931 resultados para Competing-risk analyses
Resumo:
OBJECTIVE: The goal of this study was to estimate the associations between outdoor air pollution and cardiovascular hospital admissions for the elderly. DESIGN: Associations were assessed using the case-crossover method for seven cities: Auckland and Christchurch, New Zealand; and Brisbane, Canberra, Melbourne, Perth, and Sydney Australia. Results were combined across cities using a random-effects meta-analysis and stratified for two adult age groups: 15-64 years and >= 65 years of age (elderly). Pollutants considered were nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, daily measures of particulate matter (PM) and ozone. Where multiple pollutant associations were found, a matched case-control analysis was used to identify the most consistent association. RESULTS: In the elderly, all pollutants except 03 were significantly associated with five categories or cardiovascular disease admissions. No associations were found for arrhythmia and stroke. For a 0.9-ppm increase in CO, there were significant increases in elderly hospital admissions for total cardiovascular disease (2.2%), all cardiac disease (2.8%), cardiac failure (6.0%), ischemic heart disease (2.3%), and myocardial infarction (2.9%). There was some heterogeneity between cities, possibly due to differences in humidity and the percentage of elderly people. In matched analyses, CO had the most consistent association. CONCLUSIONS. The results suggest that air pollution arising from common emission sources for CO, NO2, and PM (e.g., motor vehicle exhausts) has significant associations with adult cardiovascular hospital admissions, especially in the elderly, at air pollution concentrations below normal health guidelines. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL AND PROFESSIONAL PRACTICE: Elderly populations in Australia need to be protected from air pollution arising from outdoor sources to reduce cardiovascular disease.
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Methotrexate is eliminated almost entirely by the kidneys. The risk of methotrexate toxicity is therefore increased in patients with poor renal function, most likely as a result of drug accumulation. Declining renal function with age may thus be an important predictor of toxicity to methotrexate. Up to 60% of all patients who receive methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) discontinue taking it because of adverse effects, most of which occur during the first year of therapy. Gastrointestinal complications are the most common adverse effects of methotrexate, but hepatotoxicity, haematological toxicity, pulmonary toxicity, lymphoproliferative disorders and exacerbation of rheumatic nodules have all been reported, Decreased renal function as a result of disease and/or aging appears to be an important determinant of hepatic, lymphoproli ferative and haematological toxicity, Concomitant use of low doses of folic acid has been recommended as an approach to limiting toxicity. Interactions between methotrexate and several nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been reported, but they may not be clinically significant. However, caution is advised in the use of such combinations in patients with reduced renal function. More serious toxicities (e.g. pancytopenia) may result when other inhibitors of folate utilisation [e.g. cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole)] or inhibitors of renal tubular secretion (e.g. probenecid) are combined with methotrexate. Before starting low dose methotrexate therapy in patients with RA, a full blood count, liver function tests, renal function tests and chest radiography should be performed. Blood counts and liver function tests should be repeated at regular intervals. Therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate has also been suggested as a means of limiting toxicity. Patients with RA usually respond very favourably to low dose methotrexate therapy, and the probability of patients continuing their treatment beyond 5 years is greater than for other slow-acting antirheumatic drugs. Thus, given its sustained clinical utility and relatively predictable toxicity profile, low dose methotrexate is a useful addition to the therapy of RA.
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To describe incidence rates and risk factors associated with external ventricular drain (EVD)-related infections at a tertiary Brazilian teaching hospital. The patient cohort consisted of all patients at a major teaching hospital in Brazil with an EVD during the period 1 April 2007 to 30 June 2008 (15 months). Patients were followed up for 30 days after catheter removal. According to the Center for Diseases Control and Prevention criteria for meningitis/ventriculitis, all of the central nervous system (CNS) infections that occurred during this period could be considered to be meningitis or ventriculitis related to EVD placement. Infection rates were calculated using different denominators, such as (1) per patient (incidence), (2) per procedure, and (3) per 1,000 catheter-days (drain-associated infection rate). Patient demographic data, medical history of underlying diseases, antibiotic prophylaxis usage, American Society of Anesthesiologists Score classification, duration of surgery and hospitalization, length of time the EVD was in place, and overall mortality were evaluated during the study period. A logistic regression model was developed to identify factors associated with infection. A total of 119 patients, 130 EVD procedures, and 839 catheter-days were evaluated. The incidence of infection was 18.3%, the infection rate was 16.9% per procedure, and the drain-associated infection rate was 22.4 per 1,000 catheter-days; 77% of the infections were caused by Gram-negative micro-organisms. Only 75% of patients received antibiotic prophylaxis. The infection rate increased with length of the hospital stay. The length of time the catheter was in place was the only independent risk factor associated with infection (p = 0.0369). The incidence of EVD-related infections is high in our hospital, Gram-negative micro-organisms were the most frequent causal agents identified and length of time that the catheter was in place contributed to the infection rate.
