spatial and orientation information about gas hydrate grains within the sample. The gas hydrate crystal sizes appeared to be (log-)normally distributed in the natural samples. All mean grain sizes lay in the range from 300 to 600 µm with a tendency for bigger grains to occur in greater depth. Laboratory-produced methane hydrate, aged for 3 weeks, showed half a log-normal curve with a mean grain size value of c. 40 µm. The grains appeared to be globular shaped.

(Table 1) Gravity and pressure within the Sleipner area relative to ones at the reference station in 2002 and 2005

At Sleipner, CO2 is being separated from natural gas and injected into an underground saline aquifer for environmental purposes. Uncertainty in the aquifer temperature leads to uncertainty in the in situ density of CO2. In this study, gravity measurements were made over the injection site in 2002 and 2005 on top of 30 concrete benchmarks on the seafloor in order to constrain the in situ CO2 density. The gravity measurements have a repeatability of 4.3 µGal for 2003 and 3.5 µGal for 2005. The resulting time-lapse uncertainty is 5.3 µGal. Unexpected benchmark motions due to local sediment scouring contribute to the uncertainty. Forward gravity models are calculated based on both 3D seismic data and reservoir simulation models. The time-lapse gravity observations best fit a high temperature forward model based on the time-lapse 3D seismics, suggesting that the average in situ CO2 density is about to 530kg/m**3. Uncertainty in determining the average density is estimated to be ±65 kg/m**3 (95% confidence), however, this does not include uncertainties in the modeling. Additional seismic surveys and future gravity measurements will put better constraints on the CO2 density and continue to map out the CO2 flow.

(Table 1) Carbon, hydrocarbons and observations at DSDP Holes 67-497 and 67-498A

Gas hydrates are icelike materials that form when specific conditions of temperature, pressure, and gas composition are simultaneously satisfied. Among the first descriptions of gas hydrates under natural conditions was that of Hammerschmidt (1940), who found them in pipelines used to transport natural gas. Milton (1976) indicates that conditions are suitable for the presence of gas hydrates in areas affected by permafrost and cites studies suggesting that large quantities of gas exist in hydrate form.

Outer continental shelf sale 40--inadequate data used to select and evaluate lands to lease, Department of the Interior : report to the Congress /

"B-118678."

Preliminary evaluation of wind and wave effects at potential LNG terminal sites, State of California : appendix A : an evaluation of the relative wave climate at five onshore LNG sites considering island influences and topographic effects : final report /

"April 1978."

Energy Policy Act transportation rate study : availability of data and studies.

"DOE/EIA-0571."

Liquefied gaseous fuels safety and environmental control assessment program : a status report /

May 1979.

The feasibility of methods and systems for reducing LNG tanker fire hazards /

"DOE/EV/04734-T1."

Investigation of concentration of economic power; monograph no. 1[-43]

Printed for the use of the Temporary National Economic Committee.

Pipeline accident summary report /

Description based on: NTSB/PAR-98/02/SUM; title from cover.