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Multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2 is characterized by germline mutations in RET. For exon 10, comprehensive molecular and corresponding phenotypic data are scarce. The International RET Exon 10 Consortium, comprising 27 centers from 15 countries, analyzed patients with RET exon 10 mutations for clinical-risk profiles. Presentation, age-dependent penetrance, and stage at presentation of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC), pheochromocytoma, and hyperparathyroidism were studied. A total of 340 subjects from 103 families, age 4-86, were registered. There were 21 distinct single nucleotide germline mutations located in codons 609 (45 subjects), 611 (50), 618 (94), and 620 (151). MTC was present in 263 registrants, pheochromocytoma in 54, and hyperparathyroidism in 8 subjects. Of the patients with MTC, 53% were detected when asymptomatic, and among those with pheochromocytoma, 54%. Penetrance for MTC was 4% by age 10, 25% by 25, and 80% by 50. Codon-associated penetrance by age 50 ranged from 60% (codon 611) to 86% (620). More advanced stage and increasing risk of metastases correlated with mutation in codon position (609-620) near the juxtamembrane domain. Our data provide rigorous bases for timing of premorbid diagnosis and personalized treatment/prophylactic procedure decisions depending on specific RET exon 10 codons affected. Hum Mutat 32:51-58, 2011. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Introduction. Hepatic steatosis due to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease is associated with obesity, dyslipidemia, insulin resistance, and type 2 diabetes. The Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC) is a prognostic screening tool to detect people at risk for type 2 diabetes without the use of any blood test. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether FINDRISC can also be used to screen for the presence of hepatic steatosis. Patients and methods. Steatosis was determined by ultrasound. The study sample consisted of 821 non-diabetic subjects without previous hepatic disease; 81% were men (mean age 45 +/- 9 years) and 19% women (mean age 41 +/- 10 years). Results. Steatosis was present in 44% of men and 10% of women. The odds ratio for one unit increase in the FINDRISC associated with the risk of steatosis was 1.30 (95% CI 1.25-1.35), similar for men and women. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve for steatosis was 0.80 (95% CI 0.77-0.83); 0.80 in men (95% CI 0.77-0.83) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.73-0.93) in women. Conclusions. Our data suggest that the FINDRISC could be a useful primary screening tool for the presence of steatosis.
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Non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NS CL/P) is a complex disease in which heritability estimates vary widely depending on the population studied. To evaluate the importance of genetic contribution to NS CL/P in the Brazilian population, we conducted a study with 1,042 families from five different locations (Santarem, Fortaleza, Barbalha, Maceio, and Rio de Janeiro). We also evaluated the role of consanguinity and ethnic background. The proportion of familial cases varied significantly across locations, with the highest values found in Santarem (44%) and the lowest in Maceio (23%). Heritability estimates showed a higher genetic contribution to NS CL/P in Barbalha (85%), followed by Santarem (71%), Rio de Janeiro (70%), Fortaleza (64%), and Maceio (45%). Ancestry was not correlated with the occurrence of NS CL/P or with the variability in heritability. Only in Rio de Janeiro was the coefficient of inbreeding significantly larger in NS CL/P families than in the local population. Recurrence risk for the total sample was approximately 1.5-1.6%, varying according to the location studied (0.6-0.7% in Maceio to 2.2-2.8% in Barbalha). Our findings show that the degree of genetic contribution to NS CL/P varies according to the geographic region studied, and this difference cannot be attributed to consanguinity or ancestry. These findings suggest that Barbalha is a promising region for genetic studies. The data presented here will be useful in interpreting results from molecular analyses and show that care must be taken when pooling samples from different populations for association studies. (C) 2011 Wiley-Liss, Inc.
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Aim: To evaluate percutaneous cryotherapy as a primary treatment option for prostate cancer, comparing different risk groups. Patients and Methods: Forty-seven prostate cryoablation procedures were performed on 44 patients. Patients median age was 70.9, and average pretreatment PSA of 13.8 ng/dl. Patients were divided into low-risk (13 patients), high-risk (24 patients) and radiation failure patients (7 patients). The follow-up period ranged from 18 to 60 months (median 41 months). Results: In the low-risk group, we found after 12 and 24 months of follow-up, 92 and 86% of patients free of PSA relapse (PSA < 1 ng/ml), respectively. In the high-risk group, the PSA failure was 39 and 52.9%. For the radiation failure group, 86 and 71.4% of patients had PSA below 1 ng/dl. At 48 months of follow-up, 80% of the low-risk patients, 42.8% of the high-risk group and 71.4% of the radiation failure group were free of PSA relapse. The complication rates were low, with 13% of urinary incontinence and no cases of rectal injury. Conclusion: Prostate cryoablation is a viable and promising minimally invasive alternative for localized or locally advanced prostate cancer patients. Copyright (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.
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The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.
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Biologic valve re-replacement was examined in a series of 1343 patients who underwent aortic valve replacement at The Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, with a cryopreserved or 4 degrees C stored allograft valve or a xenograft valve, A parametric model approach was used to simultaneously model the competing risks of death without re-replacement and re-replacement before death, One hundred eleven patients underwent a first re-replacement for a variety of reasons (69 patients with xenograft valves, 28 patients with 4 degrees C stored allograft valves, and 14 patients with cryopreserved allograft valves), By multivariable analysis younger age at operation was associated with xenograft, 4 degrees C stored allograft, and cryopreserved allograft valve re-replacement, However, this effect was examined in the context of longer survival of younger patients, which increases their exposure to the risk of re-replacement as compared with that in older patients whose decreased survival reduced their probability of requiring valve re-replacement, In patients older than 60 years at the time of aortic valve replacement, the probability of re-replacement (for any reason) before death was similar for xenografts and cryopreserved allograft valves but higher for 4 degrees C stored valves, However, in patients younger than 60 years, the probability of re-replacement at any time during the remainder of the life of the patient was lower with the cryopreserved allograft valve compared with the xenograft valve and 4 degrees C stored allografts.
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Objective: To verify an association, if it exists, between obesity and blood pressure raised beyond the 90th percentile in children and adolescents, and to determine the measure of adiposity that best correlates with blood pressure in these subjects. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: A school-based study in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Participants: We selected randomly 1,403 students, aged from 6 to 18 years, from 545,046 students attending 521 public and private schools. Those selected completed the study. Main measures of outcome: We recorded the weight, height, skin fold in the triceps, subscapular, and suprailiac areas, waist and hip circumference, body-mass index, and resting systolic and diastolic blood pressures using a mercury sphygmomanometer. Results: In univariate analyses, body mass index greater or lesser than 85th percentile, measurements of skin thickness in the subscapular and suprailiac areas, and the sum of all measurements of skinfold thickness, were associated with both systolic and diastolic measurements of blood pressure. After multivariate analyses that adjusted for all measurements of adiposity except itself, and age, race, and socioeconomic state, we found that the increased body mass index was associated with a 3.6-fold increased frequency of elevated systolic measurements of blood pressure, with 9596 confidence intervals from 2.2 to 5.8, and a 2.7-fold increased frequency of elevated measurements of diastolic blood pressure, with 95% confidence intervals from 1.9 to 4.0. Conclusions: Body-mass index serves as a better predictor of elevated blood pressure among children than do local measurements of adiposity.
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Background: Sudden unexpected cardiac death (SUCD) accounts for approximately 25% of deaths from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) but is relatively poorly understood because of the difficulties involved in researching aetiology. Clinical differences between instances of SUCD and those cases of acute chest pain that survive long enough to be proven as myocardial infarction but are eventually fatal might reflect differences in aetiology. Aims: To determine the risk factors for sudden unexpected cardiac death in Tasmanian men. Methods: A population-based case-control method was used with the study population, an estimated 125,225 men aged 25-74 years living in the island State of Tasmania, Australia. The case group of 102 men who had a SUCD was validated using necropsy reports, hospital records and information provided by the usual general practitioner. Cases were matched with 204 community controls. Spouses or partners of eligible subjects answered a detailed questionnaire. Multi-variate odds ratios (ORs) for risk factors were calculated using stepwise analysis. Results: Risk factors measured included: smoking habit, treated hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of LHD, alcohol intake and exercise habits. Independent risk factors for SUCD were: history of diabetes mellitus (OR=4.2, 95% CI: 1.39, 12.81), current smoking status (OR=3.5, 95% CI: 1.80, 6.82), and family history of IHD (OR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.34, 4.92). Conclusions: Some accepted risk factors for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) also predict sudden death in men with no history of coronary disease. Efforts to reduce smoking, the incidence of diabetes mellitus and mean blood pressure must be continued as SUCD is, by definition, untreatable but is potentially avoidable in many instances.
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Background. Chagas disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Trypanosoma cruzi. Among T. cruzi-infected individuals, only a subgroup develops severe chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC); the majority remain asymptomatic. T. cruzi displays numerous ligands for the Toll-like receptors (TLRs), which are an important component of innate immunity that lead to the transcription of proinflammatory cytokines by nuclear factor-kappa B. Because proinflammatory cytokines play an important role in CCC, we hypothesized that single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the genes that encode proteins in the TLR pathway could explain differential susceptibility to CCC among T. cruzi-infected individuals. Methods. For 169 patients with CCC and 76 T. cruzi-infected, asymptomatic individuals, we analyzed SNPs by use of polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis for the genes TLR1, TLR2, TLR4, TLR5, TLR9, and MAL/TIRAP, which encodes an adaptor protein. Results. Heterozygous carriers of the MAL/TIRAP variant S180L were more prevalent in the asymptomatic group (24 [32%] of 76 subjects) than in the CCC group (21 [12%] of 169) (chi(2) = 12.6; P = .0004 [adjusted P (P(c)) = .0084]; odds ratio [OR], 0.31 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.16-0.60]). Subgroup analysis showed a stronger association when asymptomatic patients were compared with patients who had severe CCC (i.e., patients with left-ventricular ejection fraction <= 40%) (chi(2) = 11.3; P = .0008 [P(c) = .017]; OR, 0.22 [95% CI, 0.09-0.56]) than when asymptomatic patients were compared with patients who had mild CCC (i.e., patients with left-ventricular ejection fraction >40%) (chi(2) = 7.7; P = .005 [P(c) = .11]; OR, 0.33 [95% CI, 0.15-0.73]). Conclusion. T. cruzi-infected individuals who are heterozygous for the MAL/TIRAP S180L variant that leads to a decrease in signal transduction upon ligation of TLR2 or TLR4 to their respective ligand may have a lower risk of developing CCC.
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Objective. To examine possible risk factors in post-stroke depression (PSD) other than site of lesion in the brain Data sources. 191 first-ever stroke patients were examined physically shortly after their stroke and examined psychiatrically and physically 4 months post-stroke. Setting. A geographically defined segment of the metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia, from which all strokes over a course of 18 months were examined (the Perth Community Stroke Study). Measures. Psychiatric Assessment Schedule, Mini Mental State Examination, Barthel Index, Frenchay Activities Index, physical illness and sociodemographic data were collected. Post-stroke depression (PSD) included both major depression and minor depression (dysthymia without the 2-year time stipulation) according to DSM-III (American Psychiatric Association) criteria. Patients depressed at the time of the stroke were excluded. Patients. 191 first-ever stroke patients, 111M, 80F, 28% had PSD, 17% major and 11% minor depression. Results. Significant associations with PSD at 4 months were major functional impairment, living in a nursing home, being divorced and having a high pre-stroke alcohol intake (M only). There was no significant association with age, sex, social class, cognitive impairment or pre-stroke physical illness. Conclusion. Results favoured the hypothesis that depression in an unselected group of stroke patients is no more common, and of no more specific aetiology, than it is among elderly patients with other physical illness.
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Background: p63 gene is a p53 homologue that encodes proteins with transactivation, DNA-binding and tetramerisation domains. The isoforms TAp63 and TAp73 transactivate p53 target genes and induce apoptosis, whereas the isoforms Delta Np63 and Delta Np73 lack transactivation and might have dominant-negative effects in p53 family members. p63 is expressed in germinal centre lymphocytes and can be related to the development of the lymphoma, but the prognostic significance of its expression in the survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) remains unclear. Aims: To determine whether quantitative immunohistochemical (IHC) analysis of p63 protein expression correlates with CD10 antigen, Bcl-6 antigen and IRF4 antigen expression and to determine whether p63 is a surrogate predictor of overall survival in high-intermediate and high risk DLBCL populations. Methods: CD10, Bcl-6 and IRF4 expression were retrospectively evaluated by IHC in 73 samples of high intermediate and high risk DLBCL and were used to divide the lymphomas into subgroups of germinal centre B-celllike (GCB) and activate B-cell-like (ABC) DLBCL. Similarly, p63 expression was evaluated by IHC and the results were compared with subgroups of DLBCL origin and with the survival rates for these patients. Results: p63 was expressed in more than 50% of malignant cells in 11 patients and did not show correlation with subgroups of GCB-like DLBCL or ABC-like DLBCL, but p63(+) patients had better disease-free survival (DFS) than those who were negative (p = 0.01). Conclusions: p63(+) high-intermediate and high risk DLBCL patients have a better DFS than negative cases.